McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 12

This week saw a return to a typical 4 game weekend.  The first game was Friday night, featuring the top two teams in the East, Toronto (1st place with a 6-3 record) visiting Montreal (2nd place with a 5-4 record).  Both teams were riding 3 game winning streaks coming into this game, but it was Montreal prevailing with a convincing 37-16 over Toronto.  The star of the game was Alouettes’ running back William Stanback, who rushed for 203 yards and one touchdown.  Although Toronto quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson was 24-for-38 for 268 yards, he didn’t throw any touchdowns and was picked off four times.  The teams are now tied atop the East with identical 6-4 records.

On a triple-header Saturday, there were two blowouts and one close game.  In the first game of the day, Hamilton hosted bottom-dwelling Ottawa, and they weren’t good hosts, as Hamilton thumped Ottawa 32-3.  Hamilton quarterback Jeremiah Masoli threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns, while backup quarterback Dane Evans, used in short-yardage situations, added a couple more rushing touchdowns.  The game was 0-0 after one quarter, but Hamilton got rolling from there.

The second game of the day resulted in the second blowout of the day, as Winnipeg also were lousy hosts, destroying British Columbia 45-0.  With the win, Winnipeg clinches first place in the West Division.  The Blue Bombers took the lead 15-0 after the first quarter with two touchdowns and a rouge (arguably the most exciting play in Canadian football), and added another rouge in the second quarter.  And on the last play of the game, not satisfied with a 44-0 lead, they added yet another rouge to finish off the scoring!  Quarterback Zach Collaros threw for three touchdowns in the victory.

The third game of the day featured two teams seemingly headed in opposite directions.  Home team Calgary were on a 3 game winning streak, while Saskatchewan had lost their last 2 games, both to Calgary.  But, both of those Saskatchewan / Calgary games were close, with the Stampeders winning on the last play of the game in the previous one, and the Riders getting picked off on the last play of the game while trying to take the lead the week before that.  This was another close on, as Saskatchewan defeated Calgary 20-17.  Rider quarterback Cody Fajardo completed 21 of 26 passes, including two second-half touchdowns, to lead them to victory.  In a losing cause, Stampeders quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell passed Henry Burris as the all-time Calgary completions leader, completing 21 passes for 311 yards.  With these two teams the most likely to face each other in the Western Semi-Final, it should make for an exciting game!

Week 12 Results

Toronto 16  at Montreal 37
Ottawa 3  at Hamilton 32
British Columbia 0  at Winnipeg 45
Saskatchewan 20  at Calgary 17

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg, who clinched first place in the West Division this week, remains at the top of our rankings.  With their road win over Calgary, Saskatchewan has moved back into 2nd spot.  With Montreal’s win over Toronto, Montreal moved into 3rd, while Toronto dropped back down to 6th.  Note, though, that Montreal, Hamilton, and Calgary are separated by only 5 rating points, so really, it’s a little too close to say who is actually the better team among those three.  Ottawa has dropped below the 1400 mark, which marks a really bad team.  Let’s hope they can turn things around.

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, at 41% probability!  With their win over Toronto, Montreal now moves up into 2nd with a 15% chance, dropping Toronto to 3rd (14%).  Ottawa has been eliminated from the playoffs.  Despite being ranked 2nd in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings, Saskatchewan only has a 10% chance of winning; that’s the problem of being in the same division as the powerful Blue Bombers.  But, anything can happen in the playoffs!

Our Full Predictions

Winnipeg has clinched the West Division, while Ottawa has been eliminated from the playoffs.  Why haven’t the other three Eastern teams clinched playoff spots?  It’s because Western teams still have a chance to make the cross-over, although it’s a slim chance.

Week 13 Game Predictions

Friday: Calgary (58%) at Ottawa (41%)
Friday: Hamilton (52%) at Edmonton (47%)
Saturday: British Columbia (37%) at Toronto (62%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (46%) at Montreal (53%)