It was another interesting week in the NHL, with a number of games being postponed due to COVID, mostly affecting games in Canada. With the hospitals overflowing in Ontario and British Columbia, the provincial governments have put gathering restrictions in place, limiting attendance at hockey games to 50% of capacity. Needing the ticket revenue, the NHL has postponed most of those games, hoping to reschedule those games when the restrictions have ended. But, they’re running out of schedule to fit those games in, so we may be seeing games back in Canada soon. Interestingly enough, Winnipeg was talking about moving some of their games to Saskatoon, where there are no capacity restrictions in place, but have decided to stay in Winnipeg.
As a result of the game postponements, there were no Hockey Night In Canada games in Canada on Saturday night! There were four scheduled, two early games and two late games, but none of them went ahead. Unfortunately, I had other plans that night, so I didn’t get a chance to see which games CBC showed instead.
There wasn’t a lot of movement in the Top 5 teams this week. Colorado continues to be our top-ranked team, although they now share that spot with Carolina. Colorado won all three of their games this week, although two of those games were in overtime. Although they are in 3rd spot in the Central Division, and I don’t know when, if ever, they were in first this year, they are only 4 points behind first-place Nashville and 3 points behind St. Louis, but they do have 5 games in hand, as they’ve only played 31 games and the top two teams have each played 36.
Carolina has moved into a tie for the top spot in our rankings, despite going 1-0-1 this week, with one postponed game. They are our most-likely team to make the playoffs, as we’re giving them a 99% chance, and our top contender for the President’s Trophy, at 26%.
Toronto remains in 3rd spot after going 1-0-1, with two postponed games. They beat 15th-ranked Edmonton at home, then lost to top-ranked Colorado in overtime. Our models give them a 98% chance of making the playoffs and a 9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, but anyone who follows hockey knows that their Stanley Cup chances are 0%, thanks to the Curse of Harold Ballard! Their strong showing so far this season is just setting their fans up to break their hearts, something I know about well, being a Roughrider fan!
The Rangers moved into the top 5 this week, up from 6th to 4th, in a tie with Pittsburgh in our rankings. They went 2-1-0 this week, and picked up 6 McDonald NHL Power Rating points in the process. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, moved up a spot from 5th to 4th, also going 2-1-0. They pushed Washington out of the top 5, down to 6th, as they went 0-1-1 with a postponed game.
One of the measures I use to determine whether a team is likely to make the playoffs is the 90% rule — if our models give them at least a 90% chance of making the playoffs, they are pretty much guaranteed to make it. Of course, that means there’s still a 1 in 10 chance of them not making it, and with 16 playoff spots, 1 or 2 teams that have a 90% chance won’t make it, but it does give a pretty good indication. Using the 90% rule, there are currently 7 teams in the Eastern Conference that are almost shoe-ins for the playoffs, despite the season not being half over yet:
1 Carolina Hurricanes 99% 2 (tie) Florida Panthers 98% 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 98% 4 New York Rangers 96% 5 (tie) Washington Capitals 94% 5 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 94% 7 Pittsburgh Penguins 92%
The next two teams are Boston, with a 79% chance of making the playoffs, and the Islanders, with a 19% chance.
Meanwhile, things aren’t so clear-cut in the Western Conference, as the only two teams currently above the 90% line are Colorado (97%) and Nashville (91%).
Nashville? 91%? Really??? Yes! They had a 3-0-0 week, which earned them 21 McDonald NHL Power Rating points, and moved them up 5 spots in our rankings to 8th. It also put them in top spot in the Central Division, one point ahead of St. Louis. They have now won their last 4 games, so they are looking strong!
The worst performing team this week was Calgary, who dropped 17 rating points after losing all three of their games this week. That poor showing moved them down 2 spots in our rankings to 14th. In Calgary’s defense, all their games were on the road against strong teams: Florida (ranked 7th), Tampa Bay (10th), and Carolina (1st). They did lose quite badly, though, being outscored on the week 16-6.
The top 5
1 (tie). Carolina Hurricanes ▲1 (1592, ▲4)
Record: 24-7-2, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 26%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10%
Last week: 1-0-1
- January 3: Postponed @ Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1584)
- January 7: Won 6-3 vs. Calgary Flames (14th, 1518)
- January 8: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Florida Panthers (7th, 1565)
Next week:
- January 11: @ Philadelphia Flyers (23th, 1464)
- January 13: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (25th, 1440)
- January 15: vs. Vancouver Canucks (21th, 1476)
1 (tie). Colorado Avalanche (1592, ▲2)
Record: 21-8-2, 3rd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 97% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11%
Last week: 3-0-0
- January 4: Won in OT 4-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1439)
- January 6: Won 7-1 vs. Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1500)
- January 8: Won in OT 5-4 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1584)
Next week:
- January 10: vs. Seattle Kraken (29th, 1432)
- January 11: @ Nashville Predators (8th, 1552)
- January 14: vs. Arizona Coyotes (32th, 1395)
- January 15: @ Arizona Coyotes (32th, 1395)
3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1584, ▲6)
Record: 22-8-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 14% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)
Last week: 1-0-1
- January 3: Postponed vs. Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1592)
- January 5: Won 4-2 vs. Edmonton Oilers (15th, 1508)
- January 6: Postponed @ Montreal Canadiens (31th, 1399)
- January 8: Lost in OT 5-4 @ Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1592)
Next week:
- January 11: @ Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1543)
- January 12: @ Arizona Coyotes (32th, 1395)
- January 15: @ St. Louis Blues (9th, 1550)
4 (tie). New York Rangers ▲2 (1567, ▲6)
Record: 23-9-4, 2nd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 96% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%
Last week: 2-1-0
- January 3: Won 4-1 vs. Edmonton Oilers (15th, 1508)
- January 6: Lost 5-1 @ Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1543)
- January 8: Won 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (20th, 1479)
Next week:
- January 10: @ Los Angeles Kings (17th, 1495)
- January 13: @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1465)
- January 15: @ Philadelphia Flyers (23th, 1464)
4 (tie). Pittsburgh Penguins ▲1 (1567, ▲4)
Record: 20-9-5, 4th in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 92% (▲4)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 4%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%
Last week: 2-1-0
- January 5: Won 5-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (9th, 1550)
- January 6: Won 6-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (23th, 1464)
- January 8: Lost 3-2 @ Dallas Stars (18th, 1493)
Next week:
- January 11: @ Anaheim Ducks (20th, 1479)
- January 13: @ Los Angeles Kings (17th, 1495)
- January 15: @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1465)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 1592 (▲4) 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche 1592 (▲2) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 1584 (▲6) 4 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2) 1567 (▲6) 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 1567 (▲4) 6 Washington Capitals (▼2) 1566 (▼7) 7 Florida Panthers 1565 (▲6) 8 Nashville Predators (▲5) 1552 (▲21) 9 St. Louis Blues 1550 (▲8) 10 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 1545 (▲3) 11 Boston Bruins 1544 (▲5) 12 Vegas Golden Knights (▼4) 1543 (▼13) 13 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 1535 (▲9) 14 Calgary Flames (▼2) 1518 (▼17) 15 Edmonton Oilers 1508 (▼11) 16 Winnipeg Jets 1500 (▲1) 17 Los Angeles Kings 1495 (▼1) 18 Dallas Stars (▲1) 1493 (▲3) 19 New York Islanders (▼1) 1491 20 Anaheim Ducks 1479 (▼1) 21 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1476 22 San Jose Sharks (▲1) 1465 (▲2) 23 Philadelphia Flyers (▼2) 1464 (▼14) 24 Detroit Red Wings 1449 (▲2) 25 Columbus Blue Jackets 1440 (▼6) 26 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) 1439 (▲6) 26 (tie) New Jersey Devils 1439 (▼5) 28 Ottawa Senators (▼1) 1437 29 Seattle Kraken 1432 30 Buffalo Sabres 1412 (▼7) 31 Montreal Canadiens 1399 32 Arizona Coyotes 1395 (▼3)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 52% (▲5) 2 New York Rangers (▲1) 22% (▲3) 3 Washington Capitals (▼1) 14% (▼7) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins 12% 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 5 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 39% 2 Florida Panthers 38% (▲4) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 17% (▼2) 4 Boston Bruins 6% (▼1) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 50% 2 Nashville Predators (▲1) 19% (▲5) 3 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 15% (▼3) 4 Minnesota Wild 13% 5 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) 1% (▼1) 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 1% (▼2) 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 37% 2 Calgary Flames (▼1) 28% (▼9) 3 Edmonton Oilers 12% (▼1) 4 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 9% (▲4) 5 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 8% (▲2) 6 San Jose Sharks 4% (▲2) 7 Vancouver Canucks (▼1) 3% (▲1) 8 Seattle Kraken <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 99% (▲1) 2 New York Rangers (▲1) 96% (▲2) 3 Washington Capitals (▼1) 94% (▼1) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins 92% (▲4) 5 New York Islanders 19% 6 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 9% (▼4) 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers 9% (▼9) 8 New Jersey Devils 3% (▼3)
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Florida Panthers 98% (▲2) 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 98% (▲2) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 94% (▲2) 4 Boston Bruins 79% (▲5) 5 Detroit Red Wings 8% (▼1) 6 Ottawa Senators 2% 7 Buffalo Sabres 1% 8 Montreal Canadiens <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 97% (▲2) 2 Nashville Predators (▲1) 91% (▲11) 3 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 89% (▲3) 4 Minnesota Wild 85% (▲8) 5 Dallas Stars (▲1) 42% (▲2) 6 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 41% (▼3) 7 Chicago Blackhawks 3% 8 Arizona Coyotes <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 83% (▼5) 2 Calgary Flames 74% (▼12) 3 Edmonton Oilers 52% (▼12) 4 Anaheim Ducks 47% (▲2) 5 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 44% (▼1) 6 San Jose Sharks 27% (▲3) 7 Vancouver Canucks 23% (▲1) 8 Seattle Kraken 1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Carolina Hurricanes 26% 2 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 15% (▲4) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 14% (▲1) 4 Florida Panthers (▼1) 13% (▲2) 5 New York Rangers (▲1) 7% (▼1) 6 Washington Capitals (▼1) 5% (▼4) 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 4% 7 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 4% (▼1) 9 Nashville Predators (▲3) 3% (▲2) 10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2) 2% (▲1) 10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) 2% 12 (tie) Boston Bruins 1% 12 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼3) 1% (▼2) 12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼3) 1% (▼2)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 11% 2 Carolina Hurricanes 10% 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 9% (▲1) 4 Florida Panthers (▲1) 7% (▲1) 5 (tie) New York Rangers 6% 5 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲7) 6% (▲2) 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 6% 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2) 6% (▼2) 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues 5% 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 5% 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼4) 5% (▼1) 12 (tie) Boston Bruins 4% 12 (tie) Minnesota Wild 4% 14 Calgary Flames (▼5) 3% (▼2) 15 (tie) Edmonton Oilers 2% (▼1) 15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 2% 15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 2% 18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks 1% 18 (tie) Dallas Stars 1% 18 (tie) New York Islanders 1% 18 (tie) San Jose Sharks 1% 18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks 1% 23 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) <1% 23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) <1% 23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) <1% 23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) <1% 23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 23 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼5) <1% (▼1) 23 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) <1%