The Western Conference Finals have started, and what a lot of scoring!  Edmonton visited Colorado, and in a real barn-burner, Colorado held off the Oilers and won 8-6!  In what has been billed as a showdown between the two best offensive players in the league, Nathan MacKinnon for Colorado and Connor McDavid for Edmonton, both players scored one goal, while McDavid assisted on two others to MacKinnon’s one assist.  13 different players scored in this game, with only the Avalanche’s J.T. Compher scoring more than once (he potted two).

Colorado is the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team, and they are our favourite to win this series.  After winning this first game, we’ve now calculated that they have a 76.9% chance of winning the series, up 12.8% points from before this game.

In tonight’s game, the Eastern Conference Finals begin, with two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning travelling to New York to face the Rangers.  Although Tampa Bay hasn’t beat the Rangers in their three meetings this year, we’re giving the Lightning the edge in the series, 54.4% to 45.6%.  We’ll see how those numbers hold up after tonight’s game!

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8

• Colorado leads series 1-0
• Colorado now has a 76.9% chance of winning the series, up from 64.1%

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.9% chance of winning (▲12.8)
  • In 4 games: 19.3% (▲7.3)
  • In 5 games: 25.9% (▲6.0)
  • In 6 games: 17.0% (▲0.9)
  • In 7 games: 14.7% (▼1.4)
• Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning (▼12.8)
  • In 7 games: 9.7% (▼0.8)
  • In 6 games: 9.3% (▼3.3)
  • In 5 games: 4.0% (▼4.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼4.6)

Today’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay at NY Rangers

• Series tied 0-0
• Tampa Bay has a 54.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 45.6%, Tampa Bay 54.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 45.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 6.2%
  • In 5 games: 12.7%
  • In 6 games: 12.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.6%
• Tampa Bay has a 54.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.9%
  • In 5 games: 14.0%
  • In 4 games: 9.6%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 76.9%, Edmonton 23.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
• defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 19.3%
  • In 5 games: 25.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.7%
• Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.3%
  • In 5 games: 4.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.