Day: October 22, 2021

It was a little slower week in the CFL, with only three games, as opposed to last week’s 5 games.  In Friday night’s game, the West’s top team, Winnipeg, visited last-in-the-West Edmonton.  In a closer game than expected, Winnipeg beat Edmonton 26-16.  The game was tied at 16 after three quarters, but Winnipeg put another touchdown and a field goal on the board, while their defense shut out Edmonton — Winnipeg hasn’t given up a touchdown in the fourth quarter yet this season!  Winnipeg is now 9-1, their best start since 1960.

There were two games on Saturday.  In the first, Montreal defeated lowly Ottawa 27-16.  Matthew Shiltz, Montreal’s quarterback, threw for 281 yards in his first start of the season.  Montreal’s defense recorded 10 (yes, 10!!!) sacks in the game.  With the score at 25-13 in Montreal’s favour at the half, there were only 5 more points scored in the second half, three on a field goal for Ottawa in the 3rd quarter, and 2 for Montreal on a safety in the fourth.

In the last game of the week, Calgary powered past British Columbia, 39-10.  This was Calgary’s third straight win, and moved them into 2nd place in the West, tied with Saskatchewan, although the Riders do have a game in hand.  British Columbia has lost three straight, all at home, and have now dropped out of a playoff spot.  Things don’t look much better for them coming up, as they head to Winnipeg next week, while Calgary will host Saskatchewan; that will be Saskatchewan’s third game in a row against Calgary, as they had a bye this week.

Week 11 Results

Winnipeg 26  at Edmonton 16
Montreal 27  at Ottawa 16
Calgary 39  at British Columbia 10

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg remains on top of the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, with a season-high rating of 1613, far ahead of any other team.  But, this is the CFL, and anything can happen!  With their win, Calgary moved up to 2nd spot, pushing Saskatchewan down into 3rd, although they are only 2 rating points ahead of the Riders.  With Montreal’s win, there are now 6 teams with higher than a 1500 rating.  Ottawa continues to dwell in the cellar.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1613 (▲9)	9-1, 1st West
2 (▲2)	Calgary	1528 (▲13)	5-5, T-2nd West
3 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1526	5-4, T-2nd West
4 (▼1)	Toronto	1517	6-3, 1st East
5	Hamilton	1511	4-5, 3rd East
6	Montreal	1508 (▲12)	5-4, 2nd East
7	British Columbia	1469 (▼13)	4-5, 4th West
8	Edmonton	1446 (▼9)	2-7, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1406 (▼11)	2-8, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg is just so much better than any other team in the league this year.  Based on that, we’re now giving them a 40% chance of winning the Grey Cup.  Toronto continues to be the top team in the East, but with only an 18% chance of winning.  Edmonton and Ottawa now have less than a 1% chance of winning, but they’re not completely eliminated yet!

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1613	40% (▲1)
2	Toronto	1517	18% (▲1)
3 (▲1)	Montreal	1508	12% (▲2)
4 (▼1)	Hamilton	1511	12%
5	Saskatchewan	1526	8% (▼1)
6	Calgary	1528	8% (▲2)
7	British Columbia	1469	2% (▼2)
8	Edmonton	1446	<1% (▼1)
9	Ottawa	1406	<1%

Our Full Predictions

According to our calculations, Winnipeg is guaranteed at least 2nd place in the West, so they will definitely be hosting a playoff game.  In fact, we’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of winning the Western Division!  British Columbia, Edmonton, and Ottawa are unable to win their divisions, but they all still have a chance of making the playoffs, although we’re only giving Ottawa a 1% chance of that happening.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 9-1, 1st in West	1613	✔	✔	>99%	>99%	66%	40%
Toronto 6-3, 1st in East	1517	99%	89%	67%	83%	45%	18%
Montreal 5-4, 2nd in East	1508	95%	63%	21%	58%	28%	12%
Hamilton 4-5 3rd in East	1511	84%	48%	12%	50%	23%	12%
Saskatchewan 5-4, T-2nd in West	1526	89%	47%	<1%	46%	16%	8%
Calgary 5-5, T-2nd in West	1528	82%	45%	<1%	43%	15%	8%
British Columbia 4-5, 4th in West	1469	43%	8%	—	17%	6%	2%
Edmonton 2-7, 5th in West	1446	7%	1%	—	3%	1%	<1%
Ottawa 2-8, 4th in East	1406	1%	<1%	—	<1%	<1%	<1%

Week 12 Game Predictions

Friday: Toronto (44%) at Montreal (55%)
Saturday: Ottawa (29%) at Hamilton (70%)
Saturday: British Columbia (25%) at Winnipeg (74%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (43%) at Calgary (56%)

 

I’ve been away from my computer for a few weeks, so I’m a little behind on my CFL Power Ratings.  But, in the interests of maintaining consistency, I’m catching up with all the reports.  Anyways, here goes…

It was a busy Thanksgiving weekend for football in the CFL, with 5 games played — in a 9 team league!  In fact, British Columbia even had a bye week!  Both Ottawa and Toronto played twice, but spaced out with playing each other on Wednesday, then playing other teams on Monday.

In the Wednesday night game, Toronto scored 27 points in the third quarter to easily defeat Ottawa 35-16.  Although that improved their record to only 5-3, Toronto is 4-0 at home this year.  Ottawa led 9-8 at the half, but Toronto’s strong third quarter, which included a couple of pick-sixes by their defense, put the game away for the home team.  Ottawa rookie quarterback went 23-for-41 for 334 yards, but was intercepted three times.

Friday’s game saw first-place in the West Winnipeg host last-place in the West Edmonton.  The result was as expected, as Winnipeg dominated Edmonton 30-3.  Winnipeg is now 8-1, having won their last 6 games in a row, and are 5-0 at home.  Winnipeg scored 3 safeties in the game, and were led on offense by Andrew Harris, who rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns.

Saturday’s game had Saskatchewan looking for revenge, as they hosted Calgary after losing a close game in Calgary last week.  They were disappointed, as Calgary defeated Saskatchewan 22-19 on a 44-yard field goal as time expired.  Calgary scored their only touchdown of the game on their very first play from scrimmage, a 71 yard pass.  All the rest of their scoring came on Rene Paredes’ 5  field goals.  Saskatchewan also scored only one touchdown.  Bo Levi Mitchell passed for 296 yards and Ka’Deem Carey rushed for another 109 in the winning effort.

There were two games on Thanksgiving Monday.  In the first, Montreal scored a touchdown with 42 seconds left in the contest to defeat Ottawa 20-16.  Montreal’s quarterback, Vernon Adams Jr., was injured with just over two minutes left, but backup Matthew Shiltz came in and completed Adams’ drive to give Montreal the victory.  Ottawa sacked Adams six times in the game, but Cameron Artis-Payne’s ground game, 122 yards on 21 carries in his first CFL start, carried the Alouettes to victory.

The last game of the weekend, played while most of the country was eating turkey or napping, saw Toronto defeat Hamilton 24-23.  Both quarterbacks had big games, with Toronto’s Mclead Bethel-Thompson passing for 388 yards and two touchdowns and Hamilton’s Jeremiah Masoli passing for 361 yards and his own pair of touchdowns.  Toronto scored 19 points in the fourth quarter, to Hamilton’s 10, including the game-winning 51 yard field goal from Boris Bede.

Week 10 Results

Ottawa 16  at Toronto 35
Edmonton 3  at Winnipeg 30
Calgary 22  at Saskatchewan 19
Ottawa 16  at Montreal 20
Toronto 24  at Hamilton 23

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

With their two wins in the week, Toronto made a big move up in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, now ranking 3rd.  Winnipeg continues to lead the rankings, with Saskatchewan far behind in second.  Despite staying in second place, Saskatchewan has lost 29 points in the last two weeks, following back-to-back losses to Calgary.  The race for second place in the West has become a lot closer, with Calgary only a game back of Saskatchewan.  Interesting to note, 5 teams are above a 1500 rating, the first time that has happened this season.  Ottawa continues to trail in the rankings.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1604 (▲7)	8-1, 1st West
2	Saskatchewan	1526 (▼16)	5-4, 2nd West
3	Toronto (▲2)	1517 (▲24)	6-3, 1st East
4	Calgary	1515 (▲16)	4-5, T-3rd West
5	Hamilton (▼2)	1511 (▼15)	4-5, T-2nd East
6	Montreal	1496 (▲9)	4-4, T-2nd East
7	British Columbia	1482	4-4, T-3rd West
8	Edmonton	1455 (▼6)	2-6, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1417 (▼17)	2-7, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup.  They win in 39% of our simulations.  Toronto is now the most likely team from the East to win, with a 19% chance.  In fact, the second, third, and fourth most likely teams to win all come from the East.  Calgary has been moving up in the rankings, but we still only give them a 6% chance of winning it all.  It’s tough playing in the same division as Winnipeg!  Overall, we’re giving Western teams a 58% chance of winning the Grey Cup.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1604	39% (▲3)
2 (▲1)	Toronto	1517	19% (▲6)
3 (▼1)	Hamilton	1511	12% (▼8)
4 (▲1)	Montreal	1496	10% (▲2)
5 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1526	9% (▼3)
6 (▲1)	Calgary	1515	6% (▲2)
7 (▼1)	British Columbia	1482	4%
8 (▲1)	Edmonton	1455	1%
9 (▼1)	Ottawa	1417	<1% (▼2)

Our Full Predictions

Winnipeg has clinched a playoff spot, while it is now impossible for Edmonton to win the West Division.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 8-1, 1st in West	1604	✔	>99%	99%	99%	65%	39%
Toronto 6-3, 1st in East	1517	99%	91%	71%	86%	47%	19%
Hamilton 4-5, T-2nd in East	1511	85%	57%	14%	52%	25%	12%
Montreal 4-4, T-2nd in East	1496	85%	50%	15%	49%	23%	10%
Saskatchewan 5-4, 2nd in West	1526	86%	51%	<1%	46%	17%	9%
Calgary 4-5, T-3rd in West	1515	62%	28%	1%	32%	12%	6%
British Columbia 4-4, T-3rd in West	1482	64%	20%	<1%	28%	9%	4%
Edmonton 2-6, 5th in West	1455	12%	2%	—	5%	2%	1%
Ottawa 2-7, 4th in East	1417	6%	2%	<1%	3%	1%	<1%

Week 11 Game Predictions

Friday: Winnipeg (63%) at Edmonton (36%)
Saturday: Montreal (53%) at Ottawa (46%)
Saturday: Calgary (48%) at British Columbia (51%)

 

I’ve been away from my computer for a few weeks, so I’m a little behind on my CFL Power Ratings.  But, in the interests of maintaining consistency, I’m catching up with all the reports.  Anyways, here goes…

A Tuesday night game in the CFL?  Strange, but in a high-scoring contest, the last place in the East Ottawa RedBlacks defeated the last place in the West Edmonton Elks, 34-24.  Ottawa’s rookie quarterback Caleb Evans made his CFL start, and threw three touchdown passes.  Punt returner DeVonte Dedmon scored another touchdown on a punt return.  Despite passing for 334 yards and two touchdowns, QB Taylor Cornelius couldn’t lead the Elks to victory.

The second game of the week featured the top-ranked Winnipeg Blue Bombers visiting the BC Lions on Friday night.  Unsurprisingly, Winnipeg dominated, beating BC 30-9.  Winnipeg QB Zach Collaros completed 28 of 33 passes, throwing for 417 yards and two touchdowns.  Yes, 417 yards!!!  Kenny Lawler caught 12 of those passes for 205 yards.  The Winnipeg defense sacked Lions’ quarterback Michael Reilly five times.

Saturday saw two games being played.  In the upset of the week, Montreal edged Hamilton 23-20 in overtime.  Montreal overcame a 17-3 deficit in the 4th quarter, and scored on their final drive of regulation time, including converting two 3rd down situations, including a 3rd-and-20 on which they took the lead 20-17.  But, Hamilton kicker Taylor Bertolet put through a 55-yard field goal as time ran out to send the game to overtime.  In overtime, Hamilton fumbled the ball with Montreal recovering to end the first drive, and on the second, Montreal kicked a 36 yard field goal to take the victory.

In the final game of the week, Calgary held off Saskatchewan to win 23-17.  Trailing 23-14, the Riders kicked a field goal with 1:46 left to cut the lead to 6.  On the ensuing kickoff, Saskatchewan was able to recover the kick, but the play was called back because of an illegal interference call.  On the re-do, they recovered again!  Needing a touchdown, they marched down to the Calgary 41, but on a 3rd-and-10 pass, Calgary intercepted on their own 5 yard line and were able to run out the clock for the victory.

Week 9 Results

Edmonton 24  at Ottawa 34
Winnipeg 30  at British Columbia 9
Montreal 23  at Hamilton 20
Saskatchewan 17  at Calgary 23

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was no change in the top 3 teams this week, but Winnipeg expands their claim to best in the league, as they’ve now got a 55 point lead of McDonald CFL Power Rating points.  Calgary has moved up to 4th place, just one point below the magic 1500 good/bad point.  Despite their win this week, Ottawa remains the lowest team in our rankings.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1597 (▲11)	7-1, 1st West
2	Saskatchewan	1542 (▼13)	5-3, 2nd West
3	Hamilton	1526 (▼17)	4-4, T-1st East
4 (▲2)	Calgary	1499 (▲13)	3-5, 4th West
5 (▼1)	Toronto	1493	4-3, T-1st East
6 (▲2)	Montreal	1487 (▲17)	3-4, 3rd East
7 (▼3)	British Columbia	1482 (▼11)	4-4, 3rd West
8 (▼1)	Edmonton	1461 (▼12)	2-5, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1434 (▲13)	2-5, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg continues to be the team with the greatest chance of winning the Grey Cup, with a 36% chance.  Hamilton is the most-likely team in the East, with a 20% chance, although that’s down 6 percentage points from last week.  Beyond those two, there was lots of shuffling of teams, with Montreal (8% chance) and Calgary (4%) chance both up 3% from last week.  We’ve also calculated a 56% chance of a Western team winning the Cup.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1597	36% (▲7)
2	Hamilton	1526	20% (▼6)
3 (▲1)	Toronto	1493	13% (▲1)
4 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1542	12% (▼3)
5 (▲1)	Montreal	1487	8% (▲3)
6 (▼1)	British Columbia	1482	4% (▼2)
7 (▲1)	Calgary	1499	4% (▲3)
8 (▲1)	Ottawa	1434	2% (▲1)
9 (▼2)	Edmonton	1461	1% (▼1)

Our Full Predictions

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 7-1, 1st in West	1597	>99%	99%	95%	98%	62%	36%
Hamilton 4-4, T-1st in East	1526	93%	78%	44%	72%	40%	20%
Toronto 4-3, T-1st in East	1493	89%	69%	40%	64%	32%	13%
Saskatchewan 5-3, 2nd in West	1542	93%	72%	4%	57%	22%	12%
Montreal 3-4, 3rd in East	1487	74%	42%	13%	43%	19%	8%
British Columbia 4-4, 3rd in West	1482	69%	12%	1%	27%	9%	4%
Calgary 3-5, 4th in West	1499	40%	12%	<1%	19%	7%	4%
Ottawa 2-5, 4th in East	1434	25%	11%	3%	13%	5%	2%
Edmonton 2-5, 5th in West	1461	17%	4%	<1%	7%	3%	1%

Week 10 Game Predictions

Wednesday: Ottawa (35%) at Toronto (64%)
Friday: Edmonton (26%) at Winnipeg (73%)
Saturday: Calgary (37%) at Saskatchewan (62%)
Monday: Ottawa (36%) at Montreal (63%)
Monday: Toronto (38%) at Hamilton (61%)