Ah, the NHL season is about to start! The team at McDonald NHL Power Ratings has updated our models and run our simulations, and we’ve come up with our predictions for the upcoming season.
Be aware that things have changed from last year — players have moved, retired, or come into the league, there’s a brand new team, the division alignments are back to how they were before last year’s COVID-shortened season. As a result, we’ve added uncertainty into our models; that results in the initial ratings being lower than they might otherwise be, but they’ll eventually sort themselves out. Our experience has been that after the first 10 games, our ratings have adjusted to the new reality.
Our rankings might seem a little surprising — last year’s Stanley Cup winning Tampa Bay Lightning are ranked 11th, and we’re only giving them a 4% chance of repeating for the third time. We’ll see if they’ll prove us wrong! The other Cup finals team, Montreal, is ranked 21st, and we’re giving them just a 2% chance of winning the Cup. In fact, we’re only giving them a 41% chance of even making the playoffs! They did just barely squeak in last year, and then had an incredible run behind their star goaltender, Carey Price. But, we’ll see what happens.
The most-likely Canadian teams to win the Cup are the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers, both at 5%. We really should update our models to automatically give the Leafs no chance of winning, but maybe this is the year….
Our favourites to win the Stanley Cup this year are the Colorado Avalanche. We’re currently giving them a 7% chance of winning, closely followed by Vegas with 6%. The teams at the bottom are ABC — Anaheim, Buffalo, and Columbus (1% chance each of winning). We’re even giving the new team, the Seattle Kraken, a better chance of winning, at 2%
Anyways, here’s the rankings and ratings.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1559 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 1539 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 1539 4 Washington Capitals 1537 5 Carolina Hurricanes 1534 6 Toronto Maple Leafs 1531 7 Boston Bruins 1530 8 Florida Panthers 1528 9 Minnesota Wild 1526 10 Edmonton Oilers 1525 11 Tampa Bay Lightning 1521 12 New York Islanders 1513 13 St. Louis Blues 1510 14 New York Rangers 1509 15 Nashville Predators 1504 16 (tie) Dallas Stars 1498 16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 1498 18 Philadelphia Flyers 1490 19 Calgary Flames 1489 20 Ottawa Senators 1485 21 Montreal Canadiens 1484 22 Arizona Coyotes 1483 23 Vancouver Canucks 1475 24 Chicago Blackhawks 1474 25 Los Angeles Kings 1473 26 Detroit Red Wings 1472 27 (tie) New Jersey Devils 1471 27 (tie) San Jose Sharks 1471 29 Seattle Kraken 1469 30 Columbus Blue Jackets 1466 31 Anaheim Ducks 1458 32 Buffalo Sabres 1455
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Pittsburgh Penguins 20% 2 Washington Capitals 19% 3 Carolina Hurricanes 18% 4 New York Islanders 13% 5 New York Rangers 12% 6 Philadelphia Flyers 8% 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets 5% 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils 5%
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Boston Bruins 19% 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 19% 3 Florida Panthers 18% 4 Tampa Bay Lightning 16% 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens 8% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators 8% 7 Detroit Red Wings 6% 8 Buffalo Sabres 4%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 28% 2 Minnesota Wild 17% 3 St. Louis Blues 12% 4 Nashville Predators 11% 5 (tie) Dallas Stars 10% 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 10% 7 Arizona Coyotes 7% 8 Chicago Blackhawks 6%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 27% 2 Edmonton Oilers 22% 3 Calgary Flames 12% 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 9% 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks 9% 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks 8% 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken 8% 8 Anaheim Ducks 6%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Pittsburgh Penguins 66% 2 Washington Capitals 65% 3 Carolina Hurricanes 63% 4 New York Islanders 55% 5 New York Rangers 52% 6 Philadelphia Flyers 42% 7 New Jersey Devils 34% 8 Columbus Blue Jackets 32%
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Boston Bruins 63% 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 63% 3 Florida Panthers 61% 4 Tampa Bay Lightning 58% 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens 41% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators 41% 7 Detroit Red Wings 36% 8 Buffalo Sabres 28%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 76% 2 Minnesota Wild 63% 3 St. Louis Blues 55% 4 Nashville Predators 52% 5 (tie) Dallas Stars 49% 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 49% 7 Arizona Coyotes 42% 8 Chicago Blackhawks 38%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 70% 2 Edmonton Oilers 65% 3 Calgary Flames 48% 4 Vancouver Canucks 41% 5 Los Angeles Kings 40% 6 San Jose Sharks 39% 7 Seattle Kraken 38% 8 Anaheim Ducks 34%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 10% 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 6% 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 6% 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 6% 2 (tie) Washington Capitals 6% 6 (tie) Boston Bruins 5% 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers 5% 6 (tie) Florida Panthers 5% 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild 5% 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 5% 11 (tie) New York Islanders 4% 11 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 4% 13 (tie) New York Rangers 3% 13 (tie) Nashville Predators 3% 13 (tie) St. Louis Blues 3% 16 (tie) Arizona Coyotes 2% 16 (tie) Calgary Flames 2% 16 (tie) Dallas Stars 2% 16 (tie) Montreal Canadiens 2% 16 (tie) Ottawa Senators 2% 16 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers 2% 16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 2% 23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks 1% 23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres 1% 23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks 1% 23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets 1% 23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings 1% 23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 1% 23 (tie) New Jersey Devils 1% 23 (tie) San Jose Sharks 1% 23 (tie) Seattle Kraken 1% 23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks 1%
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 7% 2 Vegas Golden Knights 6% 3 (tie) Boston Bruins 5% 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 5% 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers 5% 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 5% 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 5% 3 (tie) Washington Capitals 5% 9 (tie) Florida Panthers 4% 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild 4% 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 4% 12 (tie) Dallas Stars 3% 12 (tie) New York Islanders 3% 12 (tie) New York Rangers 3% 12 (tie) Nashville Predators 3% 12 (tie) St. Louis Blues 3% 12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 3% 18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes 2% 18 (tie) Calgary Flames 2% 18 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks 2% 18 (tie) Detroit Red Wings 2% 18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 2% 18 (tie) Montreal Canadiens 2% 18 (tie) New Jersey Devils 2% 18 (tie) Ottawa Senators 2% 18 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers 2% 18 (tie) San Jose Sharks 2% 18 (tie) Seattle Kraken 2% 18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks 2% 30 (tie) Anaheim Ducks 1% 30 (tie) Buffalo Sabres 1% 30 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets 1%