McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Preview

The NHL regular season has wrapped up, and it’s time for the playoffs! All of the first-round playoff games have been scheduled, so we know who’s playing where and when. Using the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, we’ve run a million simulations of each playoff series, and here’s what we’ve seen as a result.

Overall, we think that Colorado has the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup. They are the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, and we’re giving them a 14.1% chance of winning it all. However, they were the favourite last year, and they didn’t even make the finals, so we’ll see what happens this year. The President’s Trophy-winning team, the Florida Panthers, are ranked 6th in our Ratings, and we’re giving them a 9.1% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, although that President’s Trophy does seem to be a curse! Toronto, another cursed team, have the second-best chance of winning the Cup, as we’ve calculated that they’ve got an 11.1% chance of winning it.

The closest playoff matchup in the first round is Minnesota against St. Louis. It’s pretty much a toss-up, although we’re giving St. Louis the slightest of edges, with a 50.2% chance of winning the series versus Minnesota’s 49.8% chance! The most-lopsided matchup is Colorado vs. Nashville, and we’re giving Colorado a 74.5% chance of winning that one. But, that still means that Nashville has about a 1 in 4 chance of upsetting our top-ranked team, so it’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility.

Two final interesting (to me, at least) stats:

there is a 50.4% chance of an Eastern Conference team winning the Stanley Cup, versus a 49.6% chance of a Western Conference team winning it
there is a 27.2% chance of a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup

Here’s our summary!

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Chances of winning: Florida 65%, Washington 35%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Florida: 1581, 6th overall
Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 games:

Florida: 7-3-0
Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 3: Washington at Florida
May 5: Washington at Florida
May 7: Florida at Washington
May 9: Florida at Washington
May 11: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Florida has a 65.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 12.6%
- In 5 games: 20.2%
- In 6 games: 16.3%
- In 7 games: 16.2%
Washington has a 34.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.2%
- In 6 games: 12.2%
- In 5 games: 7.8%
- In 4 games: 4.5%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 62%, Tampa Bay 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

Toronto: 7-2-1
Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

May 2: Tampa Bay at Toronto
May 4: Tampa Bay at Toronto
May 6: Toronto at Tampa Bay
May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Toronto has a 62.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 11.2%
- In 5 games: 19.1%
- In 6 games: 15.7%
- In 7 games: 16.3%
Tampa Bay has a 37.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.8%
- In 6 games: 13.2%
- In 5 games: 8.7%
- In 4 games: 5.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Chances of winning: Carolina 61%, Boston 39%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

Carolina: 3 regulation wins
Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 games:

Carolina: 8-2-0
Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

May 2: Boston at Carolina
May 4: Boston at Carolina
May 6: Carolina at Boston
May 8: Carolina at Boston
May 10: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 60.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 10.8%
- In 5 games: 18.3%
- In 6 games: 15.4%
- In 7 games: 16.1%
Boston has a 39.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.0%
- In 6 games: 13.6%
- In 5 games: 9.2%
- In 4 games: 5.5%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 58%, Pittsburgh 42%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 games:

NY Rangers: 6-4-0
Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

May 3: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
May 5: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

NY Rangers has a 58.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 9.7%
- In 5 games: 17.4%
- In 6 games: 15.1%
- In 7 games: 16.0%
Pittsburgh has a 41.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.4%
- In 6 games: 14.4%
- In 5 games: 10.0%
- In 4 games: 5.9%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 75%, Nashville 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

Colorado: 1 regulation win
Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 games:

Colorado: 4-5-1
Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 3: Nashville at Colorado
May 5: Nashville at Colorado
May 7: Colorado at Nashville
May 9: Colorado at Nashville
May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 74.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 17.2%
- In 5 games: 24.4%
- In 6 games: 17.5%
- In 7 games: 15.4%
Nashville has a 25.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.2%
- In 6 games: 9.1%
- In 5 games: 5.3%
- In 4 games: 2.8%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Chances of winning: Minnesota 50%, St. Louis 50%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

Minnesota: 0 wins
St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 games:

Minnesota: 8-1-1
St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

May 2: St. Louis at Minnesota
May 4: St. Louis at Minnesota
May 6: Minnesota at St. Louis
May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Minnesota has a 49.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 7.2%
- In 5 games: 14.3%
- In 6 games: 13.2%
- In 7 games: 15.1%
St. Louis has a 50.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 12.5%
- In 6 games: 16.8%
- In 5 games: 12.6%
- In 4 games: 8.3%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Chances of winning: Calgary 72%, Dallas 28%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

Calgary: 2 regulation wins
Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 games:

Calgary: 6-2-2
Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

May 3: Dallas at Calgary
May 5: Dallas at Calgary
May 7: Calgary at Dallas
May 9: Calgary at Dallas
May 11: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Calgary has a 71.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 15.6%
- In 5 games: 23.2%
- In 6 games: 17.2%
- In 7 games: 15.8%
Dallas has a 28.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.9%
- In 6 games: 10.1%
- In 5 games: 6.0%
- In 4 games: 3.3%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Chances of winning: Edmonton 59%, Los Angeles 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 games:

Edmonton: 7-2-1
Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 2: Los Angeles at Edmonton
May 4: Los Angeles at Edmonton
May 6: Edmonton at Los Angeles
May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Edmonton has a 59.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 10.3%
- In 5 games: 17.7%
- In 6 games: 15.1%
- In 7 games: 16.1%
Los Angeles has a 40.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.3%
- In 6 games: 14.2%
- In 5 games: 9.7%
- In 4 games: 5.8%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            14.1%
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           11.1%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           10.9%
 4       Calgary Flames                10.6%
 5       Florida Panthers               9.1%
 6       St. Louis Blues                7.4%
 7       Minnesota Wild                 6.9%
 8       New York Rangers               5.6%
 9       Edmonton Oilers                5.5%
10       Tampa Bay Lightning            4.4%
11       Boston Bruins                  4.3%
12       Pittsburgh Penguins            2.9%
13       Los Angeles Kings              2.6%
14       Washington Capitals            2.1%
15       Dallas Stars                   1.3%
16       Nashville Predators            1.2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – May 1, 2022

The regular season is done, and we now know who all the playoff teams and what the matchups are. There weren’t a lot of changes from last week, other than:

Florida won the President’s Trophy as the team with the best record in the NHL
Carolina clinched 1st place in the Metropolitan Division
Nashville and Dallas both clinched wildcard spots in the Western Conference
Los Angeles clinched a playoff spot by finishing 3rd in the Pacific Division
Vegas and Vancouver were eliminated from playoff contention in the Western Conference

Four of last week’s top 5 teams in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings remain in the top 5, but Carolina moved into the top 5 while Florida dropped out. Colorado remained the top team, as they have been for most of the season. Toronto (yes, THAT Toronto) moved up into second place after winning their final two games. Carolina jumped from 6th up to 3rd, Calgary dropped down from 3rd to 4th, and St. Louis went from 2nd to 5th. Despite winning the President’s Trophy, Florida dropped out of the top 5, moving down to 6th.

At the bottom end, sadly, last year’s Stanley Cup finalist Montreal finished the regular season ranked last in the NHL. They also sported the worst record in the league, going 22-49-11 for 55 points, 2 points behind 2nd-worst Arizona. As some wag pointed out on Twitter, Montreal is the first team in the history of the NHL to finish 32nd!

On to the playoffs! Expect a McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Preview soon, as the playoffs start on Monday, May 2nd.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1601, ▼4)

Record: 56-19-7, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: — (▼1)
Winning the Stanley Cup: 14%

Last week: 1-1-1

April 26: Won 5-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (5th, 1582)
April 28: Lost in SO 5-4 vs. Nashville Predators (17th, 1512)
April 29: Lost 4-1 @ Minnesota Wild (7th, 1575)
End of regular season

2. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲3 (1598, ▲10)

Record: 54-21-7, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: —
Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲2)

Last week: 2-0-0

April 26: Won 3-0 vs. Detroit Red Wings (24th, 1432)
April 29: Won 5-2 vs. Boston Bruins (11th, 1559)
End of regular season

3. Carolina Hurricanes ▲3 (1593, ▲11)

Record: 54-20-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: —
Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲3)

Last week: 2-0-0

April 26: Won 4-3 @ New York Rangers (8th, 1564)
April 28: Won 6-3 vs. New Jersey Devils (30th, 1392)
End of regular season

4. Calgary Flames ▼1 (1586, ▼10)

Record: 50-21-11, 1st in Pacific Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: —
Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▼1)

Last week: 1-1-1

April 26: Won in OT 5-4 @ Nashville Predators (17th, 1512)
April 28: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Minnesota Wild (7th, 1575)
April 29: Lost 3-1 @ Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1505)
End of regular season

5. St. Louis Blues ▼3 (1582, ▼16)

Record: 49-22-11, 3rd in Central Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: —
Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼3)

Last week: 0-2-0

April 26: Lost 5-3 @ Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1601)
April 29: Lost 7-4 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (16th, 1515)
End of regular season

Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1601 (▼4)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      1598 (▲10)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲3)      1593 (▲11)
 4       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1586 (▼10)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▼3)          1582 (▼16)
 6       Florida Panthers (▼2)         1581 (▼13)
 7       Minnesota Wild                1575 (▼4)
 8       New York Rangers              1564 (▼14)
 9       Edmonton Oilers               1561 (▲3)
10       Tampa Bay Lightning           1560 (▲4)
11       Boston Bruins                 1559 (▲7)
12       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      1540 (▼3)
13       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1534 (▲7)
14       Washington Capitals (▼3)      1530 (▼22)
15       Vancouver Canucks             1525 (▲6)
16       Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     1515 (▲9)
17       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1512 (▼5)
18       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1509 (▲1)
19       New York Islanders            1508 (▲8)
20       Winnipeg Jets                 1505 (▲19)
21       Buffalo Sabres                1468 (▼7)
22       Ottawa Senators               1452
23       Columbus Blue Jackets         1450 (▼1)
24       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1432 (▲4)
25       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1431 (▼13)
26       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1420 (▲4)
27       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           1409 (▼9)
28       Arizona Coyotes (▲3)          1401 (▲24)
29       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1396 (▲11)
30       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1392 (▼9)
31       Philadelphia Flyers (▼3)      1385 (▼19)
32       Montreal Canadiens            1382 (▲23)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           ✔ (▲7)
 2 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    —
 2 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       —
 2 (tie) New York Rangers              — (▼7)
 2 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        —
 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      —
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      —
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      —

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              ✔
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins                 —
 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 2 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
 2 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            —
 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           —
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           —

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 2 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild                —
 2 (tie) Nashville Predators           —
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues               —
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 —

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                ✔
 2 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               —
 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 2 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
 2 (tie) Seattle Kraken                —
 2 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          —

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 1 (tie) New York Rangers              ✔
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           ✔
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            —
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 ✔
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              ✔
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           ✔
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            —
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 1 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲4)             ✔ (▲7)
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✔
 1 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲3)      ✔ (▲2)
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues               ✔
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 6 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 —

Pacific Division

 1 (tie) Calgary Flames                ✔
 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               ✔
 1 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        ✔ (▲1)
 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            —
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          —
 4 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           —
 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        — (▼1)
 4 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          — (▼9)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Florida Panthers              ✔ (▲1)

Florida won the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            14%
 2 (tie) Calgary Flames                11% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲4)      11% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      11% (▲2)
 5       Florida Panthers (▼2)         9% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           7% (▲1)
 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2)          7% (▼3)
 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          6% (▲1)
 8 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1)         6% (▼1)
10 (tie) Boston Bruins                 4%
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4%
12 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      3%
14       Washington Capitals (▼4)      2% (▼2)
15 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
15 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            —
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          —
17 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           —
17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       —
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    —
17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        —
17 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       —
17 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       —
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        —
17 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          —
17 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      —
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          —
17 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           —
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             — (▼1)
17 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          — (▼1)
17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            —

NHL 2021-22 Playoff Schedule and Results spreadsheet in Excel and CSV formats

Note: Last updated June 27, 2022 — contains complete playoff results.

I have updated my NHL schedule spreadsheet to include the playoff schedule. I’ve made it available in both Excel and CSV formats. It’s the same as the NHL schedule spreadsheet described in this post, with the addition of an additional worksheet containing the playoff schedule. Due to limitations of the CSV format, the CSV file only contains the playoff worksheet.

You can find the Excel spreadsheet here, and the CSV file here.

The new worksheet is called “Playoff Schedule”, and it looks like this:

Screenshot of Playoff Schedule worksheet

Most of the columns in the worksheet are the same as in the original worksheet, with two new ones. The Series column gives the name of the series, such as “East: A1 / WC2” for the series in the Eastern Conference between the top-seed in the Atlantic Division and the 2nd Eastern Conference Wildcard team. The Game # column lists which game in the series (1st game, 2nd game, etc.) this game is.

There are a couple of other changes. In the time columns, if the game time hasn’t been determined yet, it’s listed as TBD. And, in the Status column, games in the playoffs can’t end in a shootout, so there’s no chance of an SO showing up in that column, and if a game ends in the first overtime period, it’s indicated as OT, if it’s in the second overtime period, 2OT, third is 3OT, etc.

As with my regular season spreadsheet, I’ll try to keep this up-to-date every day.