There was little movement in the top 5 in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings this week, with only one team moving in, and minor shuffling occurring. Carolina remains the top ranked team, Washington has moved up two spots to 2nd, leaving Edmonton in 3rd and pushing Florida to 4th. New to the top 5 this week is Colorado, as they re-enter at 5th, while St. Louis dropped out of the top 5, and fell all the way to 12th.
Colorado is currently sitting atop the Metropolitan Division with an 11-2-0 record. This week, they won twice (once in overtime) but lost a close 2-1 game to Philadelphia. Their rating has dropped slightly, but not enough to move them out of top spot.
Washington had a huge week this week, going 4-0-0, although all their wins were against teams in the bottom half of our rankings. They defeated Buffalo (27th), Detroit (23rd), Columbus (25th), and Pittsburgh (18th). Still, the four wins were good enough to give them a 25 point jump in our ratings, just two rating points behind Carolina. Washington trails Carolina in the Metropolitan Division; both have 22 points, but Washington has played two more games than Carolina, and Carolina has more wins (11 vs. 9). Washington has another four-game week this week, again against bottom-half teams: Anaheim (19th), Los Angeles (20th), San Jose (21st), and Seattle (31st).
Edmonton, leading the Pacific Division with a 11-3-0 record, had a middling week, with two wins and 2 losses. Surprisingly, they lost to two bottom-half teams: Detroit (23rd) and Buffalo (27th), but beat two top-half teams, Boston (6th) and St. Louis (12th). This performance left them unchanged at 3rd in our rankings, with a decrease of just 1 rating point.
Florida, ranked 2nd last week, went winless, with 2 losses and 2 overtime losses. Previously, they had only lost one game all year, an overtime loss! This performance dropped them 17 rating points in this week’s ratings, and moved them down to 4th spot. With their 10-2-3 record, they still lead the Atlantic Division, two points ahead of 8th-ranked Toronto.
Colorado, despite sporting a 6-5-1 record and currently sitting in 5th spot in the Central Division, moved into 5th overall in our rankings. They had a relatively easy week, beating Vancouver (ranked 28th) and San Jose (21st). They’ve got another easy week coming up, playing on the road against Vancouver and Seattle (31st).
The biggest upward-mover in our ratings this week was Washington, with that 4-0-0 week. Also having big weeks were Los Angeles and Vegas. Los Angeles went 3-0-1, including a big 5-1 win over 8th-ranked Toronto on the road. That week gained them 19 rating points, moving them up 4 spots in our rankings to 20th. Vegas went 3-0-0; that earned them 17 rating points, moving them up from 16th in our rankings all the way up to a tie for 8th with Toronto!
The biggest downward-movers were Seattle, Arizona, and previously-discussed Florida. Expansion team Seattle lost all 3 of their games this week, losing 20 rating points and moving them from a 28th ranking down to 31st. We’re now giving them only an 8% chance of making the playoffs. Arizona also had an 0-3-0 week, losing 18 rating points. This has moved them down to last spot in our rankings. They currently have a 1-13-1 record, and we’re only giving them a 2% chance of making the playoffs.
The Top 5
1. Carolina Hurricanes (1573, ▼4)
Record: 11-2-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 90% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 19% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- November 9: Won in OT 2-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (11th, 1529)
- November 12: Lost 2-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (15th, 1515)
- November 13: Won 3-2 vs. St. Louis Blues (12th, 1525)
Next week:
- November 16: @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1535)
- November 18: @ Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1489)
- November 20: @ Los Angeles Kings (20th, 1485)
2. Washington Capitals ▲2 (1571, ▲25)
Record: 9-2-4, 2nd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 85% (▲19)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▲7)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲3)
Last week: 4-0-0
- November 8: Won 5-3 vs. Buffalo Sabres (27th, 1446)
- November 11: Won 2-0 @ Detroit Red Wings (23th, 1473)
- November 12: Won 4-3 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (25th, 1459)
- November 14: Won 6-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1510)
Next week:
- November 16: @ Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1489)
- November 17: @ Los Angeles Kings (20th, 1485)
- November 20: @ San Jose Sharks (21st, 1478)
- November 21: @ Seattle Kraken (31st, 1436)
3. Edmonton Oilers (1556, ▼1)
Record: 11-3-0, 1st in Pacific Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 89% (▼2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 12% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼1)
Last week: 2-2-0
- November 9: Lost 4-2 @ Detroit Red Wings (23rd, 1473)
- November 11: Won 5-3 @ Boston Bruins (6th, 1538)
- November 12: Lost 3-2 @ Buffalo Sabres (27th, 1446)
- November 14: Won 5-4 @ St. Louis Blues (12th, 1525)
Next week:
- November 16: @ Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1512)
- November 18: vs. Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1512)
- November 20: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (30th, 1440)
4. Florida Panthers ▼2 (1555, ▼17)
Record: 10-2-3, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 88% (▼5)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 12% (▼10)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼3)
Last week: 0-2-2
- November 8: Lost 4-3 @ New York Rangers (7th, 1537)
- November 9: Lost 7-3 @ New Jersey Devils (22th, 1477)
- November 11: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1510)
- November 13: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (11th, 1529)
Next week:
- November 16: vs. New York Islanders (13th, 1524)
- November 18: vs. New Jersey Devils (22nd, 1477)
- November 20: vs. Minnesota Wild (10th, 1531)
5. Colorado Avalanche ▲1 (1546, ▲10)
Record: 6-5-1, 5th in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 72% (▲6)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-0
- November 11: Won 7-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (28th, 1442)
- November 13: Won 6-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (21st, 1478)
Next week:
- November 17: @ Vancouver Canucks (28th, 1442)
- November 19: @ Seattle Kraken (31st, 1436)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Carolina Hurricanes 1573 (▼4) 2 Washington Capitals (▲2) 1571 (▲25) 3 Edmonton Oilers 1556 (▼1) 4 Florida Panthers (▼2) 1555 (▼17) 5 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 1546 (▲10) 6 Boston Bruins (▲5) 1538 (▲10) 7 New York Rangers (▲7) 1537 (▲13) 8 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 1535 (▲4) 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲8) 1535 (▲17) 10 Minnesota Wild (▲2) 1531 (▲6) 11 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2) 1529 12 St. Louis Blues (▼7) 1525 (▼15) 13 New York Islanders (▼6) 1524 (▼8) 14 Calgary Flames (▼5) 1520 (▼9) 15 Philadelphia Flyers 1515 (▼6) 16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2) 1512 (▲14) 16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 1512 (▲5) 18 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6) 1510 (▼15) 19 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 1489 (▲14) 20 Los Angeles Kings (▲4) 1485 (▲19) 21 San Jose Sharks (▼2) 1478 (▼2) 22 New Jersey Devils (▲3) 1477 (▲12) 23 Detroit Red Wings (▼2) 1473 24 Dallas Stars (▼1) 1468 25 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4) 1459 (▼14) 26 Ottawa Senators 1447 (▼12) 27 Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 1446 (▼3) 28 Vancouver Canucks (▼1) 1442 (▼16) 29 Montreal Canadiens (▲1) 1441 (▲4) 30 Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) 1440 (▲8) 31 Seattle Kraken (▼3) 1436 (▼20) 32 Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 1416 (▼18)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 39% (▼4) 2 Washington Capitals 27% (▲13) 3 New York Rangers (▲2) 14% (▲5) 4 New York Islanders (▼1) 7% (▼4) 5 Philadelphia Flyers (▼2) 6% (▼5) 6 Pittsburgh Penguins 3% (▼4) 7 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 2% 8 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 1% (▼3)
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 41% (▼17) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 19% (▲6) 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1) 17% (▲6) 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 17% (▲4) 5 Detroit Red Wings 4% (▲1) 6 Buffalo Sabres 1% (▼1) 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) <1% 7 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% (▼1)
Central Division
1 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 27% (▲2) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 20% (▲5) 3 St. Louis Blues (▼2) 19% (▼14) 4 Winnipeg Jets 16% (▲2) 5 Nashville Predators 15% (▲6) 6 Dallas Stars 3% (▼1) 7 Chicago Blackhawks 1% (▲1) 8 Arizona Coyotes (▼1) <1%
Pacific Division
1 Edmonton Oilers 44% (▼3) 2 Calgary Flames 18% (▼8) 3 Vegas Golden Knights 17% (▲8) 4 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 9% (▲4) 5 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 7% (▲4) 6 San Jose Sharks (▼2) 5% (▼1) 7 Vancouver Canucks 1% (▼1) 8 Seattle Kraken <1% (▼1)
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 90% (▲1) 2 Washington Capitals 85% (▲19) 3 New York Rangers (▲2) 71% (▲13) 4 New York Islanders (▼1) 53% (▼7) 5 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 52% (▼7) 6 Pittsburgh Penguins 38% (▼13) 7 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 32% (▲6) 8 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 24% (▼12)
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 88% (▼5) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 71% (▲6) 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1) 68% (▲8) 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 68% (▲2) 5 Detroit Red Wings 32% (▲2) 6 Buffalo Sabres 17% (▼4) 7 Ottawa Senators 7% (▼7) 8 Montreal Canadiens 5% (▼1)
Central Division
1 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 79% (▲1) 2 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 73% (▼10) 3 Colorado Avalanche 72% (▲6) 4 Winnipeg Jets 68% (▲5) 5 Nashville Predators 66% (▲12) 6 Dallas Stars 29% (▼4) 7 Chicago Blackhawks 10% (▲1) 8 Arizona Coyotes 2% (▼6)
Pacific Division
1 Edmonton Oilers 89% (▼2) 2 Calgary Flames 73% (▼9) 3 Vegas Golden Knights 71% (▲12) 4 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 57% (▲13) 5 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 49% (▲15) 6 San Jose Sharks (▼2) 40% (▼7) 7 Vancouver Canucks 13% (▼15) 8 Seattle Kraken 8% (▼14)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 19% (▲1) 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 12% (▼1) 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1) 12% (▼10) 4 Washington Capitals (▲2) 11% (▲7) 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1) 5% (▲1) 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲7) 5% (▲3) 7 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲5) 4% (▲2) 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 4% (▲1) 9 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼5) 3% (▼3) 9 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3) 3% (▲1) 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼5) 3% (▼3) 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 3% 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲8) 3% (▲2) 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3) 3% (▲1) 15 (tie) New York Islanders (▼7) 2% (▼1) 15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2) 2% (▲1) 15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼7) 2% (▼1) 18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲3) 1% (▲1) 18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3) 1% (▲1) 18 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3) 1% (▲1) 18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6) 1% (▼1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 8% (▼1) 1 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲4) 8% (▲3) 3 Edmonton Oilers 7% (▼1) 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 6% (▲1) 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3) 6% (▼3) 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3) 5% (▲1) 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1) 5% 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3) 5% (▲1) 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲3) 5% (▲1) 10 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼5) 4% (▼1) 10 (tie) New York Rangers (▲4) 4% (▲1) 10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼6) 4% (▼2) 10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 4% 10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4) 4% (▲1) 15 (tie) New York Islanders (▼6) 3% (▼1) 15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) 3% 15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 3% 18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 2% 18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3) 2% (▲1) 18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼4) 2% (▼1) 18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) 2% 22 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 1% 22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 1% 22 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1) 1% 22 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 1% 22 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1) 1% 27 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲3) <1% 27 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲3) <1% 27 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3) <1% 27 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼6) <1% (▼1) 27 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼6) <1% (▼1) 27 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼6) <1% (▼1)