The NHL regular season has wrapped up, and it’s time for the playoffs! All of the first-round playoff games have been scheduled, so we know who’s playing where and when. Using the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, we’ve run a million simulations of each playoff series, and here’s what we’ve seen as a result.
Overall, we think that Colorado has the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup. They are the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, and we’re giving them a 14.1% chance of winning it all. However, they were the favourite last year, and they didn’t even make the finals, so we’ll see what happens this year. The President’s Trophy-winning team, the Florida Panthers, are ranked 6th in our Ratings, and we’re giving them a 9.1% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, although that President’s Trophy does seem to be a curse! Toronto, another cursed team, have the second-best chance of winning the Cup, as we’ve calculated that they’ve got an 11.1% chance of winning it.
The closest playoff matchup in the first round is Minnesota against St. Louis. It’s pretty much a toss-up, although we’re giving St. Louis the slightest of edges, with a 50.2% chance of winning the series versus Minnesota’s 49.8% chance! The most-lopsided matchup is Colorado vs. Nashville, and we’re giving Colorado a 74.5% chance of winning that one. But, that still means that Nashville has about a 1 in 4 chance of upsetting our top-ranked team, so it’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility.
Two final interesting (to me, at least) stats:
- there is a 50.4% chance of an Eastern Conference team winning the Stanley Cup, versus a 49.6% chance of a Western Conference team winning it
- there is a 27.2% chance of a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup
Here’s our summary!
Playoff Matchups
Eastern Conference
Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)
Chances of winning: Florida 65%, Washington 35%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1581, 6th overall
- Washington: 1530, 14th overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
- Washington: 1 regulation win
Last 10 games:
- Florida: 7-3-0
- Washington: 4-4-2
Series schedule:
- May 3: Washington at Florida
- May 5: Washington at Florida
- May 7: Florida at Washington
- May 9: Florida at Washington
- May 11: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
- May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
- May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Florida has a 65.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 12.6%
- In 5 games: 20.2%
- In 6 games: 16.3%
- In 7 games: 16.2%
- Washington has a 34.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.2%
- In 6 games: 12.2%
- In 5 games: 7.8%
- In 4 games: 4.5%
Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
Chances of winning: Toronto 62%, Tampa Bay 38%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
- Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
- Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 games:
- Toronto: 7-2-1
- Tampa Bay: 7-3-0
Series schedule:
- May 2: Tampa Bay at Toronto
- May 4: Tampa Bay at Toronto
- May 6: Toronto at Tampa Bay
- May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
- May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
- May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Toronto has a 62.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 11.2%
- In 5 games: 19.1%
- In 6 games: 15.7%
- In 7 games: 16.3%
- Tampa Bay has a 37.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.8%
- In 6 games: 13.2%
- In 5 games: 8.7%
- In 4 games: 5.0%
Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)
Chances of winning: Carolina 61%, Boston 39%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
- Boston: 1559, 11th overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Carolina: 3 regulation wins
- Boston: 0 wins
Last 10 games:
- Carolina: 8-2-0
- Boston: 6-4-0
Series schedule:
- May 2: Boston at Carolina
- May 4: Boston at Carolina
- May 6: Carolina at Boston
- May 8: Carolina at Boston
- May 10: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
- May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
- May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 60.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 10.8%
- In 5 games: 18.3%
- In 6 games: 15.4%
- In 7 games: 16.1%
- Boston has a 39.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.0%
- In 6 games: 13.6%
- In 5 games: 9.2%
- In 4 games: 5.5%
NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)
Chances of winning: NY Rangers 58%, Pittsburgh 42%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
- Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
- Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win
Last 10 games:
- NY Rangers: 6-4-0
- Pittsburgh: 5-4-1
Series schedule:
- May 3: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
- May 5: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
- May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
- May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
- May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
- May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
- May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- NY Rangers has a 58.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 9.7%
- In 5 games: 17.4%
- In 6 games: 15.1%
- In 7 games: 16.0%
- Pittsburgh has a 41.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.4%
- In 6 games: 14.4%
- In 5 games: 10.0%
- In 4 games: 5.9%
Western Conference
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)
Chances of winning: Colorado 75%, Nashville 25%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
- Nashville: 1512, 17th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Colorado: 1 regulation win
- Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Last 10 games:
- Colorado: 4-5-1
- Nashville: 4-4-2
Series schedule:
- May 3: Nashville at Colorado
- May 5: Nashville at Colorado
- May 7: Colorado at Nashville
- May 9: Colorado at Nashville
- May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
- May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
- May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 74.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 17.2%
- In 5 games: 24.4%
- In 6 games: 17.5%
- In 7 games: 15.4%
- Nashville has a 25.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.2%
- In 6 games: 9.1%
- In 5 games: 5.3%
- In 4 games: 2.8%
Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)
Chances of winning: Minnesota 50%, St. Louis 50%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
- St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Minnesota: 0 wins
- St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
Last 10 games:
- Minnesota: 8-1-1
- St. Louis: 7-2-1
Series schedule:
- May 2: St. Louis at Minnesota
- May 4: St. Louis at Minnesota
- May 6: Minnesota at St. Louis
- May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
- May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
- May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
- May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Minnesota has a 49.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 7.2%
- In 5 games: 14.3%
- In 6 games: 13.2%
- In 7 games: 15.1%
- St. Louis has a 50.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 12.5%
- In 6 games: 16.8%
- In 5 games: 12.6%
- In 4 games: 8.3%
Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)
Chances of winning: Calgary 72%, Dallas 28%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
- Dallas: 1509, 18th overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Calgary: 2 regulation wins
- Dallas: 1 overtime win
Last 10 games:
- Calgary: 6-2-2
- Dallas: 5-3-2
Series schedule:
- May 3: Dallas at Calgary
- May 5: Dallas at Calgary
- May 7: Calgary at Dallas
- May 9: Calgary at Dallas
- May 11: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
- May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
- May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Calgary has a 71.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 15.6%
- In 5 games: 23.2%
- In 6 games: 17.2%
- In 7 games: 15.8%
- Dallas has a 28.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.9%
- In 6 games: 10.1%
- In 5 games: 6.0%
- In 4 games: 3.3%
Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)
Chances of winning: Edmonton 59%, Los Angeles 41%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
- Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
- Los Angeles: 1 regulation win
Last 10 games:
- Edmonton: 7-2-1
- Los Angeles: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 2: Los Angeles at Edmonton
- May 4: Los Angeles at Edmonton
- May 6: Edmonton at Los Angeles
- May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
- May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
- May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
- May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Edmonton has a 59.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 10.3%
- In 5 games: 17.7%
- In 6 games: 15.1%
- In 7 games: 16.1%
- Los Angeles has a 40.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.3%
- In 6 games: 14.2%
- In 5 games: 9.7%
- In 4 games: 5.8%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 14.1% 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 11.1% 3 Carolina Hurricanes 10.9% 4 Calgary Flames 10.6% 5 Florida Panthers 9.1% 6 St. Louis Blues 7.4% 7 Minnesota Wild 6.9% 8 New York Rangers 5.6% 9 Edmonton Oilers 5.5% 10 Tampa Bay Lightning 4.4% 11 Boston Bruins 4.3% 12 Pittsburgh Penguins 2.9% 13 Los Angeles Kings 2.6% 14 Washington Capitals 2.1% 15 Dallas Stars 1.3% 16 Nashville Predators 1.2%