It was a relatively quiet week in the NHL this week, as the tail end of the week had the All-Star Break. Because of the small number of games, there weren’t a lot of changes in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings or Rankings.
Colorado remains in the top spot, with their only game this week being a 3-2 overtime loss to 31st-ranked Arizona. As a result of that loss, they saw their chances of winning the President’s Trophy drop by 6%, down to 32%, still tops in the league.
Carolina remains in second spot, although they now share that position with Toronto. Colorado didn’t have any games at all this week, so their rating didn’t change at all. Toronto, meanwhile, had a back-to-back, home-and-home series with 30th-ranked New Jersey. Toronto swept both games, including a 7-1 road victory, and picked up 8 rating points. Toronto is creeping up in the President’s Trophy watch, with the boys in the back room now giving them a 14% chance of winning it, up from 9% last week.
Florida remains in fourth in our rankings after splitting a pair of road games, a win over 24th-ranked Columbus and a loss to the 6th-ranked New York Rangers. Minnesota moved back into the top 5, with a shutout road victory over 25th-ranked Chicago in their single game this week.
Tampa Bay’s stay in the top 5 lasted just one week. Although their only game this week was a 3-2 overtime victory at home against 22nd-ranked San Jose, we dropped their rating by three points, enough to drop them down to 7th.
This week’s big upward mover was Calgary. They won both of their games on the road, a comeback 4-3 victory over 18th-ranked Dallas and a 4-2 win over 31st-ranked Arizona. Those two wins earned them 14 ranking points, good enough to move them up to spots to 13th in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.
The big downward mover was Chicago. They lost both of their games this week, both at home with a 3-1 loss to 19th-ranked Vancouver and a 5-0 shutout loss to 5th-ranked Minnesota.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1607, ▼5)
Record: 32-8-4, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 32% (▼6)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 14% (▼1)
Last week: 0-0-1
- February 1: Lost in SO 3-2 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1394)
Next week:
- February 10: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (7th, 1565)
- February 13: @ Dallas Stars (18th, 1491)
2 (tie). Carolina Hurricanes (1592)
Record: 31-9-2, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 22%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼1)
Last week: 0-0-0
- No games scheduled
Next week:
- February 7: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (2nd, 1592)
- February 8: @ Ottawa Senators (23th, 1449)
- February 10: @ Boston Bruins (9th, 1558)
- February 12: @ Minnesota Wild (5th, 1571)
2 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs ▲1 (1592, ▲8)
Record: 29-10-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 14% (▲5)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-0
- January 31: Won 6-4 vs. New Jersey Devils (30th, 1405)
- February 1: Won 7-1 @ New Jersey Devils (30th, 1405)
Next week:
- February 7: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1592)
- February 10: @ Calgary Flames (13th, 1531)
- February 12: @ Vancouver Canucks (19th, 1488)
4. Florida Panthers (1576, ▼1)
Record: 32-10-5, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▼2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼1)
Last week: 1-1-0
- January 31: Won 8-4 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (24th, 1438)
- February 1: Lost 5-2 @ New York Rangers (6th, 1566)
Next week:
- No games scheduled
5. Minnesota Wild ▲1 (1571, ▲6)
Record: 28-10-3, 3rd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%
Last week: 1-0-0
- February 2: Won 5-0 @ Chicago Blackhawks (25th, 1435)
Next week:
- February 8: @ Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1487)
- February 12: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1592)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1607 (▼5) 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 1592 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 1592 (▲8) 4 Florida Panthers 1576 (▼1) 5 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 1571 (▲6) 6 New York Rangers (▲2) 1566 (▲7) 7 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2) 1565 (▼3) 8 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 1563 (▼1) 9 Boston Bruins 1558 (▲4) 10 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 1554 11 Nashville Predators 1548 (▲6) 12 Vegas Golden Knights 1542 (▲4) 13 Calgary Flames (▲2) 1531 (▲14) 14 Los Angeles Kings 1528 (▲6) 15 Washington Capitals (▼2) 1523 (▼8) 16 Edmonton Oilers 1513 (▲9) 17 Anaheim Ducks (▲2) 1492 18 Dallas Stars (▼1) 1491 (▼8) 19 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1488 (▲2) 20 Winnipeg Jets (▼2) 1487 (▼8) 21 New York Islanders 1480 (▼4) 22 San Jose Sharks 1465 (▲3) 23 Ottawa Senators 1449 (▼6) 24 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 1438 (▼6) 25 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 1435 (▼13) 26 Detroit Red Wings 1429 (▼6) 27 Philadelphia Flyers 1428 (▲8) 28 Seattle Kraken 1425 (▲6) 29 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 1415 (▼4) 30 New Jersey Devils 1405 (▼8) 31 Arizona Coyotes 1394 (▼1) 32 Montreal Canadiens 1385
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 68% (▼2) 2 New York Rangers 19% (▲4) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins 11% (▼2) 4 Washington Capitals 2% (▼1) 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 5 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 39% (▼7) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 38% (▲8) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 20% (▼1) 4 Boston Bruins 3% 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 71% (▼6) 2 Minnesota Wild 21% (▲5) 3 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1) 4% (▲1) 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues 4% 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 5 (tie) Dallas Stars <1% 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1%
Pacific Division
1 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) 33% (▲7) 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 33% (▼3) 3 Los Angeles Kings 15% (▼1) 4 Edmonton Oilers 11% 5 Anaheim Ducks 5% (▼3) 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks 1% (▼1) 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks 1% (▼1) 8 Seattle Kraken <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes >99% 2 New York Rangers 99% (▲1) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 98% 4 Washington Capitals 90% 5 New York Islanders 10% (▼2) 6 Columbus Blue Jackets 3% (▼2) 7 Philadelphia Flyers 1% (▲1) 8 New Jersey Devils (▼1) <1%
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Florida Panthers >99% 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs >99% 4 Boston Bruins 96% (▲3) 5 Detroit Red Wings 2% 6 Ottawa Senators (▼1) 1% (▼1) 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche >99% 2 Minnesota Wild 98% 3 St. Louis Blues 93% 4 Nashville Predators 92% (▲2) 5 Dallas Stars 36% (▼10) 6 Winnipeg Jets 17% (▼8) 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) <1% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% (▼2)
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 84% (▲2) 2 Calgary Flames 82% (▲10) 3 Los Angeles Kings 68% (▲5) 4 Edmonton Oilers 56% (▲6) 5 Anaheim Ducks 42% (▼5) 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) 15% (▼1) 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks 15% (▼2) 8 Seattle Kraken <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 32% (▼6) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 22% 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 14% (▲5) 4 Florida Panthers (▼1) 13% (▼2) 5 Minnesota Wild 7% (▲2) 6 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 6% (▲1) 7 New York Rangers 2% (▲1) 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲2) 1% (▲1) 8 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2) 1% (▲1) 8 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 1% 8 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1) 1%
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 14% (▼1) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 10% (▼1) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 9% (▲1) 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1) 7% (▼1) 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1) 7% 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2) 6% (▲1) 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 6% 6 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 6% 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) 5% 9 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2) 5% (▲1) 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1) 5% 12 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) 4% (▲1) 12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 4% 14 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 3% 15 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 2% 15 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2) 2% (▼1) 17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks 1% 17 (tie) Dallas Stars 1% 17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks 1% 17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 1% 21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 21 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 21 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 21 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 21 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 21 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 21 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 21 (tie) Seattle Kraken <1%