The NHL is in full swing now, and the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team is very confident in our predictions, as our ratings aren’t seeing the wild swings that they were having as the models calibrated themselves to this year’s teams. Of course, as the season progresses, the ratings will continue to change to reflect current performance, but we’re liking what we’re seeing in our models now.
Carolina continues to be the top ranked team, although they did suffer their first loss of the season this week. The premier game of the week was on Friday night, with #1 Carolina facing #2 Florida in Florida, and the Panthers thoroughly defeated the Hurricanes 5-2. With the win, Florida closed the gap on Carolina, but not enough to take first place in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings. Florida is the only team not to be defeated in regulation time this year, and are now our favourites to win the President’s Trophy, and are tied with Carolina at having the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Out west, Edmonton continues to impress, as they’ve moved into 3rd place in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings. They have an identical 9-1-0 record as Carolina, and went 3-0 this week. We’re currently giving them the best chance of any Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup, at 8%. Connor McDavid scored a highlight reel goal on Thursday against the New York Rangers, and Leon Draisaitl leads the league in goals with 10 (tied with Washington’s Alex Ovechkin) and points with 23, one point ahead of McDavid.
Washington had a bad week, losing all three of their games this week, although one was an overtime loss to 2nd-ranked Florida. Although it’s still early in the year, we’re now giving them only a 66% chance of making the playoffs, as they’re currently sitting in 5th place in the Metropolitan Division. They are leading the league in overtime losses with 4 (out of 11 games), so they could quite easily turn things around.
Sneaking into the top 5 is St. Louis, who moved past Colorado, last week’s #4 team. Although the Blues had an unimpressive week, 1-1-1 against average teams, they are 7-2-1 this season to sit in second place in the Central Division. Minnesota, who leads that division, is only ranked 12th in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings.
Big upward movers this week were Anaheim and Tampa Bay. Anaheim, ranked 29th last week, went 3-0-0, including a 4-1 win over St. Louis last night. That performance saw them shoot up 9 spots to 20th in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, and a jump of 21 rating points. Defending two-time Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay also had a good week, with 2 wins, 3-2 over the 4th-ranked Washington Capitals and 5-3 over the lowly 26th-ranked Ottawa Senators, and an overtime loss to 8th-ranked Toronto. They gained 16 rating points and moved from 15th in our rankings all the way up to 9th.
The biggest downward moves were by the aforementioned Washington Capitals, down 16 points on the week, and the Ottawa Senators, down 20 points and 6 ranking positions to 26th. They went 0-3-1 this week, including a 5-1 loss to bottom-ranked Chicago.
The Top 5
1. Carolina Hurricanes (1577, ▼2)
Record: 9-1-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 89% (▼1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 18% (▼3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%
Last week: 1-1-0
- November 3: Won 4-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (32th, 1432)
- November 6: Lost 5-2 @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1572)
Next week:
- November 9: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1529)
- November 12: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (15th, 1521)
- November 13: vs. St. Louis Blues (5th, 1540)
2. Florida Panthers (1572, ▲6)
Record: 10-0-1, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
Making the playoffs: 93% (▲3)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 22% (▲5)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-0
- November 4: Won in OT 5-4 vs. Washington Capitals (4th, 1546)
- November 6: Won 5-2 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1577)
Next week:
- November 8: @ New York Rangers (14th, 1524)
- November 9: @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1465)
- November 11: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (12th, 1525)
- November 13: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1529)
3. Edmonton Oilers ▲1 (1557, ▲10)
Record: 9-1-0, 1st in Pacific Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 91% (▲6)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▲5)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-0
- November 1: Won 5-2 vs. Seattle Kraken (28th, 1456)
- November 3: Won 5-2 vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1498)
- November 5: Won in OT 6-5 vs. New York Rangers (14th, 1524)
Next week:
- November 9: @ Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1473)
- November 11: @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1528)
- November 12: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1449)
- November 14: @ St. Louis Blues (5th, 1540)
4. Washington Capitals ▼1 (1546, ▼16)
Record: 5-2-4, 5th in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 66% (▼13)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼6)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▼2)
Last week: 0-2-1
- November 1: Lost 3-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1529)
- November 4: Lost in OT 5-4 @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1572)
- November 6: Lost 2-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (15th, 1521)
Next week:
- November 8: vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1449)
- November 11: @ Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1473)
- November 12: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (21th, 1473)
- November 14: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (12th, 1525)
5. St. Louis Blues ▲1 (1540, ▼2)
Record: 7-2-1, 2nd in Central Division
Chances of:
Making the playoffs: 83% (▼1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%
Last week: 1-1-1
- November 3: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1466)
- November 4: Won 5-3 @ San Jose Sharks (19th, 1480)
- November 7: Lost 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (20th, 1475)
Next week:
- November 9: @ Winnipeg Jets (17th, 1507)
- November 11: vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1498)
- November 13: @ Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1577)
- November 14: vs. Edmonton Oilers (3rd, 1557)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Carolina Hurricanes 1577 (▼2) 2 Florida Panthers 1572 (▲6) 3 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 1557 (▲10) 4 Washington Capitals (▼1) 1546 (▼16) 5 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 1540 (▼2) 6 Colorado Avalanche (▼2) 1536 (▼11) 7 New York Islanders (▲4) 1532 (▲8) 8 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5) 1531 (▲13) 9 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) 1529 (▲4) 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲6) 1529 (▲16) 11 Boston Bruins (▼3) 1528 (▼2) 12 (tie) Minnesota Wild 1525 (▲6) 12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3) 1525 (▼2) 14 New York Rangers (▼7) 1524 (▼7) 15 Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) 1521 (▲15) 16 Vegas Golden Knights (▼3) 1518 17 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 1507 (▼5) 18 Nashville Predators 1498 (▲2) 19 San Jose Sharks 1480 (▼2) 20 Anaheim Ducks (▲9) 1475 (▲21) 21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲5) 1473 (▲11) 21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings 1473 (▼3) 23 Dallas Stars (▼1) 1468 (▼3) 24 Los Angeles Kings 1466 25 New Jersey Devils (▼2) 1465 (▼5) 26 Ottawa Senators (▼6) 1459 (▼20) 27 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1458 28 Seattle Kraken (▼1) 1456 (▼5) 29 Buffalo Sabres (▼4) 1449 (▼14) 30 Montreal Canadiens 1437 (▼7) 31 Arizona Coyotes 1434 (▼4) 32 Chicago Blackhawks 1432 (▼1)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 43% (▲1) 2 Washington Capitals 14% (▼8) 3 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) 11% (▲3) 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) 11% (▲5) 5 New York Rangers (▼2) 9% (▼3) 6 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 7% (▲1) 7 Columbus Blue Jackets 4% (▲2) 8 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 2%
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 58% (▲6) 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 13% (▲3) 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2) 13% (▲4) 4 Boston Bruins (▼2) 11% (▼4) 5 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 3% (▼1) 6 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 2% (▼3) 7 Ottawa Senators (▼1) 1% (▼3) 8 Montreal Canadiens <1% (▼1)
Central Division
1 St. Louis Blues 33% (▼1) 2 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 25% (▲9) 3 Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 15% (▼6) 4 Winnipeg Jets 14% 5 Nashville Predators 9% (▲1) 6 Dallas Stars 4% 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% (▼1) 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1%
Pacific Division
1 Edmonton Oilers 47% (▲9) 2 Calgary Flames 26% (▼3) 3 Vegas Golden Knights 9% (▼4) 4 San Jose Sharks 6% (▼3) 5 Anaheim Ducks 5% (▲2) 6 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 3% 7 Vancouver Canucks (▼2) 2% (▼1) 8 Seattle Kraken (▼3) 1% (▼2)
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 89% (▼1) 2 Washington Capitals 66% (▼13) 3 New York Islanders (▲1) 60% (▲5) 4 Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) 59% (▲12) 5 New York Rangers (▼2) 58% (▼7) 6 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 51% (▲1) 7 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 36% (▲9) 8 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 26% (▼3)
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 93% (▲3) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 66% (▲14) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 65% (▲15) 4 Boston Bruins (▼2) 60% (▼1) 5 Detroit Red Wings 30% (▼3) 6 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 21% (▼12) 7 Ottawa Senators 14% (▼16) 8 Montreal Canadiens 6% (▼3)
Central Division
1 St. Louis Blues 83% (▼1) 2 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 78% (▲9) 3 Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 66% (▼9) 4 Winnipeg Jets 63% (▼2) 5 Nashville Predators 54% (▲3) 6 Dallas Stars 33% (▼4) 7 Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 9% (▼1) 8 Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 8% (▼3)
Pacific Division
1 Edmonton Oilers 91% (▲6) 2 Calgary Flames 82% (▲2) 3 Vegas Golden Knights 59% (▼3) 4 San Jose Sharks 47% (▼5) 5 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 44% (▲15) 6 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 34% (▲3) 7 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 28% 8 Seattle Kraken (▼2) 22% (▼7)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Florida Panthers (▲1) 22% (▲5) 2 Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 18% (▼3) 3 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 13% (▲5) 4 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2) 6% 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues 6% (▼2) 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3) 4% (▲1) 6 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼3) 4% (▼6) 8 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) 3% 8 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4) 3% (▲1) 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲4) 3% (▲1) 8 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲9) 3% (▲2) 12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3) 2% (▼1) 12 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼5) 2% (▼2) 12 (tie) New York Rangers (▼5) 2% (▼2) 12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 2% 12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 2% 17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲6) 1% (▲1) 17 (tie) Nashville Predators 1% 17 (tie) San Jose Sharks 1% 17 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼5) 1% (▼1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 9% 1 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1) 9% (▲1) 3 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 8% (▲2) 4 St. Louis Blues 6% 5 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2) 5% 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 5% (▼1) 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3) 5% (▲1) 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2) 5% (▼2) 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) 4% 9 (tie) New York Islanders (▲4) 4% (▲1) 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲4) 4% (▲1) 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲4) 4% (▲1) 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 4% 14 (tie) New York Rangers (▼6) 3% (▼1) 14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) 3% 14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 3% 14 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 3% 14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼6) 3% (▼1) 19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2) 2% (▲1) 19 (tie) San Jose Sharks 2% 21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres 1% 21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets 1% 21 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2) 1% (▼1) 21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings 1% 21 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 1% 21 (tie) New Jersey Devils 1% 21 (tie) Ottawa Senators 1% 21 (tie) Seattle Kraken 1% 21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks 1% 30 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 30 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 30 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1%