Yesterday was the start of the Game 4s in the first round playoffs, and after 4 games, each of those series is tied 2 games apiece!  So, we’re down to a best-of-3 in those.

In the first game of the day, Boston defeated Carolina 5-2.  Brad Marchand was the star of the game, scoring twice and assisting on the other three Bruin goals.  Carolina lead 2-1 early in the second period, but it was all Boston after that, as they scored 4 straight unanswered goals, the final one coming on an empty net.  Only three players in Bruins history have scored more points in a playoff game, all with six: Phil Esposito in 1969, Rick Middleton in 1983, and David Pastrnak in 2018.  Despite the Boston win, Carolina is still the favourite to win the series, with a 58.5% chance, as two of the remaining three games will be played in Carolina.

The second game saw Minnesota visiting St. Louis.  After a split in Minnesota, St. Louis lost in the last game at home, so they were desperate for a win, and they came through with a 5-2 victory.  David Perron and Jordan Kyrou each scored two goals for the Blues, and Jordan Binnington got the win in the net, his first playoff win after losing nine straight since getting the win in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals in 2019.  With two of the next three games being played back in Minnesota, we’re giving the Wild the slightest of edges to take the series, 51.8% to 48.2%!

The third game of the day featured Tampa Bay at home against Toronto.  Game 3 in the series saw Toronto win 5-2, but this was Tampa Bay’s day, as they skated to a 7-3 victory.  Tampa Bay came out hard, scoring three times in the first 8 minutes, and led 5-0 after two periods before Toronto finally got on track.  Ross Colton scored twice for the Lightning, and William Nylander also scored twice for Toronto, his first goals of the playoffs.  The teams head back to Toronto, with the boys in the back room calculating that Toronto still has a 59.2% chance of winning the series.

And in the final game of the day, Edmonton played in Los Angeles.  After getting thumped 8-2 in the previous game, Los Angeles looked for revenge, and got it, thanks to Jonathan Quick’s shutout in net.  The final score was 4-0 LA, despite Mike Smith making 42 saves in net for Edmonton.  Game 5 goes in Edmonton, and we’re giving the Oilers a 57.5% chance of winning the series.

Four more Game 4s go tonight, with only the Nashville vs. Colorado series potentially ending tonight, as the Avalanche hold a 3 games to 0 lead.  We’ve calculated that Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning the series, and a 61.0% chance of wrapping it up tonight.

Yesterday’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina 2 at Boston 5

• Series tied 2-2
• Carolina now has a 58.5% chance of winning the series, down from 75.6%

Series schedule:

• May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
• May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
• May 6: Carolina 2 at Boston 4
• May 8: Carolina 2 at Boston 5
• May 10: Boston at Carolina
• May 12: Carolina at Boston
• May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 58.5% chance of winning (▼17.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼32.0)
  • In 6 games: 30.0% (▲6.0)
  • In 7 games: 28.5% (▲8.9)
• Boston has a 41.5% chance of winning (▲17.1)
  • In 7 games: 19.9% (▲6.3)
  • In 6 games: 21.6% (▲10.8)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Minnesota 2 at St. Louis 5

• Series tied 2-2
• Minnesota now has a 51.8% chance of winning the series, down from 69.3%

Series schedule:

• May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
• May 6: Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 8: Minnesota 2 at St. Louis 5
• May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
• May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis
• May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Minnesota has a 51.8% chance of winning (▼17.5)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼27.2)
  • In 6 games: 25.3% (▲3.2)
  • In 7 games: 26.4% (▲6.4)
• St. Louis has a 48.2% chance of winning (▲17.5)
  • In 7 games: 21.7% (▲5.3)
  • In 6 games: 26.5% (▲12.2)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto 3 at Tampa Bay 7

• Series tied 2-2
• Toronto now has a 59.2% chance of winning the series, down from 76.3%

Series schedule:

• May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
• May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
• May 6: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2
• May 8: Toronto 3 at Tampa Bay 7
• May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
• May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay
• May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Toronto has a 59.2% chance of winning (▼17.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼32.6)
  • In 6 games: 30.6% (▲6.4)
  • In 7 games: 28.6% (▲9.1)
• Tampa Bay has a 40.8% chance of winning (▲17.1)
  • In 7 games: 19.1% (▲6.0)
  • In 6 games: 21.7% (▲11.1)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Edmonton 0 at Los Angeles 4

• Series tied 2-2
• Edmonton now has a 57.5% chance of winning the series, down from 74.9%

Series schedule:

• May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
• May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
• May 6: Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2
• May 8: Edmonton 0 at Los Angeles 4
• May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
• May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles
• May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 57.5% chance of winning (▼17.4)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼31.5)
  • In 6 games: 28.9% (▲5.3)
  • In 7 games: 28.5% (▲8.7)
• Los Angeles has a 42.5% chance of winning (▲17.4)
  • In 7 games: 19.9% (▲6.1)
  • In 6 games: 22.6% (▲11.3)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Florida at Washington

• Washington leads series 2-1
• Washington has a 61.4% chance of winning the series

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

NY Rangers at Pittsburgh

• Pittsburgh leads series 2-1
• Pittsburgh has a 66.5% chance of winning the series

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado at Nashville

• Colorado leads series 3-0
• Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning the series

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Calgary at Dallas

• Dallas leads series 2-1
• Dallas has a 56.1% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Washington leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Florida 38.6%, Washington 61.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1581, 6th overall
• Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
• Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 7-3-0
• Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
• May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
• May 7: Florida 1 at Washington 6
• May 9: Florida at Washington
• May 11: Washington at Florida
• May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
• May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 38.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.5%
  • In 7 games: 23.1%
• Washington has a 61.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.4%
  • In 6 games: 25.1%
  • In 5 games: 21.8%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Toronto 59.2%, Tampa Bay 40.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
• Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-2-1
• Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

• May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
• May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
• May 6: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2
• May 8: Toronto 3 at Tampa Bay 7
• May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
• May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay
• May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 59.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 30.6%
  • In 7 games: 28.6%
• Tampa Bay has a 40.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.1%
  • In 6 games: 21.7%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 58.5%, Boston 41.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
• Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 8-2-0
• Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

• May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
• May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
• May 6: Carolina 2 at Boston 4
• May 8: Carolina 2 at Boston 5
• May 10: Boston at Carolina
• May 12: Carolina at Boston
• May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 58.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 30.0%
  • In 7 games: 28.5%
• Boston has a 41.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.9%
  • In 6 games: 21.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 33.5%, Pittsburgh 66.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
• Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
• Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• NY Rangers: 6-4-0
• Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

• May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
• May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 7: NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7
• May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
• May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
• May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 33.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 13.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.5%
• Pittsburgh has a 66.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.6%
  • In 6 games: 26.5%
  • In 5 games: 25.3%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 98.2%, Nashville 1.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
• Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win
• Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 4-5-1
• Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
• May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• May 7: Colorado 7 at Nashville 3
• May 9: Colorado at Nashville
• May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 61.0%
  • In 5 games: 26.9%
  • In 6 games: 6.8%
  • In 7 games: 3.5%
• Nashville has a 1.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 1.8%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Minnesota 51.8%, St. Louis 48.2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
• St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Minnesota: 0 wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Minnesota: 8-1-1
• St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
• May 6: Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 8: Minnesota 2 at St. Louis 5
• May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
• May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis
• May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Minnesota has a 51.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 25.3%
  • In 7 games: 26.4%
• St. Louis has a 48.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 21.7%
  • In 6 games: 26.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Dallas leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Calgary 43.9%, Dallas 56.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
• Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Calgary: 6-2-2
• Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
• May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
• May 7: Calgary 2 at Dallas 4
• May 9: Calgary at Dallas
• May 11: Dallas at Calgary
• May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
• May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Calgary has a 43.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 18.6%
  • In 7 games: 25.3%
• Dallas has a 56.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.1%
  • In 6 games: 23.3%
  • In 5 games: 18.7%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Edmonton 57.5%, Los Angeles 42.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
• Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-2-1
• Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
• May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
• May 6: Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2
• May 8: Edmonton 0 at Los Angeles 4
• May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
• May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles
• May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 57.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 28.9%
  • In 7 games: 28.5%
• Los Angeles has a 42.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.9%
  • In 6 games: 22.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%