The McDonald Power Ratings team is back after a short hiatus. We took a break after the NHL playoffs concluded, but now we’re back as the CFL season is about to start. Here’s a brief look at our CFL predictions for this year.
Initial Ratings
Let’s start with a warning about our doubts with our initial ratings. There was no CFL season last year, there have been lots of personnel changes in the league, and this season’s schedule has been shortened to 14 games from 18, so we don’t have a lot of confidence in our initial predictions. As a result, we have adjusted our ratings to account for this uncertainty. We always adjust our initial ratings to decrease the ratings for the better than average teams and increase the ratings for the worse than average teams, but we’ve adjusted by a larger amount than normal this year. As the first few games are played, the ratings will be adjusted appropriately, but for now, here’s our initial ratings to give an indication of how we think the season will go.
|
Ranking |
Team | Rating | 2019 Record |
2019 Playoffs |
|
1 |
Winnipeg | 1534 | 11-7, 3rd West | Won Grey Cup |
|
2 |
Hamilton | 1532 | 15-3, 1st East | Lost Grey Cup |
|
3 |
Saskatchewan | 1530 | 13-5, 1st West | Lost West Final |
|
4 |
Calgary | 1526 | 12-6, 2nd West | Lost West Semi |
| 5 | Edmonton | 1498 | 8-10, 4th West |
Lost East Final |
| 6 | Montreal | 1493 | 10-8, 2nd East |
Lost East Semi |
| 7 | British Columbia | 1477 | 5-13, 5th West |
— |
|
8 |
Toronto | 1464 |
4-14, 3rd East |
— |
| 9 | Ottawa | 1460 | 3-15, 4th East |
— |
Grey Cup Predictions
But how about the chances of winning the Grey Cup? There’s a surprise here!
|
Grey Cup Ranking |
Team | Rating | Win Grey Cup |
| 1 | Hamilton | 1532 |
25% |
|
2 |
Montreal | 1493 | 13% |
| 3 | Saskatchewan | 1530 |
10% |
|
4 |
Winnipeg | 1534 | 9% |
| 5 | Calgary | 1526 |
9% |
|
6 |
Ottawa | 1460 | 9% |
| 7 | Edmonton | 1498 |
9% |
|
8 |
Toronto | 1464 | 9% |
| 9 | British Columbia | 1477 |
8% |
Clearly, it’s an advantage to play in the Eastern division! Last year, Hamilton had the best regular season record in the league, and made it all the way to the Grey Cup. By playing in the weak Eastern division, and 3 of the 4 teams in that division making the playoffs (barring a cross-over, of course), they’ve got a pretty good chance of advancing to the Grey Cup. And if you make it there, you’ve got roughly a 50-50 chance of winning. But, the Grey Cup is being held in Hamilton this year, so that would give them the home field advantage, so we’re giving them a 25% chance of winning it all!
Our Full Predictions
|
Team |
Rating | Make Playoffs | Host Playoff Game | Win Division | Make Division Final | Make Grey Cup |
Win Grey Cup |
|
Hamilton |
1532 | 80% | 67% | 40% | 53% | 40% | 25% |
| Montreal | 1493 | 69% | 54% | 26% | 42% | 27% |
13% |
|
Saskatchewan |
1530 | 72% | 44% | 23% | 50% | 20% | 10% |
| Winnipeg | 1534 | 74% | 48% | 25% | 52% | 20% |
9% |
|
Calgary |
1526 | 72% | 45% | 24% | 51% | 19% | 9% |
| Ottawa | 1460 | 58% | 41% | 18% | 35% | 19% |
9% |
|
Edmonton |
1498 | 62% | 34% | 16% | 44% | 19% | 9% |
| Toronto | 1464 | 56% | 39% | 17% | 34% | 18% |
9% |
|
British Columbia |
1477 | 55% | 28% | 12% | 40% | 19% |
8% |
Week 1 Game Predictions
Hamilton (43%) at Winnipeg (56%)
British Columbia (36%) at Saskatchewan (63%)
Toronto (34%) at Calgary (65%)
Ottawa (38%) at Edmonton (61%)