Here’s the last of my three catch-up McDonald NHL Power Ratings reports, once again without my usual witty insights and insightful commentary. I was on a trans-atlantic cruise without Internet access for 16 days, so I got behind, but next week’s report should be back to normal.
Colorado remains the top rated team, and the most likely to win the Stanley Cup. Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Florida remain in the top 5, and Calgary has entered the top 5 during the time of my cruise. The playoff teams in the East seem pretty much decided, but there’s still some uncertainty in the West. There’s less than a month to go in the regular season, so things should get pretty exciting now!
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1610, ▼12)
Record: 46-14-6, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 51% (▼6)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 18% (▼1)
Last week: 2-1-1
- March 21: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Edmonton Oilers (13th, 1527)
- March 23: Lost 3-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (16th, 1518)
- March 25: Won 6-3 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (27th, 1422)
- March 27: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Minnesota Wild (10th, 1538)
Next week:
- March 29: @ Calgary Flames (3rd, 1580)
- March 31: vs. San Jose Sharks (22nd, 1462)
- April 2: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (4th, 1579)
2. Carolina Hurricanes ▲3 (1589, ▲12)
Record: 43-15-7, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 20% (▲10)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲2)
Last week: 2-0-1
- March 22: Won 3-2 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1558)
- March 24: Lost in SO 4-3 vs. Dallas Stars (19th, 1500)
- March 26: Won 7-2 @ St. Louis Blues (10th, 1538)
Next week:
- March 28: @ Washington Capitals (15th, 1523)
- March 29: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1558)
- March 31: vs. Montreal Canadiens (30th, 1407)
- April 2: vs. Minnesota Wild (10th, 1538)
3. Calgary Flames ▼1 (1580, ▼1)
Record: 40-17-8, 1st in Pacific Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10%
Last week: 2-1-0
- March 22: Lost 4-3 vs. San Jose Sharks (22nd, 1462)
- March 25: Won 4-2 vs. Arizona Coyotes (28th, 1417)
- March 26: Won 9-5 vs. Edmonton Oilers (13th, 1527)
Next week:
- March 29: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1610)
- March 31: vs. Los Angeles Kings (14th, 1524)
- April 2: vs. St. Louis Blues (10th, 1538)
4. Pittsburgh Penguins (1579)
Record: 40-17-10, 2nd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%
Last week: 2-1-1
- March 22: Won 5-1 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (21st, 1478)
- March 23: Lost in SO 4-3 @ Buffalo Sabres (24th, 1433)
- March 25: Lost 5-1 @ New York Rangers (7th, 1565)
- March 27: Won 11-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1414)
Next week:
- March 29: vs. New York Rangers (7th, 1565)
- March 31: @ Minnesota Wild (10th, 1538)
- April 2: @ Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1610)
5. Florida Panthers ▼3 (1576, ▼5)
Record: 44-15-6, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 25% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- March 24: Won 4-3 @ Montreal Canadiens (30th, 1407)
- March 26: Won in SO 4-3 @ Ottawa Senators (25th, 1429)
- March 27: Lost 5-2 @ Toronto Maple Leafs (8th, 1564)
Next week:
- March 29: vs. Montreal Canadiens (30th, 1407)
- March 31: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (23rd, 1443)
- April 2: @ New Jersey Devils (31st, 1405)
- April 3: @ Buffalo Sabres (24th, 1433)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1610 (▼12) 2 Carolina Hurricanes (▲3) 1589 (▲12) 3 Calgary Flames (▼1) 1580 (▼1) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins 1579 5 Florida Panthers (▼3) 1576 (▼5) 6 Boston Bruins (▲2) 1574 (▲10) 7 New York Rangers (▼1) 1565 (▼7) 8 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 1564 (▲1) 9 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2) 1558 (▼8) 10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2) 1538 (▲4) 10 (tie) St. Louis Blues 1538 (▼11) 12 Nashville Predators (▼1) 1534 (▼3) 13 Edmonton Oilers 1527 (▼5) 14 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 1524 (▲8) 15 Washington Capitals (▼1) 1523 (▼4) 16 Vancouver Canucks (▲4) 1518 (▲20) 17 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 1505 (▼7) 17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 1505 (▼8) 19 (tie) Dallas Stars 1500 (▲1) 19 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1) 1500 (▼3) 21 Columbus Blue Jackets 1478 (▼2) 22 San Jose Sharks 1462 (▲12) 23 Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 1443 (▲14) 24 Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 1433 (▲7) 25 Ottawa Senators (▲3) 1429 (▲9) 26 Anaheim Ducks (▼3) 1423 (▼21) 27 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 1422 (▼4) 28 Arizona Coyotes (▼3) 1417 (▼10) 29 Detroit Red Wings 1414 30 Montreal Canadiens (▲2) 1407 (▲9) 31 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 1405 32 Seattle Kraken (▼1) 1404 (▲5)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 80% (▲16) 2 New York Rangers 13% (▼9) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins 6% (▼7) 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 4 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 4 (tie) Washington Capitals <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 78% (▲2) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 9% (▼5) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 7% (▼1) 4 Boston Bruins 6% (▲3) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 99% 2 Minnesota Wild 1% (▲1) 3 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1) <1% 3 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) <1% 3 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1) <1% 3 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) <1% 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1) <1% 3 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) <1%
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames 97% (▲1) 2 Los Angeles Kings 3% (▲1) 3 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 1% (▼1) 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 4 (tie) Seattle Kraken <1% 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% 4 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes >99% 1 (tie) New York Rangers >99% 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins >99% 4 Washington Capitals 99% (▲2) 5 Columbus Blue Jackets 1% (▼1) 6 (tie) New York Islanders <1% (▼1) 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) <1%
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Boston Bruins >99% 1 (tie) Florida Panthers >99% 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs >99% 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche >99% 2 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 99% (▲4) 3 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 93% (▼3) 4 Nashville Predators 92% (▼1) 5 Dallas Stars 73% (▲5) 6 Winnipeg Jets 15% (▼2) 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames >99% 2 Los Angeles Kings 90% (▲6) 3 Edmonton Oilers 74% (▼9) 4 Vegas Golden Knights 37% (▼12) 5 Vancouver Canucks 25% (▲13) 6 San Jose Sharks 1% 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1) <1% (▼1) 7 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 51% (▼6) 2 Florida Panthers 25% (▼1) 3 Carolina Hurricanes 20% (▲10) 4 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲5) 1% (▲1) 4 (tie) Calgary Flames 1% (▼1) 4 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2) 1% 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 1% (▼1) 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2) 1%
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 18% (▼1) 2 (tie) Calgary Flames 10% 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲2) 10% (▲2) 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1) 8% (▼1) 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 8% 6 Boston Bruins (▲3) 7% (▲2) 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1) 6% (▼1) 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 6% 9 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2) 5% (▼1) 10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1) 4% (▲1) 10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1) 4% (▼1) 12 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 3% 12 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 3% (▲1) 12 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) 3% 15 Washington Capitals (▼1) 2% 16 (tie) Dallas Stars 1% 16 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲3) 1% (▲1) 16 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 1% 19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 19 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 19 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 19 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 19 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 19 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 19 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 19 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 19 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 19 (tie) Seattle Kraken <1% 19 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼3) <1% (▼1)