Facing elimination at home, the Montreal Canadiens lived to play another game after defeating Tampa Bay 3-2 in overtime last night.  Montreal took the lead 1-0 in the first period, and held that lead until late in the second when Tampa Bay scored.  It was a tight game, but Alex Romanov scored for Montreal at 8:48 of the third period to take the lead.  Romanov scored 7 seconds into his first shift of the Stanley Cup Finals!  Tampa Bay turned on the pressure at that point, and finally managed to beat Carey Price with 6:12 left in the third period.  Tampa Bay continued heavy pressure, dominating play, and then the Canadien’s Shea Weber took a 4 minute minor penalty for a high stick that drew blood with 1:01 left on the clock.  Montreal’s penalty killers, and Carey Price, did their job to hold off Tampa Bay for the rest of the period and the first three minutes of overtime to kill off the penalty.  Finally, Josh Anderson made a masterful defensive play to break out, and made a diving shot off a Cole Caufield rebound to lead the Canadiens to an overtime victory!

Tampa Bay leads the series 3 games to 1.  Despite the loss, we’re still giving Tampa Bay a 92.6% chance of winning the series, and a 64.0% chance of finishing it off in Game 5 in Tampa Bay on Wednesday.

Yesterday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Tampa Bay 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
• Tampa Bay now has an 92.6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 96.7%

Series schedule:

• Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
• Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3
• Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay
• Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
• Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 92.6% chance of winning (▼4.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼55.0)
  • In 5 games: 64.0% (▲35.2)
  • In 6 games: 18.0% (▲9.9)
  • In 7 games: 10.6% (▲5.8)
• Montreal has a 7.4% chance of winning (▲4.1)
  • In 7 games: 7.4% (▲9.7)
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Wednesday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal at Tampa Bay

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
• Tampa Bay has an 92.6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 93%, Montreal 7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1581
• Montreal: 1544

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
  • Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
  • Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

• Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
• Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3
• Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay
• Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
• Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 92.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 64.0%
  • In 6 games: 18.0%
  • In 7 games: 10.6%
• Montreal has a 7.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.4%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%