I hate getting these Monday morning reports out later in the week, but unfortunately, sometimes life intervenes. Anyways, better late than never, I guess!
There was only one team change in the top 5 this week, with Pittsburgh having a disastrous week, worst in the league, and dropping from 3rd all the way to down to 9th! Their only win of the week was an overtime win against 27th-ranked Philadelphia. Besides that game, they had a tough schedule, with losses to 4th-ranked Toronto and 2nd-ranked Carolina. But, if you’re going to be in the top 5, you need to be able to win the occasional game against the top-5 teams!
Colorado remains in 1st. They went 2-1-0 this week, losing at home to 18th-ranked Dallas but winning two road games against 11th-ranked Vegas and 27th-ranked Buffalo. This left them with the same number of rating points at 1619, and they’re still the only team rated over 1600. They did see their chances of winning the President’s Trophy drop from 48% to 41%, and their chance of winning the Stanley Cup drop from 17% to 16%, but they’re still seen as the most likely to succeed.
Carolina remains in 2nd spot in our rankings, but they’ve closed the gap after a 2-0-1 week. They lost in overtime to 3rd-ranked Florida, then beat both 16th-ranked Nashville and 9th-ranked Pittsburgh.
With Pittsburgh’s bad week, Florida moved up from 4th into 3rd. They went 3-0-0 this week, beating 2nd-ranked Carolina in overtime, and 7th-ranked Minnesota and 26th-ranked Chicago in regulation time.
Also moving up due to Pittsburgh’s drop was Toronto. They went 2-1-0, beating 27th-ranked Seattle and 9th-ranked Pittsburgh, but lost their last game of the week to 10th-ranked St. Louis.
Rounding out the top 5 is Tampa Bay, who moved up from 8th to regain a spot in the top 5. They had a quiet week, with only a single game. They won it, on the road, against 30th-ranked New Jersey. It seems like a big move for a single win over a crappy team, but that’s just an indication of how close teams 5 through 10 are ranked, with #5 Tampa Bay sitting at 1569 rating points, and #10 St. Louis having 1560 points.
Edmonton had the best week in our ratings. They had a very busy week, playing 5 games, 4 of which they won, with 3 of those victories coming on the road. With the strong showing, we’ve calculated that their chances of making the playoffs have jumped from 43% all the way up to 67%, a huge jump in a single week! They’ve got a tough week coming up, though, with games against Tampa Bay, Florida, and Carolina, all top 5 teams.
Just down Highway 2, Calgary also had a good week, winning all three of their games and extending their winning streak to 9 games! The games were against weaker teams, though, beating 22nd-ranked Columbus, 20th-ranked Anaheim, and 27th-ranked Seattle.As a result, we only awarded them an additional 14 rating points, still good enough to move them up to 8th.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1619)
Record: 36-9-4, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 41% (▼7)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 16% (▼1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- February 15: Lost 4-1 vs. Dallas Stars (18th, 1494)
- February 16: Won 2-0 @ Vegas Golden Knights (11th, 1542)
- February 19: Won 5-3 @ Buffalo Sabres (27th, 1412)
Next week:
- February 21: @ Boston Bruins (12th, 1541)
- February 23: @ Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1442)
- February 25: vs. Winnipeg Jets (17th, 1500)
- February 26: @ Vegas Golden Knights (11th, 1542)
2. Carolina Hurricanes (1596, ▲12)
Record: 34-11-4, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▲3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲2)
Last week: 2-0-1
- February 16: Lost in OT 3-2 vs. Florida Panthers (3rd, 1590)
- February 18: Won 5-3 vs. Nashville Predators (16th, 1517)
- February 20: Won 4-3 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (9th, 1563)
Next week:
- February 21: @ Philadelphia Flyers (27th, 1412)
- February 25: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (22nd, 1464)
- February 27: vs. Edmonton Oilers (14th, 1524)
3. Florida Panthers ▲1 (1590, ▲14)
Record: 35-10-5, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 26% (▲12)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-0
- February 16: Won in OT 3-2 @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1596)
- February 18: Won 6-2 @ Minnesota Wild (7th, 1566)
- February 20: Won 5-2 @ Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1437)
Next week:
- February 22: vs. Nashville Predators (16th, 1517)
- February 24: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (22nd, 1464)
- February 26: vs. Edmonton Oilers (14th, 1524)
4. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲1 (1577, ▲3)
Record: 32-13-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%
Last week: 2-1-0
- February 14: Won 6-2 @ Seattle Kraken (27th, 1412)
- February 17: Won 4-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (9th, 1563)
- February 19: Lost 6-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (10th, 1560)
Next week:
- February 21: @ Montreal Canadiens (32nd, 1363)
- February 22: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (22nd, 1464)
- February 24: vs. Minnesota Wild (7th, 1566)
- February 26: @ Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1442)
5. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲3 (1569, ▲5)
Record: 32-11-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 5%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%
Last week: 1-0-0
- February 15: Won 6-3 @ New Jersey Devils (30th, 1408)
Next week:
- February 23: vs. Edmonton Oilers (14th, 1524)
- February 26: @ Nashville Predators (16th, 1517)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1619 2 Carolina Hurricanes 1596 (▲12) 3 Florida Panthers (▲1) 1590 (▲14) 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 1577 (▲3) 5 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3) 1569 (▲5) 6 New York Rangers (▲1) 1568 (▲2) 7 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 1566 (▼4) 8 Calgary Flames (▲1) 1565 (▲14) 9 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6) 1563 (▼19) 10 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 1560 (▲12) 11 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 1542 (▼1) 12 Boston Bruins (▼2) 1541 (▼8) 13 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 1526 (▼2) 14 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲3) 1524 (▲23) 14 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) 1524 (▲15) 16 Nashville Predators (▼3) 1517 (▼14) 17 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 1500 (▼5) 18 Dallas Stars (▲1) 1494 (▲2) 19 Vancouver Canucks (▼1) 1484 (▼9) 20 Anaheim Ducks 1480 (▼2) 21 New York Islanders 1475 (▼3) 22 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) 1464 (▲9) 23 Ottawa Senators 1459 (▼3) 24 San Jose Sharks (▼2) 1450 (▼15) 25 Detroit Red Wings 1442 (▼1) 26 Chicago Blackhawks 1437 (▼3) 27 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 1412 (▼10) 27 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) 1412 (▼2) 27 (tie) Seattle Kraken 1412 (▼14) 30 New Jersey Devils 1408 (▼5) 31 Arizona Coyotes 1396 (▲3) 32 Montreal Canadiens 1363 (▲6)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 68% (▲13) 2 New York Rangers (▲1) 21% (▲1) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 10% (▼14) 4 Washington Capitals 1% 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 5 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 63% (▲15) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 19% (▼9) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 17% (▼6) 4 Boston Bruins 1% (▼1) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 85% (▲3) 2 Minnesota Wild 11% (▼4) 3 St. Louis Blues 4% (▲2) 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators <1% (▼1) 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) <1%
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames 68% (▲14) 2 Vegas Golden Knights 16% (▼10) 3 Los Angeles Kings 8% (▼4) 4 Edmonton Oilers 7% (▲3) 5 Anaheim Ducks 1% (▼1) 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% (▼1) 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2) <1% 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% (▼1)
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes >99% 1 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2) >99% (▲1) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2) 99% (▼1) 4 Washington Capitals 91% (▲8) 5 Columbus Blue Jackets 10% 6 New York Islanders 5% (▼4) 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Florida Panthers >99% 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs >99% 4 Boston Bruins 92% (▼1) 5 Detroit Red Wings 3% (▼1) 6 Ottawa Senators 1% (▼1) 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche >99% 2 Minnesota Wild 99% 3 St. Louis Blues 96% (▲5) 4 Nashville Predators 71% (▼12) 5 Dallas Stars 47% (▲6) 6 Winnipeg Jets 22% (▼8) 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames 98% (▲4) 2 Vegas Golden Knights 85% 3 Los Angeles Kings 72% (▲3) 4 Edmonton Oilers 67% (▲24) 5 Anaheim Ducks 25% (▼8) 6 Vancouver Canucks 12% (▼5) 7 San Jose Sharks 6% (▼9) 8 Seattle Kraken <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 41% (▼7) 2 Florida Panthers 26% (▲12) 3 Carolina Hurricanes 16% (▲3) 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2) 5% 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 5% (▼1) 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼2) 2% (▼4) 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2) 2% 8 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) 1% 8 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 1% (▼2)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 16% (▼1) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 11% (▲2) 3 Florida Panthers (▲1) 9% (▲1) 4 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲5) 7% (▲2) 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 7% 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1) 6% (▼1) 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) 6% 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼4) 6% (▼3) 6 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 6% 10 St. Louis Blues 5% (▲1) 11 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 4% 12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2) 3% (▼1) 12 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲3) 3% (▲1) 12 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 3% 12 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3) 3% (▲1) 16 Nashville Predators (▼3) 2% (▼1) 17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks 1% 17 (tie) Dallas Stars 1% 17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 1% 20 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) <1% 20 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼3) <1% (▼1)