This is the second of my three catch-up McDonald NHL Power Rating reports, delayed because of a trans-atlantic cruise with no Internet access. As with the previous one, there is no insightful commentary on this one. However, look at Calgary!!! Where did they come from???
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1622, ▲11)
Record: 44-13-5, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 57% (▲22)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 19% (▲3)
Last week: 2-0-0
- March 15: Won 3-0 @ Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1516)
- March 18: Won 5-3 @ San Jose Sharks (22nd, 1450)
Next week:
- March 21: vs. Edmonton Oilers (13th, 1532)
- March 23: vs. Vancouver Canucks (20th, 1498)
- March 25: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (26th, 1426)
- March 27: @ Minnesota Wild (12th, 1534)
2 (tie). Calgary Flames ▲3 (1581, ▲7)
Record: 38-16-8, 1st in Pacific Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-1
- March 16: Won 6-3 vs. New Jersey Devils (30th, 1405)
- March 18: Lost in OT 1-0 vs. Buffalo Sabres (26th, 1426)
- March 19: Won 5-2 @ Vancouver Canucks (20th, 1498)
Next week:
- March 22: vs. San Jose Sharks (22nd, 1450)
- March 25: vs. Arizona Coyotes (25th, 1427)
- March 26: vs. Edmonton Oilers (13th, 1532)
2 (tie). Florida Panthers ▲1 (1581, ▼5)
Record: 42-14-6, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 26% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%
Last week: 2-1-0
- March 15: Won in OT 3-2 @ San Jose Sharks (22nd, 1450)
- March 17: Lost 5-3 @ Vegas Golden Knights (17th, 1512)
- March 18: Won 3-0 @ Anaheim Ducks (23rd, 1444)
Next week:
- March 24: @ Montreal Canadiens (32nd, 1398)
- March 26: @ Ottawa Senators (28th, 1420)
- March 27: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (9th, 1563)
4. Pittsburgh Penguins (1579, ▼1)
Record: 38-16-9, 3rd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%
Last week: 2-1-0
- March 15: Lost 4-1 @ Nashville Predators (11th, 1537)
- March 17: Won in SO 3-2 @ St. Louis Blues (10th, 1549)
- March 19: Won 4-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (25th, 1427)
Next week:
- March 22: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (21st, 1480)
- March 23: @ Buffalo Sabres (26th, 1426)
- March 25: @ New York Rangers (6th, 1572)
- March 27: vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1414)
5. Carolina Hurricanes ▼3 (1577, ▼18)
Record: 41-15-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▼21)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼3)
Last week: 0-2-1
- March 17: Lost 3-2 @ Toronto Maple Leafs (9th, 1563)
- March 18: Lost in SO 4-3 vs. Washington Capitals (14th, 1527)
- March 20: Lost 2-0 vs. New York Rangers (6th, 1572)
Next week:
- March 22: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (7th, 1566)
- March 24: vs. Dallas Stars (19th, 1499)
- March 26: @ St. Louis Blues (10th, 1549)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1622 (▲11) 2 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲3) 1581 (▲7) 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1) 1581 (▼5) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins 1579 (▼1) 5 Carolina Hurricanes (▼3) 1577 (▼18) 6 New York Rangers (▲1) 1572 (▲5) 7 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 1566 (▼4) 8 Boston Bruins 1564 (▼2) 9 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 1563 (▲6) 10 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 1549 (▼10) 11 Nashville Predators 1537 (▲7) 12 Minnesota Wild (▲2) 1534 (▲13) 13 Edmonton Oilers (▲2) 1532 (▲14) 14 Washington Capitals (▼2) 1527 (▼1) 15 Los Angeles Kings (▼2) 1516 (▼8) 16 Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 1513 (▲7) 17 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 1512 (▲9) 18 New York Islanders (▲2) 1503 (▲8) 19 Dallas Stars (▼1) 1499 (▼4) 20 Vancouver Canucks (▼4) 1498 (▼14) 21 Columbus Blue Jackets 1480 (▲10) 22 San Jose Sharks 1450 (▼2) 23 Anaheim Ducks 1444 (▼3) 24 Chicago Blackhawks 1429 (▼10) 25 Arizona Coyotes (▲2) 1427 (▲5) 26 (tie) Buffalo Sabres 1426 (▲1) 26 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲3) 1426 (▲11) 28 Ottawa Senators (▼3) 1420 (▼16) 29 Detroit Red Wings 1414 (▼1) 30 New Jersey Devils (▼2) 1405 (▼13) 31 Seattle Kraken (▲1) 1399 (▲2) 32 Montreal Canadiens (▼1) 1398
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 64% (▼19) 2 New York Rangers 22% (▲13) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins 13% (▲5) 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 4 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 4 (tie) Washington Capitals <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 76% (▲4) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 14% (▼4) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 8% (▲1) 4 Boston Bruins 3% 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 99% (▲2) 2 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) <1% 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 2 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) <1% 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1) <1% 2 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1) <1% 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1% (▼2) 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) <1%
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames 96% (▲5) 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 2% 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 2% (▼5) 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 4 (tie) Seattle Kraken <1% 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% 4 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes >99% 1 (tie) New York Rangers >99% 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins >99% 4 Washington Capitals 97% (▲3) 5 Columbus Blue Jackets 2% (▼2) 6 New York Islanders 1% (▼2) 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Boston Bruins >99% 1 (tie) Florida Panthers >99% 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs >99% 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche >99% 2 St. Louis Blues 96% (▼2) 3 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 95% (▲6) 4 Nashville Predators (▼1) 93% (▲3) 5 Dallas Stars 68% (▼2) 6 Winnipeg Jets 17% (▲1) 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames >99% 2 Los Angeles Kings 84% (▼6) 3 Edmonton Oilers 83% (▲16) 4 Vegas Golden Knights 49% (▲8) 5 Vancouver Canucks 12% (▼21) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 1% (▼1) 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks 1% (▼3) 8 Seattle Kraken <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 57% (▲22) 2 Florida Panthers (▲1) 26% (▲1) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 10% (▼21) 4 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) 2% (▲1) 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 2% (▼2) 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1) 1% 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 1% 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 1%
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 19% (▲3) 2 Calgary Flames (▲1) 10% (▲1) 3 Florida Panthers 9% 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼2) 8% (▼3) 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 8% 6 New York Rangers (▲1) 7% (▲1) 7 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 6% (▼1) 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3) 6% (▲1) 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2) 5% (▼1) 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2) 5% (▼1) 11 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲3) 3% (▲1) 11 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3) 3% (▲1) 11 (tie) Nashville Predators 3% 14 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼3) 2% (▼1) 14 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼3) 2% (▼1) 16 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2) 1% (▼1) 16 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 1% 16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 1% 19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼2) <1% (▼1)