While preparing last week’s McDonald CFL Power Ratings report, I thought, “you know, other than Winnipeg, the teams this year just aren’t that good, and the games really haven’t been that exciting.” During the week, I ran across a couple articles that were able to make that point much better than me. Regina Leader-Post’s Rob Vanstone, a guy around my age, a fellow Mets fan, and someone who has played Strat-O-Matic Football, summed it up beautifully in the article “All is not swell in the once-exciting CFL.” I’ve gotta meet this guy some time. Meanwhile, over at 3DownNation, Joel Gasson rightly wrote that “The CFL has an entertainment problem and there’s no easy solution.” But anyways, on to this week’s games.
There were four games again this weekend, two on Friday and two on Saturday. In the first game Friday, up-and-coming Calgary travelled to Ottawa to face the bottom-ranked RedBlacks. Calgary was coming off a loss to Saskatchewan last week, and looked to resume their run for the playoffs. Despite being behind 10-3 after the first quarter, Calgary prevailed over Ottawa 26-13. For the winning side, running back Ka’Deem Carey rushed for 103 yards and one touchdown, and quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell threw for 242 yards, enough to give him 30,000 career passing yards in the CFL. The Calgary defense also sacked the Ottawa quarterback five times. Calgary has now won four of their last five games.
In the late game, Hamilton thumped Edmonton 39-23. Hamilton led 27-4 at the half, in which quarterback Jeremiah Masoli passed for 287 yards and three touchdowns. In just the first half!!! Masoli ended up with a total of 357 passing yards for the game. Hamilton running back Don Jackson ran for 120 yards. For the Elks, Taylor Cornelius passed for 251 yards and Dakota Prukop, who carried the ball eight times for a total of 9 yards, scored two rushing touchdowns in a losing effort.
Saturday’s first game saw British Columbia visit Toronto. On a stormy day, Toronto outlasted BC 31-29 in overtime. With 5:30 left in the game, Toronto led 23-21, with BC 3rd and 4 from the Toronto 37. Attempting a 50 yard field goal, BC’s Jimmy Camacho missed, but the ball went through the end zone for a rouge (perhaps football’s most exciting play), cutting the Toronto lead to 1. There followed a 3-and-out for Toronto, then a 3-and-out for BC, and another 3-and-out for Toronto. On the next possession, BC moved the ball down to Toronto 42, where Camacho again tried another 50 yard field goal. This time, it was blocked, and Toronto took over the ball on their own 13 with 45 seconds left and a one point lead. Attempting to run out the clock, they were only able to run it down to 18 seconds before having to punt. BC returned the punt to the Toronto 37 with 7 seconds left. They were able to complete a pass to the 30 with 3 seconds left, at which point Camacho attempted a 37 yard field goal. He missed again, the ball sailed through the end zone for a rouge, and the game went to overtime. In overtime, Toronto scored a touchdown on their possession and followed it up with a two-point convert. On BC’s possession, they also scored a touchdown, but failed the two-point convert attempt, and Toronto ended up with the win.
In the last game of the weekend, I’m not sure if it was an impressive defensive showing by both teams, or a game of sputtering offenses, but Saskatchewan beat Montreal 19-14. At the half, Saskatchewan led 7-3, having scored on their last possession of the half. After 4 more field goals and a rouge, the game progressed to a 16-7 Saskatchewan lead. Montreal finally found the endzone with 1:27 left in the game to cut the lead to 2, but after yet another Rider field goal, Montreal wasn’t able to score again. In the win, Saskatchewan’s defense recorded five sacks, while Montreal got six of their own.
Week 13 Results
Calgary 26 at Ottawa 13
Hamilton 39 at Edmonton 23
British Columbia 29 at Toronto 31
Saskatchewan 19 at Montreal 14
McDonald CFL Power Ratings
There weren’t a lot of changes in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings this week. Winnipeg and Saskatchewan remain the top two teams, and British Columbia, Edmonton, and Ottawa are the bottom three. With Montreal’s loss to Saskatchewan, they have dropped from 3rd all the way down to 6th, and as a result, Hamilton, Calgary, and Toronto, all winners this week, have moved up one spot each.
| Ranking | Team | Rating | Record |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1619 | 10-1, 1st West |
| 2 | Saskatchewan | 1554 (▲14) | 7-4, 2nd West |
| 3 (▲1) | Hamilton | 1530 (▲12) | 6-5, T-2nd East |
| 4 (▲1) | Calgary | 1524 (▲10) | 6-6, 3rd West |
| 5 (▲1) | Toronto | 1515 (▲9) | 7-4, 1st East |
| 6 (▼3) | Montreal | 1506 (▼13) | 6-5, T-2nd East |
| 7 | British Columbia | 1454 (▼9) | 4-7, 4th West |
| 8 | Edmonton | 1434 (▼12) | 2-8, 5th West |
| 9 | Ottawa | 1389 (▼10) | 2-10, 4th East |
Grey Cup Predictions
Winnipeg, by far the best team in the league this year, continue to be the favourites to win the Grey Cup. Having clinched first place in the West, they advance straight to the West Final. A win there puts them in the Grey Cup. Hamilton, who will host the Grey Cup this year, are now second favourite to win it all, at 17%, which is the same as Toronto, but when you get down to percentage points, we put Hamilton ahead (17.2% vs. 16.9%). Saskatchewan improved their chances slightly with their win over Montreal, but will need to win in the Western Semi-Final, then beat Winnipeg in the Western Final to reach the big game. Although Edmonton hasn’t been eliminated from the playoffs yet, their chances of making it are very slim, and we’ve calculated that they have a 0.006% chance of winning the Grey Cup!
| Grey Cup Ranking | Team | Rating | Win Grey Cup |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1619 | 39% (▼2) |
| 2 (▲2) | Hamilton | 1530 | 17% (▲3) |
| 3 | Toronto | 1515 | 17% (▲3) |
| 4 (▲1) | Saskatchewan | 1554 | 11% (▲1) |
| 5 (▼3) | Montreal | 1506 | 9% (▼6) |
| 6 | Calgary | 1524 | 6% (▲1) |
| 7 | British Columbia | 1454 | 1% (▼1) |
| 8 | Edmonton | 1434 | <1% |
| 9 | Ottawa | 1389 | — |
Our Full Predictions
This week, both Toronto and Saskatchewan clinched playoff spots. Hamilton and Montreal are very likely to also make the playoffs in the East (99% chance for each). It will be likely that Calgary will also make the playoffs, at 78%, with British Columbia at only a 24% likelihood. Edmonton’s chances are extremely slim, but they haven’t been eliminated yet. That could come if they lose to Saskatchewan this week.
| Team | Rating | Make Playoffs | Host Playoff Game | Win Division | Make Division Final | Make Grey Cup | Win Grey Cup |
| Winnipeg 10-1, 1st in West |
1619 | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | 66% | 39% |
| Hamilton 6-5, T-2nd in East |
1530 | 99% | 73% | 29% | 67% | 35% | 17% |
| Toronto 7-4, 1st in East |
1515 | ✔ | 86% | 63% | 81% | 43% | 17% |
| Saskatchewan 7-4, 2nd in West |
1554 | ✔ | 89% | — | 60% | 21% | 11% |
| Montreal 6-5, T-2nd in East |
1506 | 99% | 40% | 9% | 51% | 22% | 9% |
| Calgary 6-6, 3rd in West |
1524 | 78% | 11% | — | 33% | 11% | 6% |
| British Columbia 4-7, 4th in West |
1454 | 24% | — | — | 8% | 2% | 1% |
| Edmonton 2-8, 5th in West |
1434 | <1% | — | — | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ottawa 2-10, 4th in East |
1389 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Week 14 Game Predictions
Friday: British Columbia (33%) at Hamilton (66%)
Friday: Saskatchewan (59%) at Edmonton (40%)
Saturday: Toronto (60%) at Ottawa (39%)
Saturday: Montreal (28%) at Winnipeg (71%)
