Although the 2nd round of the playoffs have already started, I wasn’t able to get my playoff preview done because I had such crappy internet access on the cruise ship.  But, better late than never — here’s the McDonald NHL Power Ratings 2nd Round Playoff Preview!  You can also think of the 2nd Round as the Division Finals.

The 1st round was pretty exciting, as 5 of the series went 7 games, and 2 of those Game 7s went into overtime!  2 other series went 6 games, and one series ended in a sweep. All the teams that finished first in their division won over the wildcard teams, but two of the teams that finished third defeated 2nd-place teams, although in one of those, we had the 3rd-place team ranked higher.  And of course, Toronto disappointed their fans with a 7-game series loss to the 2-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning.

In the Eastern Conference, here were the results:

• Atlantic Division:
  • Florida (1st) defeated Washington (WC2) in 6 games
  • Tampa Bay (3rd) defeated Toronto (2nd) in 7 games
• Metropolitan Division:
  • Carolina (1st) defeated Boston (WC1) in 7 games
  • NY Rangers (2nd) defeated Pittsburgh (3rd) in 7 games

And in the Western Conference:

• Central Division:
  • Colorado (1st) defeated Nashville (WC2) in 4 games
  • St. Louis (3rd) defeated Minnesota (2nd) in 6 games
• Pacific Division:
  • Calgary (1st) defeated Dallas (WC1) in 7 games
  • Edmonton (2nd) defeated Los Angeles (3rd) in 7 games

After adjusting our ratings from the 1st round of the playoffs, Colorado remains our top-ranked team.  They are also the favourites to win the Stanley Cup, as we’ve calculated that they have a 22.6% chance of winning it all.  Only one team that was defeated in the first round remained above the remaining playoff teams, as our ratings now show Toronto would be ranked 5th.  Carolina and St. Louis are now tied for 2nd in our rankings.

There should be some good series in this next round as well!  We’re giving the biggest edge in a series to Colorado, who have only a 59% chance of defeated 2nd-ranked St. Louis, as well as Carolina, who also have a 59% chance of defeating the Rangers.  The other two series are equally close, as we’re giving Florida a 56% chance of defeating Tampa Bay, and Calgary a 56% chance of defeating Edmonton.

The Battle of Alberta!!!  That series should be exciting!  The two teams played each other 4 times this year, and in all 4 games, the home team won.  They seem pretty evenly matched, although we are giving Calgary the edge.  Unfortunately, these are the only two Canadian teams remaining.  We’ve now calculated that there’s an 18.9% chance of a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup, down from 27.2% before the first round.

Finally, we’re calculating that there’s a 46.7% chance of an Eastern Conference team winning the Stanley Cup (down from 50.4%), and a 53.3% chance of a Western Conference team winning (up from 49.6%).

Here’s our summary!

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Chances of winning: Florida 56%, Tampa Bay 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1591, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Florida: 2 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd)  in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 19: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 23: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 25: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
• May 27: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 29: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 56.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 9.1%
  • In 5 games: 16.6%
  • In 6 games: 14.6%
  • In 7 games: 15.9%
• Tampa Bay has a 43.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.7%
  • In 6 games: 15.1%
  • In 5 games: 10.6%
  • In 4 games: 6.4%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Chances of winning: Carolina 59%, NY Rangers 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
• NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
• NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers at Carolina
• May 20: NY Rangers at Carolina
• May 22: Carolina at NY Rangers
• May 24: Carolina at NY Rangers
• May 26: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 59.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 10.3%
  • In 5 games: 17.8%
  • In 6 games: 15.1%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• New York Rangers has a 40.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.2%
  • In 6 games: 14.1%
  • In 5 games: 9.6%
  • In 4 games: 5.8%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 59%, St. Louis 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 2 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 19: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 59.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 10.3%
  • In 5 games: 17.8%
  • In 6 games: 15.0%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• St. Louis has a 40.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.2%
  • In 6 games: 14.2%
  • In 5 games: 9.6%
  • In 4 games: 5.8%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Chances of winning: Calgary 56%, Edmonton 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
• Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

• Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton at Calgary
• May 20: Edmonton at Calgary
• May 22: Calgary at Edmonton
• May 24: Calgary at Edmonton
• May 26: Edmonton at Calgary (if necessary)
• May 28: Calgary at Edmonton (if necessary)
• May 30: Edmonton at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Calgary has a 56.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 9.1%
  • In 5 games: 16.7%
  • In 6 games: 14.6%
  • In 7 games: 15.9%
• Edmonton has a 43.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.7%
  • In 6 games: 15.0%
  • In 5 games: 10.5%
  • In 4 games: 6.5%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            22.6%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15.1%
 3       Florida Panthers              14.6%
 4       St. Louis Blues               11.7%
 5       Calgary Flames                11.6%
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning            9.2%
 7       New York Rangers               7.8%
 8       Edmonton Oilers                7.2%