There were four more games last night, and now each series has played 1 game. Two games saw lower-seeded teams defeating higher-seeded ones, and one of those took almost 106 minutes before it was over!
In the first game of the night, the New York Rangers hosted Pittsburgh. This game was a story of goalies, as the game went into triple overtime before Pittsburgh finally finished off a 4-3 victory. For the losing Rangers, goalie Igor Shesterkin set a Rangers record with 79 saves! That surpassed the old record of 56 saves, set by Gump Worsley way back in the 1962 playoffs. Gump was one of my first two favourite players when I was a little kid (Jean Beliveau was the other), and incidentally, he had also played for the Saskatoon Quakers; I remember seeing his picture in the entrance to the old Saskatoon Arena. Interestingly enough, during his time in Saskatoon, he was also a star soccer player, and played in a game between the Saskatoon All-Stars and Tottenham Hotspur!
But enough about Gump! In last night’s game, Louis Domingue, Pittsburgh’s 3rd-string goalie, came off the bench in the middle of the second overtime to replace starter and 2nd-string goalie Casey DeSmith who had to leave after suffering a lower-body injury. By the way, 1st-string goalie Tristan Jarry has been out with an injury for the last 3 weeks. Anyways, Domingue finished off the game with 17 saves and Evgeni Malkin scored 5:58 into the third overtime period to win the game for Pittsburgh. With the win, Pittsburgh is now our favourite to win this series, as we’re giving them a 62.2% chance of winning it.
The rest of the games only took 60 minutes to play, starting with Washington facing Florida. After being down 2-1 after two periods, Washington scored three goals in the 3rd, the last being an empty-netter, to take the victory and a 1-0 lead in the series. Washington, the 2nd wildcard team in the Eastern Conference, now has a 55.7% chance of defeating President’s Trophy winning top-seed Florida. That President’s Trophy is cursed, I tell you!
Over to the Western Conference, Colorado shook off their late-season slump to defeat Nashville 7-2. Colorado scored early and often, potting 5 goals in the first period. Nashville’s top goalie, Juuse Saros, is currently injured, and the Avalanche took advantage, chasing David Rittich after just 15 minutes. We’re now giving Colorado an 84.4% chance of winning this series.
In the final game of the night, Calgary defeated Dallas 1-0, with the only goal of the game coming on a powerplay in the first period. Jacob Markstrom got the shutout for Calgary, stopping 16 shots. Markstrom led the league with 9 shutouts in the regular season. For the Stars, Jake Oettinger stopped 25 of Calgary’s 26 shots, but it just wasn’t enough. We’ve now calculated that Calgary has an 82.5% chance of winning the series.
Yesterday’s Games
NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)
Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
- Pittsburgh leads series 1-0
- Pittsburgh now has a 62.2% chance of winning the series, up from 41.8%
Series schedule:
- May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
- May 5: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
- May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
- May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
- May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
- May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
- May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- NY Rangers has a 37.8% chance of winning (▼20.4)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼9.7)
- In 5 games: 8.3% (▼9.1)
- In 6 games: 12.7% (▼2.4)
- In 7 games: 16.8% (▲0.8)
- Pittsburgh has a 62.2% chance of winning (▲20.4)
- In 7 games: 12.0% (▲0.6)
- In 6 games: 19.0% (▲4.6)
- In 5 games: 16.7% (▲6.7)
- In 4 games: 14.5% (▲8.6)
Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)
Washington 4 at Florida 2
- Washington leads series 1-0
- Washington now has a 55.7% chance of winning the series, up from 34.7%
Series schedule:
- May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
- May 5: Washington at Florida
- May 7: Florida at Washington
- May 9: Florida at Washington
- May 11: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
- May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
- May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Florida has a 44.3% chance of winning (▼21.0)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼12.6)
- In 5 games: 10.7% (▼9.5)
- In 6 games: 15.0% (▼1.3)
- In 7 games: 18.5% (▲2.3)
- Washington has a 55.7% chance of winning (▲21.0)
- In 7 games: 11.5% (▲1.3)
- In 6 games: 17.7% (▲5.5)
- In 5 games: 14.4% (▲6.6)
- In 4 games: 12.1% (▲7.6)
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)
Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
- Colorado leads series 1-0
- Colorado now has an 84.4% chance of winning the series, up from 74.5%
Series schedule:
- May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
- May 5: Nashville at Colorado
- May 7: Colorado at Nashville
- May 9: Colorado at Nashville
- May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
- May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
- May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Colorado has a 84.4% chance of winning (▲9.9)
- In 4 games: 25.3% (▲8.1)
- In 5 games: 29.1% (▲4.7)
- In 6 games: 17.0% (▼0.5)
- In 7 games: 13.0% (▼2.4)
- Nashville has a 15.6% chance of winning (▼9.9)
- In 7 games: 7.0% (▼1.2)
- In 6 games: 6.2% (▼2.9)
- In 5 games: 2.5% (▼2.8)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼2.8)
Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)
Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
- Calgary leads series 1-0
- Calgary now has a 82.5% chance of winning the series, up from 71.8%
Series schedule:
- May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
- May 5: Dallas at Calgary
- May 7: Calgary at Dallas
- May 9: Calgary at Dallas
- May 11: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
- May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
- May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Calgary has a 82.5% chance of winning (▲10.7)
- In 4 games: 23.6% (▲8.0)
- In 5 games: 28.2% (▲5.0)
- In 6 games: 17.1% (▼0.1)
- In 7 games: 13.6% (▼2.2)
- Dallas has a 17.5% chance of winning (▼10.7)
- In 7 games: 7.7% (▼1.2)
- In 6 games: 7.0% (▼3.1)
- In 5 games: 2.8% (▼3.2)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼3.3)
Today’s Games
Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)
Boston at Carolina
- Carolina leads series 1-0
- Carolina has a 74.7% chance of winning the series
Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
Tampa Bay at Toronto
- Toronto leads series 1-0
- Toronto has a 75.5% chance of winning the series
Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)
St. Louis at Minnesota
- St. Louis leads series 1-0
- St. Louis has a 69.5% chance of winning the series
Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)
Los Angeles at Edmonton
- Los Angeles leads series 1-0
- Los Angeles has a 61.7% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Eastern Conference
Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)
Washington leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Florida 44%, Washington 56%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1581, 6th overall
- Washington: 1530, 14th overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
- Washington: 1 regulation win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Florida: 7-3-0
- Washington: 4-4-2
Series schedule:
- May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
- May 5: Washington at Florida
- May 7: Florida at Washington
- May 9: Florida at Washington
- May 11: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
- May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
- May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Florida has a 44.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 10.7%
- In 6 games: 15.0%
- In 7 games: 18.5%
- Washington has a 55.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.5%
- In 6 games: 17.7%
- In 5 games: 14.4%
- In 4 games: 12.1%
Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
Toronto leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Toronto 76%, Tampa Bay 24%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
- Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
- Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Toronto: 7-2-1
- Tampa Bay: 7-3-0
Series schedule:
- May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
- May 4: Tampa Bay at Toronto
- May 6: Toronto at Tampa Bay
- May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
- May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
- May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Toronto has a 75.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 18.3%
- In 5 games: 25.1%
- In 6 games: 16.9%
- In 7 games: 15.1%
- Tampa Bay has a 24.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.2%
- In 6 games: 9.9%
- In 5 games: 4.4%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)
Carolina leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Carolina 75%, Boston 25%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
- Boston: 1559, 11th overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Carolina: 3 regulation wins
- Boston: 0 wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Carolina: 8-2-0
- Boston: 6-4-0
Series schedule:
- May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
- May 4: Boston at Carolina
- May 6: Carolina at Boston
- May 8: Carolina at Boston
- May 10: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
- May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
- May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 74.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 18.1%
- In 5 games: 24.5%
- In 6 games: 16.9%
- In 7 games: 15.1%
- Boston has a 25.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.4%
- In 6 games: 10.2%
- In 5 games: 4.7%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)
Pittsburgh leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: NY Rangers 38%, Pittsburgh 62%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
- Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
- Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win
Last 10 regular season games:
- NY Rangers: 6-4-0
- Pittsburgh: 5-4-1
Series schedule:
- May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
- May 5: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
- May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
- May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
- May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
- May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
- May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- NY Rangers has a 37.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 8.3%
- In 6 games: 12.7%
- In 7 games: 16.8%
- Pittsburgh has a 62.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 12.0%
- In 6 games: 19.0%
- In 5 games: 16.7%
- In 4 games: 14.5%
Western Conference
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)
Colorado leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Colorado 84%, Nashville 16%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
- Nashville: 1512, 17th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Colorado: 1 regulation win
- Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Colorado: 4-5-1
- Nashville: 4-4-2
Series schedule:
- May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
- May 5: Nashville at Colorado
- May 7: Colorado at Nashville
- May 9: Colorado at Nashville
- May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
- May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
- May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 84.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 25.3%
- In 5 games: 29.1%
- In 6 games: 17.0%
- In 7 games: 13.0%
- Nashville has a 15.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.0%
- In 6 games: 6.2%
- In 5 games: 2.5%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)
St. Louis leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Minnesota 30%, St. Louis 70%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
- St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Minnesota: 0 wins
- St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Minnesota: 8-1-1
- St. Louis: 7-2-1
Series schedule:
- May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
- May 4: St. Louis at Minnesota
- May 6: Minnesota at St. Louis
- May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
- May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
- May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
- May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Minnesota has a 30.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 6.1%
- In 6 games: 9.9%
- In 7 games: 14.5%
- St. Louis has a 69.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.6%
- In 6 games: 20.0%
- In 5 games: 19.3%
- In 4 games: 18.5%
Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)
Calgary leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Calgary 83%, Dallas 17%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
- Dallas: 1509, 18th overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Calgary: 2 regulation wins
- Dallas: 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Calgary: 6-2-2
- Dallas: 5-3-2
Series schedule:
- May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
- May 5: Dallas at Calgary
- May 7: Calgary at Dallas
- May 9: Calgary at Dallas
- May 11: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
- May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
- May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Calgary has a 82.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 23.6%
- In 5 games: 28.2%
- In 6 games: 17.1%
- In 7 games: 13.6%
- Dallas has a 17.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.7%
- In 6 games: 7.0%
- In 5 games: 2.8%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)
Los Angeles leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Edmonton 38%, Los Angeles 62%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
- Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
- Los Angeles: 1 regulation win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Edmonton: 7-2-1
- Los Angeles: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
- May 4: Los Angeles at Edmonton
- May 6: Edmonton at Los Angeles
- May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
- May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
- May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
- May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Edmonton has a 38.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 8.4%
- In 6 games: 12.7%
- In 7 games: 17.1%
- Los Angeles has a 61.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.8%
- In 6 games: 19.0%
- In 5 games: 16.5%
- In 4 games: 14.4%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.
1 Colorado Avalanche 14.1% 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 11.1% 3 Carolina Hurricanes 10.9% 4 Calgary Flames 10.6% 5 Florida Panthers 9.1% 6 St. Louis Blues 7.4% 7 Minnesota Wild 6.9% 8 New York Rangers 5.6% 9 Edmonton Oilers 5.5% 10 Tampa Bay Lightning 4.4% 11 Boston Bruins 4.3% 12 Pittsburgh Penguins 2.9% 13 Los Angeles Kings 2.6% 14 Washington Capitals 2.1% 15 Dallas Stars 1.3% 16 Nashville Predators 1.2%