Two teams re-entered the McDonald NHL Power Rankings this week, and so of course two teams dropped out, but there was no change in our top 3.
The top-ranked team continues to be Colorado. They had a weak week, going 1-1-1 and dropping 9 rating points, but second-ranked Carolina also had a weak week (I like that!), despite going 2-1-1, so Colorado remains at the top. Colorado started off the week with a home victory over the 20th-ranked New York Islanders, but then lost away against 29th-ranked Arizona (29th-ranked Arizona!!!), then an overtime loss at home to 6th-ranked Calgary. After those two losses, we’ve dropped our estimate of their chances of winning the President’s Trophy down from 45%, a decrease of 7%. We’ve also revised their chances of winning the Stanley Cup, from 19% last week down to 17% this week.
Carolina started the week with two losses, an overtime loss to 25th-ranked Detroit and a regulation shutout from 16th-ranked Washington. They turned it around with an overtime win against 4th-ranked Pittsburgh and a regulation win against 32nd-ranked Seattle. But, because of the two losses, and needing overtime in their Pittsburgh win, we’ve decreased their rating points by 10, still good enough for 2nd in our rankings.
Tampa Bay was ranked 3rd last week, and they retain that ranking this week, but they’re moving closer to the top 2! They are currently only 6 rating points behind Carolina after going 3-1-0 this week. They had wins against 24th-ranked Ottawa and 25th-ranked Detroit and Chicago (they’re both tied in 25th), but lost to 4th-ranked Pittsburgh. Still, the 3 wins were enough for them to pick up 4 rating points and move them a little closer to 2nd in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.
Pittsburgh only had two games this week, but both on the road against tough teams! They beat 3rd-ranked Tampa Bay, then 2nd-ranked Carolina needed overtime to beat them. Despite going 1-0-1 this week, we still awarded them 10 rating points, which moved them from 7th in our rankings back up to 4th.
The New York Rangers round out our top 5, tied with Pittsburgh in 4th. They went 3-0-0 this week, defeating 10th-ranked St. Louis, 27th-ranked New Jersey, and 19th-ranked Winnipeg. Their unblemished week earned them 18 rating points, moving them all the way from 9th in our ratings last week up to a tie for 4th with Pittsburgh.
Toronto had a long run in the top 5, but after a poor week, they’ve dropped out, all the way down to 8th. They started with a road win against 16th-ranked Washington, but then lost their next two, to 30th-ranked Buffalo and 16th-ranked Vancouver, resulting in a drop of 15 rating points. They have a chance to turn it around next week, facing 21st-ranked Columbus, 32nd-ranked Seattle, 29th-ranked Arizona, and 30th-ranked Buffalo.
The other team dropping out of the top 5 was St. Louis, who went winless this week in 3 road games, and dropped from 5th all the way down to 10th in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings. Their losses came to the 4th-ranked Rangers, the 20th-ranked Islanders, and 27th-ranked New Jersey, this last one in overtime.
The best performing team in our rankings this week was 29th-ranked Arizona! They won both their games at home this week, defeating top-ranked Colorado (!!!!!) and 24th-ranked Ottawa. We awarded them 19 rating points for those two victories, which was enough to push them up two spots from 31st in our rankings. Still, we’re giving them a less than 1% chance of making the playoffs.
The worst performing team was Ottawa. They had four road games, and they lost them all in regulation time. Those losses came to Tampa Bay (ranked 3rd), Florida (7th), Arizona (29th), and Vegas (11th). Obviously, a road trip to warmer climes did not agree with them.
And there was a change at the bottom of the rankings! After being lowest-ranked for weeks on end, Montreal has climbed up to 31st! They had the pleasure of a Western Canadian road trip, playing Winnipeg, Calgary, and Edmonton. They started with a loss to 19th-ranked Winnipeg, but then beat 6th-ranked Calgary in overtime and 16th-ranked Edmonton in regulation. This earned them 10 rating points, which pushed them back over that 1400 mark, up to 1402, and past Seattle.
Seattle now sits in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings cellar. They went 1-2-0 this week, beating 14th-ranked Nashville at home, then losing to 16th-ranked Washington and 2nd-ranked Carolina. Despite one win and two losses, we awarded them 1 additional rating point, but that wasn’t enough to keep them from being passed by the Canadiens.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1617, ▼9)
Record: 40-11-5, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 45% (▼7)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 17% (▼2)
Last week: 1-1-1
- March 1: Won 5-3 vs. New York Islanders (20th, 1482)
- March 3: Lost 2-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (29th, 1413)
- March 5: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Calgary Flames (6th, 1574)
Next week:
- March 7: @ New York Islanders (20th, 1482)
- March 8: @ New Jersey Devils (27th, 1414)
- March 10: @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1592)
- March 13: vs. Calgary Flames (6th, 1574)
2. Carolina Hurricanes (1592, ▼10)
Record: 39-12-5, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 25% (▼3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼2)
Last week: 2-1-1
- March 1: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1426)
- March 3: Lost 4-0 @ Washington Capitals (16th, 1516)
- March 4: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (4th, 1575)
- March 6: Won 3-2 vs. Seattle Kraken (32nd, 1397)
Next week:
- March 10: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1617)
- March 12: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (27th, 1414)
- March 13: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (4th, 1575)
3. Tampa Bay Lightning (1586, ▲4)
Record: 37-12-6, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▲4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)
Last week: 3-1-0
- March 1: Won 5-2 vs. Ottawa Senators (24th, 1436)
- March 3: Lost 5-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (4th, 1575)
- March 4: Won 3-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1426)
- March 6: Won 6-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (25th, 1426)
Next week:
- March 8: @ Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1495)
- March 10: @ Calgary Flames (6th, 1574)
- March 12: @ Edmonton Oilers (16th, 1516)
- March 13: @ Vancouver Canucks (16th, 1516)
4 (tie). New York Rangers ▲5 (1575, ▲18)
Record: 36-15-5, 2nd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-0
- March 2: Won 5-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (10th, 1557)
- March 4: Won 3-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (27th, 1414)
- March 6: Won 4-1 @ Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1495)
Next week:
- March 8: @ Minnesota Wild (13th, 1525)
- March 10: @ St. Louis Blues (10th, 1557)
- March 12: @ Dallas Stars (14th, 1517)
4 (tie). Pittsburgh Penguins ▲3 (1575, ▲10)
Record: 34-14-9, 3rd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)
Last week: 1-0-1
- March 3: Won 5-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (3rd, 1586)
- March 4: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1592)
Next week:
- March 8: vs. Florida Panthers (7th, 1569)
- March 11: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (11th, 1535)
- March 13: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1592)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1617 (▼9) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 1592 (▼10) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 1586 (▲4) 4 (tie) New York Rangers (▲5) 1575 (▲18) 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3) 1575 (▲10) 6 Calgary Flames 1574 (▲6) 7 Florida Panthers (▲1) 1569 (▲9) 8 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4) 1562 (▼15) 9 Boston Bruins (▲1) 1559 (▲6) 10 St. Louis Blues (▼5) 1557 (▼18) 11 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 1535 (▼9) 11 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2) 1535 (▲9) 13 Minnesota Wild (▼2) 1525 (▼20) 14 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲4) 1517 (▲18) 14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1) 1517 (▼2) 16 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼2) 1516 (▼6) 16 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1516 (▲9) 16 (tie) Washington Capitals 1516 (▲7) 19 Winnipeg Jets 1495 (▼3) 20 New York Islanders 1482 (▼3) 21 Columbus Blue Jackets 1473 (▲7) 22 Anaheim Ducks 1465 (▲1) 23 San Jose Sharks (▲1) 1440 (▼11) 24 Ottawa Senators (▼1) 1436 (▼22) 25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks 1426 (▼11) 25 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 1426 (▼5) 27 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) 1414 (▲1) 27 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers 1414 (▼5) 29 Arizona Coyotes (▲2) 1413 (▲19) 30 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 1411 (▲15) 31 Montreal Canadiens (▲1) 1402 (▲10) 32 Seattle Kraken (▼3) 1397 (▲1)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 74% (▼11) 2 New York Rangers 17% (▲9) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins 8% (▲1) 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 4 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 4 (tie) Washington Capitals <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 46% (▲4) 2 Florida Panthers 40% (▲10) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 11% (▼15) 4 Boston Bruins 3% (▲1) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 97% (▲4) 2 St. Louis Blues 2% (▼3) 3 Minnesota Wild 1% (▼1) 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 4 (tie) Dallas Stars <1% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators <1% 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1%
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames 84% (▲12) 2 Los Angeles Kings 9% (▼8) 3 Vegas Golden Knights 5% (▼1) 4 Edmonton Oilers 2% (▼2) 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) <1% 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) <1% 5 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) <1% 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% (▼1)
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes >99% 1 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) >99% (▲1) 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) >99% (▲1) 4 Washington Capitals 87% (▲4) 5 Columbus Blue Jackets 10% (▼1) 6 New York Islanders 3% (▼4) 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Florida Panthers >99% 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs >99% 4 Boston Bruins 99% (▲1) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2) <1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% (▼1) 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2) <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% (▼1)
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche >99% 2 St. Louis Blues 96% (▼3) 3 Minnesota Wild 85% (▼9) 4 Dallas Stars (▲1) 80% (▲23) 5 Nashville Predators (▼1) 74% (▼2) 6 Winnipeg Jets 8% (▼5) 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames 99% 2 Los Angeles Kings 85% (▼3) 3 Vegas Golden Knights 78% (▲9) 4 Edmonton Oilers 50% (▼10) 5 Vancouver Canucks 32% (▲5) 6 Anaheim Ducks 11% (▼1) 7 San Jose Sharks 1% (▼4) 8 Seattle Kraken <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 45% (▼7) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 25% (▼3) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 13% (▲4) 4 Florida Panthers 10% (▲5) 5 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) 2% (▲1) 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) 2% (▲1) 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 1% 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2) 1% (▼3)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 17% (▼2) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 10% (▼2) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 9% (▲1) 4 Calgary Flames 8% (▲1) 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3) 7% (▲2) 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 7% (▲1) 7 Florida Panthers (▲1) 6% (▲1) 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲2) 5% (▲1) 8 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼4) 5% (▼2) 8 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4) 5% (▼2) 11 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 3% (▼1) 11 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1) 3% (▼1) 11 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2) 3% (▲1) 14 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲3) 2% (▲1) 14 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 2% 14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) 2% 14 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) 2% 18 Vancouver Canucks (▼1) 1% 19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 19 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 19 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 19 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 19 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 19 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 19 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 19 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 19 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 19 (tie) Seattle Kraken <1% 19 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1%