The last of the first round Game 4s were played last night, and of the eight series, only one ended in a sweep.  And, there’s only one more that might potentially end in 5 games!  First round series aren’t usually so close, so it’s making for some exciting hockey.

In the first game of the day, Florida played in Washington, with the Capitals holding a 2-1 game lead in the series.  In a tight game, the game was tied 1-1 after one period.  No one scored in the 2nd, and in the third, Washington scored half-way through the third.  With the goalie pulled, Sam Reinhart scored with 2 minutes left to tie the game and send it into overtime.  5 minutes into the overtime period, Carter Verhaeghe scored for Florida to give them a 3-2 victory and a 2-2 tie in the series.  The President’s Trophy-winning Panthers now have a 61.7% chance of winning the series, a whopping jump of 23.1 percentage points!

In the second game, the Rangers played in Pittsburgh, down 2 games to 1.  Hoping to avenge their 7-4 loss in Game 3, New York was unsuccessful, as Pittsburgh scored 5 goals in the second period and eventually won the game 7-2.  Sidney Crosby had a goal and two assists, giving him a career playoff point total of 200.  Igor Shersterkin was pulled from the net by the Rangers for the second straight game after allowing 6 goals on 30 shots, but the Ranger coach didn’t blame him: “Total team disappointment.  It’s a team effort.”, said Gerard Gallant.  With the 3-1 series lead, we’re now giving Pittsburgh an 85.7% chance of winning the series.

The third game of the night had Colorado visiting Nashville, up 3-0 in the series.  Colorado is the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team, and the team we figure has the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  They showed why last night, as they beat the Predators 5-3 to sweep the series.  Colorado outscored Nashville 21-9 in the series, and only trailed once.  Colorado will face either St. Louis or Minnesota in the next round of the playoffs.

In the final game of the night, Calgary faced Dallas on the road, needing a win as they were trailing in the series 2-1.  They didn’t disappoint their fans watching at home, as the Flames won 4-1.  Despite giving up 3 goals (Calgary’s fourth goal was an empty-netter), goalie Jake Oettinger stopped 50 shots for Dallas!  In a night of coaching quotes, Stars coach Rick Bowness quipped, “They were really good, and we were really bad”.  The teams head back to Calgary for Game 5 with the series tied 2 games apiece.  We’re giving Calgary the edge, with a 65.9% probability of winning the series.

There are four games on tap tonight, with all four series tied 2-2!  It’s make or break time!

Yesterday’s Games

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Florida 3 at Washington 2 (OT)

• Series tied 2-2
• Florida now has a 61.7% chance of winning the series, up from 38.6%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
• May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
• May 7: Florida 1 at Washington 6
• May 9: Florida 3 at Washington 2 (OT)
• May 11: Washington at Florida
• May 13: Florida at Washington
• May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Florida has a 61.7% chance of winning (▲23.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 32.2% (▲16.7)
  • In 7 games: 29.5% (▲6.4)
• Washington has a 38.3% chance of winning (▼23.1)
  • In 7 games: 18.5% (▲4.1)
  • In 6 games: 19.8% (▼5.3)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼21.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

NY Rangers 2 at Pittsburgh 7

• Pittsburgh leads series 3-1
• Pittsburgh now has a 85.7% chance of winning the series, up from 66.5%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
• May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 7: NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7
• May 9: NY Rangers 2 at Pittsburgh 7
• May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
• May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 14.3% chance of winning (▼19.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼13.0)
  • In 7 games: 14.3% (▼6.2)
• Pittsburgh has a 85.7% chance of winning (▲19.2)
  • In 7 games: 9.9% (▼4.7)
  • In 6 games: 29.7% (▲3.2)
  • In 5 games: 46.0% (▲20.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado 5 at Nashville 3

• Colorado wins series 4-0

Series schedule:

• May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
• May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• May 7: Colorado 7 at Nashville 3
• May 9: Colorado 5 at Nashville 3

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Calgary 4 at Dallas 1

• Series tied 2-2
• Calgary now has a 65.9% chance of winning the series, up from 43.9%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
• May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
• May 7: Calgary 2 at Dallas 4
• May 9: Calgary 4 at Dallas 1
• May 11: Dallas at Calgary
• May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
• May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Calgary has a 65.9% chance of winning (▲22.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 35.8% (▲17.2)
  • In 7 games: 30.2% (▲4.9)
• Dallas has a 34.1% chance of winning (▼22.0)
  • In 7 games: 16.9% (▲2.8)
  • In 6 games: 17.1% (▼6.2)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼18.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Boston at Carolina

• Series tied 2-2
• Carolina has a 58.5% chance of winning the series

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay at Toronto

• Series tied 2-2
• Toronto has a 59.2% chance of winning the series

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

St. Louis at Minnesota

• Series tied 2-2
• Minnesota has a 51.8% chance of winning the series

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Los Angeles at Edmonton

• Series tied 2-2
• Edmonton has a 57.5% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Florida 61.7%, Washington 38.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1581, 6th overall
• Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
• Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 7-3-0
• Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
• May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
• May 7: Florida 1 at Washington 6
• May 9: Florida 3 at Washington 2 (OT)
• May 11: Washington at Florida
• May 13: Florida at Washington
• May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 61.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 32.2%
  • In 7 games: 29.5%
• Washington has a 38.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.5%
  • In 6 games: 19.8%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Toronto 59.2%, Tampa Bay 40.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
• Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-2-1
• Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

• May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
• May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
• May 6: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2
• May 8: Toronto 3 at Tampa Bay 7
• May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
• May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay
• May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 59.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 30.6%
  • In 7 games: 28.6%
• Tampa Bay has a 40.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.1%
  • In 6 games: 21.7%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 58.5%, Boston 41.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
• Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 8-2-0
• Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

• May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
• May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
• May 6: Carolina 2 at Boston 4
• May 8: Carolina 2 at Boston 5
• May 10: Boston at Carolina
• May 12: Carolina at Boston
• May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 58.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 30.0%
  • In 7 games: 28.5%
• Boston has a 41.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.9%
  • In 6 games: 21.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 14.3%, Pittsburgh 85.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
• Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
• Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• NY Rangers: 6-4-0
• Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

• May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
• May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 7: NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7
• May 9: NY Rangers 2 at Pittsburgh 7
• May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
• May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 14.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.3%
• Pittsburgh has a 85.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.9%
  • In 6 games: 29.7%
  • In 5 games: 46.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
• Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win
• Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 4-5-1
• Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
• May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• May 7: Colorado 7 at Nashville 3
• May 9: Colorado 5 at Nashville 3

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Minnesota 51.8%, St. Louis 48.2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
• St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Minnesota: 0 wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Minnesota: 8-1-1
• St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
• May 6: Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 8: Minnesota 2 at St. Louis 5
• May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
• May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis
• May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Minnesota has a 51.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 25.3%
  • In 7 games: 26.4%
• St. Louis has a 48.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 21.7%
  • In 6 games: 26.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Calgary 65.9%, Dallas 34.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
• Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Calgary: 6-2-2
• Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
• May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
• May 7: Calgary 2 at Dallas 4
• May 9: Calgary 4 at Dallas 1
• May 11: Dallas at Calgary
• May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
• May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Calgary has a 65.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 35.8%
  • In 7 games: 30.2%
• Dallas has a 34.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 16.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Edmonton 57.5%, Los Angeles 42.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
• Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-2-1
• Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
• May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
• May 6: Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2
• May 8: Edmonton 0 at Los Angeles 4
• May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
• May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles
• May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 57.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 28.9%
  • In 7 games: 28.5%
• Los Angeles has a 42.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.9%
  • In 6 games: 22.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%