Yesterday was the first day of Game 3s, where the lower-seeded team is now the home team.  After after those games, all of yesterday’s series are at 2-1!  We’ll see if that continues tonight.

In the first game, Carolina visited Boston with a 2-0 series lead.  But, Boston came through at home with a 4-2 victory.  Brad Marchand had a goal and two assists to lead the Bruins, and goalie Jeremy Swayman got his first playoff victory in his first playoff start.  Marchand’s goal gives him 46 career playoff goals for Boston, tying Phil Esposito for 3rd in Boston history.  Despite the loss, Carolina still holds a 2-1 series lead, and we’re giving them a 75.6% chance of winning the series.

In the second game, Toronto travelled to Tampa Bay with the series knotted at 1.  Toronto scored the first 3 goals of the game, but Tampa Bay came storming back, making it 3-2 in the third.  In a high-pressure third, Jack Campbell made a brilliant save off a shot from Steven Stamkos on a power play to hold the lead.  In the last two minutes, Toronto scored two empty net goals to seal the victory.  With the win, we’re now giving Toronto a 76.3% chance of winning the series.

Over to the Western Conference, Minnesota and St. Louis faced off in St. Louis with their series also tied at 1.  Minnesota scored early (1st goal 39 seconds into the game) and often, taking a 4-0 lead before St. Louis got on the board on a powerplay goal early in the 3rd.  But, Minnesota scored again and St. Louis couldn’t, and this one ended 5-1.  Marc-Andre Fleury got the win for Minnesota, his 92nd playoff win, tying him for 3rd in NHL history with Grant Fuhr.  He’s a ways behind the leader, Patrick Roy, who finished his career with 151 wins!  Despite being the 2nd Wild Card team in the West, we’re giving Minnesota a 69.3% chance of winning the series.

In the final game of the night, Edmonton thumped Los Angeles 8-2.  Evander Kane scored a hat trick for the Oilers, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman each had a pair themselves.  Kings goalie Jonathan Quick allowed 4 goals on 17 shots before being replaced by Cal Peterson in the second period, who didn’t do much better, allowing the final 4 goals on 20 shots.  The boys in the back room have calculated that Edmonton now has a 74.9% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina 2 at Boston 4

• Carolina leads series 2-1
• Carolina now has a 75.6% chance of winning the series, down from 86.7%

Series schedule:

• May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
• May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
• May 6: Carolina 2 at Boston 4
• May 8: Carolina at Boston
• May 10: Boston at Carolina
• May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
• May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 75.6% chance of winning (▼11.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼29.1)
  • In 5 games: 32.0% (▲2.0)
  • In 6 games: 24.0% (▲8.3)
  • In 7 games: 19.6% (▲7.8)
• Boston has a 24.4% chance of winning (▲11.1)
  • In 7 games: 13.6% (▲5.4)
  • In 6 games: 10.8% (▲5.7)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2

• Toronto leads series 2-1
• Toronto now has a 76.3% chance of winning the series, up from 56.0%

Series schedule:

• May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
• May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
• May 6: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2
• May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
• May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
• May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Toronto has a 76.3% chance of winning (▲20.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 32.6% (▲16.5)
  • In 6 games: 24.2% (▲5.0)
  • In 7 games: 19.5% (▼1.2)
• Tampa Bay has a 23.7% chance of winning (▼20.3)
  • In 7 games: 13.1% (▼0.7)
  • In 6 games: 10.6% (▼7.7)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼11.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1

• Minnesota leads series 2-1
• Minnesota now has a 69.3% chance of winning the series, up from 46.1%

Series schedule:

• May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
• May 6: Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
• May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
• May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Minnesota has a 69.3% chance of winning (▲23.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 27.2% (▲15.5)
  • In 6 games: 22.1% (▲6.6)
  • In 7 games: 20.0% (▲1.1)
• St. Louis has a 30.7% chance of winning (▼23.2)
  • In 7 games: 16.4% (▲1.1)
  • In 6 games: 14.3% (▼7.9)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼16.4)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2

• Edmonton leads series 2-1
• Edmonton now has a 74.9% chance of winning the series, up from 53.1%

Series schedule:

• May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
• May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
• May 6: Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2
• May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
• May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
• May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
• May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 74.9% chance of winning (▲21.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 31.5% (▲16.7)
  • In 6 games: 23.6% (▲5.7)
  • In 7 games: 19.8% (▼0.6)
• Los Angeles has a 25.1% chance of winning (▼21.8)
  • In 7 games: 13.8% (▼0.4)
  • In 6 games: 11.3% (▼8.2)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼13.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Florida at Washington

• Series tied 1-1
• Florida has a 58.9% chance of winning the series

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado at Nashville

• Colorado leads series 2-0
• Colorado has a 92.2% chance of winning the series

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

NY Rangers at Pittsburgh

• Series tied 1-1
• NY Rangers has a 52.6% chance of winning the series

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Calgary at Dallas

• Series tied 1-1
• Calgary has a 64.6% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Florida 58.9%, Washington 41.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1581, 6th overall
• Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
• Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 7-3-0
• Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
• May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
• May 7: Florida at Washington
• May 9: Florida at Washington
• May 11: Washington at Florida
• May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
• May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 58.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 17.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.1%
  • In 7 games: 21.0%
• Washington has a 41.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.3%
  • In 6 games: 17.1%
  • In 5 games: 10.7%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 76.3%, Tampa Bay 23.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
• Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-2-1
• Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

• May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
• May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
• May 6: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2
• May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
• May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
• May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 76.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 32.6%
  • In 6 games: 24.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.5%
• Tampa Bay has a 23.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.1%
  • In 6 games: 10.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 75.6%, Boston 24.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
• Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 8-2-0
• Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

• May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
• May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
• May 6: Carolina 2 at Boston 4
• May 8: Carolina at Boston
• May 10: Boston at Carolina
• May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
• May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 75.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 32.0%
  • In 6 games: 24.0%
  • In 7 games: 19.6%
• Boston has a 24.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.6%
  • In 6 games: 10.8%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 52.6%, Pittsburgh 47.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
• Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
• Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• NY Rangers: 6-4-0
• Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

• May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
• May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
• May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
• May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
• May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 52.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 14.5%
  • In 6 games: 18.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.2%
• Pittsburgh has a 47.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.5%
  • In 6 games: 19.5%
  • In 5 games: 13.4%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 92.2%, Nashville 7.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
• Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win
• Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 4-5-1
• Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
• May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• May 7: Colorado at Nashville
• May 9: Colorado at Nashville
• May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 92.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 36.6%
  • In 5 games: 31.9%
  • In 6 games: 14.3%
  • In 7 games: 9.3%
• Nashville has a 7.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 5.0%
  • In 6 games: 2.8%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Minnesota leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Minnesota 69.3%, St. Louis 30.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
• St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Minnesota: 0 wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Minnesota: 8-1-1
• St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
• May 6: Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
• May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
• May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Minnesota has a 69.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 27.2%
  • In 6 games: 22.1%
  • In 7 games: 20.0%
• St. Louis has a 30.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 16.4%
  • In 6 games: 14.3%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Calgary 64.6%, Dallas 35.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
• Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Calgary: 6-2-2
• Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
• May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
• May 7: Calgary at Dallas
• May 9: Calgary at Dallas
• May 11: Dallas at Calgary
• May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
• May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Calgary has a 64.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 22.2%
  • In 7 games: 21.4%
• Dallas has a 35.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.1%
  • In 6 games: 14.8%
  • In 5 games: 8.6%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Edmonton leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Edmonton 74.9%, Los Angeles 25.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
• Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-2-1
• Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
• May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
• May 6: Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2
• May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
• May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
• May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
• May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 74.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 31.5%
  • In 6 games: 23.6%
  • In 7 games: 19.8%
• Los Angeles has a 25.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.8%
  • In 6 games: 11.3%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%