We’re two weeks into the season now, and we’re still seeing lots of changes in the ratings, as our models continue to calibrate themselves. We’ve got a new top team, and two new teams in the top 5.
Carolina has now taken over top spot in our rankings. They had two wins, both against weaker teams (Montreal ranked 28th, and Columbus ranked 27th), but now have a 4-0-0 record. Next week will be a test for them, as they start the week with games against Toronto (ranked 12th) and Boston (6th).
Pittsburgh remains in second place in our rankings, but now they’ve got company, as Florida made a big move to move into the second place tie. Pittsburgh went 1-0-1, with a big 7-1 win over Toronto and a shootout loss to Dallas. They now have a 3-0-2 record. Florida had a strong week with 3 wins, beating Tampa Bay, Colorado, and Philadelphia. They are now 5-0-0, and are currently our favourites to win the President’s Trophy, with them taking it in 12% of our simulations.
Washington stays in fourth place in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, after going 2-0-1 this week. They beat Colorado and New Jersey, and lost in overtime to Calgary.
New to the top 5 is Edmonton. They won all three of their games this week, defeating lowly Anaheim (31st) and Arizona (28th), but also beat Vegas (13th). They are also 5-0-0, and are currently the most-likely Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup, winning it all in 7% of our simulations, which is the same as both Carolina and Florida.
Other big movers this week included the New York Islanders, up 23 rating points to 11th after going 3-0-1, and St. Louis, up 22 points to 7th after notching 3 wins this week. On the downside, Vegas dropped 25 points and Chicago dropped 24. Chicago is now the lowest-ranked team in the league.
The Top 5
1. Carolina Hurricanes ▲2 (1559, ▲12)
Record: 4-0-0, 2nd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 79% (▲8)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-0
- October 21: Won 4-1 @ Montreal Canadiens (28th, 1456)
- October 23: Won 5-1 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1460)
Next week:
- October 25: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (12th, 1519)
- October 28: vs. Boston Bruins (6th, 1542)
- October 29: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (32nd, 1441)
- October 31: vs. Arizona Coyotes (28th, 1456)
2 (tie). Florida Panthers ▲6 (1556, ▲22)
Record: 5-0-0, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 82% (▲15)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 12% (▲6)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-0
- October 19: Won 4-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (14th, 1506)
- October 21: Won 4-1 vs. Colorado Avalanche (7th, 1541)
- October 23: Won 4-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1496)
Next week:
- October 25: vs. Arizona Coyotes (28th, 1456)
- October 27: vs. Boston Bruins (6th, 1542)
- October 29: @ Detroit Red Wings (22nd, 1478)
- October 30: @ Boston Bruins (6th, 1542)
2 (tie). Pittsburgh Penguins (1556, ▲4)
Record: 3-0-2, 3rd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 74% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 9%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%
Last week: 1-0-1
- October 19: Lost in SO 2-1 vs. Dallas Stars (20th, 1487)
- October 23: Won 7-1 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (12th, 1519)
Next week:
- October 26: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (14th, 1506)
- October 28: vs. Calgary Flames (18th, 1492)
- October 30: vs. New Jersey Devils (24th, 1469)
4. Washington Capitals (1554, ▲12)
Record: 3-0-2, 4th in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 73% (▲7)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-1
- October 19: Won 6-3 vs. Colorado Avalanche (7th, 1541)
- October 21: Won 4-1 @ New Jersey Devils (24th, 1469)
- October 23: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Calgary Flames (18th, 1492)
Next week:
- October 25: @ Ottawa Senators (23rd, 1477)
- October 27: vs. Detroit Red Wings (22nd, 1478)
- October 29: vs. Arizona Coyotes (28th, 1456)
5. Edmonton Oilers ▲5 (1549, ▲20)
Record: 5-0-0, 1st in Pacific Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 86% (▲14)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▲4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-0
- October 19: Won 6-5 vs. Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1452)
- October 21: Won 5-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (28th, 1456)
- October 22: Won 5-3 @ Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1511)
Next week:
- October 27: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1496)
- October 30: @ Vancouver Canucks (21st, 1480)
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Carolina Hurricanes (▲2) 1559 (▲12) 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲7) 1556 (▲22) 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 1556 (▲4) 4 Washington Capitals 1554 (▲12) 5 Edmonton Oilers (▲5) 1549 (▲20) 6 Boston Bruins 1542 (▲6) 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼6) 1541 (▼14) 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4) 1541 (▲22) 9 New York Rangers (▲4) 1527 (▲17) 10 Minnesota Wild (▼5) 1526 (▼14) 11 New York Islanders (▲3) 1524 (▲23) 12 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4) 1519 (▼16) 13 Vegas Golden Knights (▼7) 1511 (▼25) 14 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2) 1506 (▼8) 15 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲7) 1498 (▲20) 15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4) 1498 (▲14) 17 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 1496 (▲7) 18 Calgary Flames (▲2) 1492 (▲9) 19 Nashville Predators (▼2) 1489 (▲1) 20 Dallas Stars (▼2) 1487 (▲1) 21 Vancouver Canucks (▲6) 1480 (▲9) 22 Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 1478 (▼1) 23 Ottawa Senators (▼8) 1477 (▼17) 24 New Jersey Devils (▲4) 1469 (▼1) 25 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 1464 (▼10) 26 Buffalo Sabres (▲5) 1462 (▲1) 27 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 1460 (▼12) 28 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼5) 1456 (▼21) 28 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2) 1456 (▼7) 30 Seattle Kraken (▼6) 1453 (▼21) 31 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 1452 (▼7) 32 Chicago Blackhawks (▼3) 1441 (▼24)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 26% (▲2) 2 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 21% (▼4) 3 Washington Capitals 20% (▲1) 4 New York Rangers 13% (▲4) 5 New York Islanders 10% (▲4) 6 Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 5% (▼1) 7 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 3% (▼2) 8 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼3) 2% (▼4)
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 40% (▲18) 2 Boston Bruins 24% (▲3) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 10% (▼9) 4 Tampa Bay Lightning 9% (▼5) 5 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 6% (▼1) 6 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 5% 7 Ottawa Senators (▼2) 4% (▼5) 8 Montreal Canadiens 2% (▼1)
Central Division
1 St. Louis Blues (▲2) 33% (▲15) 2 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 22% (▼5) 3 Colorado Avalanche (▼2) 18% (▼9) 4 (tie) Dallas Stars 9% (▲2) 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 9% (▲3) 6 Nashville Predators (▼1) 6% 7 Arizona Coyotes (▼2) 2% (▼4) 8 Chicago Blackhawks 1% (▼3)
Pacific Division
1 Edmonton Oilers 43% (▲16) 2 San Jose Sharks (▲1) 17% (▲7) 3 Calgary Flames (▲1) 12% (▲3) 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲3) 9% (▲2) 4 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2) 9% (▼15) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2) 4% (▼2) 6 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 4% (▼4) 8 Seattle Kraken (▼3) 3% (▼5)
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 79% (▲7) 2 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 74% (▲1) 3 Washington Capitals 73% (▲6) 4 New York Rangers 62% (▲13) 5 New York Islanders 56% (▲16) 6 Philadelphia Flyers 40% (▲1) 7 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 31% (▼2) 8 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 25% (▼12)
Atlantic Division
1 Florida Panthers 82% (▲15) 2 Boston Bruins 70% (▲4) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 50% (▼14) 4 Tampa Bay Lightning 47% (▼8) 5 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 35% (▼3) 6 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 31% (▼2) 7 Ottawa Senators (▼2) 30% (▼15) 8 Montreal Canadiens 16% (▼6)
Central Division
1 St. Louis Blues (▲2) 82% (▲16) 2 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 74% (▼2) 3 Colorado Avalanche (▼2) 70% (▼6) 4 (tie) Dallas Stars 52% (▲8) 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2) 52% (▲13) 6 Nashville Predators (▼1) 42% (▲2) 7 Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 23% (▼16) 8 Chicago Blackhawks 16% (▼15)
Pacific Division
1 Edmonton Oilers 86% (▲14) 2 San Jose Sharks (▲1) 64% (▲17) 3 Calgary Flames (▲1) 55% (▲11) 4 Vegas Golden Knights (▼2) 50% (▼20) 5 Vancouver Canucks (▲2) 48% (▲8) 6 Los Angeles Kings 32% (▼9) 7 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 30% (▼5) 8 Seattle Kraken (▼3) 25% (▼17)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Florida Panthers (▲3) 12% (▲5) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 11% (▲3) 3 Edmonton Oilers (▲3) 10% (▲4) 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3) 9% 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5) 9% (▲4) 6 Washington Capitals 8% (▲2) 7 Boston Bruins (▼1) 6% 8 Minnesota Wild (▼6) 5% (▼3) 9 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼5) 4% (▼3) 9 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3) 4% (▲1) 11 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3) 3% (▲1) 11 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲3) 3% (▲1) 13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲5) 2% (▲1) 13 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 2% (▼1) 13 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4) 2% (▼3) 16 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 1% 16 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) 1% 16 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲2) 1% 16 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2) 1% 16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2) 1% 16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2) 1% 16 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼2) 1% (▼1) 16 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼2) 1% (▼1) 16 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2) 1% 16 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼7) 1% (▼4) 16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2) 1%
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 7% (▲1) 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲4) 7% (▲2) 1 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4) 7% (▲2) 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2) 6% 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲7) 6% (▲2) 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) 6% (▲1) 7 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2) 5% 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼6) 5% (▼2) 7 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼5) 5% (▼1) 10 (tie) New York Islanders (▲4) 4% (▲2) 10 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2) 4% (▲1) 12 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2) 3% (▲1) 12 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2) 3% (▲1) 12 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 3% 12 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼7) 3% (▼2) 12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼7) 3% (▼2) 12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2) 3% (▲1) 18 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼4) 2% 18 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4) 2% 18 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼4) 2% 18 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼4) 2% 18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼4) 2% 23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲6) 1% 23 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼9) 1% (▼1) 23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲6) 1% 23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲6) 1% 23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼9) 1% (▼1) 23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼9) 1% (▼1) 23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲6) 1% 23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼9) 1% (▼1) 23 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼9) 1% (▼1) 23 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼9) 1% (▼1)