There was a single game last night in the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs, with Colorado travelling to St. Louis. Colorado held a 3 games to 2 lead in the best of 7 series. After a hard-fought battle, the game was tied 2-2 with just seconds remaining, when Darren Helm scored with 5.6 seconds left to win the game, and the series, for Colorado. J.T. Compher scored the other two goals for the Avalanche, who are the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team. They move on to the Western Conference final, where they will face the Edmonton Oilers. Game 1 goes on Tuesday, May 31st, in Colorado.
There is only a single game tonight, with Game 6 in the only remaining series in the second round of the playoffs. Carolina visit Madison Square Gardens to face the New York Rangers, with a 3-2 series lead. We’re giving the Rangers the slightest of edges in tonight’s game (51.1% chance of winning), but we’ve calculated that the Hurricanes have a 78.6% chance of winning the series. If Carolina wins tonight, there won’t be another NHL Playoff game until Tuesday when the Western Conference final starts, but if the Rangers win, Game 7 of this series will be played on Monday, May 30th.
Yesterday’s Game
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)
Colorado 3 at St. Louis 2
- Colorado wins series 4-2
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
- May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
- May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
- May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
- May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
- May 27: Colorado 3 at St. Louis 2
Today’s Game
Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)
Carolina at NY Rangers
- Carolina leads series 3-2
- Carolina has a 78.6% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Eastern Conference
Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
Tampa Bay wins series 4-0
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1591, 4th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Florida: 2 regulation wins
- Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
Last round:
- Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
- Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
- May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
- May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
- May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2
Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)
Carolina leads series 3-2
Chances of winning: Carolina 78.6%, NY Rangers 21.4%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
- NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Carolina: 3 regulation wins
- NY Rangers: 1 regulation win
Last round:
- Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
- NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
- May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
- May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
- May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
- May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
- May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers
- May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 78.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 48.9%
- In 7 games: 29.6%
- NY Rangers has a 21.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 21.4%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Western Conference
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)
Colorado wins series 4-2
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
- St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Colorado: 2 regulation wins
- St. Louis: 1 regulation win
Last round:
- Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
- St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
- May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
- May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
- May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
- May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
- May 27: Colorado 3 at St. Louis 2
Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)
Edmonton wins series 4-1
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
- Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Calgary: 2 regulation wins
- Edmonton: 2 regulation wins
Last round:
- Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
- Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
- May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
- May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
- May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
- May 26: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 22.6% 2 Carolina Hurricanes 15.1% 3 Florida Panthers 14.6% 4 St. Louis Blues 11.7% 5 Calgary Flames 11.6% 6 Tampa Bay Lightning 9.2% 7 New York Rangers 7.8% 8 Edmonton Oilers 7.2%
These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.