Well, it finally happened — COVID hit the NHL this week. Ottawa had 10 players and one coach test positive this week, and as a result, all of their games were postponed. The virus didn’t spread to any other teams, so that’s a good thing. Also, all of the positive tests were in people who were fully vaccinated, so the chances of someone getting seriously ill are pretty low. But still, it just goes to show you that a 90% efficacy rate doesn’t mean 100% protection; this virus can spread like wildfire, even among fully vaccinated groups, so we all still need to be vigilant.
There was very little change among the top 5 this week. All 5 teams from last week are still the top 5 teams this week, with a minor reshuffling in the positions, as Edmonton dropped from 3rd to 5th, and as a result, Florida and Colorado both moved up a position, to 3rd and 4th, respectively.
Carolina continues to be our top-ranked team. They have a 14-2-0 record, and sit atop the Metropolitan Division. They went 3-0-0 this week on the road, and are looking unstoppable. We’re giving them a 96% chance of making the playoffs, even this early in the season, and they are our favourites to win both the President’s Trophy (30%!) and the Stanley Cup (11%). They have three more games on the road, then return home next Sunday to play a key game against #2 Washington.
Washington is in second spot in our rankings again this week, despite not having a very good week. They went 2-1-1 on a West Coast trip, with their overtime loss coming against Anaheim (19th) and their outright loss coming against lowly Seattle (31st!). They did have two shutouts, though, against Los Angeles (23rd) and San Jose (22nd). They have a tough week coming up, with their first game against 29th-ranked Montreal, but followed by games against 3rd-ranked Florida, then top-ranked Carolina.
Florida moved up a spot to 3rd in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings. They won all three of their games this week, and sit in top spot in the Atlantic Division. We’re giving them a 95% chance of making the playoffs. They’ll have a test this week when they play 2nd-ranked Washington on the road on Friday.
Colorado moved up one spot in the rankings, from 5th to 4th. They had a quiet and easy week, playing only two games, and those being wins against 30th-ranked Vancouver and 31st-ranked Seattle. They are ranked 4th in our Ratings, but are in 5th place in the Central Division with an 8-5-1 record. They were the top-ranked team at the end of the regular season last year, so we expect better of them, but they’ll need to improve their record to hold their ranking. We’re only giving them an 82% chance of making the playoffs, but that is up 10% from last week.
Rounding out the top 5 is Edmonton, who dropped from 3rd last week. They went 2-1-0 this week, losing in Winnipeg 5-2 then following it up with a 2-1 shootout win at home against those same 14th-ranked Jets. Their final game of the week was a 5-2 victory over 26th-ranked Chicago. We’re giving them a 91% chance of making the playoffs, but surprisingly, they are only in 2nd place in the Pacific Division!
Top spot in the Pacific Division belongs to Calgary, who had the biggest move in our rankings this week. They went 3-0-1 this week, with all four games being on the road. Two of their victories were shutouts! Based on this week’s performance, we’ve moved them up to 7th in our rankings, up from 14th, and awarded them 25 additional McDonald NHL Power Ratings ranking points.
The worst performer of the week was the New York Islanders. They lost all four of their games this week, and now are in last place in the Metropolitan Division with a 5-8-2 record. They did have a tough week, facing Tampa Bay (ranked 11th), Florida (3rd), Calgary (7th), and Toronto (6th). We’ve reduced their chances of making the playoffs, from 53% all the way down to 27%. We’ve reduced their rating by a whopping 29 points.
There’s good news for Canadian fans (but not Canadiens fans). 3 of the top 7 teams are from Canada, with Edmonton in 5th, Toronto in 6th, and Calgary in 7th. Sadly, Ottawa (27th), Montreal (29th) and Vancouver (30th) aren’t holding up their end. But the other Canadian team, Winnipeg, is in the top half, at 14th. Let’s keep hoping for a Canadian team to bring home our Stanley Cup!
The Top 5
1. Carolina Hurricanes (1593, ▲20)
Record: 14-2-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 96% (▲6)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 30% (▲11)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲3)
Last week: 3-0-0
- November 16: Won 4-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (9th, 1538)
- November 18: Won 2-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1484)
- November 20: Won 5-4 @ Los Angeles Kings (23th, 1470)
Next week:
- November 22: @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1475)
- November 24: @ Seattle Kraken (31th, 1432)
- November 26: @ Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1506)
- November 28: vs. Washington Capitals (2nd, 1573)
2. Washington Capitals (1573, ▲2)
Record: 11-3-5, 2nd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 87% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▼2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%
Last week: 2-1-1
- November 16: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1484)
- November 17: Won 2-0 @ Los Angeles Kings (23th, 1470)
- November 20: Won 4-0 @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1475)
- November 21: Lost 5-2 @ Seattle Kraken (31th, 1432)
Next week:
- November 24: vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1437)
- November 26: vs. Florida Panthers (3rd, 1572)
- November 28: @ Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1593)
3. Florida Panthers ▲1 (1572, ▲17)
Record: 13-2-3, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 95% (▲7)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 17% (▲5)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-0
- November 16: Won 6-1 vs. New York Islanders (18th, 1495)
- November 18: Won 4-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (20th, 1482)
- November 20: Won 5-4 vs. Minnesota Wild (12th, 1523)
Next week:
- November 24: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1506)
- November 26: @ Washington Capitals (2nd, 1573)
- November 27: vs. Seattle Kraken (31th, 1432)
4. Colorado Avalanche ▲1 (1558, ▲12)
Record: 8-5-1, 5th in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 82% (▲10)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-0
- November 17: Won 4-2 @ Vancouver Canucks (30th, 1436)
- November 19: Won 7-3 @ Seattle Kraken (31th, 1432)
Next week:
- November 22: vs. Ottawa Senators (27th, 1447)
- November 24: vs. Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1484)
- November 26: @ Dallas Stars (21th, 1477)
- November 27: vs. Nashville Predators (17th, 1498)
5. Edmonton Oilers ▼2 (1552, ▼4)
Record: 13-4-0, 2nd in Pacific Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 91% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▼3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%
Last week: 2-1-0
- November 16: Lost 5-2 @ Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1513)
- November 18: Won in SO 2-1 vs. Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1513)
- November 20: Won 5-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1451)
Next week:
- November 23: @ Dallas Stars (21th, 1477)
- November 24: @ Arizona Coyotes (32th, 1429)
- November 27: @ Vegas Golden Knights (9th, 1538)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Carolina Hurricanes 1593 (▲20) 2 Washington Capitals 1573 (▲2) 3 Florida Panthers (▲1) 1572 (▲17) 4 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 1558 (▲12) 5 Edmonton Oilers (▼2) 1552 (▼4) 6 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2) 1547 (▲12) 7 Calgary Flames (▲7) 1545 (▲25) 8 New York Rangers (▼1) 1540 (▲3) 9 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 1538 (▲3) 10 Boston Bruins (▼4) 1537 (▼1) 11 Tampa Bay Lightning 1525 (▼4) 12 Minnesota Wild (▼2) 1523 (▼8) 13 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲5) 1516 (▲6) 14 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2) 1513 (▼12) 14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2) 1513 (▲1) 16 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 1506 (▼9) 17 Nashville Predators (▼1) 1498 (▼14) 18 New York Islanders (▼5) 1495 (▼29) 19 Anaheim Ducks 1484 (▼5) 20 New Jersey Devils (▲2) 1482 (▲5) 21 Dallas Stars (▲3) 1477 (▲9) 22 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 1475 (▼3) 23 Los Angeles Kings (▼3) 1470 (▼15) 24 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 1461 (▲2) 25 Detroit Red Wings (▼2) 1454 (▼19) 26 Chicago Blackhawks (▲4) 1451 (▲11) 27 Ottawa Senators (▼1) 1447 28 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 1444 (▼2) 29 Montreal Canadiens 1437 (▼4) 30 Vancouver Canucks (▼2) 1436 (▼6) 31 Seattle Kraken 1432 (▼4) 32 Arizona Coyotes 1429 (▲13)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 56% (▲17) 2 Washington Capitals 22% (▼5) 3 New York Rangers 12% (▼2) 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 3% (▼3) 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 3% 6 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 2% 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 1% 7 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3) 1% (▼6)
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 53% (▲12) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 20% (▲1) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 13% (▼4) 4 Boston Bruins (▼1) 12% (▼5) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 1% 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings 1% (▼3) 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 7 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 32% (▲12) 2 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 21% (▼6) 3 Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 18% (▲2) 4 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 14% (▼5) 5 Nashville Predators 9% (▼6) 6 Dallas Stars 4% (▲1) 7 Chicago Blackhawks 1% 8 Arizona Coyotes <1%
Pacific Division
1 Edmonton Oilers 39% (▼5) 2 Calgary Flames 33% (▲15) 3 Vegas Golden Knights 16% (▼1) 4 Anaheim Ducks 7% (▼2) 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 3% (▼4) 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) 3% (▼2) 7 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) <1% 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% (▼1)
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 96% (▲6) 2 Washington Capitals 87% (▲2) 3 New York Rangers 76% (▲5) 4 Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 48% (▼4) 5 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 45% (▲7) 6 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 36% (▲4) 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 27% (▲3) 7 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3) 27% (▼26)
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 95% (▲7) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 81% (▲10) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 71% (▲3) 4 Boston Bruins (▼1) 69% (▲1) 5 Detroit Red Wings 16% (▼16) 6 Buffalo Sabres 14% (▼3) 7 Ottawa Senators 7% 8 Montreal Canadiens 3% (▼2)
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche (▲2) 82% (▲10) 2 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 74% (▼5) 3 Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 69% (▲1) 4 St. Louis Blues (▼2) 64% (▼9) 5 Nashville Predators 54% (▼12) 6 Dallas Stars 37% (▲8) 7 Chicago Blackhawks 15% (▲5) 8 Arizona Coyotes 4% (▲2)
Pacific Division
1 Edmonton Oilers 91% (▲2) 2 Calgary Flames 89% (▲16) 3 Vegas Golden Knights 76% (▲5) 4 Anaheim Ducks 57% 5 San Jose Sharks (▲1) 37% (▼3) 6 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 35% (▼14) 7 Vancouver Canucks 9% (▼4) 8 Seattle Kraken 7% (▼1)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Carolina Hurricanes 30% (▲11) 2 Florida Panthers 17% (▲5) 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 9% (▼3) 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) 9% (▼2) 5 Calgary Flames (▲4) 6% (▲3) 6 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3) 4% (▲1) 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1) 4% (▼1) 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 4% 9 Tampa Bay Lightning 3% 10 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3) 2% (▼2) 10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼5) 2% (▼3) 10 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 2% (▼1) 10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 2% (▼1) 14 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲4) 1% 14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1) 1% (▼1) 14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 1% (▼1) 14 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4) 1% 14 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼5) 1% (▼2)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Carolina Hurricanes 11% (▲3) 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2) 8% (▲2) 2 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) 8% 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche 7% (▲1) 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 7% 6 Calgary Flames (▲4) 6% (▲2) 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 5% 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 5% 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3) 4% (▼1) 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3) 4% (▼1) 9 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) 4% 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 4% 13 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼3) 3% (▼1) 13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼3) 3% (▼1) 15 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲3) 2% 15 (tie) Nashville Predators 2% (▼1) 15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers 2% (▼1) 15 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3) 2% 19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲8) 1% (▲1) 19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲3) 1% 19 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲3) 1% 19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲3) 1% 19 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 1% (▼1) 19 (tie) New York Islanders (▼4) 1% (▼2) 19 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3) 1% 19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1) 1% (▼1) 27 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 27 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼5) <1% (▼1) 27 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 27 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 27 (tie) Seattle Kraken <1% 27 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%