The Western Conference Finals have started, and what a lot of scoring!  Edmonton visited Colorado, and in a real barn-burner, Colorado held off the Oilers and won 8-6!  In what has been billed as a showdown between the two best offensive players in the league, Nathan MacKinnon for Colorado and Connor McDavid for Edmonton, both players scored one goal, while McDavid assisted on two others to MacKinnon’s one assist.  13 different players scored in this game, with only the Avalanche’s J.T. Compher scoring more than once (he potted two).

Colorado is the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team, and they are our favourite to win this series.  After winning this first game, we’ve now calculated that they have a 76.9% chance of winning the series, up 12.8% points from before this game.

In tonight’s game, the Eastern Conference Finals begin, with two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning travelling to New York to face the Rangers.  Although Tampa Bay hasn’t beat the Rangers in their three meetings this year, we’re giving the Lightning the edge in the series, 54.4% to 45.6%.  We’ll see how those numbers hold up after tonight’s game!

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8

• Colorado leads series 1-0
• Colorado now has a 76.9% chance of winning the series, up from 64.1%

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.9% chance of winning (▲12.8)
  • In 4 games: 19.3% (▲7.3)
  • In 5 games: 25.9% (▲6.0)
  • In 6 games: 17.0% (▲0.9)
  • In 7 games: 14.7% (▼1.4)
• Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning (▼12.8)
  • In 7 games: 9.7% (▼0.8)
  • In 6 games: 9.3% (▼3.3)
  • In 5 games: 4.0% (▼4.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼4.6)

Today’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay at NY Rangers

• Series tied 0-0
• Tampa Bay has a 54.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 45.6%, Tampa Bay 54.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 45.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 6.2%
  • In 5 games: 12.7%
  • In 6 games: 12.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.6%
• Tampa Bay has a 54.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.9%
  • In 5 games: 14.0%
  • In 4 games: 9.6%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 76.9%, Edmonton 23.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
• defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 19.3%
  • In 5 games: 25.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.7%
• Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.3%
  • In 5 games: 4.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

The second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs have ended, and we’re on to the Conference Finals!  4 teams left, battling for that hallowed Cup.

In the Eastern Conference, no top-seeded team advanced to the Conference Final.  In the Atlantic Division, Tampa Bay surprised top-seeded Florida with a four game sweep.  Maybe it wasn’t so much of a surprise, as Tampa Bay is the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion.  In the Metropolitan Division, the New York Rangers needed seven games to beat the that division’s top seed, Carolina.

Over in the Western Conference, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team, Colorado, beat St. Louis in six games, becoming the only top seed to advance to the Conference Finals.  And in the Pacific Division, Edmonton surprised top-seeded Calgary in just 5 games to win their division.

Here’s a quick summary of the second round:

Eastern Conference:

• Atlantic Division: Tampa Bay (3rd) defeated Florida (1st) in 4 games
• Metropolitan Division: NY Rangers (2nd) defeated Carolina (1st) in 7 games

Western Conference:

• Central Division: Colorado (1st) defeated St. Louis (3rd) in 6 games
• Pacific Division: Edmonton (2nd) defeated Calgary (1st) in 5 games

Although the 2nd round of the playoffs have already started, I wasn’t able to get my playoff preview done because I had such crappy internet access on the cruise ship.  But, better late than never — here’s the McDonald NHL Power Ratings 2nd Round Playoff Preview!  You can also think of the 2nd Round as the Division Finals.

So, there’s four teams left in the playoff hunt.  We’ve run our extensive analyses and tweaked our algorithms, and have determined the following ratings and rankings of these last four teams:

Rank    Team                          Rating
 1       Colorado Avalanche            1635
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           1603
 3       Edmonton Oilers               1589
 4       New York Rangers              1581

Once again, we’re giving Colorado the best chance of winning their series, as we’ve calculated they have a 64.1% chance of winning their series over Edmonton.  In the East, our favourites are Tampa Bay, who have a 54.4% chance of beating the Rangers.  54.4 to 45.6 — that[‘s not much of a difference!  Here’s the chances we’ve calculated of each team winning the Stanley Cup:

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

The final two stats of interesting: we’ve calculated that there’s a 57.1% chance of a Western Conference team winning the Stanley Cup (up from 53.3% after the first round), and a 17.4% chance of a Canadian team winning it all (down from 18.9% after the first round).

Here’s our summary!

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 45.6%, Tampa Bay 54.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 45.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 6.2%
  • In 5 games: 12.7%
  • In 6 games: 12.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.6%
• Tampa Bay has a 54.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.9%
  • In 5 games: 14.0%
  • In 4 games: 9.6%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 64.1%, Edmonton 35.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
• defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 2: Edmonton at Colorado
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 64.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 12.0%
  • In 5 games: 19.9%
  • In 6 games: 16.1%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Edmonton has a 35.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.5%
  • In 6 games: 12.6%
  • In 5 games: 8.1%
  • In 4 games: 4.6%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

The last game of the second round went last night.  Expecting an exciting Game 7, I was disappointed, as the New York Rangers easily defeated Carolina 6-2.  Goalie Igor Shesterkin was the star of the game for the Rangers, as he made 37 saves and shut down the Hurricanes early.  Chris Kreider scored two goals to lead the Rangers offense.  With the win, New York wins the series 4 games to 3, and will move on to face the defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning.

The next round of the playoffs begins tonight, with Edmonton travelling to Colorado to start the Western Conference final.  The Eastern Conference final starts on Wednesday.  See the McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Preview for details of the next round!

Yesterday’s Game

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

NY Rangers 6 at Carolina 2

• NY Rangers wins series 4-3

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
• May 28: Carolina 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 30: NY Rangers 6 at Carolina 2

Today’s Game

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts)

Edmonton at Colorado

• Series tied 0-0
• Colorado has a 64.1% chance of winning the series

Second Round Playoff Summary

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1591, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Florida: 2 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
• May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
• May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

NY Rangers wins series 4-3

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
• NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
• NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
• May 28: Carolina 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 30: NY Rangers 6 at Carolina 2

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 2 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado 3 at St. Louis 2

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
• Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

• Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
• May 26: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)