There’s only one week left in the CFL regular season, and playoff spots are mostly sorted out. We know all of the playoff teams and where most of the games will be played; the only remaining question is who will finish 2nd and 3rd in the East, as Hamilton and Montreal are currently tied for 2nd spot with 7-6 records. Also, there will be no cross-over this year!
In the West, Winnipeg will finish in first place, Saskatchewan in second, and Calgary third. In the East, Toronto has clinched first, but we’re waiting for the results of this week to see who gets second. Montreal is playing bottom-ranked Ottawa in Montreal on Friday, and Hamilton is hosting 2nd-ranked Saskatchewan on Saturday. If both Montreal and Hamilton win, or they both lose, they end up with tied records (either 8-6 or 7-7), but Hamilton would be awarded second place based on the net aggregate points in the two games they played against each other. Hamilton had beat Montreal 27-10 in Week 4, and Montreal won 23-20 in Week 9, so the aggregate points would be 47-30 in favour of Hamilton.
But let’s look at what happened this week! There were four games, two on Friday and two on Saturday. In the first game on Friday, Hamilton travelled to Toronto to face the first-place Argonauts. Toronto easily defeated Hamilton, 31-12, and now have a 6-0 record at home. That’s a good sign for the Argos, as they will host the East Final. The victory clinched first place for Toronto. Toronto quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson passed for 250 yards and a touchdown; his Hamilton counterpart, Jeremiah Masoli, passed for 326 yards but was intercepted twice.
In Friday’s late game, British Columbia hosted Calgary. Needing a win to stay in the hunt for 2nd place in the West, which would let them host the West Semi-Final, Calgary didn’t disappoint their fans, as they defeated British Columbia 33-23. The BC loss eliminated the Lions from playoff contention, and guaranteed Calgary a spot in the West Final. Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell looks to be rounding into form after his injury earlier in the season, as he passed for 264 yards and three touchdowns. In the losing cause, Lion’s QB Michel Reilly passed for 340 yards and one touchdown.
In Saturday’s early game, Winnipeg travelled to Montreal. The Blue Bombers, the top-ranked team in the CFL, are guaranteed of winning the West Division, and so they rested a number of their starters, including quarterback Zach Collaros. As a result, Montreal defeated Winnipeg 28-14, snapping the Bombers win streak at 9 games and putting the Alouettes in a 2nd-place tie with Hamilton in the East. Montreal quarterback Trevor Harris passed for three touchdowns; Winnipeg 2nd-stringer Sean McGuire threw four interceptions in his first career CFL start. With little to worry about with the passing game, Montreal was able to hold league-leading rusher William Stanback to only 65 yards.
In the final game of the week, last-place in the West Edmonton visited Mosaic Stadium to play 2nd-ranked Saskatchewan. In a game sure to place concern in the heart of Rider fans, Saskatchewan eked out a 29-24 win over Edmonton. The win clinched second place for the Riders, who will host the West Semi-Final in two weeks’ time. Saskatchewan receiver Duke Williams had a big game, catching 8 passes for 146 yards and a touchdown; the other receivers combined for 99 yards.
There will be 5 games played in the final week of the season, as Edmonton will visit Hamilton on Tuesday to make up for their earlier postponed game due to COVID. The key games will be Ottawa at Montreal on Friday and Saskatchewan at Hamilton on Saturday; these are the only games that will affect the playoff positions.
Week 15 Results
Hamilton 12 at Toronto 31
Calgary 33 at British Columbia 23
Winnipeg 14 at Montreal 28
Edmonton 24 at Saskatchewan 29
McDonald CFL Power Ratings
Despite their loss to Montreal, Winnipeg retains top spot in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, with Saskatchewan remaining ranked second. With their loss to Toronto, Hamilton drops from 3rd to 5th, and Calgary and Toronto have moved up into a tie for 3rd in the rankings.
| Ranking | Team | Rating | Record |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1611 (▼15) | 11-2, 1st West |
| 2 | Saskatchewan | 1570 (▲6) | 9-4, 2nd West |
| T-3 (▲2) | Calgary | 1536 (▲12) | 7-6, 3rd West |
| T-3 (▲1) | Toronto | 1536 (▲11) | 9-4, 1st East |
| 5 (▼2) | Hamilton | 1527 (▼11) | 7-6, T-2nd East |
| 6 | Montreal | 1514 (▲15) | 7-6, T-2nd East |
| 7 | British Columbia | 1435 (▼11) | 4-9, 4th West |
| 8 | Edmonton | 1418 (▼6) | 2-10, 5th West |
| 9 | Ottawa | 1379 | 2-11, 4th East |
Grey Cup Predictions
Once again, Winnipeg is our favourite to win the Grey Cup, although we’ve dropped their chances from 40% to 37%. Toronto made a big jump, going from 18% chance to 24%, and are now the favourites in the East to win it all. British Columbia was eliminated from the playoffs, so of course no longer have a chance of winning it.
| Grey Cup Ranking | Team | Rating | Win Grey Cup |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1611 | 37% (▼3) |
| 2 (▲1) | Toronto | 1536 | 24% (▲6) |
| 3 (▲1) | Saskatchewan | 1570 | 13% (▲1) |
| 4 (▼2) | Hamilton | 1527 | 11% (▼7) |
| 5 | Montreal | 1514 | 8% (▲2) |
| 6 | Calgary | 1536 | 7% (▲2) |
| 7 (tie) | British Columbia | 1435 | — (▼1) |
| 7 (tie) | Edmonton | 1424 | — |
| 7 (tie) | Ottawa | 1379 | — |
Our Full Predictions
All the playoff teams have been determined, but it’s still not decided who will finish second in the East and consequently host the East Semi-Final. We’re giving Hamilton a 63% chance of finishing second. Right now, our most likely scenario is Winnipeg playing Toronto in the Grey Cup, as each team only needs to win their respective Division Final to reach the big game. But, victories in the Final are far from assured! It will be interesting as we move into the playoffs in two weeks.
| Team | Rating | Make Playoffs | Host Playoff Game | Win Division | Make Division Final | Make Grey Cup | Win Grey Cup |
| Winnipeg 11-2, 1st in West |
1611 | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | 63% | 37% |
| Toronto 9-4, 1st in East |
1536 | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | 57% | 24% |
| Saskatchewan 9-4, 2nd in West |
1570 | ✔ | ✔ | — | 62% | 24% | 13% |
| Hamilton 7-6, T-2nd in East |
1527 | ✔ | 63% | — | 54% | 23% | 11% |
| Montreal 7-6, T-2nd in East |
1514 | ✔ | 37% | — | 46% | 19% | 8% |
| Calgary 7-6, 3rd in West |
1536 | ✔ | — | — | 38% | 13% | 7% |
| British Columbia 4-9, 4th in West |
1435 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edmonton 2-10, 5th in West |
1418 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ottawa 2-11, 4th in East |
1379 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Week 16 Game Predictions
Tuesday: Edmonton (28%) at Toronto (71%)
Friday: Ottawa (26%) at Montreal (73%)
Friday: Edmonton (40%) at British Columbia (59%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (49%) at Hamilton (50%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (53%) at Calgary (46%)