After 7 weeks into the season, we’re finally confident that the uncertainty in our predictions due to the cancelled 2020 season has worked itself out, and we’ve got a good feeling about our ratings and predictions now. This week’s games went pretty much as expected, and there wasn’t a lot of movement with our rankings or probabilities.
Once again, there were four games this week, but this time with two games on Friday and two on Saturday. In Friday’s early game, Hamilton quarterback David Watford got the win in his first career start, with a 23-17 victory at home over Calgary. The top scorer in the game, though, was Hamilton kicker Taylor Bertolet, who booted 5 field goals.
In the second game on Friday, Saskatchewan snapped their two game losing streak with a decisive 30-16 victory over the visiting Toronto Argonauts. The Riders’ William Powell rushed for 122 yards, while quarterback Cody Fajardo passed for two touchdowns and ran in another for the victory. Despite losing their previous two games, Saskatchewan is now 4-0 against teams that aren’t Winnipeg.
In the first game on Saturday, visiting British Columbia surprised Montreal 27-18. Michael Reilly passed for 308 yards and two touchdowns for the Lions, while the BC defense set an all-time single-game record with 13 knockdowns. I didn’t even know that was a statistic that was tracked.
And rounding out the week, top-ranked Winnipeg hammered the Elks in Edmonton 37-22. Although they were down 16-15 in the third quarter, Winnipeg scored two defensive touchdowns, one on a pick-six on the Edmonton 20 yard line, and another on a fumble recovery on the Edmonton 3. Winnipeg never looked back after that.
Week 7 Results
Calgary 17 at Hamilton 23
Toronto 16 at Saskatchewan 30
British Columbia 27 at Montreal 18
Winnipeg 37 at Edmonton 22
McDonald CFL Power Ratings
Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings. With their 6-1 record, they have increased their lead in the Power Ratings over second-ranked Saskatchewan. Hamilton, in a tie for 1st in the East, is the top-ranked Eastern team. With their road upset over Montreal, British Columbia’s rating has risen above the average 1500 rating, and moved them into 4th in the rankings. Although Ottawa is the bottom ranked team, they closed the gap on teams 5 through 8 by not playing! Sadly, that might be the best way for Ottawa to move up in the rankings.
| Ranking | Team | Rating | Record |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1586 (▲11) | 6-1, 1st West |
| 2 | Saskatchewan | 1542 (▲9) | 4-2, T-2nd West |
| 3 | Hamilton | 1532 (▲10) | 3-3, T-1st East |
| 4 (▲2) | British Columbia | 1506 (▲14) | 4-2, T-2nd West |
| 5 (▼1) | Calgary | 1486 (▼10) | 2-5, T-4th West |
| 6 (▲1) | Toronto | 1482 (▼9) | 3-3, T-1st East |
| 7 (▼2) | Montreal | 1481 (▼14) | 2-3, 3rd East |
| 8 | Edmonton | 1473 (▼11) | 2-4, T-4th West |
| 9 | Ottawa | 1432 | 1-4, 4th East |
Grey Cup Predictions
Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, and we’re giving them a season-high 30% chance of winning it all. In fact, we’ve calculated that they have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs! Hamilton remains the Eastern team with the best chance of winning, with a 23% chance. Ottawa, Edmonton, and Calgary all have extremely thin chances of winning, as we’re giving them a 3%, 3%, and 2% chance of winning.
Our numbers show that there is a 56% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, versus 44% for an Eastern team.
| Grey Cup Ranking | Team | Rating | Win Grey Cup |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1586 | 30% (▲2) |
| 2 | Hamilton | 1532 | 23% (▲5) |
| 3 (▲2) | Saskatchewan | 1542 | 12% (▲1) |
| 4 (▼1) | Toronto | 1482 | 10% (▼2) |
| 5 (▲1) | British Columbia | 1506 | 9% (▲1) |
| 6 (▼2) | Montreal | 1481 | 8% (▼4) |
| 7 (▲2) | Ottawa | 1432 | 3% (▲1) |
| 8 (▼1) | Edmonton | 1473 | 3% (▼2) |
| 9 (▼1) | Calgary | 1486 | 2% (▼2) |
Our Full Predictions
| Team | Rating | Make Playoffs | Host Playoff Game | Win Division | Make Division Final | Make Grey Cup | Win Grey Cup |
| Winnipeg
6-1 |
1586 | >99% | 93% | 75% | 89% | 54% | 30% |
| Hamilton
3-3 |
1532 | 90% | 79% | 51% | 73% | 43% | 23% |
| Saskatchewan
4-2 |
1542 | 89% | 52% | 9% | 52% | 23% | 12% |
| Toronto
3-3 |
1482 | 80% | 60% | 28% | 54% | 25% | 10% |
| British Columbia
4-2 |
1506 | 88% | 43% | 14% | 46% | 19% | 9% |
| Montreal
2-3 |
1481 | 67% | 43% | 15% | 41% | 19% | 8% |
| Ottawa
1-4 |
1432 | 31% | 18% | 6% | 18% | 7% | 3% |
| Edmonton
2-4 |
1473 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 14% | 5% | 3% |
| Calgary
2-5 |
1486 | 26% | 5% | <1% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
Week 8 Game Predictions
Hamilton (56%) at Ottawa (43%)
Montreal (43%) at Toronto (56%)
Saskatchewan (48%) at British Columbia (51%)