The playoffs have started! In last night’s games, as could probably be expected in first-round games, there was only one close game. What was surprising, though, was one of those non-close games was an upset!
In the first game of the night, Carolina beat Boston 5-1. Carolina is the top-seeded team in this matchup, and they were playing at home, so this wasn’t much of a surprise. Goalie Antti Raanta was the star of the game, getting the win in his first career playoff start. He’s the Hurricane’s backup goalie, starting in place of Frederik Andersen who is out with a lower-body injury. Five separate players scored for Carolina. Carolina was our favourite going into this series, and we’ve calculated that they now have a 74.7% chance of winning the series.
The second game featured defending two-time Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay in Toronto to face the Maple Leafs. Heavy underdogs because they can’t seem to win in the playoffs, Toronto silenced their critics with a strong 5-0 shutout. Auston Matthews, this year’s league-leading goal scorer, scored twice and assisted once for Toronto, while linemate Mitchell Marner scored once and assisted twice. Jack Campbell earned the shutout, making 24 saves. The boys in the back room now figure that Toronto has a 75.5% chance of winning the series, although they don’t seem to be taking into account the Curse of Harold Ballard.
Over in the Western Conference, St. Louis got the second shutout of the night, beating Minnesota 4-0 on the road. Although Minnesota is the higher-seeded team, we were giving St. Louis a slight edge to win the series. We’ve now calculated their chances of winning increased to 69.5%, up from 50.2%. The big star for the Blues was David Perron, who scored his first career playoff hat trick, with two powerplay goals and an even-strength goal. Ville Husso had a busy night in net for St. Louis, stopping 37 shots to earn the shutout.
In the night’s final game, Los Angeles upset Edmonton 4-3. With the scored tied 3-3 with 5 minutes left in regulation time, Edmonton goalie Mike Smith turned the puck over trying to clear the puck, and the Kings took advantage of the unforced error to score the winning goal. Although Edmonton is the higher-seeded team, with the upset, we’re now giving LA a 61.7% chance of winning the series.
There four games on tap tonight, as the remaining four series start. The New York Rangers host Pittsburgh, Washington entertains Florida (I always like when sportscasters say a team entertains another — I imaging them juggling balls!), Nashville visits Colorado, and Dallas travels to Calgary.
Yesterday’s Games
Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)
Boston 1 at Carolina 5
- Carolina leads series 1-0
- Carolina now has a 74.7% chance of winning the series, up from 60.7%
Series schedule:
- May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
- May 4: Boston at Carolina
- May 6: Carolina at Boston
- May 8: Carolina at Boston
- May 10: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
- May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
- May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Carolina has a 74.7% chance of winning (▲14.0)
- In 4 games: 18.1% (▲7.3)
- In 5 games: 24.5% (▲6.2)
- In 6 games: 16.9% (▲1.5)
- In 7 games: 15.1% (▼1.0)
- Boston has a 25.3% chance of winning (▼14.0)
- In 7 games: 10.4% (▼0.6)
- In 6 games: 10.2% (▼3.4)
- In 5 games: 4.7% (▼4.5)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼5.5)
Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
- Toronto leads series 1-0
- Toronto now has a 75.5% chance of winning the series, up from 62.2%
Series schedule:
- May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
- May 4: Tampa Bay at Toronto
- May 6: Toronto at Tampa Bay
- May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
- May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
- May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Toronto has a 75.5% chance of winning (▲13.3)
- In 4 games: 18.3% (▲7.1)
- In 5 games: 25.1% (▲6.0)
- In 6 games: 16.9% (▲1.2)
- In 7 games: 15.1% (▼1.2)
- Tampa Bay has a 24.5% chance of winning (▼13.3)
- In 7 games: 10.2% (▼0.6)
- In 6 games: 9.9% (▼3.3)
- In 5 games: 4.4% (▼4.3)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼5.0)
Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)
St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
- St. Louis leads series 1-0
- St. Louis now has a 69.5% chance of winning the series, up from 50.2%
Series schedule:
- May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
- May 4: St. Louis at Minnesota
- May 6: Minnesota at St. Louis
- May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
- May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
- May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
- May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Minnesota has a 30.5% chance of winning (▼19.3)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼7.2)
- In 5 games: 6.1% (▼8.2)
- In 6 games: 9.9% (▼3.3)
- In 7 games: 14.5% (▼0.6)
- St. Louis has a 69.5% chance of winning (▲19.3)
- In 7 games: 11.6% (▼0.9)
- In 6 games: 20.0% (▲3.2)
- In 5 games: 19.3% (▲6.7)
- In 4 games: 18.5% (▲10.2)
Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)
Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
- Los Angeles leads series 1-0
- Los Angeles now has a 61.7% chance of winning the series, up from 40.9%
Series schedule:
- May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
- May 4: Los Angeles at Edmonton
- May 6: Edmonton at Los Angeles
- May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
- May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
- May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
- May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Edmonton has a 38.3% chance of winning (▼20.8)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼10.3)
- In 5 games: 8.4% (▼9.3)
- In 6 games: 12.7% (▼2.4)
- In 7 games: 17.1% (▲1.0)
- Los Angeles has a 61.7% chance of winning (▲20.8)
- In 7 games: 11.8% (▲0.5)
- In 6 games: 19.0% (▲4.8)
- In 5 games: 16.5% (▲6.8)
- In 4 games: 14.4% (▲8.6)
Today’s Games
NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)
Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
- Series tied 0-0
- NY Rangers have a 58.2% chance of winning the series
Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)
Washington at Florida
- Series tied 0-0
- Florida has a 65.3% chance of winning the series
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)
Nashville at Colorado
- Series tied 0-0
- Colorado has a 74.5% chance of winning the series
Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)
Dallas at Calgary
- Series tied 0-0
- Calgary has a 71.8% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Eastern Conference
Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)
Chances of winning: Florida 65%, Washington 35%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1581, 6th overall
- Washington: 1530, 14th overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
- Washington: 1 regulation win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Florida: 7-3-0
- Washington: 4-4-2
Series schedule:
- May 3: Washington at Florida
- May 5: Washington at Florida
- May 7: Florida at Washington
- May 9: Florida at Washington
- May 11: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
- May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
- May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Florida has a 65.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 12.6%
- In 5 games: 20.2%
- In 6 games: 16.3%
- In 7 games: 16.2%
- Washington has a 34.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.2%
- In 6 games: 12.2%
- In 5 games: 7.8%
- In 4 games: 4.5%
Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
Toronto leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Toronto 76%, Tampa Bay 24%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
- Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
- Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Toronto: 7-2-1
- Tampa Bay: 7-3-0
Series schedule:
- May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
- May 4: Tampa Bay at Toronto
- May 6: Toronto at Tampa Bay
- May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
- May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
- May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Toronto has a 75.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 18.3%
- In 5 games: 25.1%
- In 6 games: 16.9%
- In 7 games: 15.1%
- Tampa Bay has a 24.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.2%
- In 6 games: 9.9%
- In 5 games: 4.4%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)
Carolina leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Carolina 75%, Boston 25%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
- Boston: 1559, 11th overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Carolina: 3 regulation wins
- Boston: 0 wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Carolina: 8-2-0
- Boston: 6-4-0
Series schedule:
- May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
- May 4: Boston at Carolina
- May 6: Carolina at Boston
- May 8: Carolina at Boston
- May 10: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
- May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
- May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 74.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 18.1%
- In 5 games: 24.5%
- In 6 games: 16.9%
- In 7 games: 15.1%
- Boston has a 25.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.4%
- In 6 games: 10.2%
- In 5 games: 4.7%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)
Chances of winning: NY Rangers 58%, Pittsburgh 42%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
- Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
- Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win
Last 10 regular season games:
- NY Rangers: 6-4-0
- Pittsburgh: 5-4-1
Series schedule:
- May 3: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
- May 5: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
- May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
- May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
- May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
- May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
- May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- NY Rangers has a 58.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 9.7%
- In 5 games: 17.4%
- In 6 games: 15.1%
- In 7 games: 16.0%
- Pittsburgh has a 41.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.4%
- In 6 games: 14.4%
- In 5 games: 10.0%
- In 4 games: 5.9%
Western Conference
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)
Chances of winning: Colorado 75%, Nashville 25%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
- Nashville: 1512, 17th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Colorado: 1 regulation win
- Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Colorado: 4-5-1
- Nashville: 4-4-2
Series schedule:
- May 3: Nashville at Colorado
- May 5: Nashville at Colorado
- May 7: Colorado at Nashville
- May 9: Colorado at Nashville
- May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
- May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
- May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 74.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 17.2%
- In 5 games: 24.4%
- In 6 games: 17.5%
- In 7 games: 15.4%
- Nashville has a 25.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.2%
- In 6 games: 9.1%
- In 5 games: 5.3%
- In 4 games: 2.8%
Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)
St. Louis leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Minnesota 30%, St. Louis 70%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
- St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Minnesota: 0 wins
- St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Minnesota: 8-1-1
- St. Louis: 7-2-1
Series schedule:
- May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
- May 4: St. Louis at Minnesota
- May 6: Minnesota at St. Louis
- May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
- May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
- May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
- May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Minnesota has a 30.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 6.1%
- In 6 games: 9.9%
- In 7 games: 14.5%
- St. Louis has a 69.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.6%
- In 6 games: 20.0%
- In 5 games: 19.3%
- In 4 games: 18.5%
Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)
Chances of winning: Calgary 72%, Dallas 28%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
- Dallas: 1509, 18th overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Calgary: 2 regulation wins
- Dallas: 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Calgary: 6-2-2
- Dallas: 5-3-2
Series schedule:
- May 3: Dallas at Calgary
- May 5: Dallas at Calgary
- May 7: Calgary at Dallas
- May 9: Calgary at Dallas
- May 11: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
- May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
- May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Calgary has a 71.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 15.6%
- In 5 games: 23.2%
- In 6 games: 17.2%
- In 7 games: 15.8%
- Dallas has a 28.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.9%
- In 6 games: 10.1%
- In 5 games: 6.0%
- In 4 games: 3.3%
Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)
Los Angeles leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Edmonton 59%, Los Angeles 41%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
- Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
- Los Angeles: 1 regulation win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Edmonton: 7-2-1
- Los Angeles: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
- May 4: Los Angeles at Edmonton
- May 6: Edmonton at Los Angeles
- May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
- May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
- May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
- May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Edmonton has a 59.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 10.3%
- In 5 games: 17.7%
- In 6 games: 15.1%
- In 7 games: 16.1%
- Los Angeles has a 40.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.3%
- In 6 games: 14.2%
- In 5 games: 9.7%
- In 4 games: 5.8%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.
1 Colorado Avalanche 14.1% 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 11.1% 3 Carolina Hurricanes 10.9% 4 Calgary Flames 10.6% 5 Florida Panthers 9.1% 6 St. Louis Blues 7.4% 7 Minnesota Wild 6.9% 8 New York Rangers 5.6% 9 Edmonton Oilers 5.5% 10 Tampa Bay Lightning 4.4% 11 Boston Bruins 4.3% 12 Pittsburgh Penguins 2.9% 13 Los Angeles Kings 2.6% 14 Washington Capitals 2.1% 15 Dallas Stars 1.3% 16 Nashville Predators 1.2%