The second set of games in the first playoff round have been completed.  6 of the 8 series are tied 1 game apiece!  It’s making for some exciting hockey!

In the first game last night, Igor Shesterkin was the star for the Rangers again, as he was solid in goal in a winning effort, stopping 39 shots in the 5-2 victory over Pittsburgh.  With the win, the Rangers tied the series, and have now become the McDonald NHL Power Ratings favourite again, as we’re now giving them a slight 52.6 / 47.4 edge to take the series.  The series heads to Pittsburgh for Games 3 and 4.

The second game featured Florida and Washington.  Florida, this year’s President’s Trophy winner, wanted to put Tuesday’s defeat behind them, and they did, winning handily, 5-1.  Five different players scored for the Panthers.  With the series tied 1-1, the teams head to Washington for Game 3.  We’ve calculated that, despite the next two games being on the road for them, Florida has a 58.9% chance of winning this series.

After being solidly beat in Game 1, Nashville looked to even their series against the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team, the Colorado Avalanche.  They give it their best effort, but alas, it wasn’t quite enough as Colorado took the game 2-1 in overtime.  Cale Makar scored the winner for the Avalanche, as he led all players with 12 shots on goal!  That set a record for the Avalanche, and their predecessors the Quebec Nordiques, as the most shots by one player in a playoff game.  For Nashville, goalie Connor Ingram was busy, as he faced 51 shots, stopping 21 in the second period and 13 in the third!  With a 2-0 lead, we’re now giving Colorado a 92.2% chance of winning the series, as well as a 36.6% chance of a sweep.

In the final game of the night, Dallas shut out Calgary 2-0 to even their series.  Jake Oettinger got the shutout for the Stars, stopping all 29 of Calgary’s shots.  Joe Pavelski scored the first goal for Dallas, becoming the oldest player to score for the Stars in the playoffs since 2008.  He’s 37 years old.  Dallas’ other goal came on an empty net with just over a minute remaining to put the game out of reach.  With the series tied, we’re still giving Calgary the edge, with a 64.6% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5

• Series tied 1-1
• NY Rangers now has a 52.6% chance of winning the series, up from 37.8%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
• May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
• May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
• May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
• May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 52.6% chance of winning (▲14.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 14.5% (▲6.2)
  • In 6 games: 18.0% (▲5.3)
  • In 7 games: 20.2% (▲3.4)
• Pittsburgh has a 47.4% chance of winning (▼14.8)
  • In 7 games: 14.5% (▲2.5)
  • In 6 games: 19.5% (▲0.5)
  • In 5 games: 13.4% (▼3.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼14.5)

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Washington 1 at Florida 5

• Series tied 1-1
• Florida now has a 58.9% chance of winning the series, up from 44.3%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
• May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
• May 7: Florida at Washington
• May 9: Florida at Washington
• May 11: Washington at Florida
• May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
• May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Florida has a 58.9% chance of winning (▲14.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 17.8% (▲7.1)
  • In 6 games: 20.1% (▲5.1)
  • In 7 games: 21.0% (▲2.5)
• Washington has a 41.1% chance of winning (▼14.6)
  • In 7 games: 13.3% (▲1.8)
  • In 6 games: 17.1% (▼0.6)
  • In 5 games: 10.7% (▼3.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼12.1)

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)

• Colorado leads series 2-0
• Colorado now has a 92.2% chance of winning the series, up from 84.4%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
• May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• May 7: Colorado at Nashville
• May 9: Colorado at Nashville
• May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 92.2% chance of winning (▲7.8)
  • In 4 games: 36.6% (▲11.3)
  • In 5 games: 31.9% (▲2.8)
  • In 6 games: 14.3% (▼2.7)
  • In 7 games: 9.3% (▼3.7)
• Nashville has a 7.8% chance of winning (▼7.8)
  • In 7 games: 5.0% (▼2.0)
  • In 6 games: 2.8% (▼3.4)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼2.5)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Dallas 2 at Calgary 0

• Series tied 1-1
• Calgary now has a 64.6% chance of winning the series, down from 82.5%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
• May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
• May 7: Calgary at Dallas
• May 9: Calgary at Dallas
• May 11: Dallas at Calgary
• May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
• May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Calgary has a 64.6% chance of winning (▼17.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼23.6)
  • In 5 games: 20.9% (▼7.3)
  • In 6 games: 22.2% (▲5.1)
  • In 7 games: 21.4% (▲7.8)
• Dallas has a 35.4% chance of winning (▲17.9)
  • In 7 games: 12.1% (▲4.4)
  • In 6 games: 14.8% (▲7.8)
  • In 5 games: 8.6% (▲5.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina at Boston

• Carolina leads series 2-0
• Carolina has a 86.7% chance of winning the series

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto at Tampa Bay

• Series tied 1-1
• Toronto has a 56.0% chance of winning the series

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Minnesota at St. Louis

• Series tied 1-1
• St. Louis has a 53.9% chance of winning the series

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Edmonton at Los Angeles

• Series tied 1-1
• Edmonton has a 53.1% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Florida 58.9%, Washington 41.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1581, 6th overall
• Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
• Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 7-3-0
• Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
• May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
• May 7: Florida at Washington
• May 9: Florida at Washington
• May 11: Washington at Florida
• May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
• May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 58.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 17.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.1%
  • In 7 games: 21.0%
• Washington has a 41.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.3%
  • In 6 games: 17.1%
  • In 5 games: 10.7%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 56.0%, Tampa Bay 44.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
• Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-2-1
• Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

• May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
• May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
• May 6: Toronto at Tampa Bay
• May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
• May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
• May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 56.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 16.1%
  • In 6 games: 19.2%
  • In 7 games: 20.7%
• Tampa Bay has a 44.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.8%
  • In 6 games: 18.3%
  • In 5 games: 11.9%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 86.7%, Boston 13.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
• Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 8-2-0
• Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

• May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
• May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
• May 6: Carolina at Boston
• May 8: Carolina at Boston
• May 10: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
• May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 86.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 29.1%
  • In 5 games: 30.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.7%
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
• Boston has a 13.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.2%
  • In 6 games: 5.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 52.6%, Pittsburgh 47.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
• Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
• Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• NY Rangers: 6-4-0
• Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

• May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
• May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
• May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
• May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
• May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 52.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 14.5%
  • In 6 games: 18.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.2%
• Pittsburgh has a 47.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.5%
  • In 6 games: 19.5%
  • In 5 games: 13.4%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 92.2%, Nashville 7.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
• Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win
• Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 4-5-1
• Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
• May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• May 7: Colorado at Nashville
• May 9: Colorado at Nashville
• May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 92.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 36.6%
  • In 5 games: 31.9%
  • In 6 games: 14.3%
  • In 7 games: 9.3%
• Nashville has a 7.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 5.0%
  • In 6 games: 2.8%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Minnesota 46.1%, St. Louis 53.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
• St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Minnesota: 0 wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Minnesota: 8-1-1
• St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
• May 6: Minnesota at St. Louis
• May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
• May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
• May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Minnesota has a 46.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 11.7%
  • In 6 games: 15.5%
  • In 7 games: 18.9%
• St. Louis has a 53.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 15.3%
  • In 6 games: 22.2%
  • In 5 games: 16.4%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Calgary 64.6%, Dallas 35.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
• Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Calgary: 6-2-2
• Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
• May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
• May 7: Calgary at Dallas
• May 9: Calgary at Dallas
• May 11: Dallas at Calgary
• May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
• May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Calgary has a 64.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 22.2%
  • In 7 games: 21.4%
• Dallas has a 35.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.1%
  • In 6 games: 14.8%
  • In 5 games: 8.6%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Edmonton 53.1%, Los Angeles 46.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
• Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-2-1
• Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
• May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
• May 6: Edmonton at Los Angeles
• May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
• May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
• May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
• May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 53.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 14.8%
  • In 6 games: 17.9%
  • In 7 games: 20.4%
• Los Angeles has a 46.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.2%
  • In 6 games: 19.5%
  • In 5 games: 13.1%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%