There was a slight bit of movement in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings this week, but not much. Colorado remains in top spot, but Carolina dropped from a tie for 1st down into 2nd. Toronto remains in third, and Florida has entered the top 5 in fourth spot. Florida pushed the Rangers down to 5th, and forced Pittsburgh back out of the top 5, who are now at 6th.
Despite being ranked at the top of our ratings for much of the season, Colorado hasn’t been in first place in the Central Division, until now. They’ve finally taken over 1st, and remain our highest ranked team. They went 3-0-1 this week, but only gained 5 rating points, as their victories came against Seattle, ranked 29th, and two against Arizona, ranked 31st. Their only game against a top-half club came in a 5-4 overtime loss to 12th ranked Nashville. But, we’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 18% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and they are our favourite to win the Stanley Cup, at 12%.
Carolina dropped down to second in our rankings, after going 1-1-0 this week. They got thumped by 27th-ranked Columbus, 6-0, but came back with a 4-1 win over 20th-ranked Vancouver. Their game against Philadelphia was postponed due to COVID. Despite their uneven week, we’re still giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs.
Toronto remains 3rd in our rankings. They had two wins against tough teams this week, beating 11th-ranked Vegas in a shootout and 10th-ranked St. Louis in a high-scoring 6-5 game. But, then they lost 2-1 to lowly Arizona (31st). We’ve calculated that they have a 98% chance of making the playoffs. Our models calculate that they have an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, but our team of experts has overruled our model and determined that they have a 0% chance, due to the Harold Ballard curse. We don’t think they’ll win the Stanley Cup until they exhume Ballard’s body and rebury it in some corner in Sweden, with a pocketful of unbroken eggs. But, that won’t ever happen, because Sweden doesn’t deserve that!
Florida, 1st in the Atlantic Division, moved into our Top 5 after a very strong week, going 3-0 and outscoring their opposition by a combined 21-5. Their wins came against 20th-ranked Vancouver (5-2), 19th-ranked Dallas (7-1), and 27th-ranked Columbus (9-2). They have a 99% chance of making the playoffs, and are now our favourites to win the President’s Trophy, with our models showing them winning that in 22% of our simulations, up from 13% last week!
Rounding out the top 5 this week are the New York Rangers. They lead the Metropolitan Division, and had a 2-1-0 record on the road this week, losing to 14th-ranked Los Angeles before defeating San Jose (22nd) and Philadelphia (24th). They have a tough week coming up, facing top 5 teams Toronto and Carolina, then facing 31st-ranked giant killers Arizona.
The top upward-movers this week were Los Angeles and Ottawa. Los Angeles went 3-0-0 this week, gaining 22 rating points and moving up 3 spots in our rankings to 14th. They beat the 5th-ranked Rangers and 6th-ranked Pittsburgh at home before travelling to Seattle to beat the 29th-ranked Kraken. Ottawa only had two games this week, both on the road, and they beat 15th-ranked Edmonton and 17th-ranked Calgary. But, this was enough to gain them 20 McDonald NHL Power Ratings rating points, and moved them up the ladder from 28th to 23rd. But, we’re still only giving them a 3% chance of making the playoffs, up from 2% last week, so they’ve got a lot more winning to do before the season is done!
The big downward-movers this week were Seattle and Anaheim. The Kraken lost all 4 of their games this week, and dropped 19 rating points. They still remain ranked 29th overall, though. Anaheim lost all 3 of their games, and our simulations now show them only having a 27% chance of making the playoffs, down from 47% last week!
On a side note, I just took a look at the schedule. There are currently 98 games that have been postponed and need to be rescheduled. The earliest postponed game was originally scheduled for November 18th, and the latest is January 18th. Those schedule makers better get busy and get things updated if we’re going to have a full season of hockey! The Leafs are probably starting to get itchy for their golf tee times!
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1597, ▲5)
Record: 24-8-3, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 18% (▲3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-1
- January 10: Won 4-3 vs. Seattle Kraken (29th, 1413)
- January 11: Lost in OT 5-4 @ Nashville Predators (12th, 1542)
- January 14: Won in SO 4-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1405)
- January 15: Won 5-0 @ Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1405)
Next week:
- January 17: vs. Minnesota Wild (13th, 1540)
- January 19: @ Anaheim Ducks (21th, 1461)
- January 20: @ Los Angeles Kings (14th, 1517)
- January 22: vs. Montreal Canadiens (32th, 1397)
2. Carolina Hurricanes ▼1 (1585, ▼7)
Record: 25-8-2, 2nd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 18% (▼8)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)
Last week: 1-1-0
- January 11: Postponed @ Philadelphia Flyers (24th, 1453)
- January 13: Lost 6-0 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1439)
- January 15: Won 4-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (20th, 1472)
Next week:
- January 18: @ Boston Bruins (7th, 1561)
- January 21: vs. New York Rangers (5th, 1571)
- January 22: @ New Jersey Devils (28th, 1433)
3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1582, ▼2)
Record: 24-9-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- January 11: Won in SO 4-3 @ Vegas Golden Knights (11th, 1543)
- January 12: Lost 2-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1405)
- January 15: Won 6-5 @ St. Louis Blues (10th, 1546)
Next week:
- January 17: Postponed vs. New Jersey Devils (28th, 1433)
- January 19: @ New York Rangers (5th, 1571)
- January 22: @ New York Islanders (18th, 1490)
4. Florida Panthers ▲3 (1579, ▲14)
Record: 26-7-5, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 22% (▲9)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-0
- January 11: Won 5-2 vs. Vancouver Canucks (20th, 1472)
- January 14: Won 7-1 vs. Dallas Stars (19th, 1488)
- January 15: Won 9-2 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1439)
Next week:
- January 18: @ Calgary Flames (15th, 1508)
- January 20: @ Edmonton Oilers (17th, 1498)
- January 21: @ Vancouver Canucks (20th, 1472)
- January 23: @ Seattle Kraken (29th, 1413)
5. New York Rangers ▼1 (1571, ▲4)
Record: 25-10-4, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 97% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 7%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- January 10: Lost 3-1 @ Los Angeles Kings (14th, 1517)
- January 13: Won 3-0 @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1459)
- January 15: Won 3-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (24th, 1453)
Next week:
- January 19: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1582)
- January 21: @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1585)
- January 22: vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1405)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1597 (▲5) 2 Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 1585 (▼7) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 1582 (▼2) 4 Florida Panthers (▲3) 1579 (▲14) 5 New York Rangers (▼1) 1571 (▲4) 6 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2) 1564 (▼3) 7 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲4) 1561 (▲17) 7 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3) 1561 (▲16) 9 Washington Capitals (▼3) 1554 (▼12) 10 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 1546 (▼4) 11 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 1543 12 Nashville Predators (▼4) 1542 (▼10) 13 Minnesota Wild 1540 (▲5) 14 Los Angeles Kings (▲3) 1517 (▲22) 15 Calgary Flames (▼1) 1508 (▼10) 16 Winnipeg Jets 1507 (▲7) 17 Edmonton Oilers (▼2) 1498 (▼10) 18 New York Islanders (▲1) 1490 (▼1) 19 Dallas Stars (▼1) 1488 (▼5) 20 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1472 (▼4) 21 Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 1461 (▼18) 22 San Jose Sharks 1459 (▼6) 23 Ottawa Senators (▲5) 1457 (▲20) 24 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 1453 (▼11) 25 Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 1452 (▲13) 26 Detroit Red Wings (▼2) 1449 27 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2) 1439 (▼1) 28 New Jersey Devils (▼2) 1433 (▼6) 29 Seattle Kraken 1413 (▼19) 30 Buffalo Sabres 1411 (▼1) 31 Arizona Coyotes (▲1) 1405 (▲10) 32 Montreal Canadiens (▼1) 1397 (▼2)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 49% (▼3) 2 New York Rangers 27% (▲5) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 14% (▲2) 4 Washington Capitals (▼1) 10% (▼4) 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 5 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers (▲1) 44% (▲6) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 28% (▼11) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 20% (▲3) 4 Boston Bruins 8% (▲2) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 60% (▲10) 2 Minnesota Wild (▲2) 15% (▲2) 3 Nashville Predators (▼1) 12% (▼7) 4 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 11% (▼4) 5 Winnipeg Jets 2% (▲1) 6 Dallas Stars (▼1) 1% 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 40% (▲3) 2 (tie) Calgary Flames 22% (▼6) 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3) 22% (▲14) 4 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 8% (▼4) 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 3% (▼6) 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) 3% (▼1) 7 Vancouver Canucks 2% (▼1) 8 Seattle Kraken <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 99% 2 New York Rangers 97% (▲1) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 92% 4 Washington Capitals (▼1) 90% (▼4) 5 New York Islanders 15% (▼4) 6 Columbus Blue Jackets 5% (▼4) 7 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 3% (▼6) 8 New Jersey Devils 2% (▼1)
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 99% (▲1) 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 98% (▲4) 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 98% 4 Boston Bruins 91% (▲12) 5 Detroit Red Wings 5% (▼3) 6 Ottawa Senators 3% (▲1) 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% (▼1) 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 99% (▲2) 2 Nashville Predators 90% (▼1) 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1) 89% (▲4) 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues 89% 5 Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 50% (▲9) 6 Dallas Stars (▼1) 37% (▼5) 7 Chicago Blackhawks 6% (▲3) 8 Arizona Coyotes <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 85% (▲2) 2 Los Angeles Kings (▲3) 71% (▲27) 3 Calgary Flames (▼1) 68% (▼6) 4 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 44% (▼8) 5 Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 27% (▼20) 6 San Jose Sharks 26% (▼1) 7 Vancouver Canucks 18% (▼5) 8 Seattle Kraken <1% (▼1)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Florida Panthers (▲3) 22% (▲9) 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 18% (▼8) 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche 18% (▲3) 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 13% (▼1) 5 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2) 8% (▲4) 6 New York Rangers (▼1) 7% 7 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲5) 3% (▲2) 7 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3) 3% (▲1) 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 3% (▼1) 10 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) 2% (▼1) 10 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼4) 2% (▼3) 12 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2) 1% (▼1) 12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 1%
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 12% (▲1) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 9% (▼1) 3 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1) 8% (▲1) 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 8% (▼1) 5 New York Rangers 7% (▲1) 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲6) 6% (▲2) 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 6% 6 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3) 6% (▲1) 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3) 5% (▲1) 9 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼4) 5% (▼1) 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues 5% 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 5% 9 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼4) 5% (▼1) 14 (tie) Calgary Flames 3% 14 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 3% (▲1) 16 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 2% 16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 2% 18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks 1% 18 (tie) Dallas Stars 1% 18 (tie) New York Islanders 1% 18 (tie) San Jose Sharks 1% 18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks 1% 23 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 23 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 23 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 23 (tie) Seattle Kraken <1%