There was a single game in the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs last night, with Carolina in New York to face the Rangers. The Rangers needed a win, down 3 games to 2 in the best of 7 series, and they came through, winning 5-2 in front of their home crowd to force a Game 7 in Carolina on Monday.
The story of this series is Home Sweet Home — every game has been won by the home team. In fact, the Rangers have won 6 straight home games, a Ranger team record for consecutive home playoff wins in one season, and Carolina became the first team in NHL history to lose their first six road games in a postseason. Despite going 0-6 on the road, the Hurricanes are 7-0 at home in these playoffs! They’ll be glad to head home.
The series wraps up on Monday night. As the Hurricanes are playing at home, the boys in the back room have calculated that Carolina has a 58.0% chance of winning the game and the series. The winner of the series will face Tampa Bay in the Eastern Conference finals starting on Wednesday night, with Tampa Bay being on the road. The Western Conference finals start on Tuesday, with Edmonton visiting Colorado.
Yesterday’s Game
Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)
Carolina 2 at NY Rangers 5
- Series tied 3-3
- Carolina now has a 58.0% chance of winning the series, down from 78.6%
Series schedule:
- May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
- May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
- May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
- May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
- May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
- May 28: Carolina 2 at NY Rangers 5
- May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina
New simulation results:
- Carolina has a 58.0% chance of winning (▼20.6)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼48.9)
- In 7 games: 58.0% (▲28.4)
- NY Rangers has a 42.0% chance of winning (▲20.6)
- In 7 games: 42.0% (▲20.6)
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Tomorrow’s Game
Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)
NY Rangers at Carolina
- Series tied 3-3
- Carolina has a 58.0% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Eastern Conference
Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
Tampa Bay wins series 4-0
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1591, 4th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Florida: 2 regulation wins
- Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
Last round:
- Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
- Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
- May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
- May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
- May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2
Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)
Series tied 3-3
Chances of winning: Carolina 58.0%, NY Rangers 42.0%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
- NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Carolina: 3 regulation wins
- NY Rangers: 1 regulation win
Last round:
- Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
- NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
- May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
- May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
- May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
- May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
- May 28: Carolina 2 at NY Rangers 5
- May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 58.0% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 58.0%
- NY Rangers has a 42.0% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 42.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Western Conference
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)
Colorado wins series 4-2
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
- St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Colorado: 2 regulation wins
- St. Louis: 1 regulation win
Last round:
- Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
- St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
- May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
- May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
- May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
- May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
- May 27: Colorado 3 at St. Louis 2
Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)
Edmonton wins series 4-1
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
- Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Calgary: 2 regulation wins
- Edmonton: 2 regulation wins
Last round:
- Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
- Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
- May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
- May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
- May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
- May 26: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 22.6% 2 Carolina Hurricanes 15.1% 3 Florida Panthers 14.6% 4 St. Louis Blues 11.7% 5 Calgary Flames 11.6% 6 Tampa Bay Lightning 9.2% 7 New York Rangers 7.8% 8 Edmonton Oilers 7.2%
These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.