The Eastern Conference Finals of the Stanley Cup playoffs started last night, with Tampa Bay heading to New York to face the Rangers. Although the Lightning had a slight advantage according to the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team (54.4% chance of winning the series), home ice advantage proved too powerful, as the Rangers won decisively 6-2. Filip Chytil scored twice and Igor Shesterkin made 37 saves in net to lead New York to their seventh straight home playoff victory. With the win, we’ve now calculated that the Rangers are more likely to win the series, with a 62.1% chance of doing so.
Tonight, Edmonton travels to Colorado to play the Avalanche. Colorado won the first game of the series, and we’re now giving Colorado 76.9% chance of winning the series.
Yesterday’s Game
NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
- NY Rangers leads series 1-0
- NY Rangers now has a 62.1% chance of winning the series, up from 45.6%
Series schedule:
- June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
- June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
- June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
- June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
- June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
- June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- NY Rangers has a 62.1% chance of winning (▲16.5)
- In 4 games: 11.7% (▲5.5)
- In 5 games: 19.4% (▲6.7)
- In 6 games: 15.1% (▲3.1)
- In 7 games: 15.9% (▲1.3)
- Tampa Bay has a 37.9% chance of winning (▼16.5)
- In 7 games: 14.1% (▲1.2)
- In 6 games: 15.6% (▼2.3)
- In 5 games: 8.3% (▼5.7)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼9.6)
Today’s Game
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)
Edmonton at Colorado
- Colorado leads series 1-0
- Colorado has a 76.9% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Eastern Conference Finals
NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
NY Rangers leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: NY Rangers 62.1%, Tampa Bay 37.9%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
- Tampa Bay: 0 wins
Previous rounds:
- NY Rangers:
- defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
- defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
- Tampa Bay:
- defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
- defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
Series schedule:
- June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
- June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
- June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
- June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
- June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
- June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- NY Rangers has a 62.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 11.7%
- In 5 games: 19.4%
- In 6 games: 15.1%
- In 7 games: 15.9%
- Tampa Bay has a 37.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.1%
- In 6 games: 15.6%
- In 5 games: 8.3%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Western Conference Finals
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)
Colorado leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Colorado 76.9%, Edmonton 23.1%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
- Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- Edmonton: 1 regulation win
Previous rounds:
- Colorado:
- defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
- defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
- Edmonton:
- defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
- defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games
Series schedule:
- May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
- June 2: Edmonton at Colorado
- June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
- June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
- June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
- June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
- June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 76.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 19.3%
- In 5 games: 25.9%
- In 6 games: 17.0%
- In 7 games: 14.7%
- Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.7%
- In 6 games: 9.3%
- In 5 games: 4.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 39.7% 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 24.7% 3 New York Rangers 18.2% 4 Edmonton Oilers 17.4%
These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.