There was a single game in the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs last night, with Carolina in New York to face the Rangers.  The Rangers needed a win, down 3 games to 2 in the best of 7 series, and they came through, winning 5-2 in front of their home crowd to force a Game 7 in Carolina on Monday.

The story of this series is Home Sweet Home — every game has been won by the home team.  In fact, the Rangers have won 6 straight home games, a Ranger team record for consecutive home playoff wins in one season, and Carolina became the first team in NHL history to lose their first six road games in a postseason.  Despite going 0-6 on the road, the Hurricanes are 7-0 at home in these playoffs!  They’ll be glad to head home.

The series wraps up on Monday night.  As the Hurricanes are playing at home, the boys in the back room have calculated that Carolina has a 58.0% chance of winning the game and the series.  The winner of the series will face Tampa Bay in the Eastern Conference finals starting on Wednesday night, with Tampa Bay being on the road.  The Western Conference finals start on Tuesday, with Edmonton visiting Colorado.

Yesterday’s Game

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Carolina 2 at NY Rangers 5

• Series tied 3-3
• Carolina now has a 58.0% chance of winning the series, down from 78.6%

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
• May 28: Carolina 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 58.0% chance of winning (▼20.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼48.9)
  • In 7 games: 58.0% (▲28.4)
• NY Rangers has a 42.0% chance of winning (▲20.6)
  • In 7 games: 42.0% (▲20.6)
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Tomorrow’s Game

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

NY Rangers at Carolina

• Series tied 3-3
• Carolina has a 58.0% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1591, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Florida: 2 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
• May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
• May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Series tied 3-3

Chances of winning: Carolina 58.0%, NY Rangers 42.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
• NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
• NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
• May 28: Carolina 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 58.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 58.0%
• NY Rangers has a 42.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 42.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 2 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado 3 at St. Louis 2

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
• Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

• Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
• May 26: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            22.6%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15.1%
 3       Florida Panthers              14.6%
 4       St. Louis Blues               11.7%
 5       Calgary Flames                11.6%
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning            9.2%
 7       New York Rangers               7.8%
 8       Edmonton Oilers                7.2%

These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.

There was a single game last night in the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs, with Colorado travelling to St. Louis.  Colorado held a 3 games to 2 lead in the best of 7 series.  After a hard-fought battle, the game was tied 2-2 with just seconds remaining, when Darren Helm scored with 5.6 seconds left to win the game, and the series, for Colorado.  J.T. Compher scored the other two goals for the Avalanche, who are the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team.  They move on to the Western Conference final, where they will face the Edmonton Oilers.  Game 1 goes on Tuesday, May 31st, in Colorado.

There is only a single game tonight, with Game 6 in the only remaining series in the second round of the playoffs.  Carolina visit Madison Square Gardens to face the New York Rangers, with a 3-2 series lead.  We’re giving the Rangers the slightest of edges in tonight’s game (51.1% chance of winning), but we’ve calculated that the Hurricanes have a 78.6% chance of winning the series.  If Carolina wins tonight, there won’t be another NHL Playoff game until Tuesday when the Western Conference final starts, but if the Rangers win, Game 7 of this series will be played on Monday, May 30th.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado 3 at St. Louis 2

• Colorado wins series 4-2

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado 3 at St. Louis 2

Today’s Game

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Carolina at NY Rangers

• Carolina leads series 3-2
• Carolina has a 78.6% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1591, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Florida: 2 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
• May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
• May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Carolina leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 78.6%, NY Rangers 21.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
• NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
• NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
• May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 78.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 48.9%
  • In 7 games: 29.6%
• NY Rangers has a 21.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 21.4%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 2 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado 3 at St. Louis 2

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
• Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

• Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
• May 26: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            22.6%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15.1%
 3       Florida Panthers              14.6%
 4       St. Louis Blues               11.7%
 5       Calgary Flames                11.6%
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning            9.2%
 7       New York Rangers               7.8%
 8       Edmonton Oilers                7.2%

These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.

There were two games in the NHL Playoffs last night.  In the first game, the New York Rangers travelled to Carolina, with the series tied 2 games apiece.  Carolina used the home ice to their advantage in a 3-1 win, completely shutting down the Rangers, holding them to only 17 shots.  The Hurricanes have now won all of their home games during the playoffs.  With a 3-2 series lead, we’ve now calculated that Carolina has a 78.6% chance of winning the series, up from 57.1%.  The next game goes Saturday night in New York, and we’re giving the Rangers the slightest of edges in that game, with a 51.1% chance of winning.

In the other game, THE BATTLE OF ALBERTA!  Calgary hosted Edmonton, with the Oilers leading the series 3 games to 1.  Connor McDavid was the big hero for Edmonton, again, as he scored 5:03 into overtime to give Edmonton a 5-4 win and a series victory.  Leon Draisaitl assisted on 4 of the Edmonton goals, and he and McDavid lead the playoffs in points, both having scored 7 goals and assisting on 19 others.  Draisaitl now has scored 3 or more points in five straight playoff games, an NHL record.  Calgary lead 1-0 after the first period, and scored 5 minutes into the second to go up 2-0, but Edmonton battled back to tie the game by the midpoint of the second period.  And then, things went crazy!  Edmonton scored at 14:57, 15 seconds later, Calgary tied it up again, then took the lead 16 seconds after that, and finally, Edmonton took 40 more seconds to tie it up again!  4 goals in 1 minute 11 seconds is an NHL playoff record.  That was all the scoring for the rest of regulation, and then Edmonton won it in OT.  Edmonton moves on to face the winner of the Colorado / St. Louis series in the Conference Finals.

Speaking of that series, the next game goes tonight, with Colorado visiting St. Louis.  Colorado has a 49.0% chance of finishing off the series tonight, and a 79.1% chance of winning the series overall.

Yesterday’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3

• Carolina leads series 3-2
• Carolina now has a 78.6% chance of winning the series, up from 57.1%

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
• May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 78.6% chance of winning (▲21.5)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 48.9% (▲20.0)
  • In 7 games: 29.6% (▲1.4)
• NY Rangers has a 21.4% chance of winning (▼21.5)
  • In 7 games: 21.4% (▲0.9)
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼22.5)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)

• Edmonton wins series 4-1

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
• May 26: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)

Today’s Games

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado at St. Louis

• Colorado leads series 3-2
• Colorado has a 79.1% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1591, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Florida: 2 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
• May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
• May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Carolina leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 78.6%, NY Rangers 21.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
• NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
• NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 3
• May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 78.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 48.9%
  • In 7 games: 29.6%
• NY Rangers has a 21.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 21.4%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Colorado 79.1%, St. Louis 20.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 2 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 79.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 49.0%
  • In 7 games: 30.1%
• St. Louis has a 20.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
• Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

• Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
• May 26: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 4 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            22.6%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15.1%
 3       Florida Panthers              14.6%
 4       St. Louis Blues               11.7%
 5       Calgary Flames                11.6%
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning            9.2%
 7       New York Rangers               7.8%
 8       Edmonton Oilers                7.2%

These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.

There was a single game in the NHL Playoffs last night.  Colorado hosted St. Louis, and held a 3-1 games lead in the series.  Colorado came out strong, leading 2-0 after the first period, both goals courtesy of Nathan MacKinnon, then extending that lead to 3-0 early in the second.  Then, St. Louis came storming back, scoring the next three goals to even things up with 5 minutes left in the game.  Nathan MacKinnon wasn’t done yet as he scored his hat trick at 17:14 of the third on a one-man end-to-end rush, and Colorado thought the game was in the bag.  Wait a minute, said St. Louis, as Robert Thomas scored his second goal of the game to tie things up again with 56 seconds left in the game.  Nobody was able to score in the remainder of regulation time, but at 3:38 of the first overtime period, Tyler Bozak blinked the light to win the game for St. Louis and extend the series to at least a sixth game.

Colorado is still a strong McDonald NHL Power Ratings strong favourite to win this series, as we’re giving them a 79.1% chance of winning the series, although that’s down from 92.3% after Game 4.  We are giving them less than a 50% chance of winning Game 6, as St. Louis is our 51/49 favourite in that contest.

Two games tonight: the New York Rangers travel to Carolina with that series tied 2 games apiece, and Calgary hosts Edmonton, with the Oilers holding a 3-1 lead in that series.  With a victory tonight at home, Edmonton would move on to the Conference Finals — we’re giving them a 47.0% chance of doing that tonight, but an 86.5% chance of winning it overall.

Yesterday’s Games

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)

• Colorado leads series 3-2
• Colorado now has a 79.1% chance of winning the series, down from 92.3%

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 79.1% chance of winning (▼13.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼63.0)
  • In 6 games: 49.0% (▲30.9)
  • In 7 games: 30.1% (▲18.9)
• St. Louis has a 20.9% chance of winning (▲13.2)
  • In 7 games: 20.9% (▲13.2)
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

NY Rangers at Carolina

• Series tied 2-2
• Carolina has a 57.1% chance of winning the series

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton at Calgary

• Edmonton leads series 3-1
• Edmonton has a 86.5% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1591, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Florida: 2 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
• May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
• May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 57.1%, NY Rangers 42.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
• NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
• NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers at Carolina
• May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 57.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 28.9%
  • In 7 games: 28.2%
• NY Rangers has a 42.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 20.5%
  • In 6 games: 22.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Colorado 79.1%, St. Louis 20.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 2 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis 5 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 79.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 49.0%
  • In 7 games: 30.1%
• St. Louis has a 20.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Calgary 13.5%, Edmonton 86.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
• Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

• Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
• May 26: Edmonton at Calgary
• May 28: Calgary at Edmonton (if necessary)
• May 30: Edmonton at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Calgary has a 13.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 13.5%
• Edmonton has a 86.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.7%
  • In 6 games: 29.7%
  • In 5 games: 47.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            22.6%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15.1%
 3       Florida Panthers              14.6%
 4       St. Louis Blues               11.7%
 5       Calgary Flames                11.6%
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning            9.2%
 7       New York Rangers               7.8%
 8       Edmonton Oilers                7.2%

These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.

Two more Game 4s last night, but neither of those series could end in a sweep, as they were both 2-1.

In the first game, Carolina visited New York to play the Rangers.  Ever the bad hosts, the Rangers won the game 4-1 to tie the series at 2 games apiece.  In all four games of the series, the home team has won.  In fact, Carolina has lost all 5 of their road games these playoffs, but won all of their home games!  Andrew Copp led the Rangers with a goal and two assists.  With the win, New York now has a 42.9% chance of winning the series.  That doesn’t seem like much, but it’s up 17.1 percentage points from before the game!

In the second game, the Battle of Alberta continued in Edmonton.  After falling behind 3-0, Calgary battled back and tied the game halfway through the third period, with the third goal coming on a 132 foot shot from their own blue line that fooled Oilers goalie Mike Smith.  But, Edmonton scored again five minutes later to take a 4-3 lead, and iced it with an empty netter.  Edmonton was led by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evander Kane, who both scored twice, and Leon Draisaitl, who assisted on three goals.  Draisaitl is the first player in NHL history to have at least three points in four straight playoff games.  Connor McDavid, who had two assists, has scored at least two points in seven games, which ties him for the second-longest multipoint streak in NHL history; Darryl Sittler for Toronto in 1977 and Tony Currie for St. Louis in 1981 also had a seven game streak.  Wayne Gretzky holds the record for longest such streak, with eight games in 1983.

With the win, Edmonton leads the series 3-1 as the teams head to Calgary for Game 5.  We’ve calculated that Edmonton has an 86.5% chance of winning the series, up from 67.9% after Game 3.  They have a 47.0% chance of winning it in the next game.

There’s only one game on the slate tonight, as St. Louis plays in Colorado.  Colorado leads that series 3-1, and we’re giving them a 92.3% chance of winning the series, with a 63.0% chance of winning it tonight.

Yesterday’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4

• Series tied 2-2
• Carolina now has a 57.1% chance of winning the series, down from 74.2%

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers at Carolina
• May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 57.1% chance of winning (▼17.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼30.8)
  • In 6 games: 28.9% (▲5.2)
  • In 7 games: 28.2% (▲8.5)
• NY Rangers has a 42.9% chance of winning (▲17.1)
  • In 7 games: 20.5% (▲6.2)
  • In 6 games: 22.5% (▲11.0)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5

• Edmonton leads series 3-1
• Edmonton now has a 86.5% chance of winning the series, up from 67.9%

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
• May 26: Edmonton at Calgary
• May 28: Calgary at Edmonton (if necessary)
• May 30: Edmonton at Calgary (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Calgary has a 13.5% chance of winning (▼18.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼12.2)
  • In 7 games: 13.5% (▼6.3)
• Edmonton has a 86.5% chance of winning (▲18.6)
  • In 7 games: 9.7% (▼5.0)
  • In 6 games: 29.7% (▲2.8)
  • In 5 games: 47.0% (▲20.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

St. Louis at Colorado

• Colorado leads series 3-1
• Colorado has a 92.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1591, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Florida: 2 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
• May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
• May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 57.1%, NY Rangers 42.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
• NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
• NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
• May 26: NY Rangers at Carolina
• May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 57.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 28.9%
  • In 7 games: 28.2%
• NY Rangers has a 42.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 20.5%
  • In 6 games: 22.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Colorado 92.3%, St. Louis 7.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 2 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 92.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 63.0%
  • In 6 games: 18.1%
  • In 7 games: 11.2%
• St. Louis has a 7.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.7%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Calgary 13.5%, Edmonton 86.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
• Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

• Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
• May 26: Edmonton at Calgary
• May 28: Calgary at Edmonton (if necessary)
• May 30: Edmonton at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Calgary has a 13.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 13.5%
• Edmonton has a 86.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.7%
  • In 6 games: 29.7%
  • In 5 games: 47.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            22.6%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15.1%
 3       Florida Panthers              14.6%
 4       St. Louis Blues               11.7%
 5       Calgary Flames                11.6%
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning            9.2%
 7       New York Rangers               7.8%
 8       Edmonton Oilers                7.2%

These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.

Yesterday was the first pair of Game 4s in the Division Finals, and one of those series ended with a sweep!

In the first game of the day, Florida travelled to Tampa Bay, down 3 games to 0.  Remember, Florida won the President’s Trophy this year.  That curse seemed to work against them, as the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions shut them out 2-0, and swept the Atlantic Division finals 4 games to 0.  Andrei Vasilevskiy got the shutout for the Lightning, stopping all 49 (49!!!) shots he faced.  The shutout was his sixth in a series-clinching win, the most in NHL history.  Tampa Bay has now won 10 straight playoff series, one of only three teams to have ever done so.  The others were the New York Islanders (19 straight between 1980 and 1984), and the Montreal Canadiens (13 straight from 1975 to 1980, and 10 straight from 1955 to 1960).  Tampa Bay will face the winner of the Metropolitan Division final, either Carolina or the New York Rangers.

In the other game, Colorado played in St. Louis, with Colorado leading the series 2-1.  Nazem Kadri scored a hat trick for Colorado, leading the Avalanche to a 6-3 victory.  We’re now giving Colorado a 92.3% chance of winning the series.  Colorado is the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team, and is our favourite to win the Stanley Cup.

There are two games tonight, both Game 4s.  In the first game, Carolina is in New York to play the Rangers, leading 2 games to 1.  We give Carolina a 74.2% chance of winning the series.  In the second game, in the Battle of Alberta, Edmonton hosts Calgary, with Edmonton holding a 2-1 lead in their series.  Although Calgary is the higher ranked team, with two games remaining in Edmonton and two in Calgary, we’re giving Edmonton the edge with a 67.9% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

• Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
• May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
• May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3

• Colorado leads series 3-1
• Colorado now has a 92.3% chance of winning the series, up from 74.9%

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 92.3% chance of winning (▲17.4)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 63.0% (▲31.5)
  • In 6 games: 18.1% (▼5.4)
  • In 7 games: 11.2% (▼8.7)
• St. Louis has a 7.7% chance of winning (▼17.4)
  • In 7 games: 7.7% (▼6.1)
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼11.3)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Carolina at NY Rangers

• Carolina leads series 2-1
• Carolina has a 74.2% chance of winning the series

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Calgary at Edmonton

• Edmonton leads series 2-1
• Edmonton has a 67.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1591, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Florida: 2 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
• May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
• May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 74.2%, NY Rangers 25.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
• NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
• NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
• May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
• May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
• May 24: Carolina at NY Rangers
• May 26: NY Rangers at Carolina
• May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 74.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 30.8%
  • In 6 games: 23.7%
  • In 7 games: 19.7%
• NY Rangers has a 25.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.3%
  • In 6 games: 11.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Colorado 92.3%, St. Louis 7.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 2 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
• May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 92.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 63.0%
  • In 6 games: 18.1%
  • In 7 games: 11.2%
• St. Louis has a 7.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.7%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Calgary 32.1%, Edmonton 67.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
• Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

• Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
• May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
• May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
• May 24: Calgary at Edmonton
• May 26: Edmonton at Calgary
• May 28: Calgary at Edmonton (if necessary)
• May 30: Edmonton at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Calgary has a 32.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 12.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.8%
• Edmonton has a 67.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.7%
  • In 6 games: 26.9%
  • In 5 games: 26.3%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            22.6%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15.1%
 3       Florida Panthers              14.6%
 4       St. Louis Blues               11.7%
 5       Calgary Flames                11.6%
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning            9.2%
 7       New York Rangers               7.8%
 8       Edmonton Oilers                7.2%

These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.

Although the 2nd round of the playoffs have already started, I wasn’t able to get my playoff preview done because I had such crappy internet access on the cruise ship.  But, better late than never — here’s the McDonald NHL Power Ratings 2nd Round Playoff Preview!  You can also think of the 2nd Round as the Division Finals.

The 1st round was pretty exciting, as 5 of the series went 7 games, and 2 of those Game 7s went into overtime!  2 other series went 6 games, and one series ended in a sweep. All the teams that finished first in their division won over the wildcard teams, but two of the teams that finished third defeated 2nd-place teams, although in one of those, we had the 3rd-place team ranked higher.  And of course, Toronto disappointed their fans with a 7-game series loss to the 2-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning.

In the Eastern Conference, here were the results:

• Atlantic Division:
  • Florida (1st) defeated Washington (WC2) in 6 games
  • Tampa Bay (3rd) defeated Toronto (2nd) in 7 games
• Metropolitan Division:
  • Carolina (1st) defeated Boston (WC1) in 7 games
  • NY Rangers (2nd) defeated Pittsburgh (3rd) in 7 games

And in the Western Conference:

• Central Division:
  • Colorado (1st) defeated Nashville (WC2) in 4 games
  • St. Louis (3rd) defeated Minnesota (2nd) in 6 games
• Pacific Division:
  • Calgary (1st) defeated Dallas (WC1) in 7 games
  • Edmonton (2nd) defeated Los Angeles (3rd) in 7 games

After adjusting our ratings from the 1st round of the playoffs, Colorado remains our top-ranked team.  They are also the favourites to win the Stanley Cup, as we’ve calculated that they have a 22.6% chance of winning it all.  Only one team that was defeated in the first round remained above the remaining playoff teams, as our ratings now show Toronto would be ranked 5th.  Carolina and St. Louis are now tied for 2nd in our rankings.

There should be some good series in this next round as well!  We’re giving the biggest edge in a series to Colorado, who have only a 59% chance of defeated 2nd-ranked St. Louis, as well as Carolina, who also have a 59% chance of defeating the Rangers.  The other two series are equally close, as we’re giving Florida a 56% chance of defeating Tampa Bay, and Calgary a 56% chance of defeating Edmonton.

The Battle of Alberta!!!  That series should be exciting!  The two teams played each other 4 times this year, and in all 4 games, the home team won.  They seem pretty evenly matched, although we are giving Calgary the edge.  Unfortunately, these are the only two Canadian teams remaining.  We’ve now calculated that there’s an 18.9% chance of a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup, down from 27.2% before the first round.

Finally, we’re calculating that there’s a 46.7% chance of an Eastern Conference team winning the Stanley Cup (down from 50.4%), and a 53.3% chance of a Western Conference team winning (up from 49.6%).

Here’s our summary!

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Chances of winning: Florida 56%, Tampa Bay 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1591, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Florida: 2 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd)  in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 19: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 23: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 25: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
• May 27: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 29: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 56.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 9.1%
  • In 5 games: 16.6%
  • In 6 games: 14.6%
  • In 7 games: 15.9%
• Tampa Bay has a 43.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.7%
  • In 6 games: 15.1%
  • In 5 games: 10.6%
  • In 4 games: 6.4%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)

Chances of winning: Carolina 59%, NY Rangers 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
• NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• NY Rangers: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
• NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: NY Rangers at Carolina
• May 20: NY Rangers at Carolina
• May 22: Carolina at NY Rangers
• May 24: Carolina at NY Rangers
• May 26: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 59.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 10.3%
  • In 5 games: 17.8%
  • In 6 games: 15.1%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• New York Rangers has a 40.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.2%
  • In 6 games: 14.1%
  • In 5 games: 9.6%
  • In 4 games: 5.8%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 59%, St. Louis 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 2 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win

Last round:

• Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
• St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 19: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 59.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 10.3%
  • In 5 games: 17.8%
  • In 6 games: 15.0%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• St. Louis has a 40.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.2%
  • In 6 games: 14.2%
  • In 5 games: 9.6%
  • In 4 games: 5.8%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Chances of winning: Calgary 56%, Edmonton 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
• Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins

Last round:

• Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
• Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 18: Edmonton at Calgary
• May 20: Edmonton at Calgary
• May 22: Calgary at Edmonton
• May 24: Calgary at Edmonton
• May 26: Edmonton at Calgary (if necessary)
• May 28: Calgary at Edmonton (if necessary)
• May 30: Edmonton at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Calgary has a 56.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 9.1%
  • In 5 games: 16.7%
  • In 6 games: 14.6%
  • In 7 games: 15.9%
• Edmonton has a 43.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.7%
  • In 6 games: 15.0%
  • In 5 games: 10.5%
  • In 4 games: 6.5%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            22.6%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15.1%
 3       Florida Panthers              14.6%
 4       St. Louis Blues               11.7%
 5       Calgary Flames                11.6%
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning            9.2%
 7       New York Rangers               7.8%
 8       Edmonton Oilers                7.2%

 

The last of the first round Game 4s were played last night, and of the eight series, only one ended in a sweep.  And, there’s only one more that might potentially end in 5 games!  First round series aren’t usually so close, so it’s making for some exciting hockey.

In the first game of the day, Florida played in Washington, with the Capitals holding a 2-1 game lead in the series.  In a tight game, the game was tied 1-1 after one period.  No one scored in the 2nd, and in the third, Washington scored half-way through the third.  With the goalie pulled, Sam Reinhart scored with 2 minutes left to tie the game and send it into overtime.  5 minutes into the overtime period, Carter Verhaeghe scored for Florida to give them a 3-2 victory and a 2-2 tie in the series.  The President’s Trophy-winning Panthers now have a 61.7% chance of winning the series, a whopping jump of 23.1 percentage points!

In the second game, the Rangers played in Pittsburgh, down 2 games to 1.  Hoping to avenge their 7-4 loss in Game 3, New York was unsuccessful, as Pittsburgh scored 5 goals in the second period and eventually won the game 7-2.  Sidney Crosby had a goal and two assists, giving him a career playoff point total of 200.  Igor Shersterkin was pulled from the net by the Rangers for the second straight game after allowing 6 goals on 30 shots, but the Ranger coach didn’t blame him: “Total team disappointment.  It’s a team effort.”, said Gerard Gallant.  With the 3-1 series lead, we’re now giving Pittsburgh an 85.7% chance of winning the series.

The third game of the night had Colorado visiting Nashville, up 3-0 in the series.  Colorado is the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team, and the team we figure has the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  They showed why last night, as they beat the Predators 5-3 to sweep the series.  Colorado outscored Nashville 21-9 in the series, and only trailed once.  Colorado will face either St. Louis or Minnesota in the next round of the playoffs.

In the final game of the night, Calgary faced Dallas on the road, needing a win as they were trailing in the series 2-1.  They didn’t disappoint their fans watching at home, as the Flames won 4-1.  Despite giving up 3 goals (Calgary’s fourth goal was an empty-netter), goalie Jake Oettinger stopped 50 shots for Dallas!  In a night of coaching quotes, Stars coach Rick Bowness quipped, “They were really good, and we were really bad”.  The teams head back to Calgary for Game 5 with the series tied 2 games apiece.  We’re giving Calgary the edge, with a 65.9% probability of winning the series.

There are four games on tap tonight, with all four series tied 2-2!  It’s make or break time!

Yesterday’s Games

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Florida 3 at Washington 2 (OT)

• Series tied 2-2
• Florida now has a 61.7% chance of winning the series, up from 38.6%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
• May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
• May 7: Florida 1 at Washington 6
• May 9: Florida 3 at Washington 2 (OT)
• May 11: Washington at Florida
• May 13: Florida at Washington
• May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Florida has a 61.7% chance of winning (▲23.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 32.2% (▲16.7)
  • In 7 games: 29.5% (▲6.4)
• Washington has a 38.3% chance of winning (▼23.1)
  • In 7 games: 18.5% (▲4.1)
  • In 6 games: 19.8% (▼5.3)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼21.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

NY Rangers 2 at Pittsburgh 7

• Pittsburgh leads series 3-1
• Pittsburgh now has a 85.7% chance of winning the series, up from 66.5%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
• May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 7: NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7
• May 9: NY Rangers 2 at Pittsburgh 7
• May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
• May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 14.3% chance of winning (▼19.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼13.0)
  • In 7 games: 14.3% (▼6.2)
• Pittsburgh has a 85.7% chance of winning (▲19.2)
  • In 7 games: 9.9% (▼4.7)
  • In 6 games: 29.7% (▲3.2)
  • In 5 games: 46.0% (▲20.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado 5 at Nashville 3

• Colorado wins series 4-0

Series schedule:

• May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
• May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• May 7: Colorado 7 at Nashville 3
• May 9: Colorado 5 at Nashville 3

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Calgary 4 at Dallas 1

• Series tied 2-2
• Calgary now has a 65.9% chance of winning the series, up from 43.9%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
• May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
• May 7: Calgary 2 at Dallas 4
• May 9: Calgary 4 at Dallas 1
• May 11: Dallas at Calgary
• May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
• May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Calgary has a 65.9% chance of winning (▲22.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 35.8% (▲17.2)
  • In 7 games: 30.2% (▲4.9)
• Dallas has a 34.1% chance of winning (▼22.0)
  • In 7 games: 16.9% (▲2.8)
  • In 6 games: 17.1% (▼6.2)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼18.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Boston at Carolina

• Series tied 2-2
• Carolina has a 58.5% chance of winning the series

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay at Toronto

• Series tied 2-2
• Toronto has a 59.2% chance of winning the series

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

St. Louis at Minnesota

• Series tied 2-2
• Minnesota has a 51.8% chance of winning the series

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Los Angeles at Edmonton

• Series tied 2-2
• Edmonton has a 57.5% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Florida 61.7%, Washington 38.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1581, 6th overall
• Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
• Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 7-3-0
• Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
• May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
• May 7: Florida 1 at Washington 6
• May 9: Florida 3 at Washington 2 (OT)
• May 11: Washington at Florida
• May 13: Florida at Washington
• May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 61.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 32.2%
  • In 7 games: 29.5%
• Washington has a 38.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.5%
  • In 6 games: 19.8%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Toronto 59.2%, Tampa Bay 40.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
• Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-2-1
• Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

• May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
• May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
• May 6: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2
• May 8: Toronto 3 at Tampa Bay 7
• May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
• May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay
• May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 59.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 30.6%
  • In 7 games: 28.6%
• Tampa Bay has a 40.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.1%
  • In 6 games: 21.7%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 58.5%, Boston 41.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
• Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 8-2-0
• Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

• May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
• May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
• May 6: Carolina 2 at Boston 4
• May 8: Carolina 2 at Boston 5
• May 10: Boston at Carolina
• May 12: Carolina at Boston
• May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 58.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 30.0%
  • In 7 games: 28.5%
• Boston has a 41.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.9%
  • In 6 games: 21.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 14.3%, Pittsburgh 85.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
• Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
• Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• NY Rangers: 6-4-0
• Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

• May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
• May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 7: NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7
• May 9: NY Rangers 2 at Pittsburgh 7
• May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
• May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 14.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.3%
• Pittsburgh has a 85.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.9%
  • In 6 games: 29.7%
  • In 5 games: 46.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
• Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win
• Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 4-5-1
• Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
• May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• May 7: Colorado 7 at Nashville 3
• May 9: Colorado 5 at Nashville 3

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Minnesota 51.8%, St. Louis 48.2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
• St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Minnesota: 0 wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Minnesota: 8-1-1
• St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
• May 6: Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 8: Minnesota 2 at St. Louis 5
• May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
• May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis
• May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Minnesota has a 51.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 25.3%
  • In 7 games: 26.4%
• St. Louis has a 48.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 21.7%
  • In 6 games: 26.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Calgary 65.9%, Dallas 34.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
• Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Calgary: 6-2-2
• Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
• May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
• May 7: Calgary 2 at Dallas 4
• May 9: Calgary 4 at Dallas 1
• May 11: Dallas at Calgary
• May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
• May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Calgary has a 65.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 35.8%
  • In 7 games: 30.2%
• Dallas has a 34.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 16.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Edmonton 57.5%, Los Angeles 42.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
• Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-2-1
• Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
• May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
• May 6: Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2
• May 8: Edmonton 0 at Los Angeles 4
• May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
• May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles
• May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 57.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 28.9%
  • In 7 games: 28.5%
• Los Angeles has a 42.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.9%
  • In 6 games: 22.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

 

Yesterday was the start of the Game 4s in the first round playoffs, and after 4 games, each of those series is tied 2 games apiece!  So, we’re down to a best-of-3 in those.

In the first game of the day, Boston defeated Carolina 5-2.  Brad Marchand was the star of the game, scoring twice and assisting on the other three Bruin goals.  Carolina lead 2-1 early in the second period, but it was all Boston after that, as they scored 4 straight unanswered goals, the final one coming on an empty net.  Only three players in Bruins history have scored more points in a playoff game, all with six: Phil Esposito in 1969, Rick Middleton in 1983, and David Pastrnak in 2018.  Despite the Boston win, Carolina is still the favourite to win the series, with a 58.5% chance, as two of the remaining three games will be played in Carolina.

The second game saw Minnesota visiting St. Louis.  After a split in Minnesota, St. Louis lost in the last game at home, so they were desperate for a win, and they came through with a 5-2 victory.  David Perron and Jordan Kyrou each scored two goals for the Blues, and Jordan Binnington got the win in the net, his first playoff win after losing nine straight since getting the win in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals in 2019.  With two of the next three games being played back in Minnesota, we’re giving the Wild the slightest of edges to take the series, 51.8% to 48.2%!

The third game of the day featured Tampa Bay at home against Toronto.  Game 3 in the series saw Toronto win 5-2, but this was Tampa Bay’s day, as they skated to a 7-3 victory.  Tampa Bay came out hard, scoring three times in the first 8 minutes, and led 5-0 after two periods before Toronto finally got on track.  Ross Colton scored twice for the Lightning, and William Nylander also scored twice for Toronto, his first goals of the playoffs.  The teams head back to Toronto, with the boys in the back room calculating that Toronto still has a 59.2% chance of winning the series.

And in the final game of the day, Edmonton played in Los Angeles.  After getting thumped 8-2 in the previous game, Los Angeles looked for revenge, and got it, thanks to Jonathan Quick’s shutout in net.  The final score was 4-0 LA, despite Mike Smith making 42 saves in net for Edmonton.  Game 5 goes in Edmonton, and we’re giving the Oilers a 57.5% chance of winning the series.

Four more Game 4s go tonight, with only the Nashville vs. Colorado series potentially ending tonight, as the Avalanche hold a 3 games to 0 lead.  We’ve calculated that Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning the series, and a 61.0% chance of wrapping it up tonight.

Yesterday’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina 2 at Boston 5

• Series tied 2-2
• Carolina now has a 58.5% chance of winning the series, down from 75.6%

Series schedule:

• May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
• May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
• May 6: Carolina 2 at Boston 4
• May 8: Carolina 2 at Boston 5
• May 10: Boston at Carolina
• May 12: Carolina at Boston
• May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 58.5% chance of winning (▼17.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼32.0)
  • In 6 games: 30.0% (▲6.0)
  • In 7 games: 28.5% (▲8.9)
• Boston has a 41.5% chance of winning (▲17.1)
  • In 7 games: 19.9% (▲6.3)
  • In 6 games: 21.6% (▲10.8)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Minnesota 2 at St. Louis 5

• Series tied 2-2
• Minnesota now has a 51.8% chance of winning the series, down from 69.3%

Series schedule:

• May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
• May 6: Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 8: Minnesota 2 at St. Louis 5
• May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
• May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis
• May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Minnesota has a 51.8% chance of winning (▼17.5)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼27.2)
  • In 6 games: 25.3% (▲3.2)
  • In 7 games: 26.4% (▲6.4)
• St. Louis has a 48.2% chance of winning (▲17.5)
  • In 7 games: 21.7% (▲5.3)
  • In 6 games: 26.5% (▲12.2)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto 3 at Tampa Bay 7

• Series tied 2-2
• Toronto now has a 59.2% chance of winning the series, down from 76.3%

Series schedule:

• May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
• May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
• May 6: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2
• May 8: Toronto 3 at Tampa Bay 7
• May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
• May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay
• May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Toronto has a 59.2% chance of winning (▼17.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼32.6)
  • In 6 games: 30.6% (▲6.4)
  • In 7 games: 28.6% (▲9.1)
• Tampa Bay has a 40.8% chance of winning (▲17.1)
  • In 7 games: 19.1% (▲6.0)
  • In 6 games: 21.7% (▲11.1)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Edmonton 0 at Los Angeles 4

• Series tied 2-2
• Edmonton now has a 57.5% chance of winning the series, down from 74.9%

Series schedule:

• May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
• May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
• May 6: Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2
• May 8: Edmonton 0 at Los Angeles 4
• May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
• May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles
• May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 57.5% chance of winning (▼17.4)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼31.5)
  • In 6 games: 28.9% (▲5.3)
  • In 7 games: 28.5% (▲8.7)
• Los Angeles has a 42.5% chance of winning (▲17.4)
  • In 7 games: 19.9% (▲6.1)
  • In 6 games: 22.6% (▲11.3)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Florida at Washington

• Washington leads series 2-1
• Washington has a 61.4% chance of winning the series

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

NY Rangers at Pittsburgh

• Pittsburgh leads series 2-1
• Pittsburgh has a 66.5% chance of winning the series

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado at Nashville

• Colorado leads series 3-0
• Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning the series

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Calgary at Dallas

• Dallas leads series 2-1
• Dallas has a 56.1% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Washington leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Florida 38.6%, Washington 61.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1581, 6th overall
• Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
• Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 7-3-0
• Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
• May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
• May 7: Florida 1 at Washington 6
• May 9: Florida at Washington
• May 11: Washington at Florida
• May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
• May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 38.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.5%
  • In 7 games: 23.1%
• Washington has a 61.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.4%
  • In 6 games: 25.1%
  • In 5 games: 21.8%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Toronto 59.2%, Tampa Bay 40.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
• Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-2-1
• Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

• May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
• May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
• May 6: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2
• May 8: Toronto 3 at Tampa Bay 7
• May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
• May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay
• May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 59.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 30.6%
  • In 7 games: 28.6%
• Tampa Bay has a 40.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.1%
  • In 6 games: 21.7%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 58.5%, Boston 41.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
• Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 8-2-0
• Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

• May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
• May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
• May 6: Carolina 2 at Boston 4
• May 8: Carolina 2 at Boston 5
• May 10: Boston at Carolina
• May 12: Carolina at Boston
• May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 58.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 30.0%
  • In 7 games: 28.5%
• Boston has a 41.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.9%
  • In 6 games: 21.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 33.5%, Pittsburgh 66.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
• Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
• Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• NY Rangers: 6-4-0
• Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

• May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
• May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 7: NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7
• May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
• May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
• May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 33.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 13.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.5%
• Pittsburgh has a 66.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.6%
  • In 6 games: 26.5%
  • In 5 games: 25.3%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 98.2%, Nashville 1.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
• Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win
• Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 4-5-1
• Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
• May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• May 7: Colorado 7 at Nashville 3
• May 9: Colorado at Nashville
• May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 61.0%
  • In 5 games: 26.9%
  • In 6 games: 6.8%
  • In 7 games: 3.5%
• Nashville has a 1.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 1.8%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Minnesota 51.8%, St. Louis 48.2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
• St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Minnesota: 0 wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Minnesota: 8-1-1
• St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
• May 6: Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 8: Minnesota 2 at St. Louis 5
• May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
• May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis
• May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Minnesota has a 51.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 25.3%
  • In 7 games: 26.4%
• St. Louis has a 48.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 21.7%
  • In 6 games: 26.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Dallas leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Calgary 43.9%, Dallas 56.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
• Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Calgary: 6-2-2
• Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
• May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
• May 7: Calgary 2 at Dallas 4
• May 9: Calgary at Dallas
• May 11: Dallas at Calgary
• May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
• May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Calgary has a 43.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 18.6%
  • In 7 games: 25.3%
• Dallas has a 56.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.1%
  • In 6 games: 23.3%
  • In 5 games: 18.7%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Edmonton 57.5%, Los Angeles 42.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
• Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-2-1
• Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
• May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
• May 6: Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2
• May 8: Edmonton 0 at Los Angeles 4
• May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
• May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles
• May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 57.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 28.9%
  • In 7 games: 28.5%
• Los Angeles has a 42.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.9%
  • In 6 games: 22.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

 

Yesterday, the rest of the Game 3s were played.  Things seem pretty even in most of the series, as 7 of the 8 are currently sitting at 2 games to 1, with only one series possibly ending in a sweep.

The President’s Trophy curse reared its ugly head again in the first game, as Florida lost their game to Washington, 6-1, to go down 2 games to 1.  Florida scored first, just 2:45 into the first period, but that was it for them, as Washington scored 1 goal in the first period, 2 in the second, and 3 in the third to take the victory.  Ilya Samsonov got the win in net for the Capitals, his first playoff win.  Washington now has a 61.4% chance of winning the series, but you can’t count Florida out yet!

In the second game, Colorado dominated Nashville 7-3 to take a 3-0 lead in that series.  Gabriel Landeskog scored 2 goals and assisted on 2 others to lead the Avalanche.  Colorado goalie Darcy Kuemper was injured in the first period as he took a stick in the eye, but Pavel Francouz, his replacement, was solid to seal the win.  We don’t think there’s much chance for Nashville anymore, as the boys in the back room have calculated that Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning the series, and a 61.0% chance of sweeping.

The third game saw the New York Rangers travel to Pittsburgh.  The Penguins weren’t very congenial hosts, as they defeated the Rangers 7-4.  The game was much closer than the score would indicate, though.  The Penguins scored first, but the Rangers tied it.  Pittsburgh scored three more times in the first period to go up 4-1, but the Rangers came charging back in the second, scoring three of their own to even the game going into the 3rd period.  Pittsburgh broke the tie with a goal 11 minutes into the third, and iced the game by scoring two empty-netters at the end.  We’re now giving Pittsburgh, who finished 3rd in the Metropolitan Division behind the 2nd place Rangers, a 66.5% chance of winning the series.

In the final game of the night, Dallas headed home after splitting the two games in Calgary.  Home ice was good to the Stars, as they won 4-2.  Joe Pavelski scored twice for the Stars, including the game winner, his second game winner of the series.  Calgary has only scored three goals in the three games in this series, but are only down two games to one.  The algorithms now give Dallas a slight edge in this series, with a 56.1% chance of winning it.

Yesterday’s Games

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Florida 1 at Washington 6

• Washington leads series 2-1
• Washington now has a 61.4% chance of winning the series, up from 41.1%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
• May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
• May 7: Florida 1 at Washington 6
• May 9: Florida at Washington
• May 11: Washington at Florida
• May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
• May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Florida has a 38.6% chance of winning (▼20.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼17.8)
  • In 6 games: 15.5% (▼4.6)
  • In 7 games: 23.1% (▲2.1)
• Washington has a 61.4% chance of winning (▲20.3)
  • In 7 games: 14.4% (▲1.1)
  • In 6 games: 25.1% (▲8.0)
  • In 5 games: 21.8% (▲11.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado 7 at Nashville 3

• Colorado leads series 3-0
• Colorado now has a 98.2% chance of winning the series, up from 92.2%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
• May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• May 7: Colorado 7 at Nashville 3
• May 9: Colorado at Nashville
• May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning (▲6.0)
  • In 4 games: 61.0% (▲24.4)
  • In 5 games: 26.9% (▼5.0)
  • In 6 games: 6.8% (▼7.5)
  • In 7 games: 3.5% (▼5.8)
• Nashville has a 1.8% chance of winning (▼6.0)
  • In 7 games: 1.8% (▼3.2)
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼2.8)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7

• Pittsburgh leads series 2-1
• Pittsburgh now has a 66.5% chance of winning the series, up from 47.4%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
• May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 7: NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7
• May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
• May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
• May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 33.5% chance of winning (▼19.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼14.5)
  • In 6 games: 13.0% (▼5.0)
  • In 7 games: 20.5% (▲0.3)
• Pittsburgh has a 66.5% chance of winning (▲19.1)
  • In 7 games: 14.6% (▲0.1)
  • In 6 games: 26.5% (▲7.0)
  • In 5 games: 25.3% (▲11.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Calgary 2 at Dallas 4

• Dallas leads series 2-1
• Dallas now has a 56.1% chance of winning the series, up from 35.4%

Series schedule:

• May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
• May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
• May 7: Calgary 2 at Dallas 4
• May 9: Calgary at Dallas
• May 11: Dallas at Calgary
• May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
• May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Calgary has a 43.9% chance of winning (▼20.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼20.9)
  • In 6 games: 18.6% (▼3.6)
  • In 7 games: 25.3% (▲3.9)
• Dallas has a 56.1% chance of winning (▲20.7)
  • In 7 games: 14.1% (▲2.0)
  • In 6 games: 23.3% (▲8.5)
  • In 5 games: 18.7% (▲10.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina at Boston

• Carolina leads series 2-1
• Carolina has a 75.6% chance of winning the series

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Minnesota at St. Louis

• Minnesota leads series 2-1
• Minnesota has a 69.3% chance of winning the series

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto at Tampa Bay

• Toronto leads series 2-1
• Toronto has a 76.3% chance of winning the series

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Edmonton at Los Angeles

• Edmonton leads series 2-1
• Edmonton has a 74.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Washington leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Florida 38.6%, Washington 61.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1581, 6th overall
• Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
• Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 7-3-0
• Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
• May 5: Washington 1 at Florida 5
• May 7: Florida 1 at Washington 6
• May 9: Florida at Washington
• May 11: Washington at Florida
• May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
• May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 38.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.5%
  • In 7 games: 23.1%
• Washington has a 61.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.4%
  • In 6 games: 25.1%
  • In 5 games: 21.8%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 76.3%, Tampa Bay 23.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
• Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-2-1
• Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

• May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
• May 4: Tampa Bay 5 at Toronto 3
• May 6: Toronto 5 at Tampa Bay 2
• May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
• May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto
• May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 76.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 32.6%
  • In 6 games: 24.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.5%
• Tampa Bay has a 23.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.1%
  • In 6 games: 10.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 75.6%, Boston 24.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
• Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins
• Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 8-2-0
• Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

• May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
• May 4: Boston 2 at Carolina 5
• May 6: Carolina 2 at Boston 4
• May 8: Carolina at Boston
• May 10: Boston at Carolina
• May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
• May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 75.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 32.0%
  • In 6 games: 24.0%
  • In 7 games: 19.6%
• Boston has a 24.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.6%
  • In 6 games: 10.8%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 33.5%, Pittsburgh 66.5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
• Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
• Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• NY Rangers: 6-4-0
• Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

• May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
• May 5: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5
• May 7: NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 7
• May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
• May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
• May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 33.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 13.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.5%
• Pittsburgh has a 66.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.6%
  • In 6 games: 26.5%
  • In 5 games: 25.3%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 98.2%, Nashville 1.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
• Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win
• Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 4-5-1
• Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
• May 5: Nashville 1 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• May 7: Colorado 7 at Nashville 3
• May 9: Colorado at Nashville
• May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 98.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 61.0%
  • In 5 games: 26.9%
  • In 6 games: 6.8%
  • In 7 games: 3.5%
• Nashville has a 1.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 1.8%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Minnesota leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Minnesota 69.3%, St. Louis 30.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
• St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Minnesota: 0 wins
• St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Minnesota: 8-1-1
• St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 4: St. Louis 2 at Minnesota 6
• May 6: Minnesota 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
• May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota
• May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Minnesota has a 69.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 27.2%
  • In 6 games: 22.1%
  • In 7 games: 20.0%
• St. Louis has a 30.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 16.4%
  • In 6 games: 14.3%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Dallas leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Calgary 43.9%, Dallas 56.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
• Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Calgary: 2 regulation wins
• Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Calgary: 6-2-2
• Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
• May 5: Dallas 2 at Calgary 0
• May 7: Calgary 2 at Dallas 4
• May 9: Calgary at Dallas
• May 11: Dallas at Calgary
• May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
• May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Calgary has a 43.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 18.6%
  • In 7 games: 25.3%
• Dallas has a 56.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.1%
  • In 6 games: 23.3%
  • In 5 games: 18.7%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Edmonton leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Edmonton 74.9%, Los Angeles 25.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
• Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

• Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-2-1
• Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
• May 4: Los Angeles 0 at Edmonton 6
• May 6: Edmonton 8 at Los Angeles 2
• May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
• May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton
• May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
• May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 74.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 31.5%
  • In 6 games: 23.6%
  • In 7 games: 19.8%
• Los Angeles has a 25.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.8%
  • In 6 games: 11.3%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%