Yesterday, the rest of the Game 3s were played.  Things seem pretty even in most of the series, as 7 of the 8 are currently sitting at 2 games to 1, with only one series possibly ending in a sweep.

The President’s Trophy curse reared its ugly head again in the first game, as Florida lost their game to Washington, 6-1, to go down 2 games to 1.  Florida scored first, just 2:45 into the first period, but that was it for them, as Washington scored 1 goal in the first period, 2 in the second, and 3 in the third to take the victory.  Ilya Samsonov got the win in net for the Capitals, his first playoff win.  Washington now has a 61.4% chance of winning the series, but you can’t count Florida out yet!

In the second game, Colorado dominated Nashville 7-3 to take a 3-0 lead in that series.  Gabriel Landeskog scored 2 goals and assisted on 2 others to lead the Avalanche.  Colorado goalie Darcy Kuemper was injured in the first period as he took a stick in the eye, but Pavel Francouz, his replacement, was solid to seal the win.  We don’t think there’s much chance for Nashville anymore, as the boys in the back room have calculated that Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning the series, and a 61.0% chance of sweeping.

The third game saw the New York Rangers travel to Pittsburgh.  The Penguins weren’t very congenial hosts, as they defeated the Rangers 7-4.  The game was much closer than the score would indicate, though.  The Penguins scored first, but the Rangers tied it.  Pittsburgh scored three more times in the first period to go up 4-1, but the Rangers came charging back in the second, scoring three of their own to even the game going into the 3rd period.  Pittsburgh broke the tie with a goal 11 minutes into the third, and iced the game by scoring two empty-netters at the end.  We’re now giving Pittsburgh, who finished 3rd in the Metropolitan Division behind the 2nd place Rangers, a 66.5% chance of winning the series.

In the final game of the night, Dallas headed home after splitting the two games in Calgary.  Home ice was good to the Stars, as they won 4-2.  Joe Pavelski scored twice for the Stars, including the game winner, his second game winner of the series.  Calgary has only scored three goals in the three games in this series, but are only down two games to one.  The algorithms now give Dallas a slight edge in this series, with a 56.1% chance of winning it.

Yesterday’s Games

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Florida 1 at Washington 6

• Washington leads series 2-1
• Washington now has a 61.4% chance of winning the series, up from 41.1%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
• May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
• May 7: Florida 1 at Washington 6
• May 9: Florida at Washington
• May 11: Washington at Florida
• May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
• May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Florida has a 38.6% chance of winning (▼20.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼17.8)
  • In 6 games: 15.5% (▼4.6)
  • In 7 games: 23.1% (▲2.1)
• Washington has a 61.4% chance of winning (▲20.3)
  • In 7 games: 14.4% (▲1.1)
  • In 6 games: 25.1% (▲8.0)
  • In 5 games: 21.8% (▲11.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado 7 at Nashville 3

• Colorado leads series 3-0
• Colorado now has a 98.2% chance of winning the series, up from 92.2%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
• May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• May 7: Colorado 7 at Nashville 3
• May 9: Colorado at Nashville
• May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning (▲6.0)
  • In 4 games: 61.0% (▲24.4)
  • In 5 games: 26.9% (▼5.0)
  • In 6 games: 6.8% (▼7.5)
  • In 7 games: 3.5% (▼5.8)
• Nashville has a 1.8% chance of winning (▼6.0)
  • In 7 games: 1.8% (▼3.2)
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼2.8)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7

• Pittsburgh leads series 2-1
• Pittsburgh now has a 66.5% chance of winning the series, up from 47.4%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
• May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 7: NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7
• May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
• May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
• May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 33.5% chance of winning (▼19.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼14.5)
  • In 6 games: 13.0% (▼5.0)
  • In 7 games: 20.5% (▲0.3)
• Pittsburgh has a 66.5% chance of winning (▲19.1)
  • In 7 games: 14.6% (▲0.1)
  • In 6 games: 26.5% (▲7.0)
  • In 5 games: 25.3% (▲11.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Calgary 2 at Dallas 4

• Dallas leads series 2-1
• Dallas now has a 56.1% chance of winning the series, up from 35.4%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
• May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
• May 7: Calgary 2 at Dallas 4
• May 9: Calgary at Dallas
• May 11: Dallas at Calgary
• May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
• May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Calgary has a 43.9% chance of winning (▼20.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼20.9)
  • In 6 games: 18.6% (▼3.6)
  • In 7 games: 25.3% (▲3.9)
• Dallas has a 56.1% chance of winning (▲20.7)
  • In 7 games: 14.1% (▲2.0)
  • In 6 games: 23.3% (▲8.5)
  • In 5 games: 18.7% (▲10.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina at Boston

• Carolina leads series 2-1
• Carolina has a 75.6% chance of winning the series

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Minnesota at St. Louis

• Minnesota leads series 2-1
• Minnesota has a 69.3% chance of winning the series

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto at Tampa Bay

• Toronto leads series 2-1
• Toronto has a 76.3% chance of winning the series

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Edmonton at Los Angeles

• Edmonton leads series 2-1
• Edmonton has a 74.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Washington leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Florida 38.6%, Washington 61.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1581, 6th overall
• Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
• Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 7-3-0
• Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
• May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
• May 7: Florida 1 at Washington 6
• May 9: Florida at Washington
• May 11: Washington at Florida
• May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
• May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 38.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.5%
  • In 7 games: 23.1%
• Washington has a 61.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.4%
  • In 6 games: 25.1%
  • In 5 games: 21.8%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 76.3%, Tampa Bay 23.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
• Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-2-1
• Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

• May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
• May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
• May 6: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2
• May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
• May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
• May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 76.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 32.6%
  • In 6 games: 24.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.5%
• Tampa Bay has a 23.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.1%
  • In 6 games: 10.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 75.6%, Boston 24.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
• Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 8-2-0
• Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

• May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
• May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
• May 6: Carolina 2 at Boston 4
• May 8: Carolina at Boston
• May 10: Boston at Carolina
• May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
• May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 75.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 32.0%
  • In 6 games: 24.0%
  • In 7 games: 19.6%
• Boston has a 24.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.6%
  • In 6 games: 10.8%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 33.5%, Pittsburgh 66.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
• Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
• Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• NY Rangers: 6-4-0
• Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

• May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
• May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 7: NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7
• May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
• May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
• May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 33.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 13.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.5%
• Pittsburgh has a 66.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.6%
  • In 6 games: 26.5%
  • In 5 games: 25.3%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 98.2%, Nashville 1.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
• Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win
• Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 4-5-1
• Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
• May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• May 7: Colorado 7 at Nashville 3
• May 9: Colorado at Nashville
• May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 61.0%
  • In 5 games: 26.9%
  • In 6 games: 6.8%
  • In 7 games: 3.5%
• Nashville has a 1.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 1.8%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Minnesota leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Minnesota 69.3%, St. Louis 30.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
• St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Minnesota: 0 wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Minnesota: 8-1-1
• St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
• May 6: Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
• May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
• May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Minnesota has a 69.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 27.2%
  • In 6 games: 22.1%
  • In 7 games: 20.0%
• St. Louis has a 30.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 16.4%
  • In 6 games: 14.3%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Dallas leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Calgary 43.9%, Dallas 56.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
• Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Calgary: 6-2-2
• Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
• May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
• May 7: Calgary 2 at Dallas 4
• May 9: Calgary at Dallas
• May 11: Dallas at Calgary
• May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
• May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Calgary has a 43.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 18.6%
  • In 7 games: 25.3%
• Dallas has a 56.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.1%
  • In 6 games: 23.3%
  • In 5 games: 18.7%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Edmonton leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Edmonton 74.9%, Los Angeles 25.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
• Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-2-1
• Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
• May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
• May 6: Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2
• May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
• May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
• May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
• May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 74.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 31.5%
  • In 6 games: 23.6%
  • In 7 games: 19.8%
• Los Angeles has a 25.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.8%
  • In 6 games: 11.3%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%