McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 1

Ah, the CFL is back!  Week 1 provided a number of interesting games, and we see our ratings start to move.  We expect that after about 6 games, they’ll be pretty accurate, but for now, there’s still uncertainty built in.  That will continue to shake out over the next few weeks.

Thursday’s opening game featured a rematch of the 2019 Grey Cup (there was no Grey Cup in 2020, nor season, due to the COVID-19 pandemic), with Hamilton visiting Winnipeg.  Hamilton scored a touchdown on their first possession, but didn’t score again all game, as Winnipeg prevailed 19-6.

In the Friday night game, Saskatchewan hosted British Columbia.  Saskatchewan scored touchdowns on their first 3 possessions to take a 21-0 lead, and led by as much as 31-0 in the first half.  But the second half was a completely different game, with BC outscoring the Riders 29-2 the rest of the way, but Saskatchewan held on to win 33-29.  The star of the game had to be Saskatchewan punter Jon Ryan, a native of Regina and Super Bowl winner with the Seattle Seahawks, who scored two rouges (arguably the most exciting play in Canadian football!) on punts of 67 and 77 yards!  Also of note, BC placekicker Tarkeru Yamasaki became the first Japanese-born player to score a point in the CFL.  Interestingly enough, BC’s other kicker, punter Jake Ford, was born in Australia and played Aussie Rules football and rugby growing up.

There were two games on Saturday.  In the early game, Toronto stunned Calgary 23-20.  The Argos scored 11 points in the fourth quarter to come back, and picked off a Stampeder pass with 31 seconds left in the game to quench any hope of a Calgary comeback.

In Saturday’s nightcap, the newly-named Edmonton Elks hosted Ottawa.  In a tight defensive game, Ottawa scored 10 points in the fourth quarter to win 16-12.  On the final play of the game, the Elks scrimmaged from Ottawa’s 17-yard line and completed a pass for 16 yards, being stopped one yard short of the victory.

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg retains their number 1 ranking, while Saskatchewan has moved past Hamilton for 2nd spot.  British Columbia dropped two spots to be the lowest ranked team this week.

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg is now the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, with an 18% chance.  We’re giving a 54% chance of a Western division team winning the league championship, versus a 46% chance of an Eastern team.

Our Full Predictions

Week 2 Game Predictions

British Columbia (37%) at Calgary (62%)
Toronto (34%) at Winnipeg (65%)
Montreal (44%) at Edmonton (55%)
Hamilton (40%) at Saskatchewan (59%)