We’re now past the halfway point of the NHL season, and will be heading into the All-Star Break this week. There’s been a little more change in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings Top 5 than what we’re used to, but not much more. Surprisingly, being only halfway through the season, according to our simulations, it looks like we’ve got most of our playoff teams identified!
Colorado remains at the top of our rankings; in fact, after going 4-0-0 this week, they picked up 10 rating points and now have the highest rating of any team this season. They are currently first in their division, and we’re giving them a 77% chance of winning the Central. They have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 38% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 15% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. They are looking strong!
Carolina stays in second spot in our Rankings. Despite going 4-0-0 this week, they only picked up 2 rating points. All four of their games were decided by one goal, with one game going into overtime and another going to a shootout. Still, we’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 70% chance of winning the Metropolitan Division, a 22% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and an 11% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Toronto continues to hold down the third spot in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings. They only played twice this week, winning both of their games, with one of the games going into overtime. Despite being third in the Atlantic Division, we’re still giving them a 30% chance of winning the division. We’re also giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 9% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 0% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Hah, just kidding on that last one — I should really stop dumping on the Leafs. We’re actually giving them an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Florida moved back into the top 5 this week, currently sitting in 4th in our rankings. They won all three of their games this week, one in overtime, picked up 10 rating points, and jumped from 6th to 4th in our rankings. They lead the Atlantic Division, and are our favourites to win the division with a 46% chance, up from 35% last week! They’ve got a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 15% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Rounding out the top 5 is last year’s Stanley Cup champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning. They went 1-0-1 last week, picking up just 3 rating points, but that was good enough to move them into the top 5. We’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 5% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
The reason Tampa Bay moved into the top 5 was because last week’s #4 and 5 teams, Pittsburgh and the New York Rangers, had pretty poor weeks. Pittsburgh lost 15 rating points and dropped to 7th, as they went 1-1-2, with their sole regulation win coming against 31st-ranked Arizona. The Rangers went 2-2-0, but our algorithms calculated a 17 rating point drop for them, pushing them down into 8th. Moving ahead of Pittsburgh and the Rangers was Minnesota, who went 3-0-0, including a road win over the aforementioned Rangers, giving them a 20 point boost and moving them up from 10th to 6th in our rankings.
The big upward mover this week was Anaheim. They went 3-0-1 this week, with their overtime loss coming on the road against 3rd-ranked Toronto. This performance netted them 28 rating points, moving them up to 1492, just a little short of an average rating. They did see their chances of making the playoffs jump from 32% to 47%.
This week’s worst performer was Montreal. The lowly Canadiens lost all 4 of this week’s game dropping their rating down below the “pretty crappy” mark of 1400 to 1385, a 24 point drop in the week. They were our first team this season to not make the playoffs in our set of 100,00 season simulations. From advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals last year down to last in the league this year is pretty disappointing. Who knows what a difference having Carey Price this year would have been? Apparently, it would have been a big difference.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1612, ▲10)
Record: 32-8-3, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 38% (▲9)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 15% (▲2)
Last week: 4-0-0
- January 24: Won 2-0 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1448)
- January 26: Won in OT 4-3 vs. Boston Bruins (9th, 1554)
- January 28: Won 6-4 @ Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1448)
- January 30: Won 4-1 vs. Buffalo Sabres (28th, 1419)
Next week:
- February 1: vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1395)
2. Carolina Hurricanes (1592, ▲3)
Record: 31-9-2, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 22% (▲4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)
Last week: 4-0-0
- January 25: Won in OT 4-3 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1538)
- January 27: Won in SO 3-2 @ Ottawa Senators (23th, 1455)
- January 29: Won 2-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (30th, 1413)
- January 30: Won 2-1 vs. San Jose Sharks (22th, 1462)
Next week:
- No games scheduled (All-Star Break)
3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1584, ▲2)
Record: 27-10-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%
Last week: 2-0-0
- January 26: Won in SO 4-3 vs. Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1492)
- January 29: Won 7-4 @ Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1435)
Next week:
- January 31: vs. New Jersey Devils (30th, 1413)
- February 1: @ New Jersey Devils (30th, 1413)
4. Florida Panthers ▲2 (1577, ▲10)
Record: 31-9-5, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-0
- January 25: Won 5-3 @ Winnipeg Jets (18th, 1495)
- January 27: Won 4-1 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1538)
- January 29: Won in OT 5-4 vs. San Jose Sharks (22th, 1462)
Next week:
- January 31: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (25th, 1444)
- February 1: @ New York Rangers (8th, 1559)
5. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲3 (1568, ▲3)
Record: 29-10-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%
Last week: 1-0-1
- January 27: Won 3-2 vs. New Jersey Devils (30th, 1413)
- January 29: Lost in SO 3-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1538)
Next week:
- February 1: vs. San Jose Sharks (22th, 1462)
- No games scheduled (All Star Break)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1612 (▲10) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 1592 (▲3) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 1584 (▲2) 4 Florida Panthers (▲2) 1577 (▲10) 5 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3) 1568 (▲3) 6 Minnesota Wild (▲4) 1565 (▲20) 7 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3) 1564 (▼15) 8 New York Rangers (▼3) 1559 (▼17) 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) 1554 (▼11) 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2) 1554 (▼12) 11 Nashville Predators (▲1) 1542 (▲6) 12 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 1538 (▲6) 13 Washington Capitals (▼2) 1531 (▼11) 14 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 1522 (▲19) 15 Calgary Flames (▼1) 1517 (▲8) 16 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 1504 (▲6) 17 Dallas Stars (▲2) 1499 (▲14) 18 Winnipeg Jets (▼2) 1495 (▼6) 19 Anaheim Ducks (▲2) 1492 (▲28) 20 Vancouver Canucks 1486 (▲10) 21 New York Islanders (▼3) 1484 (▼10) 22 San Jose Sharks (▲1) 1462 (▲9) 23 Ottawa Senators (▼1) 1455 24 Chicago Blackhawks 1448 (▼1) 25 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 1444 (▲10) 26 Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 1435 (▼9) 27 Philadelphia Flyers 1420 (▼11) 28 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 1419 (▼1) 28 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) 1419 (▼6) 30 New Jersey Devils (▼2) 1413 (▼14) 31 Arizona Coyotes 1395 (▼16) 32 Montreal Canadiens 1385 (▼24)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 70% (▲23) 2 New York Rangers 15% (▼10) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins 13% (▼10) 4 Washington Capitals 3% (▼3) 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 5 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 46% (▲11) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 30% 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 21% (▼4) 4 Boston Bruins 3% (▼7) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 77% (▲9) 2 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 16% (▲3) 3 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 4% (▼10) 4 Nashville Predators 3% (▼2) 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 5 (tie) Dallas Stars <1% 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 36% (▼4) 2 Calgary Flames 26% 3 Los Angeles Kings 16% (▲2) 4 Edmonton Oilers 11% (▲1) 5 Anaheim Ducks 8% (▲4) 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks 2% (▼1) 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 2% 8 Seattle Kraken <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes >99% (▲1) 2 (tie) New York Rangers 98% 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 98% 4 Washington Capitals 90% 5 New York Islanders 12% (▼4) 6 Columbus Blue Jackets 5% (▲2) 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% (▼1) 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) <1%
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Florida Panthers >99% (▲1) 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning >99% (▲1) 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2) >99% (▲2) 4 Boston Bruins 93% (▼1) 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings 2% (▼1) 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) 2% 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche >99% 2 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 98% (▲4) 3 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 93% (▼4) 4 Nashville Predators 90% 5 Dallas Stars 46% (▲6) 6 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 25% (▼15) 7 Chicago Blackhawks 2% (▼2) 8 Arizona Coyotes <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 82% (▼1) 2 Calgary Flames 72% (▲1) 3 Los Angeles Kings 63% (▲5) 4 Edmonton Oilers 50% (▲3) 5 Anaheim Ducks 47% (▲15) 6 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 17% (▼4) 7 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 16% (▼6) 8 Seattle Kraken <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 38% (▲9) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 22% (▲4) 3 Florida Panthers 15% (▲3) 4 Toronto Maple Leafs 9% (▼1) 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3) 5% (▲2) 5 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 5% (▼3) 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1) 1% (▼5) 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 1% (▼5) 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) 1% (▼2)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 15% (▲2) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 11% (▲1) 3 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2) 8% (▲1) 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 8% 5 Minnesota Wild (▲5) 7% (▲2) 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3) 6% (▼2) 6 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2) 6% 8 (tie) Boston Bruins 5% (▼1) 8 (tie) New York Rangers (▼3) 5% (▼2) 8 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼3) 5% (▼2) 11 (tie) Nashville Predators 4% 11 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 4% 13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) 3% 13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 3% (▲1) 13 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2) 3% (▼1) 16 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 2% 17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks 1% 17 (tie) Dallas Stars 1% 17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks 1% 17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 1% 21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2) <1% 21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2) <1% 21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) <1% 21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) <1% 21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2) <1% 21 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2) <1% 21 (tie) New York Islanders (▼4) <1% (▼1) 21 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2) <1% 21 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2) <1% 21 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) <1% 21 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼4) <1% (▼1) 21 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2) <1%