There were two games in the NHL Playoffs last night. In the first game, the New York Rangers travelled to Carolina, with the series tied 2 games apiece. Carolina used the home ice to their advantage in a 3-1 win, completely shutting down the Rangers, holding them to only 17 shots. The Hurricanes have now won all of their home games during the playoffs. With a 3-2 series lead, we’ve now calculated that Carolina has a 78.6% chance of winning the series, up from 57.1%. The next game goes Saturday night in New York, and we’re giving the Rangers the slightest of edges in that game, with a 51.1% chance of winning.
In the other game, THE BATTLE OF ALBERTA! Calgary hosted Edmonton, with the Oilers leading the series 3 games to 1. Connor McDavid was the big hero for Edmonton, again, as he scored 5:03 into overtime to give Edmonton a 5-4 win and a series victory. Leon Draisaitl assisted on 4 of the Edmonton goals, and he and McDavid lead the playoffs in points, both having scored 7 goals and assisting on 19 others. Draisaitl now has scored 3 or more points in five straight playoff games, an NHL record. Calgary lead 1-0 after the first period, and scored 5 minutes into the second to go up 2-0, but Edmonton battled back to tie the game by the midpoint of the second period. And then, things went crazy! Edmonton scored at 14:57, 15 seconds later, Calgary tied it up again, then took the lead 16 seconds after that, and finally, Edmonton took 40 more seconds to tie it up again! 4 goals in 1 minute 11 seconds is an NHL playoff record. That was all the scoring for the rest of regulation, and then Edmonton won it in OT. Edmonton moves on to face the winner of the Colorado / St. Louis series in the Conference Finals.
Speaking of that series, the next game goes tonight, with Colorado visiting St. Louis. Colorado has a 49.0% chance of finishing off the series tonight, and a 79.1% chance of winning the series overall.
Yesterday’s Games
Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)
NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
- Carolina leads series 3-2
- Carolina now has a 78.6% chance of winning the series, up from 57.1%
Series schedule:
- May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
- May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
- May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
- May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
- May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
- May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers
- May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Carolina has a 78.6% chance of winning (▲21.5)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 48.9% (▲20.0)
- In 7 games: 29.6% (▲1.4)
- NY Rangers has a 21.4% chance of winning (▼21.5)
- In 7 games: 21.4% (▲0.9)
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼22.5)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)
Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)
- Edmonton wins series 4-1
Series schedule:
- May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
- May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
- May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
- May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
- May 26: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)
Today’s Games
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)
Colorado at St. Louis
- Colorado leads series 3-2
- Colorado has a 79.1% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Eastern Conference
Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
Tampa Bay wins series 4-0
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1591, 4th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Florida: 2 regulation wins
- Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
Last round:
- Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
- Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
- May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
- May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
- May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2
Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)
Carolina leads series 3-2
Chances of winning: Carolina 78.6%, NY Rangers 21.4%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
- NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Carolina: 3 regulation wins
- NY Rangers: 1 regulation win
Last round:
- Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
- NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
- May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
- May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
- May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
- May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
- May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers
- May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 78.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 48.9%
- In 7 games: 29.6%
- NY Rangers has a 21.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 21.4%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Western Conference
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)
Colorado leads series 3-2
Chances of winning: Colorado 79.1%, St. Louis 20.9%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
- St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Colorado: 2 regulation wins
- St. Louis: 1 regulation win
Last round:
- Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
- St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
- May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
- May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
- May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
- May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
- May 27: Colorado at St. Louis
- May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 79.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 49.0%
- In 7 games: 30.1%
- St. Louis has a 20.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 20.9%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)
Edmonton wins series 4-1
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
- Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Calgary: 2 regulation wins
- Edmonton: 2 regulation wins
Last round:
- Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
- Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
- May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
- May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
- May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
- May 26: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 22.6% 2 Carolina Hurricanes 15.1% 3 Florida Panthers 14.6% 4 St. Louis Blues 11.7% 5 Calgary Flames 11.6% 6 Tampa Bay Lightning 9.2% 7 New York Rangers 7.8% 8 Edmonton Oilers 7.2%
These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.