Month: November 2021

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 16

CFL logoIt was a very boring weekend of games in the CFL this week.  Most teams’ playoff positions were determined, so they rested quite a few starters, giving backups a chance to play.  It made for very unpredictable and yet not well-played games.

It was also a rare week of 5 games, with Edmonton playing twice, due to their earlier game with Toronto rescheduled because of COVID protocols.  Edmonton ended up playing three games in eight days, quite a difficult schedule.  But, neither of their games this week meant anything, so it probably wasn’t a big deal.

Now, having said all that, I didn’t bother watching any of the games, so here’s the headlines and links to the game summaries from cfl.ca:

Week 16 Results

Edmonton 13  at Toronto 7
Ottawa 19  at Montreal 18
Edmonton 10  at British Columbia 43
Saskatchewan 3  at Hamilton 24
Winnipeg 12  at Calgary 13

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was very little change in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings this week.  The top 3 teams remain Winnipeg, Saskatchewan, and Calgary; hopefully, that will make for interesting playoffs in the West, although Winnipeg is very dominant, and will play the West Final at home.  Saskatchewan is rated slightly better than Calgary, but this week showed what could happen to them if they lose their starting quarterback.  Toronto dropped down in the rankings, so despite finishing first in the East, we’ve got them ranked as the second-best team in the East, with Hamilton number one.  Ottawa finished the season ranked last, but with their win this week, their rating did improve, but the all still below the 1400-rating-point stink line.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1598 (▼13) 11-3, 1st West
2 Saskatchewan 1558 (▼12) 9-5, 2nd West
3 Calgary 1550 (▲14) 8-6, 3rd West
4 (▲1) Hamilton 1539 (▲12) 8-6, 2nd East
5 (▼2) Toronto 1518 (▼18) 9-5, 1st East
6 Montreal 1496 (▼18) 7-7, 3rd East
7 British Columbia 1446 (▲11) 5-9, 4th West
8 Edmonton 1425 (▲7) 3-11, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1398 (▲19) 3-11, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg is still the favourite to win the Grey Cup, with a 36% chance.  But, remember, that’s just over a one-third chance of winning, so despite being the dominant team, anything can happen.  Finishing first in your division is a big advantage; you only need to win one game to make the Grey Cup, and you play that game at home, so Toronto is our number 2 favourite to win, at 22%.  Perhaps Hamilton at #3 is a bit of a surprise, but if they do make it to the Grey Cup, they’ll be playing it at home, so that will boost their chances.

We’re giving a Western team a 57% chance of winning the Grey Cup.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1598 36% (▼1)
2 Toronto 1518 22% (▼2)
3 (▲1) Hamilton 1539 15% (▲4)
4 (▼1) Saskatchewan 1558 12% (▼1)
5 (▲1) Calgary 1550 9% (▲2)
6 (▼1) Montreal 1496 6% (▼2)
7 (tie) British Columbia 1435 —
7 (tie) Edmonton 1424 —
7 (tie) Ottawa 1379 —

Our Full Predictions

This weekend, we’re predicting wins for the home teams: Hamilton over Montreal in the East, and Saskatchewan over Calgary in the West.  Hamilton are clear favourites to win the East Semi-Final (63% chance of winning), but Saskatchewan will have a tougher time facing Calgary (58%).  Hopefully the friendly confines of Mosaic Stadium will be good to the Riders.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
11-3
1st in West		 1598 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ 61% 36%
Toronto
9-5
1st in East		 1518 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ 55% 22%
Hamilton
8-6
2nd in East		 1539 ✔ ✔ — 63% 30% 15%
Saskatchewan
9-5
2nd in West		 1558 ✔ ✔ — 58% 23% 12%
Calgary
8-6
3rd in West		 1550 ✔ — — 42% 16% 9%
Montreal
7-7
3rd in East		 1496 ✔ — — 37% 16% 6%
British Columbia
5-9
4th in West		 1446 — — — — — —
Edmonton
3-11
5th in West		 1425 — — — — — —
Ottawa
3-11
4th in East		 1398 — — — — — —

Division Semi-Final Predictions

Sunday: Montreal (37%) at Hamilton (63%)
Sunday: Calgary (42%) at Saskatchewan (58%)

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – November 21, 2021

Hockey playerWell, it finally happened — COVID hit the NHL this week.  Ottawa had 10 players and one coach test positive this week, and as a result, all of their games were postponed.  The virus didn’t spread to any other teams, so that’s a good thing.  Also, all of the positive tests were in people who were fully vaccinated, so the chances of someone getting seriously ill are pretty low.  But still, it just goes to show you that a 90% efficacy rate doesn’t mean 100% protection; this virus can spread like wildfire, even among fully vaccinated groups, so we all still need to be vigilant.

There was very little change among the top 5 this week.  All 5 teams from last week are still the top 5 teams this week, with a minor reshuffling in the positions, as Edmonton dropped from 3rd to 5th, and as a result, Florida and Colorado both moved up a position, to 3rd and 4th, respectively.

Carolina continues to be our top-ranked team.  They have a 14-2-0 record, and sit atop the Metropolitan Division.  They went 3-0-0 this week on the road, and are looking unstoppable.  We’re giving them a 96% chance of making the playoffs, even this early in the season, and they are our favourites to win both the President’s Trophy (30%!) and the Stanley Cup (11%).  They have three more games on the road, then return home next Sunday to play a key game against #2 Washington.

Washington is in second spot in our rankings again this week, despite not having a very good week.  They went 2-1-1 on a West Coast trip, with their overtime loss coming against Anaheim (19th) and their outright loss coming against lowly Seattle (31st!).  They did have two shutouts, though, against Los Angeles (23rd) and San Jose (22nd).  They have a tough week coming up, with their first game against 29th-ranked Montreal, but followed by games against 3rd-ranked Florida, then top-ranked Carolina.

Florida moved up a spot to 3rd in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  They won all three of their games this week, and sit in top spot in the Atlantic Division.  We’re giving them a 95% chance of making the playoffs.  They’ll have a test this week when they play 2nd-ranked Washington on the road on Friday.

Colorado moved up one spot in the rankings, from 5th to 4th.  They had a quiet and easy week, playing only two games, and those being wins against 30th-ranked Vancouver and 31st-ranked Seattle.  They are ranked 4th in our Ratings, but are in 5th place in the Central Division with an 8-5-1 record.  They were the top-ranked team at the end of the regular season last year, so we expect better of them, but they’ll need to improve their record to hold their ranking.  We’re only giving them an 82% chance of making the playoffs, but that is up 10% from last week.

Rounding out the top 5 is Edmonton, who dropped from 3rd last week.  They went 2-1-0 this week, losing in Winnipeg 5-2 then following it up with a 2-1 shootout win at home against those same 14th-ranked Jets.  Their final game of the week was a 5-2 victory over 26th-ranked Chicago.  We’re giving them a 91% chance of making the playoffs, but surprisingly, they are only in 2nd place in the Pacific Division!

Top spot in the Pacific Division belongs to Calgary, who had the biggest move in our rankings this week.  They went 3-0-1 this week, with all four games being on the road.  Two of their victories were shutouts!  Based on this week’s performance, we’ve moved them up to 7th in our rankings, up from 14th, and awarded them 25 additional McDonald NHL Power Ratings ranking points.

The worst performer of the week was the New York Islanders.  They lost all four of their games this week, and now are in last place in the Metropolitan Division with a 5-8-2 record.  They did have a tough week, facing Tampa Bay (ranked 11th), Florida (3rd), Calgary (7th), and Toronto (6th).  We’ve reduced their chances of making the playoffs, from 53% all the way down to 27%.  We’ve reduced their rating by a whopping 29 points.

There’s good news for Canadian fans (but not Canadiens fans).  3 of the top 7 teams are from Canada, with Edmonton in 5th, Toronto in 6th, and Calgary in 7th.  Sadly, Ottawa (27th), Montreal (29th) and Vancouver (30th) aren’t holding up their end.  But the other Canadian team, Winnipeg, is in the top half, at 14th.  Let’s keep hoping for a Canadian team to bring home our Stanley Cup!

The Top 5

1. Carolina Hurricanes (1593, ▲20)

Record: 14-2-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 96% (▲6)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 30% (▲11)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • November 16: Won 4-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (9th, 1538)
  • November 18: Won 2-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1484)
  • November 20: Won 5-4 @ Los Angeles Kings (23th, 1470)

Next week:

  • November 22: @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1475)
  • November 24: @ Seattle Kraken (31th, 1432)
  • November 26: @ Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1506)
  • November 28: vs. Washington Capitals (2nd, 1573)

2. Washington Capitals (1573, ▲2)

Record: 11-3-5, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 87% (▲2)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▼2)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 2-1-1

  • November 16: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1484)
  • November 17: Won 2-0 @ Los Angeles Kings (23th, 1470)
  • November 20: Won 4-0 @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1475)
  • November 21: Lost 5-2 @ Seattle Kraken (31th, 1432)

Next week:

  • November 24: vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1437)
  • November 26: vs. Florida Panthers (3rd, 1572)
  • November 28: @ Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1593)

3. Florida Panthers ▲1 (1572, ▲17)

Record: 13-2-3, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 95% (▲7)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 17% (▲5)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • November 16: Won 6-1 vs. New York Islanders (18th, 1495)
  • November 18: Won 4-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (20th, 1482)
  • November 20: Won 5-4 vs. Minnesota Wild (12th, 1523)

Next week:

  • November 24: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1506)
  • November 26: @ Washington Capitals (2nd, 1573)
  • November 27: vs. Seattle Kraken (31th, 1432)

4. Colorado Avalanche ▲1 (1558, ▲12)

Record: 8-5-1, 5th in Central Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 82% (▲10)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▲1)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

  • November 17: Won 4-2 @ Vancouver Canucks (30th, 1436)
  • November 19: Won 7-3 @ Seattle Kraken (31th, 1432)

Next week:

  • November 22: vs. Ottawa Senators (27th, 1447)
  • November 24: vs. Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1484)
  • November 26: @ Dallas Stars (21th, 1477)
  • November 27: vs. Nashville Predators (17th, 1498)

5. Edmonton Oilers ▼2 (1552, ▼4)

Record: 13-4-0, 2nd in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 91% (▲2)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▼3)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 2-1-0

  • November 16: Lost 5-2 @ Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1513)
  • November 18: Won in SO 2-1 vs. Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1513)
  • November 20: Won 5-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1451)

Next week:

  • November 23: @ Dallas Stars (21th, 1477)
  • November 24: @ Arizona Coyotes (32th, 1429)
  • November 27: @ Vegas Golden Knights (9th, 1538)

 

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           1593 (▲20)
 2       Washington Capitals           1573 (▲2)
 3       Florida Panthers (▲1)         1572 (▲17)
 4       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       1558 (▲12)
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1552 (▼4)
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      1547 (▲12)
 7       Calgary Flames (▲7)           1545 (▲25)
 8       New York Rangers (▼1)         1540 (▲3)
 9       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     1538 (▲3)
10       Boston Bruins (▼4)            1537 (▼1)
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           1525 (▼4)
12       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1523 (▼8)
13       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲5)      1516 (▲6)
14 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2)          1513 (▼12)
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1513 (▲1)
16       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1506 (▼9)
17       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1498 (▼14)
18       New York Islanders (▼5)       1495 (▼29)
19       Anaheim Ducks                 1484 (▼5)
20       New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1482 (▲5)
21       Dallas Stars (▲3)             1477 (▲9)
22       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1475 (▼3)
23       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1470 (▼15)
24       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1461 (▲2)
25       Detroit Red Wings (▼2)        1454 (▼19)
26       Chicago Blackhawks (▲4)       1451 (▲11)
27       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1447
28       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1444 (▼2)
29       Montreal Canadiens            1437 (▼4)
30       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        1436 (▼6)
31       Seattle Kraken                1432 (▼4)
32       Arizona Coyotes               1429 (▲13)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           56% (▲17)
 2       Washington Capitals           22% (▼5)
 3       New York Rangers              12% (▼2)
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      3% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      3%
 6       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        2%
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1%
 7 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3)       1% (▼6)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              53% (▲12)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           20% (▲1)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           13% (▼4)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼1)            12% (▼5)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1% (▼3)
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 7 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       32% (▲12)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           21% (▼6)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            18% (▲2)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          14% (▼5)
 5       Nashville Predators           9% (▼6)
 6       Dallas Stars                  4% (▲1)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            1%
 8       Arizona Coyotes               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               39% (▼5)
 2       Calgary Flames                33% (▲15)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          16% (▼1)
 4       Anaheim Ducks                 7% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             3% (▼4)
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          3% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           <1%
 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1% (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           96% (▲6)
 2       Washington Capitals           87% (▲2)
 3       New York Rangers              76% (▲5)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      48% (▼4)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      45% (▲7)
 6       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        36% (▲4)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    27% (▲3)
 7 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3)       27% (▼26)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              95% (▲7)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           81% (▲10)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           71% (▲3)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼1)            69% (▲1)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             16% (▼16)
 6       Buffalo Sabres                14% (▼3)
 7       Ottawa Senators               7%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            3% (▼2)

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲2)       82% (▲10)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           74% (▼5)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            69% (▲1)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          64% (▼9)
 5       Nashville Predators           54% (▼12)
 6       Dallas Stars                  37% (▲8)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            15% (▲5)
 8       Arizona Coyotes               4% (▲2)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               91% (▲2)
 2       Calgary Flames                89% (▲16)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          76% (▲5)
 4       Anaheim Ducks                 57%
 5       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          37% (▼3)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        35% (▼14)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             9% (▼4)
 8       Seattle Kraken                7% (▼1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           30% (▲11)
 2       Florida Panthers              17% (▲5)
 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          9% (▼3)
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      9% (▼2)
 5       Calgary Flames (▲4)           6% (▲3)
 6 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       4% (▲1)
 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1)         4% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      4%
 9       Tampa Bay Lightning           3%
10 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3)            2% (▼2)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼5)           2% (▼3)
10 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     2% (▼1)
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲4)            1%
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      1% (▼1)
14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1% (▼1)
14 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4)      1%
14 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼5)          1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           11% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         8% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      8%
 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            7% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          7%
 6       Calgary Flames (▲4)           6% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      5%
 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     5%
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3)            4% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           4% (▼1)
 9 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         4%
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      4%
13 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼3)          3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼3)            3% (▼1)
15 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲3)            2%
15 (tie) Nashville Predators           2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      2%
19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲8)       1% (▲1)
19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲3)    1%
19 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲3)             1%
19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲3)        1%
19 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1% (▼1)
19 (tie) New York Islanders (▼4)       1% (▼2)
19 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1%
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1% (▼1)
27 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
27 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼5)           <1% (▼1)
27 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
27 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
27 (tie) Seattle Kraken                <1%
27 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – November 14, 2021

Hockey playerThere was little movement in the top 5 in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings this week, with only one team moving in, and minor shuffling occurring.  Carolina remains the top ranked team, Washington has moved up two spots to 2nd, leaving Edmonton in 3rd and pushing Florida to 4th.  New to the top 5 this week is Colorado, as they re-enter at 5th, while St. Louis dropped out of the top 5, and fell all the way to 12th.

Colorado is currently sitting atop the Metropolitan Division with an 11-2-0 record.  This week, they won twice (once in overtime) but lost a close 2-1 game to Philadelphia.  Their rating has dropped slightly, but not enough to move them out of top spot.

Washington had a huge week this week, going 4-0-0, although all their wins were against teams in the bottom half of our rankings.  They defeated Buffalo (27th), Detroit (23rd), Columbus (25th), and Pittsburgh (18th).  Still, the four wins were good enough to give them a 25 point jump in our ratings, just two rating points behind Carolina.  Washington trails Carolina in the Metropolitan Division; both have 22 points, but Washington has played two more games than Carolina, and Carolina has more wins (11 vs. 9).  Washington has another four-game week this week, again against bottom-half teams: Anaheim (19th), Los Angeles (20th), San Jose (21st), and Seattle (31st).

Edmonton, leading the Pacific Division with a 11-3-0 record, had a middling week, with two wins and 2 losses.  Surprisingly, they lost to two bottom-half teams: Detroit (23rd) and Buffalo (27th), but beat two top-half teams, Boston (6th) and St. Louis (12th).  This performance left them unchanged at 3rd in our rankings, with a decrease of just 1 rating point.

Florida, ranked 2nd last week, went winless, with 2 losses and 2 overtime losses.  Previously, they had only lost one game all year, an overtime loss!  This performance dropped them 17 rating points in this week’s ratings, and moved them down to 4th spot.  With their 10-2-3 record, they still lead the Atlantic Division, two points ahead of 8th-ranked Toronto.

Colorado, despite sporting a 6-5-1 record and currently sitting in 5th spot in the Central Division, moved into 5th overall in our rankings.  They had a relatively easy week, beating Vancouver (ranked 28th) and San Jose (21st).  They’ve got another easy week coming up, playing on the road against Vancouver and Seattle (31st).

The biggest upward-mover in our ratings this week was Washington, with that 4-0-0 week.  Also having big weeks were Los Angeles and Vegas.  Los Angeles went 3-0-1, including a big 5-1 win over 8th-ranked Toronto on the road.  That week gained them 19 rating points, moving them up 4 spots in our rankings to 20th.  Vegas went 3-0-0; that earned them 17 rating points, moving them up from 16th in our rankings all the way up to a tie for 8th with Toronto!

The biggest downward-movers were Seattle, Arizona, and previously-discussed Florida.  Expansion team Seattle lost all 3 of their games this week, losing 20 rating points and moving them from a 28th ranking down to 31st.  We’re now giving them only an 8% chance of making the playoffs.  Arizona also had an 0-3-0 week, losing 18 rating points.  This has moved them down to last spot in our rankings.  They currently have a 1-13-1 record, and we’re only giving them a 2% chance of making the playoffs.

The Top 5

1. Carolina Hurricanes (1573, ▼4)

Record: 11-2-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 90% (▲1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 19% (▲1)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

  • November 9: Won in OT 2-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (11th, 1529)
  • November 12: Lost 2-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (15th, 1515)
  • November 13: Won 3-2 vs. St. Louis Blues (12th, 1525)

Next week:

  • November 16: @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1535)
  • November 18: @ Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1489)
  • November 20: @ Los Angeles Kings (20th, 1485)

2. Washington Capitals ▲2 (1571, ▲25)

Record: 9-2-4, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 85% (▲19)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▲7)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲3)

Last week: 4-0-0

  • November 8: Won 5-3 vs. Buffalo Sabres (27th, 1446)
  • November 11: Won 2-0 @ Detroit Red Wings (23th, 1473)
  • November 12: Won 4-3 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (25th, 1459)
  • November 14: Won 6-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1510)

Next week:

  • November 16: @ Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1489)
  • November 17: @ Los Angeles Kings (20th, 1485)
  • November 20: @ San Jose Sharks (21st, 1478)
  • November 21: @ Seattle Kraken (31st, 1436)

3. Edmonton Oilers (1556, ▼1)

Record: 11-3-0, 1st in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 89% (▼2)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 12% (▼1)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼1)

Last week: 2-2-0

  • November 9: Lost 4-2 @ Detroit Red Wings (23rd, 1473)
  • November 11: Won 5-3 @ Boston Bruins (6th, 1538)
  • November 12: Lost 3-2 @ Buffalo Sabres (27th, 1446)
  • November 14: Won 5-4 @ St. Louis Blues (12th, 1525)

Next week:

  • November 16: @ Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1512)
  • November 18: vs. Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1512)
  • November 20: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (30th, 1440)

4. Florida Panthers ▼2 (1555, ▼17)

Record: 10-2-3, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 88% (▼5)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 12% (▼10)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼3)

Last week: 0-2-2

  • November 8: Lost 4-3 @ New York Rangers (7th, 1537)
  • November 9: Lost 7-3 @ New Jersey Devils (22th, 1477)
  • November 11: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1510)
  • November 13: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (11th, 1529)

Next week:

  • November 16: vs. New York Islanders (13th, 1524)
  • November 18: vs. New Jersey Devils (22nd, 1477)
  • November 20: vs. Minnesota Wild (10th, 1531)

5. Colorado Avalanche ▲1 (1546, ▲10)

Record: 6-5-1, 5th in Central Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 72% (▲6)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▲1)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

  • November 11: Won 7-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (28th, 1442)
  • November 13: Won 6-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (21st, 1478)

Next week:

  • November 17: @ Vancouver Canucks (28th, 1442)
  • November 19: @ Seattle Kraken (31st, 1436)

 

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           1573 (▼4)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲2)      1571 (▲25)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               1556 (▼1)
 4       Florida Panthers (▼2)         1555 (▼17)
 5       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       1546 (▲10)
 6       Boston Bruins (▲5)            1538 (▲10)
 7       New York Rangers (▲7)         1537 (▲13)
 8 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           1535 (▲4)
 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲8)     1535 (▲17)
10       Minnesota Wild (▲2)           1531 (▲6)
11       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      1529
12       St. Louis Blues (▼7)          1525 (▼15)
13       New York Islanders (▼6)       1524 (▼8)
14       Calgary Flames (▼5)           1520 (▼9)
15       Philadelphia Flyers           1515 (▼6)
16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      1512 (▲14)
16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            1512 (▲5)
18       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6)      1510 (▼15)
19       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1489 (▲14)
20       Los Angeles Kings (▲4)        1485 (▲19)
21       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          1478 (▼2)
22       New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1477 (▲12)
23       Detroit Red Wings (▼2)        1473
24       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1468
25       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4)    1459 (▼14)
26       Ottawa Senators               1447 (▼12)
27       Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1446 (▼3)
28       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1442 (▼16)
29       Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       1441 (▲4)
30       Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       1440 (▲8)
31       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           1436 (▼20)
32       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1416 (▼18)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           39% (▼4)
 2       Washington Capitals           27% (▲13)
 3       New York Rangers (▲2)         14% (▲5)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)       7% (▼4)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      6% (▼5)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins           3% (▼4)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        2%
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1% (▼3)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              41% (▼17)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           19% (▲6)
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            17% (▲6)
 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      17% (▲4)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             4% (▲1)
 6       Buffalo Sabres                1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       <1%
 7 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           27% (▲2)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       20% (▲5)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          19% (▼14)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 16% (▲2)
 5       Nashville Predators           15% (▲6)
 6       Dallas Stars                  3% (▼1)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            1% (▲1)
 8       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               44% (▼3)
 2       Calgary Flames                18% (▼8)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          17% (▲8)
 4       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            9% (▲4)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        7% (▲4)
 6       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          5% (▼1)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             1% (▼1)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1% (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           90% (▲1)
 2       Washington Capitals           85% (▲19)
 3       New York Rangers (▲2)         71% (▲13)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)       53% (▼7)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      52% (▼7)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins           38% (▼13)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        32% (▲6)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    24% (▼12)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              88% (▼5)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      71% (▲6)
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            68% (▲8)
 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      68% (▲2)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             32% (▲2)
 6       Buffalo Sabres                17% (▼4)
 7       Ottawa Senators               7% (▼7)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            5% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           79% (▲1)
 2       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          73% (▼10)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            72% (▲6)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 68% (▲5)
 5       Nashville Predators           66% (▲12)
 6       Dallas Stars                  29% (▼4)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            10% (▲1)
 8       Arizona Coyotes               2% (▼6)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               89% (▼2)
 2       Calgary Flames                73% (▼9)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          71% (▲12)
 4       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            57% (▲13)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        49% (▲15)
 6       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          40% (▼7)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             13% (▼15)
 8       Seattle Kraken                8% (▼14)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      19% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          12% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1)         12% (▼10)
 4       Washington Capitals (▲2)      11% (▲7)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           5% (▲1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲7)         5% (▲3)
 7 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲5)            4% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼5)           3% (▼3)
 9 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       3% (▲1)
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼5)          3% (▼3)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      3%
 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲8)     3% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            3% (▲1)
15 (tie) New York Islanders (▼7)       2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼7)      2% (▼1)
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲3)            1% (▲1)
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        1% (▲1)
18 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1% (▲1)
18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6)      1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           8% (▼1)
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲4)      8% (▲3)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               7% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3)         6% (▼3)
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3)            5% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           5%
 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      5% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲3)     5% (▲1)
10 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼5)           4% (▼1)
10 (tie) New York Rangers (▲4)         4% (▲1)
10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼6)          4% (▼2)
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      4%
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            4% (▲1)
15 (tie) New York Islanders (▼6)       3% (▼1)
15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      3%
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      3%
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            2%
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        2% (▲1)
18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼4)      2% (▼1)
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          2%
22 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1%
22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1%
22 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             1%
22 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1%
22 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1%
27 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲3)          <1%
27 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲3)       <1%
27 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       <1%
27 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼6)          <1% (▼1)
27 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼6)           <1% (▼1)
27 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼6)        <1% (▼1)

 

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 15

There’s only one week left in the CFL regular season, and playoff spots are mostly sorted out.  We know all of the playoff teams and where most of the games will be played; the only remaining question is who will finish 2nd and 3rd in the East, as Hamilton and Montreal are currently tied for 2nd spot with 7-6 records.  Also, there will be no cross-over this year!

In the West, Winnipeg will finish in first place, Saskatchewan in second, and Calgary third.  In the East, Toronto has clinched first, but we’re waiting for the results of this week to see who gets second.  Montreal is playing bottom-ranked Ottawa in Montreal on Friday, and Hamilton is hosting 2nd-ranked Saskatchewan on Saturday.  If both Montreal and Hamilton win, or they both lose, they end up with tied records (either 8-6 or 7-7), but Hamilton would be awarded second place based on the net aggregate points in the two games they played against each other.  Hamilton had beat Montreal 27-10 in Week 4, and Montreal won 23-20 in Week 9, so the aggregate points would be 47-30 in favour of Hamilton.

But let’s look at what happened this week!  There were four games, two on Friday and two on Saturday.  In the first game on Friday, Hamilton travelled to Toronto to face the first-place Argonauts.  Toronto easily defeated Hamilton, 31-12, and now have a 6-0 record at home.  That’s a good sign for the Argos, as they will host the East Final.  The victory clinched first place for Toronto.  Toronto quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson passed for 250 yards and a touchdown; his Hamilton counterpart, Jeremiah Masoli, passed for 326 yards but was intercepted twice.

In Friday’s late game, British Columbia hosted Calgary.  Needing a win to stay in the hunt for 2nd place in the West, which would let them host the West Semi-Final, Calgary didn’t disappoint their fans, as they defeated British Columbia 33-23.  The BC loss eliminated the Lions from playoff contention, and guaranteed Calgary a spot in the West Final.  Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell looks to be rounding into form after his injury earlier in the season, as he passed for 264 yards and three touchdowns.  In the losing cause, Lion’s QB Michel Reilly passed for 340 yards and one touchdown.

In Saturday’s early game, Winnipeg travelled to Montreal.  The Blue Bombers, the top-ranked team in the CFL, are guaranteed of winning the West Division, and so they rested a number of their starters, including quarterback Zach Collaros.  As a result, Montreal defeated Winnipeg 28-14, snapping the Bombers win streak at 9 games and putting the Alouettes in a 2nd-place tie with Hamilton in the East.  Montreal quarterback Trevor Harris passed for three touchdowns; Winnipeg 2nd-stringer Sean McGuire threw four interceptions in his first career CFL start.  With little to worry about with the passing game, Montreal was able to hold league-leading rusher William Stanback to only 65 yards.

In the final game of the week, last-place in the West Edmonton visited Mosaic Stadium to play 2nd-ranked Saskatchewan.  In a game sure to place concern in the heart of Rider fans, Saskatchewan eked out a 29-24 win over Edmonton.  The win clinched second place for the Riders, who will host the West Semi-Final in two weeks’ time.  Saskatchewan receiver Duke Williams had a big game, catching 8 passes for 146 yards and a touchdown; the other receivers combined for 99 yards.

There will be 5 games played in the final week of the season, as Edmonton will visit Hamilton on Tuesday to make up for their earlier postponed game due to COVID.  The key games will be Ottawa at Montreal on Friday and Saskatchewan at Hamilton on Saturday; these are the only games that will affect the playoff positions.

Week 15 Results

Hamilton 12  at Toronto 31
Calgary 33  at British Columbia 23
Winnipeg 14  at Montreal 28
Edmonton 24  at Saskatchewan 29

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Despite their loss to Montreal, Winnipeg retains top spot in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, with Saskatchewan remaining ranked second.  With their loss to Toronto, Hamilton drops from 3rd to 5th, and Calgary and Toronto have moved up into a tie for 3rd in the rankings.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1611 (▼15) 11-2, 1st West
2 Saskatchewan 1570 (▲6) 9-4, 2nd West
T-3 (▲2) Calgary 1536  (▲12) 7-6, 3rd West
T-3 (▲1) Toronto 1536 (▲11) 9-4, 1st East
5 (▼2) Hamilton 1527 (▼11) 7-6, T-2nd East
6 Montreal 1514 (▲15) 7-6, T-2nd East
7 British Columbia 1435 (▼11) 4-9, 4th West
8 Edmonton 1418 (▼6) 2-10, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1379 2-11, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Once again, Winnipeg is our favourite to win the Grey Cup, although we’ve dropped their chances from 40% to 37%.  Toronto made a big jump, going from 18% chance to 24%, and are now the favourites in the East to win it all.  British Columbia was eliminated from the playoffs, so of course no longer have a chance of winning it.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1611 37% (▼3)
2 (▲1) Toronto 1536 24% (▲6)
3 (▲1) Saskatchewan 1570 13% (▲1)
4 (▼2) Hamilton 1527 11% (▼7)
5 Montreal 1514 8% (▲2)
6 Calgary 1536 7% (▲2)
7 (tie) British Columbia 1435 — (▼1)
7 (tie) Edmonton 1424 —
7 (tie) Ottawa 1379 —

Our Full Predictions

All the playoff teams have been determined, but it’s still not decided who will finish second in the East and consequently host the East Semi-Final.  We’re giving Hamilton a 63% chance of finishing second.  Right now, our most likely scenario is Winnipeg playing Toronto in the Grey Cup, as each team only needs to win their respective Division Final to reach the big game.  But, victories in the Final are far from assured!  It will be interesting as we move into the playoffs in two weeks.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
11-2,
1st in West		 1611 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ 63% 37%
Toronto
9-4,
1st in East		 1536 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ 57% 24%
Saskatchewan
9-4,
2nd in West		 1570 ✔ ✔ — 62% 24% 13%
Hamilton
7-6,
T-2nd in East		 1527 ✔ 63% — 54% 23% 11%
Montreal
7-6,
T-2nd in East		 1514 ✔ 37% — 46% 19% 8%
Calgary
7-6,
3rd in West		 1536 ✔ — — 38% 13% 7%
British Columbia
4-9,
4th in West		 1435 — — — — — —
Edmonton
2-10,
5th in West		 1418 — — — — — —
Ottawa
2-11,
4th in East		 1379 — — — — — —

Week 16 Game Predictions

Tuesday: Edmonton (28%) at Toronto (71%)
Friday: Ottawa (26%) at Montreal (73%)
Friday: Edmonton (40%) at British Columbia (59%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (49%) at Hamilton (50%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (53%) at Calgary (46%)

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – November 7, 2021

Hockey playerThe NHL is in full swing now, and the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team is very confident in our predictions, as our ratings aren’t seeing the wild swings that they were having as the models calibrated themselves to this year’s teams.  Of course, as the season progresses, the ratings will continue to change to reflect current performance, but we’re liking what we’re seeing in our models now.

Carolina continues to be the top ranked team, although they did suffer their first loss of the season this week.  The premier game of the week was on Friday night, with #1 Carolina facing #2 Florida in Florida, and the Panthers thoroughly defeated the Hurricanes 5-2.  With the win, Florida closed the gap on Carolina, but not enough to take first place in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  Florida is the only team not to be defeated in regulation time this year, and are now our favourites to win the President’s Trophy, and are tied with Carolina at having the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Out west, Edmonton continues to impress, as they’ve moved into 3rd place in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  They have an identical 9-1-0 record as Carolina, and went 3-0 this week.  We’re currently giving them the best chance of any Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup, at 8%.  Connor McDavid scored a highlight reel goal on Thursday against the New York Rangers, and Leon Draisaitl leads the league in goals with 10 (tied with Washington’s Alex Ovechkin) and points with 23, one point ahead of McDavid.

Washington had a bad week, losing all three of their games this week, although one was an overtime loss to 2nd-ranked Florida.  Although it’s still early in the year, we’re now giving them only a 66% chance of making the playoffs, as they’re currently sitting in 5th place in the Metropolitan Division.  They are leading the league in overtime losses with 4 (out of 11 games), so they could quite easily turn things around.

Sneaking into the top 5 is St. Louis, who moved past Colorado, last week’s #4 team.  Although the Blues had an unimpressive week, 1-1-1 against average teams, they are 7-2-1 this season to sit in second place in the Central Division.  Minnesota, who leads that division, is only ranked 12th in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings.

Big upward movers this week were Anaheim and Tampa Bay.  Anaheim, ranked 29th last week, went 3-0-0, including a 4-1 win over St. Louis last night.  That performance saw them shoot up 9 spots to 20th in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, and a jump of 21 rating points.  Defending two-time Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay also had a good week, with 2 wins, 3-2 over the 4th-ranked Washington Capitals and 5-3 over the lowly 26th-ranked Ottawa Senators, and an overtime loss to 8th-ranked Toronto.  They gained 16 rating points and moved from 15th in our rankings all the way up to 9th.

The biggest downward moves were by the aforementioned Washington Capitals, down 16 points on the week, and the Ottawa Senators, down 20 points and 6 ranking positions to 26th.  They went 0-3-1 this week, including a 5-1 loss to bottom-ranked Chicago.

The Top 5

1. Carolina Hurricanes (1577, ▼2)

Record: 9-1-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 89% (▼1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 18% (▼3)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 1-1-0

  • November 3: Won 4-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (32th, 1432)
  • November 6: Lost 5-2 @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1572)

Next week:

  • November 9: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1529)
  • November 12: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (15th, 1521)
  • November 13: vs. St. Louis Blues (5th, 1540)

2. Florida Panthers (1572, ▲6)

Record: 10-0-1, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

Making the playoffs: 93% (▲3)

  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 22% (▲5)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

  • November 4: Won in OT 5-4 vs. Washington Capitals (4th, 1546)
  • November 6: Won 5-2 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1577)

Next week:

  • November 8: @ New York Rangers (14th, 1524)
  • November 9: @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1465)
  • November 11: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (12th, 1525)
  • November 13: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1529)

3. Edmonton Oilers ▲1 (1557, ▲10)

Record: 9-1-0, 1st in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 91% (▲6)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▲5)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • November 1: Won 5-2 vs. Seattle Kraken (28th, 1456)
  • November 3: Won 5-2 vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1498)
  • November 5: Won in OT 6-5 vs. New York Rangers (14th, 1524)

Next week:

  • November 9: @ Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1473)
  • November 11: @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1528)
  • November 12: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1449)
  • November 14: @ St. Louis Blues (5th, 1540)

4. Washington Capitals ▼1 (1546, ▼16)

Record: 5-2-4, 5th in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 66% (▼13)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼6)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▼2)

Last week: 0-2-1

  • November 1: Lost 3-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1529)
  • November 4: Lost in OT 5-4 @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1572)
  • November 6: Lost 2-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (15th, 1521)

Next week:

  • November 8: vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1449)
  • November 11: @ Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1473)
  • November 12: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (21th, 1473)
  • November 14: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (12th, 1525)

5. St. Louis Blues ▲1 (1540, ▼2)

Record: 7-2-1, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of: 

Making the playoffs: 83% (▼1)

  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼2)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 1-1-1

  • November 3: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1466)
  • November 4: Won 5-3 @ San Jose Sharks (19th, 1480)
  • November 7: Lost 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (20th, 1475)

Next week:

  • November 9: @ Winnipeg Jets (17th, 1507)
  • November 11: vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1498)
  • November 13: @ Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1577)
  • November 14: vs. Edmonton Oilers (3rd, 1557)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           1577 (▼2)
 2       Florida Panthers              1572 (▲6)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1557 (▲10)
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1546 (▼16)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1540 (▼2)
 6       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       1536 (▼11)
 7       New York Islanders (▲4)       1532 (▲8)
 8       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5)      1531 (▲13)
 9 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           1529 (▲4)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲6)      1529 (▲16)
11       Boston Bruins (▼3)            1528 (▼2)
12 (tie) Minnesota Wild                1525 (▲6)
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      1525 (▼2)
14       New York Rangers (▼7)         1524 (▼7)
15       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1521 (▲15)
16       Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)     1518
17       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1507 (▼5)
18       Nashville Predators           1498 (▲2)
19       San Jose Sharks               1480 (▼2)
20       Anaheim Ducks (▲9)            1475 (▲21)
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲5)    1473 (▲11)
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1473 (▼3)
23       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1468 (▼3)
24       Los Angeles Kings             1466
25       New Jersey Devils (▼2)        1465 (▼5)
26       Ottawa Senators (▼6)          1459 (▼20)
27       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1458
28       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           1456 (▼5)
29       Buffalo Sabres (▼4)           1449 (▼14)
30       Montreal Canadiens            1437 (▼7)
31       Arizona Coyotes               1434 (▼4)
32       Chicago Blackhawks            1432 (▼1)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           43% (▲1)
 2       Washington Capitals           14% (▼8)
 3 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       11% (▲3)
 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      11% (▲5)
 5       New York Rangers (▼2)         9% (▼3)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      7% (▲1)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets         4% (▲2)
 8       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        2%

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              58% (▲6)
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      13% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      13% (▲4)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼2)            11% (▼4)
 5       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        3% (▼1)
 6       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           2% (▼3)
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1% (▼3)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            <1% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues               33% (▼1)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           25% (▲9)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       15% (▼6)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 14%
 5       Nashville Predators           9% (▲1)
 6       Dallas Stars                  4%
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               47% (▲9)
 2       Calgary Flames                26% (▼3)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          9% (▼4)
 4       San Jose Sharks               6% (▼3)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 5% (▲2)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        3%
 7       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        2% (▼1)
 8       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           1% (▼2)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           89% (▼1)
 2       Washington Capitals           66% (▼13)
 3       New York Islanders (▲1)       60% (▲5)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      59% (▲12)
 5       New York Rangers (▼2)         58% (▼7)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      51% (▲1)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    36% (▲9)
 8       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        26% (▼3)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              93% (▲3)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      66% (▲14)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      65% (▲15)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼2)            60% (▼1)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             30% (▼3)
 6       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           21% (▼12)
 7       Ottawa Senators               14% (▼16)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            6% (▼3)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues               83% (▼1)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           78% (▲9)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       66% (▼9)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 63% (▼2)
 5       Nashville Predators           54% (▲3)
 6       Dallas Stars                  33% (▼4)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       9% (▼1)
 8       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          8% (▼3)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               91% (▲6)
 2       Calgary Flames                82% (▲2)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          59% (▼3)
 4       San Jose Sharks               47% (▼5)
 5       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            44% (▲15)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        34% (▲3)
 7       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        28%
 8       Seattle Kraken (▼2)           22% (▼7)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Florida Panthers (▲1)         22% (▲5)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      18% (▼3)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          13% (▲5)
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           6%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               6% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           4% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼3)      4% (▼6)
 8 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       3%
 8 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      3% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲4)      3% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲9)      3% (▲2)
12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3)            2% (▼1)
12 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼5)       2% (▼2)
12 (tie) New York Rangers (▼5)         2% (▼2)
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           2%
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 2%
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲6)    1% (▲1)
17 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
17 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼5)     1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           9%
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         9% (▲1)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          8% (▲2)
 4       St. Louis Blues               6%
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           5%
 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       5% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           5% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2)      5% (▼2)
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            4%
 9 (tie) New York Islanders (▲4)       4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲4)      4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲4)      4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     4%
14 (tie) New York Rangers (▼6)         3% (▼1)
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      3%
14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      3%
14 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      3%
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼6)            3% (▼1)
19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            2% (▲1)
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks               2%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         1%
21 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1%
21 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             1%
21 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators               1%
21 (tie) Seattle Kraken                1%
21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             1%
30 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
30 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
30 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%

 

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 14

CFL logoThere’s only two weeks left in the CFL regular season, but there’s still a lot up in the air heading towards the playoffs.  In the West, Winnipeg has first place locked up, Saskatchewan has clinched a playoff spot, and Edmonton has been eliminated from the playoffs, but it’s still not clear whether Calgary or British Columbia will get the last playoff spot.  In fact, Calgary still has a chance of finishing second and getting themselves a home playoff game.  In the East, Ottawa has been eliminated, and Montreal can’t win the division, but the other playoff positions are still up for grabs.

There were two games on Friday and two on Saturday this week.  In the first Friday game, British Columbia travelled to Hamilton.  The Ticats defeated the Lions, 26-18.  British Columbia scored a field goal on the first possession of the game, after a drive that used up half of the first quarter.  But Hamilton came back and also kicked a field goal on their first possession, and never trailed after that.  Hamilton quarterback Jeremiah Masoli passed for 258 yards, passing the 15,000 yard career mark and becoming only the fourth Hamilton player to do so.  In a losing cause, BC quarterback Michael Reilly went 33-for-43 for 330 yards, but it wasn’t enough.  It was BC’s sixth straight loss.

On Friday’s second game, Saskatchewan travelled to Edmonton for a late evening November ballgame on the Prairies.  But, surprisingly, it was a beautiful night for football, with the temperature above zero at the start of the game and a very light wind.  Saskatchewan beat Edmonton 19-17, their third straight road win.  With the loss, the Elks finished their home season with an unblemished 0-7 record, the first time in their history that they haven’t won a game at home.  Saskatchewan led 16-3 after the 3rd quarter, and Edmonton made it close, but Elk QB Taylor Cornelius, who ended the game with 322 passing yards, couldn’t finish the comeback.  Saskatchewan, despite being ranked 2nd in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, only scored one touchdown against the 8th-ranked Elks.  Perhaps the most exciting play of the game for the Riders was when they scored a rouge late in the 2nd quarter after a 53 yard punt into the end zone couldn’t be run out by Edmonton.  Saskatchewan was flagged for a 5 yard no yards call, but rather than not giving up the point and taking possession of the ball deep in their own end, Edmonton chose to decline the penalty and give up the single point.  And that WAS Saskatchewan’s most exciting play of the game, in the eyes of this observer.

In Saturday’s first game, Toronto defeated the hapless Ottawa RedBlacks 23-20.  Despite the close score, rookie Ottawa quarterback Devlin Hodges went 8 for 22 for a total of 90 yards, but in his part, Argo quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson threw 3 interceptions.  Ottawa must be looking forward to the end of the season, and hope to be more hapful next year.  Making the score close was Ottawa’s exciting kick returner DeVonte Dedmon, who returned 3 kickoffs for 126 yards, including a 100 yard touchdown return, and two punts for 30 yards, one of which went for 24 yards. He’s an exciting player to watch!

The final game of the weekend saw Montreal travel to Winnipeg to take on the top-ranked Blue Bombers.  The home team didn’t disappoint their fans, as Winnipeg won 31-21 over Montreal.  It was Winnipeg’s 9th straight win, and they finished their home season at 7-0.  Winnipeg quarterback Zach Collaros threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns, and Bomber running back William Stanback rushed for 106 yards, a 6.6 yards per carry average.  The game was tied 21-21 after three quarters, showing that Winnipeg can be beaten, but they shut down the Als in the fourth quarter to take the win.

On a sad note, CFL Hall of Famer Angelo Mosca died this week after a lengthy battle with Alzheimer’s disease.  He was a feared defensive lineman who won 5 Grey Cups and eventually became a professional wrestler.  His best known fight, though, may have been at a 2011 CFL Alumni gathering, when he and Joe Kapp, former BC Lions quarterback, battled over a perceived dirty hit in the 1963 Grey Cup game.  You can watch the fight on YouTube.

Week 14 Results

British Columbia 18  at Hamilton 26
Saskatchewan 19  at Edmonton 17
Toronto 23  at Ottawa 20
Montreal 21  at Winnipeg 31

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was very little change in the rankings this week.  With Calgary idle and Toronto beating Ottawa, Toronto has moved past Calgary into 4th place in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings.  Winnipeg remains on top, far ahead of second place Saskatchewan.  Despite Toronto leading the East, we still have Hamilton as the Eastern team.  Montreal has now dropped below the magical 1500 mark.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1626 (▲7) 11-1, 1st West
2 Saskatchewan 1564 (▲10) 8-4, 2nd West
3 Hamilton 1538 (▲8) 7-5, 2nd East
4 (▲1) Toronto 1525 (▲10) 8-4, 1st East
5 (▼1) Calgary 1524 6-6, 3rd West
6 Montreal 1499 (▼7) 6-6, 3rd East
7 British Columbia 1446 (▼8) 4-8, 4th West
8 Edmonton 1424 (▼10) 2-9, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1379 (▼10) 2-11, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, with them winning in 40% of our simulations.  Why only 40%, when they are clearly the strongest team in the CFL?  Well, they do have to win the games on the field, not just on paper.  As could be seen with their game this week against Montreal, they are vulnerable.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1626 40% (▲1)
2 Hamilton 1538 18% (▲1)
3 Toronto 1525 18% (▲1)
4 Saskatchewan 1564 12% (▲1)
5 Montreal 1499 6% (▼3)
6 Calgary 1524 5% (▼1)
7 British Columbia 1446 1%
8 (tie) Edmonton 1424 — (▼1)
8 (tie) Ottawa 1379 —

Our Full Predictions

Edmonton has now been eliminated from the playoffs, and Montreal can’t win the East.  British Columbia still has a chance to make the playoffs, but can’t finish higher than 3rd in the West.  Calgary could still finish second in the West, but they need to win their last two games and Saskatchewan needs to lose their last two.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
11-1
1st in West		 1626 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ 66% 40%
Hamilton
7-5
2nd in East		 1538 ✔ 92% 31% 72% 37% 18%
Toronto
8-4
1st in East		 1525 ✔ 96% 69% 87% 46% 18%
Saskatchewan
8-4
2nd in West		 1564 ✔ 97% — 63% 22% 12%
Montreal
6-6
3rd in East		 1499 ✔ 12% — 41% 16% 6%
Calgary
6-6
3rd in West		 1524 84% 3% — 32% 11% 5%
British Columbia
4-8
4th in West		 1446 16% — — 5% 1% 1%
Edmonton
2-9
5th in West		 1424 — — — — — —
Ottawa
2-11
4th in East		 1379 — — — — — —

Week 15 Game Predictions

Friday: Hamilton (45%) at Toronto (54%)
Friday: Calgary (53%) at British Columbia (46%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (60%) at Montreal (39%)
Saturday: Edmonton (25%) at Saskatchewan (74%)

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – October 31, 2021

Hockey playerWe’re three weeks into the NHL season now, and most of the uncertainty we’ve introduced into our models has worked its way out of the system, and the models are now pretty well calibrated.  We’re still seeing some big changes, but no more than we would normally expect to see in a week, so things seem pretty stable.  Of course, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty because it’s so early in the season, but we feel that our ratings are pretty accurate as to how the teams are currently playing, and as the season progresses, we’ll see more and more accurate calculations.

Carolina remains the top team in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, and it’s not a surprise, as they are the only undefeated team in the league, with a current record of 8-0-0.  That’s an amazing start!  As a result, despite them only having played about 10% of their schedule, we’re already giving them a 90% chance of making the playoffs, and a 21% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.  They are also the favourites to win the Stanley Cup, but at 9% probability, that’s far from a sure thing!  They won all four of their games this week, although two of those games were against last-ranked Chicago and second-last-ranked Arizona.  But still, 8 wins to start the season is pretty impressive!

Florida is ranked number 2, as they were last week.  They’ve had as impressive a start as Carolina, having won their first eight games.  In their ninth, though, they lost in a shootout to 8th-ranked Boston.  Their numbers aren’t far behind Carolina’s, with a 90% chance of making the playoffs (same as Carolina), a 17% chance of winning the President’s Trophy (vs. 21%), and an 8% probability of winning the Stanley Cup (vs. 9%).  They have a tough week coming up which will be a good indication of whether they’re as good as we think they are, as they play number 3 Washington on Thursday and number 1 Carolina on Saturday.  That Saturday game should be a good one!

Washington is ranked number 3, up one spot from last week.  They had two wins and an overtime loss.  They haven’t lost in regulation time yet this year, but do have three overtime losses, blemishing their otherwise spotless record at 5-0-3.

Moving back into the top 5 is Colorado, taking the number 4 spot.  They are 4-4-0 this year, good for only 5th position in the Central Division, but they seem to be starting to come into form.

Rounding out the top 5 is Edmonton, who are tied with Colorado for the number 4 spot.  They lost their first game of the year to Philadelphia, but followed that up with a win over Vancouver.  Despite their great start with a 6-1-0 record, they are only 2nd in the Pacific Division.

The reason Edmonton is only 2nd in the Pacific is because Calgary is also having a great start.  They are 6-1-1 for a one point lead over Edmonton, and had 4 wins this week.  They had the biggest move this week, picking up 33 rating points and moving up 8 spots in our rankings, to number 10.  It might be a great year for Alberta teams!

The biggest downward movement this week was Pittsburgh.  They had been number 2 last week, but after losing three games and being outscored 13-3 this week, we’ve dropped their rating by 33 points, moving them to number 9 in the rankings.  We’ll keep an eye on them to see if they can turn things around.

The Top 5

1. Carolina Hurricanes (1579, ▲20)

Record: 8-0-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 90% (▲11)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 21% (▲10)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

  • October 25: Won 4-1 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (13th, 1518)
  • October 28: Won 3-0 vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1530)
  • October 29: Won 6-3 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (32th, 1433)
  • October 31: Won 2-1 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1438)

Next week:

  • November 3: @ Chicago Blackhawks (32th, 1433)
  • November 6: @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1566)

2. Florida Panthers (1566, ▲10)

Record: 8-0-1, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 90% (▲8)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 17% (▲5)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-1

  • October 25: Won 5-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1438)
  • October 27: Won 4-1 vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1530)
  • October 29: Won in OT 3-2 @ Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1476)
  • October 30: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Boston Bruins (8th, 1530)

Next week:

  • November 4: vs. Washington Capitals (3rd, 1562)
  • November 6: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1579)

3. Washington Capitals ▲1 (1562, ▲8)

Record: 5-0-3, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 79% (▲6)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▲2)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

  • October 25: Won 7-5 @ Ottawa Senators (20th, 1479)
  • October 27: Lost in OT 3-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1476)
  • October 29: Won 2-0 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1438)

Next week:

  • November 1: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (15th, 1513)
  • November 4: @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1566)
  • November 6: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1506)

4 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲3 (1547, ▲6)

Record: 4-4-0, 5th in Central Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 75% (▲5)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 4%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

  • October 26: Lost 3-1 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1518)
  • October 28: Won 4-3 @ St. Louis Blues (6th, 1542)
  • October 30: Won 4-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (12th, 1519)

Next week:

  • November 3: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1462)
  • November 6: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1462)

4 (tie). Edmonton Oilers ▲1 (1547, ▼2)

Record: 6-1-0, 2nd in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 85% (▼1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▼2)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)

Last week: 1-1-0

  • October 27: Lost 5-3 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1506)
  • October 30: Won 2-1 @ Vancouver Canucks (28th, 1458)

Next week:

  • November 1: vs. Seattle Kraken (27th, 1461)
  • November 3: vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1496)
  • November 5: vs. New York Rangers (7th, 1531)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           1579 (▲20)
 2       Florida Panthers              1566 (▲10)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)      1562 (▲8)
 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       1547 (▲6)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1547 (▼2)
 6       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1542 (▲1)
 7       New York Rangers (▲2)         1531 (▲4)
 8       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1530 (▼12)
 9       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼7)      1527 (▼29)
10       Calgary Flames (▲8)           1525 (▲33)
11       New York Islanders            1524
12       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1519 (▼7)
13 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1518 (▼1)
13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1518 (▲7)
15       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1513 (▲7)
16       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1512 (▲14)
17       Philadelphia Flyers           1506 (▲10)
18       Nashville Predators (▲1)      1496 (▲7)
19       San Jose Sharks (▼4)          1482 (▼16)
20       Ottawa Senators (▲3)          1479 (▲2)
21       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1476 (▼2)
22       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1471 (▼16)
23       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1470 (▲1)
24       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1466 (▲2)
25       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1463 (▲1)
26       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1462 (▲2)
27       Seattle Kraken (▲3)           1461 (▲8)
28       Vancouver Canucks (▼7)        1458 (▼22)
29       Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1454 (▲2)
30       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       1444 (▼12)
31       Arizona Coyotes (▼3)          1438 (▼18)
32       Chicago Blackhawks            1433 (▼8)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           42% (▲16)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      22% (▲2)
 3       New York Rangers (▲1)         12% (▼1)
 4       New York Islanders (▲1)       8% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      6% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      6% (▼15)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    2%
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             2% (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              52% (▲12)
 2       Boston Bruins                 15% (▼9)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      10% (▲1)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      9% (▼1)
 5       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           5%
 6 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        4% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          4%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            1% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues               34% (▲1)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       21% (▲3)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           16% (▼6)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 14% (▲5)
 5       Nashville Predators (▲1)      8% (▲2)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼2)             4% (▼5)
 7       Arizona Coyotes               1% (▼1)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            <1% (▼1)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               38% (▼5)
 2       Calgary Flames (▲1)           29% (▲17)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     13% (▲4)
 4       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          9% (▼8)
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            3% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        3% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲3)           3%
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        3% (▼6)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           90% (▲11)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      79% (▲6)
 3       New York Rangers (▲1)         65% (▲3)
 4       New York Islanders (▲1)       55% (▼1)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      50% (▼24)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           47% (▲7)
 7       New Jersey Devils             29% (▼2)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets         27% (▲2)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              90% (▲8)
 2       Boston Bruins                 61% (▼9)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      52% (▲5)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      50%
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           33% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             33% (▼2)
 7       Ottawa Senators               30%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            9% (▼7)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues               84% (▲2)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       75% (▲5)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           69% (▼5)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 65% (▲13)
 5       Nashville Predators (▲1)      51% (▲9)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼2)             37% (▼15)
 7       Arizona Coyotes               11% (▼12)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            10% (▼6)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               85% (▼1)
 2       Calgary Flames (▲1)           80% (▲25)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     62% (▲12)
 4       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          52% (▼12)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        31% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            29% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           29% (▲4)
 8       Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        28% (▼20)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      21% (▲10)
 2       Florida Panthers (▼1)         17% (▲5)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲3)      10% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          8% (▼2)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               8% (▼1)
 6       Calgary Flames (▲7)           6% (▲4)
 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲2)       4%
 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         4%
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            3% (▼3)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           3% (▼2)
 9 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       3%
12 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      2% (▲1)
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼8)      2% (▼7)
12 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      2%
12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     2% (▲1)
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            2% (▲1)
17 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1%
17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1%
17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      1%
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1%
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼6)          1% (▼2)
17 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           9% (▲2)
 2       Florida Panthers (▼1)         8% (▲1)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)      7% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼3)          6% (▼1)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               6%
 7       Calgary Flames (▲5)           5% (▲2)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         4%
 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     4% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            4% (▲1)
13 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3)       3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲5)      3% (▲1)
13 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲5)      3% (▲1)
13 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼9)      3% (▼3)
13 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      3%
13 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      3%
19 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             2%
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼7)          2% (▼1)
21 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    1%
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼3)        1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1%
21 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          1%
21 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           1%
21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        1% (▼1)
30 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼7)          <1% (▼1)
30 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼7)       <1% (▼1)
30 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼7)       <1% (▼1)