Month: August 2021

Ah, the CFL is back!  Week 1 provided a number of interesting games, and we see our ratings start to move.  We expect that after about 6 games, they’ll be pretty accurate, but for now, there’s still uncertainty built in.  That will continue to shake out over the next few weeks.

Thursday’s opening game featured a rematch of the 2019 Grey Cup (there was no Grey Cup in 2020, nor season, due to the COVID-19 pandemic), with Hamilton visiting Winnipeg.  Hamilton scored a touchdown on their first possession, but didn’t score again all game, as Winnipeg prevailed 19-6.

In the Friday night game, Saskatchewan hosted British Columbia.  Saskatchewan scored touchdowns on their first 3 possessions to take a 21-0 lead, and led by as much as 31-0 in the first half.  But the second half was a completely different game, with BC outscoring the Riders 29-2 the rest of the way, but Saskatchewan held on to win 33-29.  The star of the game had to be Saskatchewan punter Jon Ryan, a native of Regina and Super Bowl winner with the Seattle Seahawks, who scored two rouges (arguably the most exciting play in Canadian football!) on punts of 67 and 77 yards!  Also of note, BC placekicker Tarkeru Yamasaki became the first Japanese-born player to score a point in the CFL.  Interestingly enough, BC’s other kicker, punter Jake Ford, was born in Australia and played Aussie Rules football and rugby growing up.

There were two games on Saturday.  In the early game, Toronto stunned Calgary 23-20.  The Argos scored 11 points in the fourth quarter to come back, and picked off a Stampeder pass with 31 seconds left in the game to quench any hope of a Calgary comeback.

In Saturday’s nightcap, the newly-named Edmonton Elks hosted Ottawa.  In a tight defensive game, Ottawa scored 10 points in the fourth quarter to win 16-12.  On the final play of the game, the Elks scrimmaged from Ottawa’s 17-yard line and completed a pass for 16 yards, being stopped one yard short of the victory.

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg retains their number 1 ranking, while Saskatchewan has moved past Hamilton for 2nd spot.  British Columbia dropped two spots to be the lowest ranked team this week.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1545 (▲11)	1-0, T-1st West
2 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1539 (▲9)	1-0, T-1st West
3 (▼1)	Hamilton	1521 (▼11)	0-1, 4th East
4	Calgary	1510 (▼16)	0-1, T-3rd West
5 (▲1)	Montreal	1493	0-0, 3rd East
6 (▼1)	Edmonton	1483 (▼15)	0-1, T-3rd West
7 (▲1)	Toronto	1481 (▲17)	1-0, T-1st East
8 (▲1)	Ottawa	1476 (▲16)	1-0, T-1st East
9 (▼2)	British Columbia	1468 (▼9)	0-1, T-3rd West

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg is now the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, with an 18% chance.  We’re giving a 54% chance of a Western division team winning the league championship, versus a 46% chance of an Eastern team.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1 (▲3)	Winnipeg	1545	18% (▲9)
2 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1539	16% (▲6)
3 (▼2)	Hamilton	1521	16% (▼9)
4 (▼2)	Montreal	1493	11% (▼2)
5 (▲3)	Toronto	1481	10% (▲1)
6	Ottawa	1476	10% (▲1)
7 (▼2)	Calgary	1510	9%
8 (▼1)	Edmonton	1483	6% (▼3)
9	British Columbia	1468	5% (▼3)

Our Full Predictions

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg (1-0) T-1st West	1545	84%	63%	37%	62%	33%	18%
Saskatchewan (1-0) T-1st in West	1539	81%	58%	32%	58%	30%	16%
Hamilton (0-1) 4th in East	1521	71%	52%	26%	51%	28%	16%
Montreal (0-0) 3rd in East	1493	66%	47%	23%	45%	23%	11%
Toronto (1-0) T-1st in East	1481	71%	50%	25%	47%	23%	10%
Ottawa (1-0) T-1st in East	1476	72%	52%	26%	48%	23%	10%
Calgary (0-1) T-3rd in West	1510	59%	33%	14%	36%	17%	9%
Edmonton (0-1) T-3rd in West	1483	48%	24%	9%	27%	12%	6%
British Columbia (0-1) T-3rd in West	1468	48%	22%	8%	25%	10%	5%

Week 2 Game Predictions

British Columbia (37%) at Calgary (62%)
Toronto (34%) at Winnipeg (65%)
Montreal (44%) at Edmonton (55%)
Hamilton (40%) at Saskatchewan (59%)

The McDonald Power Ratings team is back after a short hiatus.  We took a break after the NHL playoffs concluded, but now we’re back as the CFL season is about to start.  Here’s a brief look at our CFL predictions for this year.

Initial Ratings

Let’s start with a warning about our doubts with our initial ratings.  There was no CFL season last year, there have been lots of personnel changes in the league, and this season’s schedule has been shortened to 14 games from 18, so we don’t have a lot of confidence in our initial predictions.  As a result, we have adjusted our ratings to account for this uncertainty.  We always adjust our initial ratings to decrease the ratings for the better than average teams and increase the ratings for the worse than average teams, but we’ve adjusted by a larger amount than normal this year.  As the first few games are played, the ratings will be adjusted appropriately, but for now, here’s our initial ratings to give an indication of how we think the season will go.

Ranking	Team	Rating	2019 Record	2019 Playoffs
1	Winnipeg	1534	11-7, 3rd West	Won Grey Cup
2	Hamilton	1532	15-3, 1st East	Lost Grey Cup
3	Saskatchewan	1530	13-5, 1st West	Lost West Final
4	Calgary	1526	12-6, 2nd West	Lost West Semi
5	Edmonton	1498	8-10, 4th West	Lost East Final
6	Montreal	1493	10-8, 2nd East	Lost East Semi
7	British Columbia	1477	5-13, 5th West	—
8	Toronto	1464	4-14, 3rd East	—
9	Ottawa	1460	3-15, 4th East	—

Grey Cup Predictions

But how about the chances of winning the Grey Cup?  There’s a surprise here!

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Hamilton	1532	25%
2	Montreal	1493	13%
3	Saskatchewan	1530	10%
4	Winnipeg	1534	9%
5	Calgary	1526	9%
6	Ottawa	1460	9%
7	Edmonton	1498	9%
8	Toronto	1464	9%
9	British Columbia	1477	8%

Clearly, it’s an advantage to play in the Eastern division!  Last year, Hamilton had the best regular season record in the league, and made it all the way to the Grey Cup.  By playing in the weak Eastern division, and 3 of the 4 teams in that division making the playoffs (barring a cross-over, of course), they’ve got a pretty good chance of advancing to the Grey Cup.  And if you make it there, you’ve got roughly a 50-50 chance of winning.  But, the Grey Cup is being held in Hamilton this year, so that would give them the home field advantage, so we’re giving them a 25% chance of winning it all!

Our Full Predictions

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Hamilton	1532	80%	67%	40%	53%	40%	25%
Montreal	1493	69%	54%	26%	42%	27%	13%
Saskatchewan	1530	72%	44%	23%	50%	20%	10%
Winnipeg	1534	74%	48%	25%	52%	20%	9%
Calgary	1526	72%	45%	24%	51%	19%	9%
Ottawa	1460	58%	41%	18%	35%	19%	9%
Edmonton	1498	62%	34%	16%	44%	19%	9%
Toronto	1464	56%	39%	17%	34%	18%	9%
British Columbia	1477	55%	28%	12%	40%	19%	8%

Week 1 Game Predictions

Hamilton (43%) at Winnipeg (56%)
British Columbia (36%) at Saskatchewan (63%)
Toronto (34%) at Calgary (65%)
Ottawa (38%) at Edmonton (61%)