Happy Valentine’s Day! Nothing says “I love you” like a fresh McDonald NHL Power Ratings report!
Surprisingly, there was quite a bit of movement in the rankings this week, although not much in the top 5. Colorado remains the top-ranked team. They had a good week going 2-0-0, beating 8th-ranked Tampa Bay at home and 19th-ranked Dallas on the road. With those two wins, they increased their rating points by 12, up to a season-high 1619. We now give Colorado a 48% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, up 16% from last week, and a 17% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up 3% from last week.
Last week, Carolina sat in 2nd spot in our rankings, tied with Toronto. For one day this week, Toronto creeped ahead of them after beating them in overtime, but both teams had bad weeks, with Toronto having a worse week, and so Carolina has stayed in 2nd place in our rankings. With a 1-2-1 week, Carolina lost 8 rating points, but still managed to stay ahead of everyone else but Colorado.
Pittsburgh had a big week, going 3-0-0, with all three wins coming on the road. They defeated 10th-ranked Boston, 23rd-ranked Ottawa, and 30th-ranked New Jersey, and in the process picked up 19 rating points. That was enough to jump them from 8th all the way up to 3rd in our rankings!
Florida had the week off this week, and despite all the changes around them, they managed to stay in 4th spot.
Rounding out the top 5 is Toronto, who beat Carolina in overtime, but then lost their remaining two games in the week, both on the road. 9th-ranked Calgary and 18th-ranked Vancouver were the victors over Toronto. Toronto lost 18 rating points this week, which is the second worst performance of the week.
The top upward-moving teams this week were Pittsburgh (19 points) and Calgary (20 points). Calgary won all three of their games this week, all at home. Their victories came over 12th-ranked Vegas, 5th-ranked Toronto, and 18th-ranked Vancouver. With the three wins, they jumped in our rankings from 13th place all the way up to 9th.
The worst performing team this week was the lowest-ranked team in the league, Montreal. After a disastrous week of losing all four of their games, to 30th-ranked New Jersey, 15th-ranked Washington, 24th-ranked Columbus, and 28th-ranked Buffalo, they lost a whopping 28 rating points, dropping down to 1357 rating points, the lowest any team has been this year. Unsurprisingly, coach Dominique Ducharme was fired this week.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1619, ▲12)
Record: 34-8-4, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 48% (▲16)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 17% (▲3)
Last week: 2-0-0
- February 10: Won 3-2 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (8th, 1564)
- February 13: Won 4-0 @ Dallas Stars (19th, 1492)
Next week:
- February 15: vs. Dallas Stars (19th, 1492)
- February 16: @ Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1543)
- February 19: @ Buffalo Sabres (28th, 1422)
2. Carolina Hurricanes (1584, ▼8)
Record: 32-11-3, 2nd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▼9)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)
Last week: 1-2-1
- February 7: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Toronto Maple Leafs (5th, 1574)
- February 8: Lost 4-3 @ Ottawa Senators (23rd, 1462)
- February 10: Won 6-0 @ Boston Bruins (10th, 1549)
- February 12: Lost 3-2 @ Minnesota Wild (6th, 1570)
Next week:
- February 16: vs. Florida Panthers (4th, 1576)
- February 18: vs. Nashville Predators (13th, 1531)
- February 20: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (3rd, 1582)
3. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲5 (1582, ▲19)
Record: 30-11-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)
Last week: 3-0-0
- February 8: Won 4-2 @ Boston Bruins (10th, 1549)
- February 10: Won 2-0 @ Ottawa Senators (23rd, 1462)
- February 13: Won 4-2 @ New Jersey Devils (30th, 1413)
Next week:
- February 15: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (29th, 1414)
- February 17: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (5th, 1574)
- February 20: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1584)
4. Florida Panthers (1576)
Record: 32-10-5, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 14% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)
Last week: 0-0-0
- No games scheduled
Next week:
- February 16: @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1584)
- February 18: @ Minnesota Wild (6th, 1570)
- February 20: @ Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1440)
5. Toronto Maple Leafs ▼3 (1574, ▼18)
Record: 30-12-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼8)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)
Last week: 1-2-0
- February 7: Won in OT 4-3 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1584)
- February 10: Lost 5-2 @ Calgary Flames (9th, 1551)
- February 12: Lost 3-2 @ Vancouver Canucks (18th, 1493)
Next week:
- February 14: @ Seattle Kraken (27th, 1426)
- February 17: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (3rd, 1582)
- February 19: vs. St. Louis Blues (11th, 1548)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1619 (▲12) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 1584 (▼8) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲5) 1582 (▲19) 4 Florida Panthers 1576 5 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼3) 1574 (▼18) 6 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 1570 (▼1) 7 New York Rangers (▼1) 1566 8 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 1564 (▼1) 9 Calgary Flames (▲4) 1551 (▲20) 10 Boston Bruins (▼1) 1549 (▼9) 11 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 1548 (▼6) 12 Vegas Golden Knights 1543 (▲1) 13 Nashville Predators (▼2) 1531 (▼17) 14 Los Angeles Kings 1528 15 Washington Capitals 1509 (▼14) 16 Winnipeg Jets (▲4) 1505 (▲18) 17 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 1501 (▼12) 18 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1493 (▲5) 19 Dallas Stars (▼1) 1492 (▲1) 20 Anaheim Ducks (▼3) 1482 (▼10) 21 New York Islanders 1478 (▼2) 22 San Jose Sharks 1465 23 Ottawa Senators 1462 (▲13) 24 Columbus Blue Jackets 1455 (▲17) 25 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 1443 (▲14) 26 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 1440 (▲5) 27 Seattle Kraken (▲1) 1426 (▲1) 28 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 1422 (▲7) 29 Philadelphia Flyers (▼2) 1414 (▼14) 30 New Jersey Devils 1413 (▲8) 31 Arizona Coyotes 1393 (▼1) 32 Montreal Canadiens 1357 (▼28)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 55% (▼13) 2 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 24% (▲13) 3 New York Rangers (▼1) 20% (▲1) 4 Washington Capitals 1% (▼1) 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 5 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 48% (▲9) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 28% (▼10) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 23% (▲3) 4 Boston Bruins 2% (▼1) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 82% (▲11) 2 Minnesota Wild 15% (▼6) 3 St. Louis Blues 2% (▼2) 4 Nashville Predators (▼1) 1% (▼3) 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 5 (tie) Dallas Stars <1% 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1%
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames 54% (▲21) 2 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 26% (▼7) 3 Los Angeles Kings 12% (▼3) 4 Edmonton Oilers 4% (▼7) 5 Anaheim Ducks 2% (▼3) 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks 1% 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks 1% 8 Seattle Kraken <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes >99% 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) >99% (▲2) 3 New York Rangers (▼1) 99% 4 Washington Capitals 83% (▼7) 5 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 10% (▲7) 6 New York Islanders (▼1) 9% (▼1) 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% (▼1)
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Florida Panthers >99% 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs >99% 4 Boston Bruins 93% (▼3) 5 Detroit Red Wings 4% (▲2) 6 Ottawa Senators 2% (▲1) 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche >99% 2 Minnesota Wild 99% (▲1) 3 St. Louis Blues 91% (▼2) 4 Nashville Predators 83% (▼9) 5 Dallas Stars 41% (▲5) 6 Winnipeg Jets 30% (▲13) 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames (▲1) 94% (▲12) 2 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 85% (▲1) 3 Los Angeles Kings 69% (▲1) 4 Edmonton Oilers 43% (▼13) 5 Anaheim Ducks 33% (▼9) 6 Vancouver Canucks 17% (▲2) 7 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 15% 8 Seattle Kraken <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 48% (▲16) 2 Florida Panthers (▲2) 14% (▲1) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 13% (▼9) 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1) 6% (▼1) 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 6% (▼8) 6 Tampa Bay Lightning 5% (▼1) 7 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 3% (▲2) 8 New York Rangers (▼1) 2% 9 Calgary Flames (▲3) 1% (▲1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 17% (▲3) 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 9% (▼1) 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4) 9% (▲3) 4 Florida Panthers 8% (▲1) 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1) 7% 5 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2) 7% (▼2) 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1) 6% 7 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 6% 9 Calgary Flames (▲3) 5% (▲1) 10 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) 4% (▼1) 10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1) 4% (▼1) 10 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2) 4% 13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 3% 13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼4) 3% (▼2) 15 (tie) Edmonton Oilers 2% 15 (tie) Washington Capitals 2% 17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks 1% 17 (tie) Dallas Stars 1% 17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks 1% 17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 1% 21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 21 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 21 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 21 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 21 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 21 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 21 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 21 (tie) Seattle Kraken <1%