We’re three weeks into the NHL season now, and most of the uncertainty we’ve introduced into our models has worked its way out of the system, and the models are now pretty well calibrated. We’re still seeing some big changes, but no more than we would normally expect to see in a week, so things seem pretty stable. Of course, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty because it’s so early in the season, but we feel that our ratings are pretty accurate as to how the teams are currently playing, and as the season progresses, we’ll see more and more accurate calculations.
Carolina remains the top team in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, and it’s not a surprise, as they are the only undefeated team in the league, with a current record of 8-0-0. That’s an amazing start! As a result, despite them only having played about 10% of their schedule, we’re already giving them a 90% chance of making the playoffs, and a 21% chance of winning the President’s Trophy. They are also the favourites to win the Stanley Cup, but at 9% probability, that’s far from a sure thing! They won all four of their games this week, although two of those games were against last-ranked Chicago and second-last-ranked Arizona. But still, 8 wins to start the season is pretty impressive!
Florida is ranked number 2, as they were last week. They’ve had as impressive a start as Carolina, having won their first eight games. In their ninth, though, they lost in a shootout to 8th-ranked Boston. Their numbers aren’t far behind Carolina’s, with a 90% chance of making the playoffs (same as Carolina), a 17% chance of winning the President’s Trophy (vs. 21%), and an 8% probability of winning the Stanley Cup (vs. 9%). They have a tough week coming up which will be a good indication of whether they’re as good as we think they are, as they play number 3 Washington on Thursday and number 1 Carolina on Saturday. That Saturday game should be a good one!
Washington is ranked number 3, up one spot from last week. They had two wins and an overtime loss. They haven’t lost in regulation time yet this year, but do have three overtime losses, blemishing their otherwise spotless record at 5-0-3.
Moving back into the top 5 is Colorado, taking the number 4 spot. They are 4-4-0 this year, good for only 5th position in the Central Division, but they seem to be starting to come into form.
Rounding out the top 5 is Edmonton, who are tied with Colorado for the number 4 spot. They lost their first game of the year to Philadelphia, but followed that up with a win over Vancouver. Despite their great start with a 6-1-0 record, they are only 2nd in the Pacific Division.
The reason Edmonton is only 2nd in the Pacific is because Calgary is also having a great start. They are 6-1-1 for a one point lead over Edmonton, and had 4 wins this week. They had the biggest move this week, picking up 33 rating points and moving up 8 spots in our rankings, to number 10. It might be a great year for Alberta teams!
The biggest downward movement this week was Pittsburgh. They had been number 2 last week, but after losing three games and being outscored 13-3 this week, we’ve dropped their rating by 33 points, moving them to number 9 in the rankings. We’ll keep an eye on them to see if they can turn things around.
The Top 5
1. Carolina Hurricanes (1579, ▲20)
Record: 8-0-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 90% (▲11)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 21% (▲10)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)
Last week: 4-0-0
- October 25: Won 4-1 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (13th, 1518)
- October 28: Won 3-0 vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1530)
- October 29: Won 6-3 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (32th, 1433)
- October 31: Won 2-1 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1438)
Next week:
- November 3: @ Chicago Blackhawks (32th, 1433)
- November 6: @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1566)
2. Florida Panthers (1566, ▲10)
Record: 8-0-1, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 90% (▲8)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 17% (▲5)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-1
- October 25: Won 5-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1438)
- October 27: Won 4-1 vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1530)
- October 29: Won in OT 3-2 @ Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1476)
- October 30: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Boston Bruins (8th, 1530)
Next week:
- November 4: vs. Washington Capitals (3rd, 1562)
- November 6: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1579)
3. Washington Capitals ▲1 (1562, ▲8)
Record: 5-0-3, 2nd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 79% (▲6)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-1
- October 25: Won 7-5 @ Ottawa Senators (20th, 1479)
- October 27: Lost in OT 3-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1476)
- October 29: Won 2-0 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1438)
Next week:
- November 1: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (15th, 1513)
- November 4: @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1566)
- November 6: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1506)
4 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲3 (1547, ▲6)
Record: 4-4-0, 5th in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 75% (▲5)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 4%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- October 26: Lost 3-1 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1518)
- October 28: Won 4-3 @ St. Louis Blues (6th, 1542)
- October 30: Won 4-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (12th, 1519)
Next week:
- November 3: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1462)
- November 6: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1462)
4 (tie). Edmonton Oilers ▲1 (1547, ▼2)
Record: 6-1-0, 2nd in Pacific Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 85% (▼1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▼2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)
Last week: 1-1-0
- October 27: Lost 5-3 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1506)
- October 30: Won 2-1 @ Vancouver Canucks (28th, 1458)
Next week:
- November 1: vs. Seattle Kraken (27th, 1461)
- November 3: vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1496)
- November 5: vs. New York Rangers (7th, 1531)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Carolina Hurricanes 1579 (▲20) 2 Florida Panthers 1566 (▲10) 3 Washington Capitals (▲1) 1562 (▲8) 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3) 1547 (▲6) 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 1547 (▼2) 6 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 1542 (▲1) 7 New York Rangers (▲2) 1531 (▲4) 8 Boston Bruins (▼2) 1530 (▼12) 9 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼7) 1527 (▼29) 10 Calgary Flames (▲8) 1525 (▲33) 11 New York Islanders 1524 12 Minnesota Wild (▼2) 1519 (▼7) 13 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 1518 (▼1) 13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 1518 (▲7) 15 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 1513 (▲7) 16 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 1512 (▲14) 17 Philadelphia Flyers 1506 (▲10) 18 Nashville Predators (▲1) 1496 (▲7) 19 San Jose Sharks (▼4) 1482 (▼16) 20 Ottawa Senators (▲3) 1479 (▲2) 21 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 1476 (▼2) 22 Dallas Stars (▼2) 1471 (▼16) 23 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 1470 (▲1) 24 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 1466 (▲2) 25 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 1463 (▲1) 26 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 1462 (▲2) 27 Seattle Kraken (▲3) 1461 (▲8) 28 Vancouver Canucks (▼7) 1458 (▼22) 29 Anaheim Ducks (▲2) 1454 (▲2) 30 Montreal Canadiens (▼2) 1444 (▼12) 31 Arizona Coyotes (▼3) 1438 (▼18) 32 Chicago Blackhawks 1433 (▼8)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 42% (▲16) 2 Washington Capitals (▲1) 22% (▲2) 3 New York Rangers (▲1) 12% (▼1) 4 New York Islanders (▲1) 8% (▼2) 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 6% (▲1) 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3) 6% (▼15) 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 2% 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils 2% (▼1)
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 52% (▲12) 2 Boston Bruins 15% (▼9) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 10% (▲1) 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 9% (▼1) 5 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 5% 6 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 4% (▼2) 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) 4% 8 Montreal Canadiens 1% (▼1)
Central Division
1 St. Louis Blues 34% (▲1) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 21% (▲3) 3 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 16% (▼6) 4 Winnipeg Jets 14% (▲5) 5 Nashville Predators (▲1) 8% (▲2) 6 Dallas Stars (▼2) 4% (▼5) 7 Arizona Coyotes 1% (▼1) 8 Chicago Blackhawks <1% (▼1)
Pacific Division
1 Edmonton Oilers 38% (▼5) 2 Calgary Flames (▲1) 29% (▲17) 3 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 13% (▲4) 4 San Jose Sharks (▼2) 9% (▼8) 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 3% (▼1) 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 3% (▼1) 5 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲3) 3% 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼1) 3% (▼6)
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 90% (▲11) 2 Washington Capitals (▲1) 79% (▲6) 3 New York Rangers (▲1) 65% (▲3) 4 New York Islanders (▲1) 55% (▼1) 5 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3) 50% (▼24) 6 Philadelphia Flyers 47% (▲7) 7 New Jersey Devils 29% (▼2) 8 Columbus Blue Jackets 27% (▲2)
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 90% (▲8) 2 Boston Bruins 61% (▼9) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 52% (▲5) 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 50% 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 33% (▲2) 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings 33% (▼2) 7 Ottawa Senators 30% 8 Montreal Canadiens 9% (▼7)
Central Division
1 St. Louis Blues 84% (▲2) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 75% (▲5) 3 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 69% (▼5) 4 Winnipeg Jets 65% (▲13) 5 Nashville Predators (▲1) 51% (▲9) 6 Dallas Stars (▼2) 37% (▼15) 7 Arizona Coyotes 11% (▼12) 8 Chicago Blackhawks 10% (▼6)
Pacific Division
1 Edmonton Oilers 85% (▼1) 2 Calgary Flames (▲1) 80% (▲25) 3 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 62% (▲12) 4 San Jose Sharks (▼2) 52% (▼12) 5 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 31% (▼1) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 29% (▼1) 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2) 29% (▲4) 8 Vancouver Canucks (▼3) 28% (▼20)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 21% (▲10) 2 Florida Panthers (▼1) 17% (▲5) 3 Washington Capitals (▲3) 10% (▲2) 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 8% (▼2) 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues 8% (▼1) 6 Calgary Flames (▲7) 6% (▲4) 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲2) 4% 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2) 4% 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2) 3% (▼3) 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1) 3% (▼2) 9 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2) 3% 12 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4) 2% (▲1) 12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼8) 2% (▼7) 12 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 2% 12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲4) 2% (▲1) 12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4) 2% (▲1) 17 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 1% 17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 1% 17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) 1% 17 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1) 1% 17 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼6) 1% (▼2) 17 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4) 1% (▼1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Carolina Hurricanes 9% (▲2) 2 Florida Panthers (▼1) 8% (▲1) 3 Washington Capitals (▲1) 7% (▲1) 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3) 6% (▲1) 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼3) 6% (▼1) 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues 6% 7 Calgary Flames (▲5) 5% (▲2) 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) 4% (▼1) 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1) 4% (▼1) 8 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2) 4% 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲4) 4% (▲1) 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4) 4% (▲1) 13 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3) 3% (▼1) 13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲5) 3% (▲1) 13 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲5) 3% (▲1) 13 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼9) 3% (▼3) 13 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 3% 13 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 3% 19 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1) 2% 19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼7) 2% (▼1) 21 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2) 1% 21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 1% 21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) 1% 21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼3) 1% (▼1) 21 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 1% 21 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2) 1% 21 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2) 1% 21 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2) 1% 21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼3) 1% (▼1) 30 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼7) <1% (▼1) 30 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼7) <1% (▼1) 30 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼7) <1% (▼1)