We have a new team in the Top 5 of the McDonald NHL Power Ratings this week! St. Louis had a strong week, going 3-0-0, and in the process picked up 15 rating points and jumped from 10th in last week’s rankings to 5th this week. They didn’t play strong teams, 27th-ranked Philadelphia, 29th-ranked Buffalo, and 25th-ranked Chicago, but they did win all three games, with two of them on the road. They are 2nd in the Central Division now, and we’re now giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, and a 7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Colorado remains the top-ranked team in the league, as they went 3-1-0 this week. They started the week off with a loss in Boston to the 10th-ranked Bruins, but followed it up with wins against 26th-ranked Detroit, 19th-ranked Winnipeg, and 13th-ranked Vegas. They lead the Central Division, actually the entire league, and we’re now giving them a better than even chance of winning the President’s Trophy, with a 52% chance, up from 41% last week. They continue to be the favourites to win the Stanley Cup, now up to 19% from 16% last week.
Once again, Carolina is the second ranked team in our Power Ratings. They picked up 6 rating points this week to cross that 1600 rating point mark, and are our 2nd pick for both the President’s Trophy (28%) and Stanley Cup (12%). They won all three of their games this week, with an overtime win against 27th-ranked Philadelphia, a shutout against 21st-ranked Columbus, and a tight 4-3 victory over 14th-ranked Edmonton.
Two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay is ranked third this week, moving up two spots after going 2-0-0, with victories over 14th-ranked Edmonton and 15th-ranked Nashville. That second game of the week was played outdoors in Nashville on Saturday evening in front of a crowd of 68,619 fans at Nissan Stadium. The temperature was 4 degrees, so it was a beautiful night for hockey!
Toronto remains in 4th spot in our rankings, despite having gone 2-1-1 this week. They started the week off with a classic Canadiens vs. Leafs game, but coming out short in a 5-2 decision to lowest-ranked Montreal. They followed that up with an overtime loss to 21st-ranked Columbus, but then turned it around and won their last two games of the week against 11th-ranked Minnesota and 26th-ranked Detroit. The game against Detroit ended up 10-7! Toronto led 7-2 going into the 3rd period, but gave up a quick 4 goals to make it 7-6, but then shut the door with 3 unanswered goals to end the game. Mitch Marner scored 4 goals for the Leafs.
Dropping out of the top 5 was Florida, who had the worst week in the league, going 0-3-0 with all their games this week being at home. They lost to 15th-ranked Nashville, 21st-ranked Columbus, and 14th-ranked Edmonton, and as a result, our team of experts have taken away a whopping 30 rating points! We’re still giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, but we’ve dropped their chances of winning the President’s Trophy from 26% all the way down to 5%. They do still lead the Atlantic Division, but only one point up on Tampa Bay, with Tampa Bay having played two less games than the Panthers.
Another notable team this week was Calgary. They went 2-1-0 this week, and moved up from 8th to 6th in our rankings, but what was most notable was that they had a 10 game winning streak! That came to an end in a 7-1 loss to the Canucks in Vancouver, but they started another winning streak their next game, defeating Minnesota.
A couple other outstanding teams this week were Vancouver and Los Angeles, both going 3-0-0 to vastly improve their rating points. Vancouver beat 29th-ranked Seattle, 6th-ranked Calgary, and the 9th-ranked New York Rangers, gaining 23 rating points and moving from 19th to 17th in the rankings. Their chances of making the playoffs jumped from 12% all the way up to 27%; still a ways to go, but definitely doable. Los Angeles didn’t have as hard opponents, as they beat 31st-ranked Arizona, 22nd-ranked Anaheim, and 20th-ranked New York Islanders. This earned them 18 rating points, moving them up one spot in our rankings to 12th. We’re now giving them an 88% chance of making the playoffs, up from 72% last week.
And the biggest surprise of the week was worst-in-the-league Montreal! They won all three of their games this week, including a 5-2 victory over 4th-ranked Toronto. They also beat 29th-ranked Buffalo and 23rd-ranked Ottawa. This gained them 29 rating points, but they’re still ranked last in the league, and we’re giving them less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs, but if they keep winning games, you never know! Well, I think we do know, but they can dream.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1626, ▲7)
Record: 39-10-4, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 52% (▲11)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 19% (▲3)
Last week: 3-1-0
- February 21: Lost 5-1 @ Boston Bruins (10th, 1553)
- February 23: Won 5-2 @ Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1431)
- February 25: Won 6-3 vs. Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1498)
- February 26: Won 3-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1526)
Next week:
- March 1: vs. New York Islanders (20th, 1485)
- March 3: @ Arizona Coyotes (31st, 1394)
- March 5: vs. Calgary Flames (6th, 1568)
2. Carolina Hurricanes (1602, ▲6)
Record: 37-11-4, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 28% (▲12)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-0
- February 21: Won in OT 4-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (27th, 1419)
- February 25: Won 4-0 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (21st, 1466)
- February 27: Won 2-1 vs. Edmonton Oilers (14th, 1522)
Next week:
- March 1: @ Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1431)
- March 3: @ Washington Capitals (16th, 1509)
- March 4: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1565)
- March 6: vs. Seattle Kraken (29th, 1396)
3. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲2 (1582, ▲13)
Record: 34-11-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▲4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)
Last week: 2-0-0
- February 23: Won 5-3 vs. Edmonton Oilers (14th, 1522)
- February 26: Won 3-2 @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1519)
Next week:
- March 1: vs. Ottawa Senators (23rd, 1458)
- March 3: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1565)
- March 4: vs. Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1431)
- March 6: @ Chicago Blackhawks (25th, 1437)
4. Toronto Maple Leafs (1577)
Record: 34-14-4, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%
Last week: 2-1-1
- February 21: Lost 5-2 @ Montreal Canadiens (32nd, 1392)
- February 22: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (21st, 1466)
- February 24: Won 3-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (11th, 1545)
- February 26: Won 10-7 @ Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1431)
Next week:
- February 28: @ Washington Capitals (16th, 1509)
- March 2: vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1396)
- March 5: vs. Vancouver Canucks (17th, 1507)
5. St. Louis Blues ▲5 (1575, ▲15)
Record: 32-14-6, 2nd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▲3)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-0
- February 22: Won 4-1 @ Philadelphia Flyers (27th, 1419)
- February 25: Won 5-3 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1396)
- February 27: Won 4-0 @ Chicago Blackhawks (25th, 1437)
Next week:
- March 2: @ New York Rangers (9th, 1557)
- March 5: @ New York Islanders (20th, 1485)
- March 6: @ New Jersey Devils (28th, 1413)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1626 (▲7) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 1602 (▲6) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2) 1582 (▲13) 4 Toronto Maple Leafs 1577 5 St. Louis Blues (▲5) 1575 (▲15) 6 Calgary Flames (▲2) 1568 (▲3) 7 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 1565 (▲2) 8 Florida Panthers (▼5) 1560 (▼30) 9 New York Rangers (▼3) 1557 (▼11) 10 Boston Bruins (▲2) 1553 (▲12) 11 Minnesota Wild (▼4) 1545 (▼21) 12 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 1544 (▲18) 13 Vegas Golden Knights (▼2) 1526 (▼16) 14 Edmonton Oilers 1522 (▼2) 15 Nashville Predators (▲1) 1519 (▲2) 16 Washington Capitals (▼2) 1509 (▼15) 17 Vancouver Canucks (▲2) 1507 (▲23) 18 Dallas Stars 1499 (▲5) 19 Winnipeg Jets (▼2) 1498 (▼2) 20 New York Islanders (▲1) 1485 (▲10) 21 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 1466 (▲2) 22 Anaheim Ducks (▼2) 1464 (▼16) 23 Ottawa Senators 1458 (▼1) 24 San Jose Sharks 1451 (▲1) 25 Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 1437 26 Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 1431 (▼11) 27 Philadelphia Flyers 1419 (▲7) 28 New Jersey Devils (▲2) 1413 (▲5) 29 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼2) 1396 (▼16) 29 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼2) 1396 (▼16) 31 Arizona Coyotes 1394 (▼2) 32 Montreal Canadiens 1392 (▲29)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 85% (▲17) 2 New York Rangers 8% (▼13) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins 7% (▼3) 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) Washington Capitals <1% (▼1)
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2) 42% (▲25) 2 Florida Panthers (▼1) 30% (▼33) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 26% (▲7) 4 Boston Bruins 2% (▲1) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 93% (▲8) 2 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 5% (▲1) 3 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 2% (▼9) 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 4 (tie) Dallas Stars <1% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators <1% 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1%
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames 72% (▲4) 2 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 17% (▲9) 3 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 6% (▼10) 4 Edmonton Oilers 4% (▼3) 5 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1% (▲1) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1) <1% (▼1) 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes >99% 2 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1) 99% (▼1) 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 99% 4 Washington Capitals 83% (▼8) 5 Columbus Blue Jackets 11% (▲1) 6 New York Islanders 7% (▲2) 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Florida Panthers >99% 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs >99% 4 Boston Bruins 98% (▲6) 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings 1% (▼2) 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) 1% 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche >99% 2 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 99% (▲3) 3 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 94% (▼5) 4 Nashville Predators 76% (▲5) 5 Dallas Stars 57% (▲10) 6 Winnipeg Jets 13% (▼9) 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames 99% (▲1) 2 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 88% (▲16) 3 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 69% (▼16) 4 Edmonton Oilers 60% (▼7) 5 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 27% (▲15) 6 Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 12% (▼13) 7 San Jose Sharks 5% (▼1) 8 Seattle Kraken <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 52% (▲11) 2 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 28% (▲12) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 9% (▲4) 4 Florida Panthers (▼2) 5% (▼21) 5 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 4% (▼1) 6 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2) 1% 6 (tie) New York Rangers 1% (▼1) 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 1% 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4) 1% (▲1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 19% (▲3) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 12% (▲1) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3) 8% (▲2) 4 (tie) Calgary Flames 7% 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲6) 7% (▲2) 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 7% 7 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 6% 8 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼5) 5% (▼4) 8 (tie) New York Rangers (▼2) 5% (▼1) 10 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲2) 4% (▲1) 10 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 4% (▲1) 10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼4) 4% (▼2) 13 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 2% (▼1) 13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲3) 2% 13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2) 2% (▼2) 13 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) 2% (▼1) 17 (tie) Dallas Stars 1% 17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲3) 1% (▲1) 19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼2) <1% (▼1) 19 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2) <1% (▼1)