The second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs have ended, and we’re on to the Conference Finals!  4 teams left, battling for that hallowed Cup.

In the Eastern Conference, no top-seeded team advanced to the Conference Final.  In the Atlantic Division, Tampa Bay surprised top-seeded Florida with a four game sweep.  Maybe it wasn’t so much of a surprise, as Tampa Bay is the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion.  In the Metropolitan Division, the New York Rangers needed seven games to beat the that division’s top seed, Carolina.

Over in the Western Conference, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team, Colorado, beat St. Louis in six games, becoming the only top seed to advance to the Conference Finals.  And in the Pacific Division, Edmonton surprised top-seeded Calgary in just 5 games to win their division.

Here’s a quick summary of the second round:

Eastern Conference:

• Atlantic Division: Tampa Bay (3rd) defeated Florida (1st) in 4 games
• Metropolitan Division: NY Rangers (2nd) defeated Carolina (1st) in 7 games

Western Conference:

• Central Division: Colorado (1st) defeated St. Louis (3rd) in 6 games
• Pacific Division: Edmonton (2nd) defeated Calgary (1st) in 5 games

Although the 2nd round of the playoffs have already started, I wasn’t able to get my playoff preview done because I had such crappy internet access on the cruise ship.  But, better late than never — here’s the McDonald NHL Power Ratings 2nd Round Playoff Preview!  You can also think of the 2nd Round as the Division Finals.

So, there’s four teams left in the playoff hunt.  We’ve run our extensive analyses and tweaked our algorithms, and have determined the following ratings and rankings of these last four teams:

Rank    Team                          Rating
 1       Colorado Avalanche            1635
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           1603
 3       Edmonton Oilers               1589
 4       New York Rangers              1581

Once again, we’re giving Colorado the best chance of winning their series, as we’ve calculated they have a 64.1% chance of winning their series over Edmonton.  In the East, our favourites are Tampa Bay, who have a 54.4% chance of beating the Rangers.  54.4 to 45.6 — that[‘s not much of a difference!  Here’s the chances we’ve calculated of each team winning the Stanley Cup:

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

The final two stats of interesting: we’ve calculated that there’s a 57.1% chance of a Western Conference team winning the Stanley Cup (up from 53.3% after the first round), and a 17.4% chance of a Canadian team winning it all (down from 18.9% after the first round).

Here’s our summary!

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 45.6%, Tampa Bay 54.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 45.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 6.2%
  • In 5 games: 12.7%
  • In 6 games: 12.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.6%
• Tampa Bay has a 54.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.9%
  • In 5 games: 14.0%
  • In 4 games: 9.6%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 64.1%, Edmonton 35.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
• defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 2: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 64.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 12.0%
  • In 5 games: 19.9%
  • In 6 games: 16.1%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Edmonton has a 35.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.5%
  • In 6 games: 12.6%
  • In 5 games: 8.1%
  • In 4 games: 4.6%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.