The NHL season has started! The first game of the season was last Tuesday, and saw Pittsburgh defeat the defending Stanley Cup champions Tampa Bay. That day also saw the newest team in the league, the Seattle Kraken, play their first game — they lost, 4-3, to Vegas. The next night saw the classic Canadian match-up, with Toronto beating Montreal 2-1. As usual, this meant Toronto continued to be first overall in the NHL — we’ll see how long that lasts!
We introduced uncertainty into our McDonald NHL Power Ratings models, and as a result, there have been a lot of changes to the ratings as the models calibrate themselves. We expect things to settle down with accurate ratings after the teams have played about 10 games, so that should be in a couple of weeks.
Despite the uncertainty, our top 5 rated teams almost stayed the same as last week. Colorado retains the number one ranking, having a win and a loss this week, and Pittsburgh stays in the second spot, after having two wins and one overtime loss. Carolina has now moved into third spot, up two from last week, with two wins. Washington, who was ranked fourth in the preseason, is still in fourth, having one win and one OTL. Rounding out the top 5 is Minnesota, who won both of their games this week, and moved up from 9th spot in our preseason rankings. Dropping out of the top 5 was Vegas, who were tied with Pittsburgh at number two last week, but have dropped four spots to 6th, putting them in a tie with Boston. Vegas had a win and a loss last week.
How about the two Stanley Cup finalists from last year? Tampa Bay, last year’s champions, are currently ranked 12th, after losing their opener to Pittsburgh, but winning their next two in overtime against Detroit and Washington. The runner up, Montreal, is ranked 30th out of 32 teams, having started the season with three straight losses. Despite the uncertainty in our models, we’re still only giving Montreal a 22% chance of making the playoffs.
The Top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1555, ▼4)
Record: 1-1-0, 3rd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 76%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▼3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%
Last week: 1-1-0
- October 13: Won 4-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (29th, 1465)
- October 16: Lost 5-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (11th, 1519)
Next week:
- October 19: @ Washington Capitals (4th, 1542)
- October 21: @ Florida Panthers (9th, 1534)
- October 23: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (12th, 1514)
2. Pittsburgh Penguins (1552, ▲13)
Record: 2-0-1, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 73% (▲7)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▲3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-1
- October 12: Won 6-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (12th, 1514)
- October 14: Lost in OT 5-4 @ Florida Panthers (9th, 1534)
- October 16: Won 5-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (29th, 1465)
Next week:
- October 19: vs. Dallas Stars (18th, 1486)
- October 23: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (8th, 1535)
3. Carolina Hurricanes ▲2 (1547, ▲13)
Record: 2-0-0, 3rd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 72% (▲9)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-0
- October 14: Won 6-3 vs. New York Islanders (14th, 1501)
- October 16: Won 3-2 @ Nashville Predators (17th, 1488)
Next week:
- October 21: @ Montreal Canadiens (30th, 1463)
- October 23: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1472)
4. Washington Capitals (1542, ▲5)
Record: 1-0-1, 4th in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 67% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 6%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 5%
Last week: 1-0-1
- October 13: Won 5-1 vs. New York Rangers (13th, 1510)
- October 16: Lost in OT 2-1 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (12th, 1514)
Next week:
- October 19: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1555)
- October 21: @ New Jersey Devils (28th, 1470)
- October 23: vs. Calgary Flames (20th, 1483)
5. Minnesota Wild ▲4 (1540, ▲14)
Record: 2-0-0, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 76% (▲13)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲2)
Last week: 2-0-0
- October 15: Won 2-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (32nd, 1459)
- October 16: Won 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1474)
Next week:
- October 19: vs. Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1484)
- October 23: vs. Anaheim Ducks (32nd, 1459)
- October 24: vs. Nashville Predators (17th, 1488)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from our preseason report.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1555 (▼4) 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 1552 (▲13) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▲2) 1547 (▲13) 4 Washington Capitals 1542 (▲5) 5 Minnesota Wild (▲4) 1540 (▲14) 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1) 1536 (▲6) 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼4) 1536 (▼3) 8 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2) 1535 (▲4) 9 Florida Panthers (▼1) 1534 (▲6) 10 Edmonton Oilers 1529 (▲4) 11 St. Louis Blues (▲2) 1519 (▲9) 12 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 1514 (▼7) 13 New York Rangers (▲1) 1510 (▲1) 14 New York Islanders (▼2) 1501 (▼12) 15 Ottawa Senators (▲5) 1494 (▲9) 16 Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) 1489 (▼1) 17 Nashville Predators (▼2) 1488 (▼16) 18 Dallas Stars (▼2) 1486 (▼12) 19 Winnipeg Jets (▼3) 1484 (▼14) 20 Calgary Flames (▼1) 1483 (▼6) 21 Detroit Red Wings (▲5) 1479 (▲7) 22 San Jose Sharks (▲5) 1478 (▲7) 23 Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 1477 (▼6) 24 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 1474 (▲1) 24 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲5) 1474 (▲5) 26 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲4) 1472 (▲6) 27 Vancouver Canucks (▼4) 1471 (▼4) 28 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 1470 (▼1) 29 Chicago Blackhawks (▼5) 1465 (▼9) 30 Montreal Canadiens (▼9) 1463 (▼21) 31 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 1461 (▲6) 32 Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 1459 (▲1)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Pittsburgh Penguins 25% (▲5) 2 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 24% (▲6) 3 Washington Capitals (▼1) 19% 4 New York Rangers (▲1) 9% (▼3) 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) 6% (▲1) 5 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1) 6% (▼7) 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 6% (▼2) 8 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 5%
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers (▲2) 22% (▲4) 2 Boston Bruins (▼1) 21% (▲2) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2) 19% 4 Tampa Bay Lightning 14% (▼2) 5 Ottawa Senators 9% (▲1) 6 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 7% (▲1) 7 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 5% (▲1) 8 Montreal Canadiens (▼3) 3% (▼5)
Central Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche 27% (▼1) 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1) 27% (▲10) 3 St. Louis Blues 18% (▲6) 4 Dallas Stars (▲1) 7% (▼3) 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2) 6% (▼1) 5 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) 6% (▼5) 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 6% (▼4) 8 Chicago Blackhawks 4% (▼2)
Pacific Division
1 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 27% (▲5) 2 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 24% (▼3) 3 San Jose Sharks (▲3) 10% (▲2) 4 Calgary Flames (▼1) 9% (▼3) 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 8% (▼1) 5 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) 8% 7 Vancouver Canucks (▼3) 7% (▼2) 8 Anaheim Ducks 6%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Pittsburgh Penguins 73% (▲7) 2 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 72% (▲9) 3 Washington Capitals (▼1) 67% (▲2) 4 New York Rangers (▲1) 49% (▼3) 5 New York Islanders (▼1) 40% (▼15) 6 Philadelphia Flyers 39% (▼3) 7 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 37% (▲5) 8 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 33% (▼1)
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers (▲2) 67% (▲6) 2 Boston Bruins (▼1) 66% (▲3) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2) 64% (▲1) 4 Tampa Bay Lightning 55% (▼3) 5 Ottawa Senators 45% (▲4) 6 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 38% (▲2) 7 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 33% (▲5) 8 Montreal Canadiens (▼3) 22% (▼19)
Central Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche 76% 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1) 76% (▲13) 3 St. Louis Blues 66% (▲11) 4 Dallas Stars (▲1) 44% (▼5) 5 Nashville Predators (▼1) 40% (▼12) 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) 39% (▼3) 6 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 39% (▼10) 8 Chicago Blackhawks 31% (▼7)
Pacific Division
1 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 72% (▲7) 2 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 70% 3 San Jose Sharks (▲3) 47% (▲8) 4 Calgary Flames (▼1) 44% (▼4) 5 Seattle Kraken (▲2) 42% (▲4) 6 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 41% (▲1) 7 Vancouver Canucks (▼3) 40% (▼1) 8 Anaheim Ducks 35% (▲1)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 9% (▲3) 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 8% (▲2) 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲4) 8% (▲3) 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼3) 7% (▼3) 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2) 7% (▲2) 6 (tie) Boston Bruins 6% (▲1) 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers 6% (▲1) 6 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼4) 6% 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4) 5% (▲2) 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼3) 5% 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼7) 5% (▼1) 12 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) 3% 12 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 3% (▼1) 14 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3) 2% (▼2) 14 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2) 2% 14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) 2% 14 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲9) 2% (▲1) 18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲5) 1% 18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼2) 1% (▼1) 18 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲5) 1% 18 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2) 1% (▼1) 18 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲5) 1% 18 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲5) 1% 18 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2) 1% (▼1) 18 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲5) 1% 18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲5) 1% 18 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼5) 1% (▼2) 18 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲5) 1% 18 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲5) 1% 18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲5) 1% 18 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2) 1% (▼1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 7% 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 6% (▲1) 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲7) 6% (▲2) 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 6% (▲1) 5 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2) 5% 5 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼2) 5% 5 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4) 5% (▲1) 5 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2) 5% 5 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼3) 5% (▼1) 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2) 5% 11 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 4% (▲1) 12 (tie) New York Rangers 3% 12 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3) 3% (▼1) 14 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲4) 2% 14 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲4) 2% 14 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲16) 2% (▲1) 14 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2) 2% (▼1) 14 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲4) 2% 14 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲4) 2% 14 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2) 2% (▼1) 14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼2) 2% (▼1) 14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲4) 2% 14 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲4) 2% 14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4) 2% 14 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲4) 2% 14 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲4) 2% 14 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲4) 2% 14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2) 2% (▼1) 29 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 1% 29 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 1% 29 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼11) 1% (▼1) 29 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼11) 1% (▼1)