Month: January 2022

We’re now past the halfway point of the NHL season, and will be heading into the All-Star Break this week.  There’s been a little more change in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings Top 5 than what we’re used to, but not much more.  Surprisingly, being only halfway through the season, according to our simulations, it looks like we’ve got most of our playoff teams identified!

Colorado remains at the top of our rankings; in fact, after going 4-0-0 this week, they picked up 10 rating points and now have the highest rating of any team this season.  They are currently first in their division, and we’re giving them a 77% chance of winning the Central.  They have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 38% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 15% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  They are looking strong!

Carolina stays in second spot in our Rankings.  Despite going 4-0-0 this week, they only picked up 2 rating points.  All four of their games were decided by one goal, with one game going into overtime and another going to a shootout.  Still, we’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 70% chance of winning the Metropolitan Division, a 22% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and an 11% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Toronto continues to hold down the third spot in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  They only played twice this week, winning both of their games, with one of the games going into overtime.  Despite being third in the Atlantic Division, we’re still giving them a 30% chance of winning the division.  We’re also giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 9% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 0% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  Hah, just kidding on that last one — I should really stop dumping on the Leafs.  We’re actually giving them an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Florida moved back into the top 5 this week, currently sitting in 4th in our rankings.  They won all three of their games this week, one in overtime, picked up 10 rating points, and jumped from 6th to 4th in our rankings.  They lead the Atlantic Division, and are our favourites to win the division with a 46% chance, up from 35% last week!  They’ve got a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 15% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Rounding out the top 5 is last year’s Stanley Cup champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning.  They went 1-0-1 last week, picking up just 3 rating points, but that was good enough to move them into the top 5.  We’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 5% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

The reason Tampa Bay moved into the top 5 was because last week’s #4 and 5 teams, Pittsburgh and the New York Rangers, had pretty poor weeks.  Pittsburgh lost 15 rating points and dropped to 7th, as they went 1-1-2, with their sole regulation win coming against 31st-ranked Arizona.  The Rangers went 2-2-0, but our algorithms calculated a 17 rating point drop for them, pushing them down into 8th.  Moving ahead of Pittsburgh and the Rangers was Minnesota, who went 3-0-0, including a road win over the aforementioned Rangers, giving them a 20 point boost and moving them up from 10th to 6th in our rankings.

The big upward mover this week was Anaheim.  They went 3-0-1 this week, with their overtime loss coming on the road against 3rd-ranked Toronto.  This performance netted them 28 rating points, moving them up to 1492, just a little short of an average rating.  They did see their chances of making the playoffs jump from 32% to 47%.

This week’s worst performer was Montreal.  The lowly Canadiens lost all 4 of this week’s game dropping their rating down below the “pretty crappy” mark of 1400 to 1385, a 24 point drop in the week.  They were our first team this season to not make the playoffs in our set of 100,00 season simulations.  From advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals last year down to last in the league this year is pretty disappointing.  Who knows what a difference having Carey Price this year would have been?  Apparently, it would have been a big difference.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1612, ▲10)

Record: 32-8-3, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 38% (▲9)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 15% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• January 24: Won 2-0 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1448)
• January 26: Won in OT 4-3 vs. Boston Bruins (9th, 1554)
• January 28: Won 6-4 @ Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1448)
• January 30: Won 4-1 vs. Buffalo Sabres (28th, 1419)

Next week:

• February 1: vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1395)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1592, ▲3)

Record: 31-9-2, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 22% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)

Last week: 4-0-0

• January 25: Won in OT 4-3 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1538)
• January 27: Won in SO 3-2 @ Ottawa Senators (23th, 1455)
• January 29: Won 2-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (30th, 1413)
• January 30: Won 2-1 vs. San Jose Sharks (22th, 1462)

Next week:

• No games scheduled (All-Star Break)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1584, ▲2)

Record: 27-10-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 2-0-0

• January 26: Won in SO 4-3 vs. Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1492)
• January 29: Won 7-4 @ Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1435)

Next week:

• January 31: vs. New Jersey Devils (30th, 1413)
• February 1: @ New Jersey Devils (30th, 1413)

4. Florida Panthers ▲2 (1577, ▲10)

Record: 31-9-5, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• January 25: Won 5-3 @ Winnipeg Jets (18th, 1495)
• January 27: Won 4-1 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1538)
• January 29: Won in OT 5-4 vs. San Jose Sharks (22th, 1462)

Next week:

• January 31: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (25th, 1444)
• February 1: @ New York Rangers (8th, 1559)

5. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲3 (1568, ▲3)

Record: 29-10-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 1-0-1

• January 27: Won 3-2 vs. New Jersey Devils (30th, 1413)
• January 29: Lost in SO 3-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1538)

Next week:

• February 1: vs. San Jose Sharks (22th, 1462)

• No games scheduled (All Star Break)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1612 (▲10)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1592 (▲3)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           1584 (▲2)
 4       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1577 (▲10)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      1568 (▲3)
 6       Minnesota Wild (▲4)           1565 (▲20)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      1564 (▼15)
 8       New York Rangers (▼3)         1559 (▼17)
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            1554 (▼11)
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2)          1554 (▼12)
11       Nashville Predators (▲1)      1542 (▲6)
12       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     1538 (▲6)
13       Washington Capitals (▼2)      1531 (▼11)
14       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1522 (▲19)
15       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1517 (▲8)
16       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1504 (▲6)
17       Dallas Stars (▲2)             1499 (▲14)
18       Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            1495 (▼6)
19       Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1492 (▲28)
20       Vancouver Canucks             1486 (▲10)
21       New York Islanders (▼3)       1484 (▼10)
22       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          1462 (▲9)
23       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1455
24       Chicago Blackhawks            1448 (▼1)
25       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1444 (▲10)
26       Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1435 (▼9)
27       Philadelphia Flyers           1420 (▼11)
28 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1419 (▼1)
28 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           1419 (▼6)
30       New Jersey Devils (▼2)        1413 (▼14)
31       Arizona Coyotes               1395 (▼16)
32       Montreal Canadiens            1385 (▼24)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           70% (▲23)
 2       New York Rangers              15% (▼10)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           13% (▼10)
 4       Washington Capitals           3% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              46% (▲11)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           30%
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           21% (▼4)
 4       Boston Bruins                 3% (▼7)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            77% (▲9)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           16% (▲3)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          4% (▼10)
 4       Nashville Predators           3% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          36% (▼4)
 2       Calgary Flames                26%
 3       Los Angeles Kings             16% (▲2)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               11% (▲1)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 8% (▲4)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               2% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        2%
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           >99% (▲1)
 2 (tie) New York Rangers              98%
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           98%
 4       Washington Capitals           90%
 5       New York Islanders            12% (▼4)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets         5% (▲2)
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      <1%

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              >99% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      >99% (▲2)
 4       Boston Bruins                 93% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             2% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          2%
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           98% (▲4)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          93% (▼4)
 4       Nashville Predators           90%
 5       Dallas Stars                  46% (▲6)
 6       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            25% (▼15)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            2% (▼2)
 8       Arizona Coyotes               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          82% (▼1)
 2       Calgary Flames                72% (▲1)
 3       Los Angeles Kings             63% (▲5)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               50% (▲3)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 47% (▲15)
 6       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        17% (▼4)
 7       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          16% (▼6)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            38% (▲9)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           22% (▲4)
 3       Florida Panthers              15% (▲3)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs           9% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           5% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           5% (▼3)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1)         1% (▼5)
 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      1% (▼5)
 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            15% (▲2)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           11% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         8% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8%
 5       Minnesota Wild (▲5)           7% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      6% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      6%
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins                 5% (▼1)
 8 (tie) New York Rangers (▼3)         5% (▼2)
 8 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼3)          5% (▼2)
11 (tie) Nashville Predators           4%
11 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          4%
13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           3%
13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        3% (▲1)
13 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2)      3% (▼1)
16       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          2%
17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
17 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             1%
17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1%
21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          <1%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           <1%
21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       <1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    <1%
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
21 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       <1%
21 (tie) New York Islanders (▼4)       <1% (▼1)
21 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%
21 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      <1%
21 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼4)          <1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           <1%

 

It turns out that it’s very hard to get coverage of hockey when you’re on a cruise ship in the Caribbean!  And, the internet on this ship is pretty bad, so I can’t VPN back home to watch any games.  So, I’ve been hockey-less for a little over a week now.  But, I am able to watch the Under-19 Men’s Cricket World Cup on ESPN!  Unfortunately, that’s small consolation.

But, I did get to watch NFL football this weekend!  What a great set of games!  This may have been the best weekend of NFL games in history.  3 games ended with 3 point differences, and the one that didn’t went into overtime, in what may have been the greatest football game I have ever seen!  None of my teams are still in it (none even made the playoffs), but I am cheering for Kansas City a bit, as Patrick Mahomes’ dad used to play for the Mets, and he’s one of the coaches at Fantasy Camp.  He hasn’t been at any of the camps I’ve been to, but I hope to meet him some day!

Speaking of baseball, on Sunday I noticed quite a few people on the cruise ship wearing Cardinals jerseys, T-shirts, and caps.  Like, a lot.  So, I wondered what was up, and I googled “St. Louis Cardinals cruise”, and it turns out that there’s a Cardinals cruise every year, and it’s going on on this boat!  There are four Cardinals alumni on the ship: John Tudor, Ray Lankford, Brian Jordan, and Danny Cox.  I’m not a huge Cardinals fan, but I’d probably recognize John Tudor if I ran into him.  Anyways, more information is available at https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/fans/cardinals-cruise.

But, on to hockey!  The NHL has released the updated schedule, and games are going on as usual now.  With players no longer going to the Olympics, the league is playing through their original break, and will still finish the schedule by the original end date, April 29th.  We are almost halfway through the regular season, so let’s hope COVID stays away enough to get the season done.

As seems to be the usual case lately, there’s been little change to the top 5 teams in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings again this week.  Colorado remains on top, followed closely by Carolina and Toronto.  Pittsburgh returns to the top 5, pushing Florida out, but the New York Rangers remain in the top 5.

Colorado had a 4-0-0 week, with two wins in regulation, one in overtime, and one in a shootout.  They are back over the 1600 rating point line, weighing in now at 1602 points, up 5 from last week.  In our simulations, they make the playoffs over 99% of the time, so it looks like they’re pretty much a shoe-in for the playoffs.  They are also our favourites to win the President’s Trophy, up 11% to 29% this week, and our top pick for the Stanley Cup, up 1% to 13%.

Carolina went 2-1-0 this week, picking up 4 rating points to sit at 1589.  Although they are currently 3rd in the Metropolitan Division, we’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 18% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 10% chance of winning the Cup.

Toronto had a quiet week, with only two games, both in New York.  They lost to the 5th-ranked Rangers, but beat the 18th-ranked Islanders.  Despite splitting games against lower-ranked teams, because they were road games, we didn’t feel it was necessary to change their rating one way or the other.  They’ve got another quiet week coming up, with only 2 games on the schedule.

Pittsburgh had a good week, going 4-0-0, with 3 regulation wins and 1 shootout win.  This was good enough for them to pick up 15 rating points, pushing them back into the top 5, currently ranked 4th.  They are 2nd in the Metropolitan Division, with a 98% chance of making the playoffs.

Rounding out the top 5 are the New York Rangers, who sit in 1st in the Metropolitan Division.  They went 2-1-0 this week, beating 3rd-ranked Toronto but losing to 2nd-ranked Carolina, and they finished up the week with an easy 7-3 victory over 31st-ranked Arizona.

That Metropolitan Division is looking like a tough division, with 3 of our top 5 teams coming from there.  The Rangers, ranked 5th, are in 1st place in the division, with 58 points in 42 games; 4th-ranked Pittsburgh is in 2nd place, with 57 points in 41 games; and 2nd-ranked Carolina is in 3rd, with 56 points in 38 games.  It should be an interesting division for the rest of the season!

Florida had a bad week.  They were ranked 4th last week, but after going 2-2-0 this week with one of their wins coming in a shootout, they dropped 12 rating points down to 6th in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  They are still 1st in the Atlantic Division, and have a 99% chance of making the playoffs, but need to be playing better.

One of the standards I use for telling how good a team is doing is the 90% rule; if a team has a 90% chance of making the playoffs, I expect them to be pretty much in.  Right now, there are 8 teams in the Eastern Conference at or above that 90% mark, so it looks like the playoff teams are set in the East, despite the season not being quite half over!  The teams are:

 Carolina Hurricanes           99%
 Florida Panthers              99%
 Tampa Bay Lightning           99%
 New York Rangers              98%
 Pittsburgh Penguins           98%
 Toronto Maple Leafs           98%
 Boston Bruins                 94%
 Washington Capitals           90%

It’s a little different in the Western Conference.  In the Central Division, four teams are above that 90% mark, but there are none in the Pacific Division.  Those four shoe-in teams are:

 Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 St. Louis Blues               97%
 Minnesota Wild                94%
 Nashville Predators           90%

Besides these four, there are 9 teams battling it out for the remaining four playoff spots:

 Vegas Golden Knights          83%
 Calgary Flames                71%
 Los Angeles Kings             58%
 Edmonton Oilers               47%
 Dallas Stars                  40%
 Winnipeg Jets                 40%
 Anaheim Ducks                 32%
 San Jose Sharks               22%
 Vancouver Canucks             21%

Realistically, I don’t think Chicago (4% chance of making the playoffs), Arizona (<1%), and Seattle (also <1%) have any chance at all.  I’ll be keeping an eye on all these playoff races, even though it’s only almost halfway through the season.

The big movers this week were St. Louis (up) and Philadelphia (down).  St. Louis went 3-0-0, with two of those wins coming on the road.  They have been quietly moving up the rankings, and we’ve now got them ranked 7th, up 3 spots from last week.  They also picked up 20 rating points, and now sit with 1566 McDonald NHL Power Ratings points.  We’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 3% chance of winning the President’s Trophy (up from 1% last week), and a 7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup (up from 5%).

It was a bad week for Philadelphia, as they went 0-3-1.  They lost twice to the 18th-ranked Islanders, once in overtime, and also lost to 26th-ranked Columbus and 30th-ranked Buffalo.  With this week’s poor performance, they lost 22 rating points and now sit in 27th spot in our rankings.  We’re now giving them less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs.

I hate ending this report on a sad note, but I will.  Clark Gillies, a key member of the early 1980s Islanders teams that won 4 straight Stanley Cups, died this week at 67.  He was born in Moose Jaw and played junior hockey for the Regina Pats.  Former teammates and regular people who met him were universal in their praise for him.  I was an Islanders fan back then, and it’s always sad to hear of the loss of someone you cheered for.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1602, ▲5)

Record: 28-8-3, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 29% (▲11)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▲1)

Last week: 4-0-0

• January 17: Won in SO 4-3 vs. Minnesota Wild (10th, 1545)
• January 19: Won 2-0 @ Anaheim Ducks (21th, 1464)
• January 20: Won 4-1 @ Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1503)
• January 22: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (32th, 1409)

Next week:

• January 24: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1449)
• January 26: vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1565)
• January 28: @ Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1449)
• January 30: vs. Buffalo Sabres (30th, 1420)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1589, ▲4)

Record: 27-9-2, 3rd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 18%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• January 18: Won 7-1 @ Boston Bruins (8th, 1565)
• January 21: Won 6-3 vs. New York Rangers (5th, 1576)
• January 22: Lost 7-4 @ New Jersey Devils (28th, 1427)

Next week:

• January 25: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1532)
• January 27: @ Ottawa Senators (22th, 1455)
• January 29: vs. New Jersey Devils (28th, 1427)
• January 30: vs. San Jose Sharks (23th, 1453)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1582)

Record: 25-10-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 1-1-0

• January 19: Lost 6-3 @ New York Rangers (5th, 1576)
• January 22: Won 3-1 @ New York Islanders (18th, 1494)

Next week:

• January 26: vs. Anaheim Ducks (21th, 1464)
• January 29: @ Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1444)

4. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲2 (1579, ▲15)

Record: 26-10-5, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• January 17: Won 5-3 @ Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1532)
• January 20: Won 6-4 vs. Ottawa Senators (22th, 1455)
• January 21: Won 5-2 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1434)
• January 23: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1501)

Next week:

• January 25: vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1411)
• January 27: vs. Seattle Kraken (29th, 1425)
• January 28: vs. Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1444)
• January 30: vs. Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1503)

5. New York Rangers (1576, ▲5)

Record: 27-11-4, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 2-1-0

• January 19: Won 6-3 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1582)
• January 21: Lost 6-3 @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1589)
• January 22: Won 7-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1411)

Next week:

• January 24: vs. Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1503)
• January 27: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1434)
• January 28: vs. Minnesota Wild (10th, 1545)
• January 30: vs. Seattle Kraken (29th, 1425)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1602 (▲5)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1589 (▲4)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           1582
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1579 (▲15)
 5       New York Rangers              1576 (▲5)
 6       Florida Panthers (▼2)         1567 (▼12)
 7       St. Louis Blues (▲3)          1566 (▲20)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            1565 (▲4)
 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1565 (▲4)
10       Minnesota Wild (▲3)           1545 (▲5)
11       Washington Capitals (▼2)      1542 (▼12)
12       Nashville Predators           1536 (▼6)
13       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     1532 (▼11)
14       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1509 (▲1)
15       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1503 (▼14)
16       Winnipeg Jets                 1501 (▼6)
17       Edmonton Oilers               1498
18       New York Islanders            1494 (▲4)
19       Dallas Stars                  1485 (▼3)
20       Vancouver Canucks             1476 (▲4)
21       Anaheim Ducks                 1464 (▲3)
22       Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1455 (▼2)
23       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1453 (▼6)
24       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1449 (▼3)
25       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1444 (▼5)
26       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1434 (▼5)
27       Philadelphia Flyers (▼3)      1431 (▼22)
28       New Jersey Devils             1427 (▼6)
29       Seattle Kraken                1425 (▲12)
30       Buffalo Sabres                1420 (▲9)
31       Arizona Coyotes               1411 (▲6)
32       Montreal Canadiens            1409 (▲12)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           47% (▼2)
 2       New York Rangers              25% (▼2)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           23% (▲9)
 4       Washington Capitals           6% (▼4)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              35% (▼9)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           30% (▲2)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           25% (▲5)
 4       Boston Bruins                 10% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            68% (▲8)
 2       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          14% (▲3)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           13% (▼2)
 4       Nashville Predators (▼1)      5% (▼7)
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          <1%
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       <1%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             <1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1% (▼2)

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          40%
 2       Calgary Flames                26% (▲4)
 3       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        14% (▼8)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               10% (▲2)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 4% (▲1)
 6       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          3%
 7       Vancouver Canucks             2%
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           99%
 2 (tie) New York Rangers              98% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      98% (▲6)
 4       Washington Capitals           90%
 5       New York Islanders            16% (▲1)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets         3% (▼2)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1% (▼1)
 8       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      <1% (▼3)

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      99% (▲1)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      98%
 4       Boston Bruins                 94% (▲3)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             3% (▼2)
 6       Ottawa Senators               2% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99% (▲1)
 2       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          97% (▲8)
 3       Minnesota Wild                94% (▲5)
 4       Nashville Predators (▼2)      90%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             40% (▲3)
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 40% (▼10)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            4% (▼2)
 8       Arizona Coyotes               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          83% (▼2)
 2       Calgary Flames (▲1)           71% (▲3)
 3       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        58% (▼13)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               47% (▲3)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 32% (▲5)
 6       San Jose Sharks               22% (▼4)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             21% (▲3)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       29% (▲11)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           18%
 3       Florida Panthers (▼2)         12% (▼10)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs           10% (▼3)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8%
 6 (tie) New York Rangers              6% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      6% (▲3)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            3%
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           3%
 8 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4)          3% (▲2)
11 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      1% (▼1)
11 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            13% (▲1)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           10% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      8% (▲2)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8%
 5 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2)         7% (▼1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              7%
 5 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4)          7% (▲2)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            6%
 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      6%
10       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           5%
11 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼2)      4% (▼1)
11 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     4% (▼1)
11 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2)      4% (▼1)
14       Calgary Flames                3%
15 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          2%
15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1%
17 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             1%
17 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       1%
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          1%
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1%
17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
23 (tie) Seattle Kraken                <1%

 

There was a slight bit of movement in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings this week, but not much.  Colorado remains in top spot, but Carolina dropped from a tie for 1st down into 2nd.  Toronto remains in third, and Florida has entered the top 5 in fourth spot.  Florida pushed the Rangers down to 5th, and forced Pittsburgh back out of the top 5, who are now at 6th.

Despite being ranked at the top of our ratings for much of the season, Colorado hasn’t been in first place in the Central Division, until now.  They’ve finally taken over 1st, and remain our highest ranked team.  They went 3-0-1 this week, but only gained 5 rating points, as their victories came against Seattle, ranked 29th, and two against Arizona, ranked 31st.  Their only game against a top-half club came in a 5-4 overtime loss to 12th ranked Nashville.  But, we’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 18% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and they are our favourite to win the Stanley Cup, at 12%.

Carolina dropped down to second in our rankings, after going 1-1-0 this week.  They got thumped by 27th-ranked Columbus, 6-0, but came back with a 4-1 win over 20th-ranked Vancouver.  Their game against Philadelphia was postponed due to COVID.  Despite their uneven week, we’re still giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs.

Toronto remains 3rd in our rankings.  They had two wins against tough teams this week, beating 11th-ranked Vegas in a shootout and 10th-ranked St. Louis in a high-scoring 6-5 game.  But, then they lost 2-1 to lowly Arizona (31st).  We’ve calculated that they have a 98% chance of making the playoffs.  Our models calculate that they have an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, but our team of experts has overruled our model and determined that they have a 0% chance, due to the Harold Ballard curse.  We don’t think they’ll win the Stanley Cup until they exhume Ballard’s body and rebury it in some corner in Sweden, with a pocketful of unbroken eggs.  But, that won’t ever happen, because Sweden doesn’t deserve that!

Florida, 1st in the Atlantic Division, moved into our Top 5 after a very strong week, going 3-0 and outscoring their opposition by a combined 21-5.  Their wins came against 20th-ranked Vancouver (5-2), 19th-ranked Dallas (7-1), and 27th-ranked Columbus (9-2).  They have a 99% chance of making the playoffs, and are now our favourites to win the President’s Trophy, with our models showing them winning that in 22% of our simulations, up from 13% last week!

Rounding out the top 5 this week are the New York Rangers.  They lead the Metropolitan Division, and had a 2-1-0 record on the road this week, losing to 14th-ranked Los Angeles before defeating San Jose (22nd) and Philadelphia (24th).  They have a tough week coming up, facing top 5 teams Toronto and Carolina, then facing 31st-ranked giant killers Arizona.

The top upward-movers this week were Los Angeles and Ottawa.  Los Angeles went 3-0-0 this week, gaining 22 rating points and moving up 3 spots in our rankings to 14th.  They beat the 5th-ranked Rangers and 6th-ranked Pittsburgh at home before travelling to Seattle to beat the 29th-ranked Kraken.  Ottawa only had two games this week, both on the road, and they beat 15th-ranked Edmonton and 17th-ranked Calgary.  But, this was enough to gain them 20 McDonald NHL Power Ratings rating points, and moved them up the ladder from 28th to 23rd.  But, we’re still only giving them a 3% chance of making the playoffs, up from 2% last week, so they’ve got a lot more winning to do before the season is done!

The big downward-movers this week were Seattle and Anaheim.  The Kraken lost all 4 of their games this week, and dropped 19 rating points.  They still remain ranked 29th overall, though.  Anaheim lost all 3 of their games, and our simulations now show them only having a 27% chance of making the playoffs, down from 47% last week!

On a side note, I just took a look at the schedule.  There are currently 98 games that have been postponed and need to be rescheduled.  The earliest postponed game was originally scheduled for November 18th, and the latest is January 18th.  Those schedule makers better get busy and get things updated if we’re going to have a full season of hockey!  The Leafs are probably starting to get itchy for their golf tee times!

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1597, ▲5)

Record: 24-8-3, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 18% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-1

• January 10: Won 4-3 vs. Seattle Kraken (29th, 1413)
• January 11: Lost in OT 5-4 @ Nashville Predators (12th, 1542)
• January 14: Won in SO 4-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1405)
• January 15: Won 5-0 @ Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1405)

Next week:

• January 17: vs. Minnesota Wild (13th, 1540)
• January 19: @ Anaheim Ducks (21th, 1461)
• January 20: @ Los Angeles Kings (14th, 1517)
• January 22: vs. Montreal Canadiens (32th, 1397)

2. Carolina Hurricanes ▼1 (1585, ▼7)

Record: 25-8-2, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 18% (▼8)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)

Last week: 1-1-0

• January 11: Postponed @ Philadelphia Flyers (24th, 1453)
• January 13: Lost 6-0 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1439)
• January 15: Won 4-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (20th, 1472)

Next week:

• January 18: @ Boston Bruins (7th, 1561)
• January 21: vs. New York Rangers (5th, 1571)
• January 22: @ New Jersey Devils (28th, 1433)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1582, ▼2)

Record: 24-9-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• January 11: Won in SO 4-3 @ Vegas Golden Knights (11th, 1543)
• January 12: Lost 2-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1405)
• January 15: Won 6-5 @ St. Louis Blues (10th, 1546)

Next week:

• January 17: Postponed vs. New Jersey Devils (28th, 1433)
• January 19: @ New York Rangers (5th, 1571)
• January 22: @ New York Islanders (18th, 1490)

4. Florida Panthers ▲3 (1579, ▲14)

Record: 26-7-5, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 22% (▲9)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• January 11: Won 5-2 vs. Vancouver Canucks (20th, 1472)
• January 14: Won 7-1 vs. Dallas Stars (19th, 1488)
• January 15: Won 9-2 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1439)

Next week:

• January 18: @ Calgary Flames (15th, 1508)
• January 20: @ Edmonton Oilers (17th, 1498)
• January 21: @ Vancouver Canucks (20th, 1472)
• January 23: @ Seattle Kraken (29th, 1413)

5. New York Rangers ▼1 (1571, ▲4)

Record: 25-10-4, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 97% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• January 10: Lost 3-1 @ Los Angeles Kings (14th, 1517)
• January 13: Won 3-0 @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1459)
• January 15: Won 3-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (24th, 1453)

Next week:

• January 19: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1582)
• January 21: @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1585)
• January 22: vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1405)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1597 (▲5)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      1585 (▼7)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           1582 (▼2)
 4       Florida Panthers (▲3)         1579 (▲14)
 5       New York Rangers (▼1)         1571 (▲4)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      1564 (▼3)
 7 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲4)            1561 (▲17)
 7 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      1561 (▲16)
 9       Washington Capitals (▼3)      1554 (▼12)
10       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1546 (▼4)
11       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     1543
12       Nashville Predators (▼4)      1542 (▼10)
13       Minnesota Wild                1540 (▲5)
14       Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        1517 (▲22)
15       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1508 (▼10)
16       Winnipeg Jets                 1507 (▲7)
17       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1498 (▼10)
18       New York Islanders (▲1)       1490 (▼1)
19       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1488 (▼5)
20       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1472 (▼4)
21       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            1461 (▼18)
22       San Jose Sharks               1459 (▼6)
23       Ottawa Senators (▲5)          1457 (▲20)
24       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1453 (▼11)
25       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1452 (▲13)
26       Detroit Red Wings (▼2)        1449
27       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    1439 (▼1)
28       New Jersey Devils (▼2)        1433 (▼6)
29       Seattle Kraken                1413 (▼19)
30       Buffalo Sabres                1411 (▼1)
31       Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          1405 (▲10)
32       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       1397 (▼2)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           49% (▼3)
 2       New York Rangers              27% (▲5)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      14% (▲2)
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      10% (▼4)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers (▲1)         44% (▲6)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      28% (▼11)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           20% (▲3)
 4       Boston Bruins                 8% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            60% (▲10)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲2)           15% (▲2)
 3       Nashville Predators (▼1)      12% (▼7)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          11% (▼4)
 5       Winnipeg Jets                 2% (▲1)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1%
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          40% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Calgary Flames                22% (▼6)
 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        22% (▲14)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          8% (▼4)
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            3% (▼6)
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          3% (▼1)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             2% (▼1)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           99%
 2       New York Rangers              97% (▲1)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      92%
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      90% (▼4)
 5       New York Islanders            15% (▼4)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets         5% (▼4)
 7       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      3% (▼6)
 8       New Jersey Devils             2% (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              99% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      98% (▲4)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      98%
 4       Boston Bruins                 91% (▲12)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             5% (▼3)
 6       Ottawa Senators               3% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            99% (▲2)
 2       Nashville Predators           90% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           89% (▲4)
 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues               89%
 5       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            50% (▲9)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼1)             37% (▼5)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            6% (▲3)
 8       Arizona Coyotes               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          85% (▲2)
 2       Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        71% (▲27)
 3       Calgary Flames (▼1)           68% (▼6)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          44% (▼8)
 5       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            27% (▼20)
 6       San Jose Sharks               26% (▼1)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             18% (▼5)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1% (▼1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Florida Panthers (▲3)         22% (▲9)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      18% (▼8)
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            18% (▲3)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      13% (▼1)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      8% (▲4)
 6       New York Rangers (▼1)         7%
 7 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲5)            3% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           3% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           3% (▼1)
10 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      2% (▼1)
10 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼4)      2% (▼3)
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2)          1% (▼1)
12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            12% (▲1)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           9% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         8% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8% (▼1)
 5       New York Rangers              7% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲6)            6% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      6%
 6 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      6% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           5% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼4)      5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues               5%
 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          5%
 9 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼4)      5% (▼1)
14 (tie) Calgary Flames                3%
14 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        3% (▲1)
16 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          2%
16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            2%
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
18 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
18 (tie) New York Islanders            1%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             1%
23 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
23 (tie) Seattle Kraken                <1%

 

It was another interesting week in the NHL, with a number of games being postponed due to COVID, mostly affecting games in Canada.  With the hospitals overflowing in Ontario and British Columbia, the provincial governments have put gathering restrictions in place, limiting attendance at hockey games to 50% of capacity.  Needing the ticket revenue, the NHL has postponed most of those games, hoping to reschedule those games when the restrictions have ended.  But, they’re running out of schedule to fit those games in, so we may be seeing games back in Canada soon.  Interestingly enough, Winnipeg was talking about moving some of their games to Saskatoon, where there are no capacity restrictions in place, but have decided to stay in Winnipeg.

As a result of the game postponements, there were no Hockey Night In Canada games in Canada on Saturday night!  There were four scheduled, two early games and two late games, but none of them went ahead.  Unfortunately, I had other plans that night, so I didn’t get a chance to see which games CBC showed instead.

There wasn’t a lot of movement in the Top 5 teams this week.  Colorado continues to be our top-ranked team, although they now share that spot with Carolina.  Colorado won all three of their games this week, although two of those games were in overtime.  Although they are in 3rd spot in the Central Division, and I don’t know when, if ever, they were in first this year, they are only 4 points behind first-place Nashville and 3 points behind St. Louis, but they do have 5 games in hand, as they’ve only played 31 games and the top two teams have each played 36.

Carolina has moved into a tie for the top spot in our rankings, despite going 1-0-1 this week, with one postponed game.  They are our most-likely team to make the playoffs, as we’re giving them a 99% chance, and our top contender for the President’s Trophy, at 26%.

Toronto remains in 3rd spot after going 1-0-1, with two postponed games.  They beat 15th-ranked Edmonton at home, then lost to top-ranked Colorado in overtime.  Our models give them a 98% chance of making the playoffs and a 9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, but anyone who follows hockey knows that their Stanley Cup chances are 0%, thanks to the Curse of Harold Ballard!  Their strong showing so far this season is just setting their fans up to break their hearts, something I know about well, being a Roughrider fan!

The Rangers moved into the top 5 this week, up from 6th to 4th, in a tie with Pittsburgh in our rankings.  They went 2-1-0 this week, and picked up 6 McDonald NHL Power Rating points in the process.  Pittsburgh, meanwhile, moved up a spot from 5th to 4th, also going 2-1-0.  They pushed Washington out of the top 5, down to 6th, as they went 0-1-1 with a postponed game.

One of the measures I use to determine whether a team is likely to make the playoffs is the 90% rule — if our models give them at least a 90% chance of making the playoffs, they are pretty much guaranteed to make it.  Of course, that means there’s still a 1 in 10 chance of them not making it, and with 16 playoff spots, 1 or 2 teams that have a 90% chance won’t make it, but it does give a pretty good indication.  Using the 90% rule, there are currently 7 teams in the Eastern Conference that are almost shoe-ins for the playoffs, despite the season not being half over yet:

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           99%
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers              98%
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           98%
 4       New York Rangers              96%
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals           94%
 5 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           94%
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins           92%

The next two teams are Boston, with a 79% chance of making the playoffs, and the Islanders, with a 19% chance.

Meanwhile, things aren’t so clear-cut in the Western Conference, as the only two teams currently above the 90% line are Colorado (97%) and Nashville (91%).

Nashville?  91%?  Really???  Yes! They had a 3-0-0 week, which earned them 21 McDonald NHL Power Rating points, and moved them up 5 spots in our rankings to 8th.  It also put them in top spot in the Central Division, one point ahead of St. Louis.  They have now won their last 4 games, so they are looking strong!

The worst performing team this week was Calgary, who dropped 17 rating points after losing all three of their games this week.  That poor showing moved them down 2 spots in our rankings to 14th.  In Calgary’s defense, all their games were on the road against strong teams: Florida (ranked 7th), Tampa Bay (10th), and Carolina (1st).  They did lose quite badly, though, being outscored on the week 16-6.

The top 5

1 (tie). Carolina Hurricanes ▲1 (1592, ▲4)

Record: 24-7-2, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 26%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10%

Last week: 1-0-1

• January 3: Postponed @ Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1584)
• January 7: Won 6-3 vs. Calgary Flames (14th, 1518)
• January 8: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Florida Panthers (7th, 1565)

Next week:

• January 11: @ Philadelphia Flyers (23th, 1464)
• January 13: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (25th, 1440)
• January 15: vs. Vancouver Canucks (21th, 1476)

1 (tie). Colorado Avalanche (1592, ▲2)

Record: 21-8-2, 3rd in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 97% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11%

Last week: 3-0-0

• January 4: Won in OT 4-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1439)
• January 6: Won 7-1 vs. Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1500)
• January 8: Won in OT 5-4 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1584)

Next week:

• January 10: vs. Seattle Kraken (29th, 1432)
• January 11: @ Nashville Predators (8th, 1552)
• January 14: vs. Arizona Coyotes (32th, 1395)
• January 15: @ Arizona Coyotes (32th, 1395)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1584, ▲6)

Record: 22-8-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 14% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)

Last week: 1-0-1

• January 3: Postponed vs. Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1592)
• January 5: Won 4-2 vs. Edmonton Oilers (15th, 1508)
• January 6: Postponed @ Montreal Canadiens (31th, 1399)
• January 8: Lost in OT 5-4 @ Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1592)

Next week:

• January 11: @ Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1543)
• January 12: @ Arizona Coyotes (32th, 1395)
• January 15: @ St. Louis Blues (9th, 1550)

4 (tie). New York Rangers ▲2 (1567, ▲6)

Record: 23-9-4, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 2-1-0

• January 3: Won 4-1 vs. Edmonton Oilers (15th, 1508)
• January 6: Lost 5-1 @ Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1543)
• January 8: Won 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (20th, 1479)

Next week:

• January 10: @ Los Angeles Kings (17th, 1495)
• January 13: @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1465)
• January 15: @ Philadelphia Flyers (23th, 1464)

4 (tie). Pittsburgh Penguins ▲1 (1567, ▲4)

Record: 20-9-5, 4th in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 92% (▲4)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 2-1-0

• January 5: Won 5-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (9th, 1550)
• January 6: Won 6-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (23th, 1464)
• January 8: Lost 3-2 @ Dallas Stars (18th, 1493)

Next week:

• January 11: @ Anaheim Ducks (20th, 1479)
• January 13: @ Los Angeles Kings (17th, 1495)
• January 15: @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1465)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1592 (▲4)
 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            1592 (▲2)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           1584 (▲6)
 4 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         1567 (▲6)
 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      1567 (▲4)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼2)      1566 (▼7)
 7       Florida Panthers              1565 (▲6)
 8       Nashville Predators (▲5)      1552 (▲21)
 9       St. Louis Blues               1550 (▲8)
10       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1545 (▲3)
11       Boston Bruins                 1544 (▲5)
12       Vegas Golden Knights (▼4)     1543 (▼13)
13       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           1535 (▲9)
14       Calgary Flames (▼2)           1518 (▼17)
15       Edmonton Oilers               1508 (▼11)
16       Winnipeg Jets                 1500 (▲1)
17       Los Angeles Kings             1495 (▼1)
18       Dallas Stars (▲1)             1493 (▲3)
19       New York Islanders (▼1)       1491
20       Anaheim Ducks                 1479 (▼1)
21       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1476
22       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          1465 (▲2)
23       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      1464 (▼14)
24       Detroit Red Wings             1449 (▲2)
25       Columbus Blue Jackets         1440 (▼6)
26 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       1439 (▲6)
26 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1439 (▼5)
28       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1437
29       Seattle Kraken                1432
30       Buffalo Sabres                1412 (▼7)
31       Montreal Canadiens            1399
32       Arizona Coyotes               1395 (▼3)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           52% (▲5)
 2       New York Rangers (▲1)         22% (▲3)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      14% (▼7)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           12%
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           39%
 2       Florida Panthers              38% (▲4)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           17% (▼2)
 4       Boston Bruins                 6% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            50%
 2       Nashville Predators (▲1)      19% (▲5)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          15% (▼3)
 4       Minnesota Wild                13%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          37%
 2       Calgary Flames (▼1)           28% (▼9)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               12% (▼1)
 4       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            9% (▲4)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        8% (▲2)
 6       San Jose Sharks               4% (▲2)
 7       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        3% (▲1)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           99% (▲1)
 2       New York Rangers (▲1)         96% (▲2)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      94% (▼1)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           92% (▲4)
 5       New York Islanders            19%
 6 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    9% (▼4)
 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           9% (▼9)
 8       New Jersey Devils             3% (▼3)

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              98% (▲2)
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           98% (▲2)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           94% (▲2)
 4       Boston Bruins                 79% (▲5)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             8% (▼1)
 6       Ottawa Senators               2%
 7       Buffalo Sabres                1%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            97% (▲2)
 2       Nashville Predators (▲1)      91% (▲11)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          89% (▲3)
 4       Minnesota Wild                85% (▲8)
 5       Dallas Stars (▲1)             42% (▲2)
 6       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            41% (▼3)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            3%
 8       Arizona Coyotes               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          83% (▼5)
 2       Calgary Flames                74% (▼12)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               52% (▼12)
 4       Anaheim Ducks                 47% (▲2)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        44% (▼1)
 6       San Jose Sharks               27% (▲3)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             23% (▲1)
 8       Seattle Kraken                1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           26%
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       15% (▲4)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      14% (▲1)
 4       Florida Panthers (▼1)         13% (▲2)
 5       New York Rangers (▲1)         7% (▼1)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼1)      5% (▼4)
 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      4%
 7 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4% (▼1)
 9       Nashville Predators (▲3)      3% (▲2)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           2% (▲1)
10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          2%
12 (tie) Boston Bruins                 1%
12 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼3)           1% (▼2)
12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)     1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            11%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           10%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9% (▲1)
 4       Florida Panthers (▲1)         7% (▲1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              6%
 5 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲7)      6% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           6%
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2)      6% (▼2)
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues               5%
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           5%
 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼4)     5% (▼1)
12 (tie) Boston Bruins                 4%
12 (tie) Minnesota Wild                4%
14       Calgary Flames (▼5)           3% (▼2)
15 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        2%
15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            2%
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
18 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
18 (tie) New York Islanders            1%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             1%
23 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          <1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼5)      <1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           <1%

 

Happy New Year!

It was another uncertain week in the NHL, with lots of games cancelled due to COVID.  There was also the Christmas break in there, which got extended due to COVID.  And, the NHL has announced that the NHL players won’t be taking part in the Olympics, so the Olympic break is no longer necessary.  We’re still waiting for the schedule makers to come up with the new schedule, and the NHL has given no information as to when that will be released.  With the COVID uncertainties, I can understand why that hasn’t happened yet!

With so few games played this week, there weren’t many big changes to the ratings.  The top 4 remain the same, with Colorado on top, just two rating points ahead of #2 Carolina.  Toronto is still ranked third, followed by Washington in fourth.  New to the top 5 this week is Pittsburgh, who moved up two spots to fifth.

The biggest upward mover this week was Florida, who gained 18 rating points, and moved up from 9th-ranked to 7th, based on their 3-0-0 record this week.  Luckily for them, their game against number 2 Carolina was postponed.  Their big win of the week was on Dec. 30th, when they blew out Tampa Bay 9-3.

The biggest downward mover was that same Tampa Bay team, who went 1-2-1 this week.  Their sole win this week came in overtime against 31st-ranked Montreal.

It’s hard to say what’s going to happen this week, with many more games expected to be postponed due to COVID.  We’ll just have to wait and see!

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1590, ▲5)

Record: 18-8-2, 4th in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 95% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 11%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)

Last week: 1-0-0

• December 27: Postponed @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1556)
• December 29: Postponed vs. Dallas Stars (19th, 1490)
• December 31: Postponed @ Dallas Stars (19th, 1490)
• January 2: Won 4-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (20th, 1480)

Next week:

• January 4: @ Chicago Blackhawks (28th, 1433)
• January 6: vs. Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1499)
• January 8: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1578)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1588, ▲9)

Record: 23-7-1, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 26% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

• December 27: Postponed vs. Florida Panthers (7th, 1559)
• December 30: Won 4-0 vs. Montreal Canadiens (31th, 1399)
• January 1: Won 7-4 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (25th, 1446)

Next week:

• January 3: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1578)
• January 7: vs. Calgary Flames (12th, 1535)
• January 8: vs. Florida Panthers (7th, 1559)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1578, ▲4)

Record: 21-8-2, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 1-0-0

• December 27: Postponed @ Columbus Blue Jackets (25th, 1446)
• December 29: Postponed vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (5th, 1563)
• January 1: Won 6-0 vs. Ottawa Senators (27th, 1437)

Next week:

• January 3: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1588)
• January 5: vs. Edmonton Oilers (15th, 1519)
• January 6: @ Montreal Canadiens (31th, 1399)
• January 8: @ Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1590)

4. Washington Capitals (1573, ▲9)

Record: 20-6-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 95% (▲3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

• December 27: Postponed vs. Ottawa Senators (27th, 1437)
• December 29: Won 5-3 vs. Nashville Predators (13th, 1531)
• December 31: Won 3-1 @ Detroit Red Wings (24th, 1447)
• January 2: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. New Jersey Devils (26th, 1444)

Next week:

• January 4: @ Montreal Canadiens (31th, 1399)
• January 7: @ St. Louis Blues (9th, 1542)
• January 8: @ Minnesota Wild (14th, 1526)

5. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲2 (1563, ▲5)

Record: 18-8-5, 4th in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 88% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 1-0-0

• December 27: Postponed @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1539)
• December 29: Postponed @ Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1578)
• December 31: Postponed @ Ottawa Senators (27th, 1437)
• January 2: Won 8-5 vs. San Jose Sharks (23th, 1463)

Next week:

• January 5: vs. St. Louis Blues (9th, 1542)
• January 6: @ Philadelphia Flyers (21th, 1478)
• January 8: @ Dallas Stars (19th, 1490)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1590 (▲5)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1588 (▲9)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           1578 (▲4)
 4       Washington Capitals           1573 (▲9)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1563 (▲5)
 6       New York Rangers              1561 (▲1)
 7       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1559 (▲18)
 8       Vegas Golden Knights          1556 (▲10)
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4)          1542 (▲15)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼4)      1542 (▼19)
11       Boston Bruins (▼1)            1539 (▲4)
12       Calgary Flames (▲3)           1535 (▲13)
13       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1531 (▼2)
14       Minnesota Wild (▼3)           1526 (▼8)
15       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1519 (▼8)
16       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            1499 (▲2)
17       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1496 (▼2)
18       New York Islanders (▲2)       1491 (▲5)
19       Dallas Stars                  1490
20       Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            1480 (▼11)
21       Philadelphia Flyers           1478 (▼5)
22       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1476 (▲10)
23       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1463 (▼8)
24       Detroit Red Wings             1447 (▼13)
25       Columbus Blue Jackets         1446 (▼5)
26       New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1444 (▲12)
27       Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1437 (▼4)
28       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1433 (▼11)
29       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           1432 (▼15)
30       Buffalo Sabres                1419 (▼10)
31       Montreal Canadiens            1399 (▼3)
32       Arizona Coyotes               1398 (▲2)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           47% (▲4)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      21% (▲1)
 3       New York Rangers (▼1)         19% (▼4)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           12% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      39% (▲3)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         34% (▲14)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      19% (▼19)
 4       Boston Bruins                 7% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            50% (▲5)
 2       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          18% (▲6)
 3       Nashville Predators           14% (▼3)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           13% (▼8)
 5       Winnipeg Jets                 3% (▲1)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼1)             2%
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           37% (▲10)
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          37% (▲7)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               13% (▼9)
 4       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        6%
 5       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            5% (▼7)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               2% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        2% (▲1)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           98% (▲1)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      95% (▲3)
 3       New York Rangers (▼1)         94% (▲1)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           88% (▲2)
 5       New York Islanders (▲2)       19% (▲4)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      18% (▼5)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    13% (▼4)
 8       New Jersey Devils             6% (▲3)

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         96% (▲7)
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           96%
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      92% (▼4)
 4       Boston Bruins                 74% (▲6)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             9% (▼11)
 6       Ottawa Senators               2% (▼1)
 7       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1% (▼2)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            95% (▲1)
 2       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          86% (▲10)
 3       Nashville Predators           80% (▼1)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           77% (▼7)
 5       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            44% (▲5)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼1)             40%
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            3% (▼3)
 8       Arizona Coyotes               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          88% (▲6)
 2       Calgary Flames                86% (▲9)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               64% (▼9)
 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 45% (▼14)
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        45% (▲1)
 6       San Jose Sharks               24% (▼1)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             22% (▲6)
 8       Seattle Kraken                1% (▼3)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           26% (▲5)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      13%
 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       11%
 3 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4)         11% (▲5)
 5       Washington Capitals (▲1)      9% (▲1)
 6       New York Rangers (▼1)         8% (▼1)
 7       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼5)      5% (▼9)
 8       Pittsburgh Penguins           4%
 9 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           3% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     3% (▲1)
11       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          2% (▲1)
12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            1%
12 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           1% (▼2)
12 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼3)      1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            11% (▲1)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           10% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8%
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      8% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4)         6% (▲1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         6%
 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      6%
 5 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     6%
 9 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           5% (▲1)
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2)          5% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼5)      5% (▼2)
12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            4%
12 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           4% (▼1)
12 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      4%
15       Edmonton Oilers (▼4)          3% (▼1)
16 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             2%
16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 2%
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             1% (▼1)
18 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       1%
18 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        1%
24 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          <1%
24 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
24 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
24 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
24 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4)        <1% (▼1)
24 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       <1%
24 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
24 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
24 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           <1%