Happy New Year!
It was another uncertain week in the NHL, with lots of games cancelled due to COVID. There was also the Christmas break in there, which got extended due to COVID. And, the NHL has announced that the NHL players won’t be taking part in the Olympics, so the Olympic break is no longer necessary. We’re still waiting for the schedule makers to come up with the new schedule, and the NHL has given no information as to when that will be released. With the COVID uncertainties, I can understand why that hasn’t happened yet!
With so few games played this week, there weren’t many big changes to the ratings. The top 4 remain the same, with Colorado on top, just two rating points ahead of #2 Carolina. Toronto is still ranked third, followed by Washington in fourth. New to the top 5 this week is Pittsburgh, who moved up two spots to fifth.
The biggest upward mover this week was Florida, who gained 18 rating points, and moved up from 9th-ranked to 7th, based on their 3-0-0 record this week. Luckily for them, their game against number 2 Carolina was postponed. Their big win of the week was on Dec. 30th, when they blew out Tampa Bay 9-3.
The biggest downward mover was that same Tampa Bay team, who went 1-2-1 this week. Their sole win this week came in overtime against 31st-ranked Montreal.
It’s hard to say what’s going to happen this week, with many more games expected to be postponed due to COVID. We’ll just have to wait and see!
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1590, ▲5)
Record: 18-8-2, 4th in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 95% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 11%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)
Last week: 1-0-0
- December 27: Postponed @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1556)
- December 29: Postponed vs. Dallas Stars (19th, 1490)
- December 31: Postponed @ Dallas Stars (19th, 1490)
- January 2: Won 4-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (20th, 1480)
Next week:
- January 4: @ Chicago Blackhawks (28th, 1433)
- January 6: vs. Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1499)
- January 8: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1578)
2. Carolina Hurricanes (1588, ▲9)
Record: 23-7-1, 2nd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 26% (▲5)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-0
- December 27: Postponed vs. Florida Panthers (7th, 1559)
- December 30: Won 4-0 vs. Montreal Canadiens (31th, 1399)
- January 1: Won 7-4 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (25th, 1446)
Next week:
- January 3: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1578)
- January 7: vs. Calgary Flames (12th, 1535)
- January 8: vs. Florida Panthers (7th, 1559)
3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1578, ▲4)
Record: 21-8-2, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 96%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 13%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%
Last week: 1-0-0
- December 27: Postponed @ Columbus Blue Jackets (25th, 1446)
- December 29: Postponed vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (5th, 1563)
- January 1: Won 6-0 vs. Ottawa Senators (27th, 1437)
Next week:
- January 3: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1588)
- January 5: vs. Edmonton Oilers (15th, 1519)
- January 6: @ Montreal Canadiens (31th, 1399)
- January 8: @ Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1590)
4. Washington Capitals (1573, ▲9)
Record: 20-6-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 95% (▲3)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-1
- December 27: Postponed vs. Ottawa Senators (27th, 1437)
- December 29: Won 5-3 vs. Nashville Predators (13th, 1531)
- December 31: Won 3-1 @ Detroit Red Wings (24th, 1447)
- January 2: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. New Jersey Devils (26th, 1444)
Next week:
- January 4: @ Montreal Canadiens (31th, 1399)
- January 7: @ St. Louis Blues (9th, 1542)
- January 8: @ Minnesota Wild (14th, 1526)
5. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲2 (1563, ▲5)
Record: 18-8-5, 4th in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 88% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 4%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%
Last week: 1-0-0
- December 27: Postponed @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1539)
- December 29: Postponed @ Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1578)
- December 31: Postponed @ Ottawa Senators (27th, 1437)
- January 2: Won 8-5 vs. San Jose Sharks (23th, 1463)
Next week:
- January 5: vs. St. Louis Blues (9th, 1542)
- January 6: @ Philadelphia Flyers (21th, 1478)
- January 8: @ Dallas Stars (19th, 1490)
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1590 (▲5) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 1588 (▲9) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 1578 (▲4) 4 Washington Capitals 1573 (▲9) 5 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 1563 (▲5) 6 New York Rangers 1561 (▲1) 7 Florida Panthers (▲2) 1559 (▲18) 8 Vegas Golden Knights 1556 (▲10) 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4) 1542 (▲15) 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼4) 1542 (▼19) 11 Boston Bruins (▼1) 1539 (▲4) 12 Calgary Flames (▲3) 1535 (▲13) 13 Nashville Predators (▼1) 1531 (▼2) 14 Minnesota Wild (▼3) 1526 (▼8) 15 Edmonton Oilers (▼2) 1519 (▼8) 16 Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 1499 (▲2) 17 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 1496 (▼2) 18 New York Islanders (▲2) 1491 (▲5) 19 Dallas Stars 1490 20 Anaheim Ducks (▼2) 1480 (▼11) 21 Philadelphia Flyers 1478 (▼5) 22 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1476 (▲10) 23 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 1463 (▼8) 24 Detroit Red Wings 1447 (▼13) 25 Columbus Blue Jackets 1446 (▼5) 26 New Jersey Devils (▲3) 1444 (▲12) 27 Ottawa Senators (▲1) 1437 (▼4) 28 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 1433 (▼11) 29 Seattle Kraken (▼3) 1432 (▼15) 30 Buffalo Sabres 1419 (▼10) 31 Montreal Canadiens 1399 (▼3) 32 Arizona Coyotes 1398 (▲2)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 47% (▲4) 2 Washington Capitals (▲1) 21% (▲1) 3 New York Rangers (▼1) 19% (▼4) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins 12% (▼1) 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 5 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 39% (▲3) 2 Florida Panthers (▲1) 34% (▲14) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2) 19% (▼19) 4 Boston Bruins 7% (▲1) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 50% (▲5) 2 St. Louis Blues (▲2) 18% (▲6) 3 Nashville Predators 14% (▼3) 4 Minnesota Wild (▼2) 13% (▼8) 5 Winnipeg Jets 3% (▲1) 6 Dallas Stars (▼1) 2% 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) 37% (▲10) 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 37% (▲7) 3 Edmonton Oilers 13% (▼9) 4 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 6% 5 Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 5% (▼7) 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks 2% (▼1) 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 2% (▲1) 8 Seattle Kraken <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 98% (▲1) 2 Washington Capitals (▲1) 95% (▲3) 3 New York Rangers (▼1) 94% (▲1) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins 88% (▲2) 5 New York Islanders (▲2) 19% (▲4) 6 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 18% (▼5) 7 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 13% (▼4) 8 New Jersey Devils 6% (▲3)
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2) 96% (▲7) 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 96% 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2) 92% (▼4) 4 Boston Bruins 74% (▲6) 5 Detroit Red Wings 9% (▼11) 6 Ottawa Senators 2% (▼1) 7 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 1% (▼2) 8 Montreal Canadiens <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 95% (▲1) 2 St. Louis Blues (▲2) 86% (▲10) 3 Nashville Predators 80% (▼1) 4 Minnesota Wild (▼2) 77% (▼7) 5 Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 44% (▲5) 6 Dallas Stars (▼1) 40% 7 Chicago Blackhawks 3% (▼3) 8 Arizona Coyotes <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 88% (▲6) 2 Calgary Flames 86% (▲9) 3 Edmonton Oilers 64% (▼9) 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks 45% (▼14) 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 45% (▲1) 6 San Jose Sharks 24% (▼1) 7 Vancouver Canucks 22% (▲6) 8 Seattle Kraken 1% (▼3)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Carolina Hurricanes 26% (▲5) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 13% 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 11% 3 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4) 11% (▲5) 5 Washington Capitals (▲1) 9% (▲1) 6 New York Rangers (▼1) 8% (▼1) 7 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼5) 5% (▼9) 8 Pittsburgh Penguins 4% 9 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2) 3% (▲1) 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2) 3% (▲1) 11 St. Louis Blues (▲2) 2% (▲1) 12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1) 1% 12 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3) 1% (▼2) 12 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼3) 1% (▼2)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 11% (▲1) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 10% (▲1) 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 8% 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) 8% (▲1) 5 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4) 6% (▲1) 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) 6% 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 6% 5 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 6% 9 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2) 5% (▲1) 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2) 5% (▲1) 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼5) 5% (▼2) 12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) 4% 12 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3) 4% (▼1) 12 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) 4% 15 Edmonton Oilers (▼4) 3% (▼1) 16 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 2% 16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 2% 18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼2) 1% (▼1) 18 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2) 1% (▼1) 18 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2) 1% 18 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) 1% 18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2) 1% 18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2) 1% 24 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) <1% 24 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) <1% 24 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 24 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) <1% 24 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4) <1% (▼1) 24 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) <1% 24 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 24 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 24 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) <1%
Awesome report Shane. Came across your page a few weeks back and have been patiently waiting for the updated NHL numbers. Go Blues!!
Great! I’m glad you are enjoying the reports. I didn’t think anyone besides me and my son ever looked at them, except by accident!
I was away from my computer for about a month, so hadn’t put together the reports. You’ve given me incentive to keep at it!
The Blues had a good week!