There was a single game in the NHL Playoffs last night.  Colorado hosted St. Louis, and held a 3-1 games lead in the series.  Colorado came out strong, leading 2-0 after the first period, both goals courtesy of Nathan MacKinnon, then extending that lead to 3-0 early in the second.  Then, St. Louis came storming back, scoring the next three goals to even things up with 5 minutes left in the game.  Nathan MacKinnon wasn’t done yet as he scored his hat trick at 17:14 of the third on a one-man end-to-end rush, and Colorado thought the game was in the bag.  Wait a minute, said St. Louis, as Robert Thomas scored his second goal of the game to tie things up again with 56 seconds left in the game.  Nobody was able to score in the remainder of regulation time, but at 3:38 of the first overtime period, Tyler Bozak blinked the light to win the game for St. Louis and extend the series to at least a sixth game.

Colorado is still a strong McDonald NHL Power Ratings strong favourite to win this series, as we’re giving them a 79.1% chance of winning the series, although that’s down from 92.3% after Game 4.  We are giving them less than a 50% chance of winning Game 6, as St. Louis is our 51/49 favourite in that contest.

Two games tonight: the New York Rangers travel to Carolina with that series tied 2 games apiece, and Calgary hosts Edmonton, with the Oilers holding a 3-1 lead in that series.  With a victory tonight at home, Edmonton would move on to the Conference Finals — we’re giving them a 47.0% chance of doing that tonight, but an 86.5% chance of winning it overall.

Yesterday’s Games

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)

• Colorado leads series 3-2
• Colorado now has a 79.1% chance of winning the series, down from 92.3%

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 79.1% chance of winning (▼13.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼63.0)
  • In 6 games: 49.0% (▲30.9)
  • In 7 games: 30.1% (▲18.9)
• St. Louis has a 20.9% chance of winning (▲13.2)
  • In 7 games: 20.9% (▲13.2)
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

NY Rangers at Carolina

• Series tied 2-2
• Carolina has a 57.1% chance of winning the series

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton at Calgary

• Edmonton leads series 3-1
• Edmonton has a 86.5% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1591, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Florida: 2 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
• May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
• May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 57.1%, NY Rangers 42.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
• NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
• NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers at Carolina
• May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 57.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 28.9%
  • In 7 games: 28.2%
• NY Rangers has a 42.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 20.5%
  • In 6 games: 22.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Colorado 79.1%, St. Louis 20.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 2 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 79.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 49.0%
  • In 7 games: 30.1%
• St. Louis has a 20.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Calgary 13.5%, Edmonton 86.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
• Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

• Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
• May 26: Edmonton at Calgary
• May 28: Calgary at Edmonton (if necessary)
• May 30: Edmonton at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Calgary has a 13.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 13.5%
• Edmonton has a 86.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.7%
  • In 6 games: 29.7%
  • In 5 games: 47.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            22.6%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15.1%
 3       Florida Panthers              14.6%
 4       St. Louis Blues               11.7%
 5       Calgary Flames                11.6%
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning            9.2%
 7       New York Rangers               7.8%
 8       Edmonton Oilers                7.2%

These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.