It turns out that it’s very hard to get coverage of hockey when you’re on a cruise ship in the Caribbean! And, the internet on this ship is pretty bad, so I can’t VPN back home to watch any games. So, I’ve been hockey-less for a little over a week now. But, I am able to watch the Under-19 Men’s Cricket World Cup on ESPN! Unfortunately, that’s small consolation.
But, I did get to watch NFL football this weekend! What a great set of games! This may have been the best weekend of NFL games in history. 3 games ended with 3 point differences, and the one that didn’t went into overtime, in what may have been the greatest football game I have ever seen! None of my teams are still in it (none even made the playoffs), but I am cheering for Kansas City a bit, as Patrick Mahomes’ dad used to play for the Mets, and he’s one of the coaches at Fantasy Camp. He hasn’t been at any of the camps I’ve been to, but I hope to meet him some day!
Speaking of baseball, on Sunday I noticed quite a few people on the cruise ship wearing Cardinals jerseys, T-shirts, and caps. Like, a lot. So, I wondered what was up, and I googled “St. Louis Cardinals cruise”, and it turns out that there’s a Cardinals cruise every year, and it’s going on on this boat! There are four Cardinals alumni on the ship: John Tudor, Ray Lankford, Brian Jordan, and Danny Cox. I’m not a huge Cardinals fan, but I’d probably recognize John Tudor if I ran into him. Anyways, more information is available at https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/fans/cardinals-cruise.
But, on to hockey! The NHL has released the updated schedule, and games are going on as usual now. With players no longer going to the Olympics, the league is playing through their original break, and will still finish the schedule by the original end date, April 29th. We are almost halfway through the regular season, so let’s hope COVID stays away enough to get the season done.
As seems to be the usual case lately, there’s been little change to the top 5 teams in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings again this week. Colorado remains on top, followed closely by Carolina and Toronto. Pittsburgh returns to the top 5, pushing Florida out, but the New York Rangers remain in the top 5.
Colorado had a 4-0-0 week, with two wins in regulation, one in overtime, and one in a shootout. They are back over the 1600 rating point line, weighing in now at 1602 points, up 5 from last week. In our simulations, they make the playoffs over 99% of the time, so it looks like they’re pretty much a shoe-in for the playoffs. They are also our favourites to win the President’s Trophy, up 11% to 29% this week, and our top pick for the Stanley Cup, up 1% to 13%.
Carolina went 2-1-0 this week, picking up 4 rating points to sit at 1589. Although they are currently 3rd in the Metropolitan Division, we’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 18% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 10% chance of winning the Cup.
Toronto had a quiet week, with only two games, both in New York. They lost to the 5th-ranked Rangers, but beat the 18th-ranked Islanders. Despite splitting games against lower-ranked teams, because they were road games, we didn’t feel it was necessary to change their rating one way or the other. They’ve got another quiet week coming up, with only 2 games on the schedule.
Pittsburgh had a good week, going 4-0-0, with 3 regulation wins and 1 shootout win. This was good enough for them to pick up 15 rating points, pushing them back into the top 5, currently ranked 4th. They are 2nd in the Metropolitan Division, with a 98% chance of making the playoffs.
Rounding out the top 5 are the New York Rangers, who sit in 1st in the Metropolitan Division. They went 2-1-0 this week, beating 3rd-ranked Toronto but losing to 2nd-ranked Carolina, and they finished up the week with an easy 7-3 victory over 31st-ranked Arizona.
That Metropolitan Division is looking like a tough division, with 3 of our top 5 teams coming from there. The Rangers, ranked 5th, are in 1st place in the division, with 58 points in 42 games; 4th-ranked Pittsburgh is in 2nd place, with 57 points in 41 games; and 2nd-ranked Carolina is in 3rd, with 56 points in 38 games. It should be an interesting division for the rest of the season!
Florida had a bad week. They were ranked 4th last week, but after going 2-2-0 this week with one of their wins coming in a shootout, they dropped 12 rating points down to 6th in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings. They are still 1st in the Atlantic Division, and have a 99% chance of making the playoffs, but need to be playing better.
One of the standards I use for telling how good a team is doing is the 90% rule; if a team has a 90% chance of making the playoffs, I expect them to be pretty much in. Right now, there are 8 teams in the Eastern Conference at or above that 90% mark, so it looks like the playoff teams are set in the East, despite the season not being quite half over! The teams are:
Carolina Hurricanes 99% Florida Panthers 99% Tampa Bay Lightning 99% New York Rangers 98% Pittsburgh Penguins 98% Toronto Maple Leafs 98% Boston Bruins 94% Washington Capitals 90%
It’s a little different in the Western Conference. In the Central Division, four teams are above that 90% mark, but there are none in the Pacific Division. Those four shoe-in teams are:
Colorado Avalanche >99% St. Louis Blues 97% Minnesota Wild 94% Nashville Predators 90%
Besides these four, there are 9 teams battling it out for the remaining four playoff spots:
Vegas Golden Knights 83% Calgary Flames 71% Los Angeles Kings 58% Edmonton Oilers 47% Dallas Stars 40% Winnipeg Jets 40% Anaheim Ducks 32% San Jose Sharks 22% Vancouver Canucks 21%
Realistically, I don’t think Chicago (4% chance of making the playoffs), Arizona (<1%), and Seattle (also <1%) have any chance at all. I’ll be keeping an eye on all these playoff races, even though it’s only almost halfway through the season.
The big movers this week were St. Louis (up) and Philadelphia (down). St. Louis went 3-0-0, with two of those wins coming on the road. They have been quietly moving up the rankings, and we’ve now got them ranked 7th, up 3 spots from last week. They also picked up 20 rating points, and now sit with 1566 McDonald NHL Power Ratings points. We’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 3% chance of winning the President’s Trophy (up from 1% last week), and a 7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup (up from 5%).
It was a bad week for Philadelphia, as they went 0-3-1. They lost twice to the 18th-ranked Islanders, once in overtime, and also lost to 26th-ranked Columbus and 30th-ranked Buffalo. With this week’s poor performance, they lost 22 rating points and now sit in 27th spot in our rankings. We’re now giving them less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs.
I hate ending this report on a sad note, but I will. Clark Gillies, a key member of the early 1980s Islanders teams that won 4 straight Stanley Cups, died this week at 67. He was born in Moose Jaw and played junior hockey for the Regina Pats. Former teammates and regular people who met him were universal in their praise for him. I was an Islanders fan back then, and it’s always sad to hear of the loss of someone you cheered for.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1602, ▲5)
Record: 28-8-3, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 29% (▲11)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▲1)
Last week: 4-0-0
- January 17: Won in SO 4-3 vs. Minnesota Wild (10th, 1545)
- January 19: Won 2-0 @ Anaheim Ducks (21th, 1464)
- January 20: Won 4-1 @ Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1503)
- January 22: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (32th, 1409)
Next week:
- January 24: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1449)
- January 26: vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1565)
- January 28: @ Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1449)
- January 30: vs. Buffalo Sabres (30th, 1420)
2. Carolina Hurricanes (1589, ▲4)
Record: 27-9-2, 3rd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 18%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- January 18: Won 7-1 @ Boston Bruins (8th, 1565)
- January 21: Won 6-3 vs. New York Rangers (5th, 1576)
- January 22: Lost 7-4 @ New Jersey Devils (28th, 1427)
Next week:
- January 25: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1532)
- January 27: @ Ottawa Senators (22th, 1455)
- January 29: vs. New Jersey Devils (28th, 1427)
- January 30: vs. San Jose Sharks (23th, 1453)
3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1582)
Record: 25-10-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▼3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%
Last week: 1-1-0
- January 19: Lost 6-3 @ New York Rangers (5th, 1576)
- January 22: Won 3-1 @ New York Islanders (18th, 1494)
Next week:
- January 26: vs. Anaheim Ducks (21th, 1464)
- January 29: @ Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1444)
4. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲2 (1579, ▲15)
Record: 26-10-5, 2nd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98% (▲6)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▲3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)
Last week: 4-0-0
- January 17: Won 5-3 @ Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1532)
- January 20: Won 6-4 vs. Ottawa Senators (22th, 1455)
- January 21: Won 5-2 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1434)
- January 23: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1501)
Next week:
- January 25: vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1411)
- January 27: vs. Seattle Kraken (29th, 1425)
- January 28: vs. Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1444)
- January 30: vs. Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1503)
5. New York Rangers (1576, ▲5)
Record: 27-11-4, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%
Last week: 2-1-0
- January 19: Won 6-3 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1582)
- January 21: Lost 6-3 @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1589)
- January 22: Won 7-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1411)
Next week:
- January 24: vs. Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1503)
- January 27: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1434)
- January 28: vs. Minnesota Wild (10th, 1545)
- January 30: vs. Seattle Kraken (29th, 1425)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1602 (▲5) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 1589 (▲4) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 1582 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 1579 (▲15) 5 New York Rangers 1576 (▲5) 6 Florida Panthers (▼2) 1567 (▼12) 7 St. Louis Blues (▲3) 1566 (▲20) 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) 1565 (▲4) 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 1565 (▲4) 10 Minnesota Wild (▲3) 1545 (▲5) 11 Washington Capitals (▼2) 1542 (▼12) 12 Nashville Predators 1536 (▼6) 13 Vegas Golden Knights (▼2) 1532 (▼11) 14 Calgary Flames (▲1) 1509 (▲1) 15 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 1503 (▼14) 16 Winnipeg Jets 1501 (▼6) 17 Edmonton Oilers 1498 18 New York Islanders 1494 (▲4) 19 Dallas Stars 1485 (▼3) 20 Vancouver Canucks 1476 (▲4) 21 Anaheim Ducks 1464 (▲3) 22 Ottawa Senators (▲1) 1455 (▼2) 23 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 1453 (▼6) 24 Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 1449 (▼3) 25 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 1444 (▼5) 26 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 1434 (▼5) 27 Philadelphia Flyers (▼3) 1431 (▼22) 28 New Jersey Devils 1427 (▼6) 29 Seattle Kraken 1425 (▲12) 30 Buffalo Sabres 1420 (▲9) 31 Arizona Coyotes 1411 (▲6) 32 Montreal Canadiens 1409 (▲12)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 47% (▼2) 2 New York Rangers 25% (▼2) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins 23% (▲9) 4 Washington Capitals 6% (▼4) 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 5 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 35% (▼9) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 30% (▲2) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 25% (▲5) 4 Boston Bruins 10% (▲2) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 68% (▲8) 2 St. Louis Blues (▲2) 14% (▲3) 3 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 13% (▼2) 4 Nashville Predators (▼1) 5% (▼7) 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2) <1% 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) <1% 5 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) <1% (▼1) 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1% (▼2)
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 40% 2 Calgary Flames 26% (▲4) 3 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 14% (▼8) 4 Edmonton Oilers 10% (▲2) 5 Anaheim Ducks 4% (▲1) 6 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 3% 7 Vancouver Canucks 2% 8 Seattle Kraken <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 99% 2 (tie) New York Rangers 98% (▲1) 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 98% (▲6) 4 Washington Capitals 90% 5 New York Islanders 16% (▲1) 6 Columbus Blue Jackets 3% (▼2) 7 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 1% (▼1) 8 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) <1% (▼3)
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Florida Panthers 99% 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 99% (▲1) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 98% 4 Boston Bruins 94% (▲3) 5 Detroit Red Wings 3% (▼2) 6 Ottawa Senators 2% (▼1) 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche >99% (▲1) 2 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 97% (▲8) 3 Minnesota Wild 94% (▲5) 4 Nashville Predators (▼2) 90% 5 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) 40% (▲3) 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 40% (▼10) 7 Chicago Blackhawks 4% (▼2) 8 Arizona Coyotes <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 83% (▼2) 2 Calgary Flames (▲1) 71% (▲3) 3 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 58% (▼13) 4 Edmonton Oilers 47% (▲3) 5 Anaheim Ducks 32% (▲5) 6 San Jose Sharks 22% (▼4) 7 Vancouver Canucks 21% (▲3) 8 Seattle Kraken <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 29% (▲11) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 18% 3 Florida Panthers (▼2) 12% (▼10) 4 Toronto Maple Leafs 10% (▼3) 5 Tampa Bay Lightning 8% 6 (tie) New York Rangers 6% (▼1) 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 6% (▲3) 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) 3% 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1) 3% 8 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4) 3% (▲2) 11 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) 1% (▼1) 11 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) 1% (▼1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 13% (▲1) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 10% (▲1) 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3) 8% (▲2) 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 8% 5 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2) 7% (▼1) 5 (tie) New York Rangers 7% 5 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4) 7% (▲2) 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2) 6% 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2) 6% 10 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 5% 11 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼2) 4% (▼1) 11 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2) 4% (▼1) 11 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2) 4% (▼1) 14 Calgary Flames 3% 15 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 2% 15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 2% (▼1) 17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 1% 17 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) 1% 17 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) 1% 17 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) 1% 17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1% 17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 1% (▼1) 23 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 23 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 23 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 23 (tie) Seattle Kraken <1%