Yesterday was the first pair of Game 4s in the Division Finals, and one of those series ended with a sweep!
In the first game of the day, Florida travelled to Tampa Bay, down 3 games to 0. Remember, Florida won the President’s Trophy this year. That curse seemed to work against them, as the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions shut them out 2-0, and swept the Atlantic Division finals 4 games to 0. Andrei Vasilevskiy got the shutout for the Lightning, stopping all 49 (49!!!) shots he faced. The shutout was his sixth in a series-clinching win, the most in NHL history. Tampa Bay has now won 10 straight playoff series, one of only three teams to have ever done so. The others were the New York Islanders (19 straight between 1980 and 1984), and the Montreal Canadiens (13 straight from 1975 to 1980, and 10 straight from 1955 to 1960). Tampa Bay will face the winner of the Metropolitan Division final, either Carolina or the New York Rangers.
In the other game, Colorado played in St. Louis, with Colorado leading the series 2-1. Nazem Kadri scored a hat trick for Colorado, leading the Avalanche to a 6-3 victory. We’re now giving Colorado a 92.3% chance of winning the series. Colorado is the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team, and is our favourite to win the Stanley Cup.
There are two games tonight, both Game 4s. In the first game, Carolina is in New York to play the Rangers, leading 2 games to 1. We give Carolina a 74.2% chance of winning the series. In the second game, in the Battle of Alberta, Edmonton hosts Calgary, with Edmonton holding a 2-1 lead in their series. Although Calgary is the higher ranked team, with two games remaining in Edmonton and two in Calgary, we’re giving Edmonton the edge with a 67.9% chance of winning the series.
Yesterday’s Games
Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2
- Tampa Bay wins series 4-0
Series schedule:
- May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
- May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
- May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
- May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)
Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
- Colorado leads series 3-1
- Colorado now has a 92.3% chance of winning the series, up from 74.9%
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
- May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
- May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
- May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
- May 25: St. Louis at Colorado
- May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
- May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Colorado has a 92.3% chance of winning (▲17.4)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 63.0% (▲31.5)
- In 6 games: 18.1% (▼5.4)
- In 7 games: 11.2% (▼8.7)
- St. Louis has a 7.7% chance of winning (▼17.4)
- In 7 games: 7.7% (▼6.1)
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼11.3)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Today’s Games
Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)
Carolina at NY Rangers
- Carolina leads series 2-1
- Carolina has a 74.2% chance of winning the series
Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)
Calgary at Edmonton
- Edmonton leads series 2-1
- Edmonton has a 67.9% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Eastern Conference
Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
Tampa Bay wins series 4-0
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1591, 4th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Florida: 2 regulation wins
- Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
Last round:
- Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
- Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
- May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
- May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
- May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2
Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)
Carolina leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Carolina 74.2%, NY Rangers 25.8%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
- NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Carolina: 3 regulation wins
- NY Rangers: 1 regulation win
Last round:
- Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
- NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
- May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
- May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
- May 24: Carolina at NY Rangers
- May 26: NY Rangers at Carolina
- May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers (if necessary)
- May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 74.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 30.8%
- In 6 games: 23.7%
- In 7 games: 19.7%
- NY Rangers has a 25.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.3%
- In 6 games: 11.5%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Western Conference
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)
Colorado leads series 3-1
Chances of winning: Colorado 92.3%, St. Louis 7.7%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
- St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Colorado: 2 regulation wins
- St. Louis: 1 regulation win
Last round:
- Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
- St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
- May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
- May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
- May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
- May 25: St. Louis at Colorado
- May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
- May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 92.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 63.0%
- In 6 games: 18.1%
- In 7 games: 11.2%
- St. Louis has a 7.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.7%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)
Edmonton leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Calgary 32.1%, Edmonton 67.9%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
- Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Calgary: 2 regulation wins
- Edmonton: 2 regulation wins
Last round:
- Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
- Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
- May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
- May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
- May 24: Calgary at Edmonton
- May 26: Edmonton at Calgary
- May 28: Calgary at Edmonton (if necessary)
- May 30: Edmonton at Calgary (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Calgary has a 32.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.2%
- In 7 games: 19.8%
- Edmonton has a 67.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.7%
- In 6 games: 26.9%
- In 5 games: 26.3%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 22.6% 2 Carolina Hurricanes 15.1% 3 Florida Panthers 14.6% 4 St. Louis Blues 11.7% 5 Calgary Flames 11.6% 6 Tampa Bay Lightning 9.2% 7 New York Rangers 7.8% 8 Edmonton Oilers 7.2%
These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.